Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal dynamic of the relationship between the parasitic isopod Aporobopyrus curtatus (Crustacea: Isopoda: Bopyridae) and the anomuran crab Petrolisthes armatus (Crustacea: Decapoda: Porcellanidae) in southern Brazil

The prevalence of the parasite Aporobopyrus curtatus in Petrolisthes armatus from southern Brazil was determined, and the effect the parasite had on host reproduction was evaluated. Of all 775 crabs sampled in Araca region from March 2005 to July 2006, 3.2% presented bopyrid parasites. All the parasitized individuals had one branchial chamber occupied by two mature parasites, with no preference for the right or left chamber. Male and female hosts were infested in equal proportions. Parasitized juveniles, large individuals and ovigerous females were not found in our study. The absence of parasitized ovigerous females seems to be insufficient evidence to support the hypothesis of parasitic castration and would require a histological study to confirm their reproductive death. The percentage of infestation observed in our study (3.1%) is lower than the one found in other studies and it could indicate the existence of factor(s) regulating the density of A. curtatus in the Araca region. At least in this population, the low but constant presence of the bopyrid A. curtatus population did not appear to have a negative effect on the porcellanid population, and parasitized individuals did not play a significant role in the natural history of P. armatus.

Dynamic susceptibility investigation of maghemite nanoparticles incorporated in bovine serum albumin template

Room-temperature measurements of the magnetic susceptibility of Bovine Serum Albumin-based nanocapsules (50 to 300 nm in size) loaded with different amounts of maghemite nanoparticles (7.6 nm average diameter) have been carried out in this study The field (H) dependence of the imaginary peak susceptibility (f(P)) of the nanocomposite samples was investigated in the range of 0 to 4 kOe. From the analysis of the f(P) x H curves the concentration (N) dependence of the effective maghemite magnetocrystalline energy barrier (E) was obtained. Analysis of the E x N data was performed using a modified Morup-Tronc [Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 3278 (1994)] model, from which a huge contribution from the magnetocrystalline surface anisotropy was observed.

Credit assignment: The memory representation of dynamic task events

The experiment examined the influence of memory for prior instances on aircraft conflict detection. Participants saw pairs of similar aircraft repeatedly conflict with each other. Performance improvements suggest that participants credited the conflict status of familiar aircraft pairs to repeated static features such as speed, and dynamic features such as aircraft relative position. Participants missed conflicts when a conflict pair resembled a pair that had repeatedly passed safely. Participants either did not attend to, or interpret, the bearing of aircraft correctly as a result of false memory-based expectations. Implications for instance models and situational awareness in dynamic systems are discussed.

Ultrasound imaging in rehabilitation: Just a fad?

Real-time ultrasound imaging provides an unrivalled opportunity to observe muscle morphology and contraction. This has obvious potential for clinical practice and the tool is beginning to be adopted into physical therapy. The implementation of ultrasound imaging has become particularly widespread for assessment of size and activation of deep trunk muscles, such as the transversus abdominis and lumbar multifidus, and for assessment of the pelvic floor muscles. The obvious benefit for these areas is that ultrasound permits observation of muscles that are difficult to assess through noninvasive means. This realization of the clinical potential of ultrasound imaging has been paralleled by an explosion of clinical and physiological research. However, despite the enthusiasm for utilization of ultrasound imaging, a question that is critical to address is whether ultrasound can actually improve rehabilitation.

The systematic use of intraoperative vascular Doppler ultrasound during microsurgical subinguinal varicocelectomy improves precise identification and preservation of testicular blood supply

Objective: To evaluate the impact of systematic use of intraoperative Doppler ultrasound during microsurgical subinguinal varicocele repair. Design: Prospective clinical study. Setting: Andrology laboratory and male infertility section of the urology department of a tertiary care hospital. Patient(s): Two hundred and thirteen men with clinical varicocele. Intervention(s): Subinguinal microsurgical varicocele ligation using an intraoperative vascular Doppler flow detector. Main Outcome Measure(s): Number of veins ligated, lymphatic spared, arteries identified or accidentally ligated. Result(s): A statistically significant greater number of arteries were identified and preserved when intraoperative vascular Doppler was used. In addition, the average number of internal spermatic veins ligated was statistically significantly greater in the same group. Accidental artery ligation occurred in two cases (1.1%) in which the Doppler was not applied. There was no statistically significant difference in number of lymphatics spared between groups. Conclusion(s): Our findings showed that concomitant use of intraoperative vascular Doppler during microsurgical varicocelectomy allows more arterial branches to be preserved, and more internal spermatic veins are likely to be ligated. This device should be considered an attractive tool to improve surgical outcomes and safety. (Fertil Steril (R) 2010; 93: 2396-9. (C)2010 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)

Dynamic strain measurement using piezoelectric polymer film

Piezoelectric polymers have been used to form the basis of dynamic strain gauges for the detection of stress waves. The linearity of response was tested using a split Hopkinson pressure bar arrangement. The results obtained illustrate the effectiveness of piezoelectric film strain gauges in the measurement of axial stress waves.

Analysis of dynamic process models for structural insight and model reduction .1. Structural identification measures

An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Analysis of dynamic models for structural insight and model reduction .2. A multi-stage compressor shutdown case-study

In this second paper, the three structural measures which have been developed are used in the modelling of a three stage centrifugal synthesis gas compressor. The goal of this case study is to determine the essential mathematical structure which must be incorporated into the compressor model to accurately model the shutdown of this system. A simple, accurate and functional model of the system is created via three structural measures. It was found that the model can be correctly reduced into its basic modes and that the order of the differential system can be reduced from 51(st) to 20(th). Of the 31 differential equational 21 reduce to algebraic relations, 8 become constants and 2 can be deleted thereby increasing the algebraic set from 70 to 91 equations. An interpretation is also obtained as to which physical phenomena are dominating the dynamics of the compressor add whether the compressor will enter surge during the shutdown. Comparisons of the reduced model performance against the full model are given, showing the accuracy and applicability of the approach. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Is the ultrasound-estimated bladder weight a reliable method for evaluating bladder outlet obstruction?

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the correlation between ultrasound-estimated bladder weight (UEBW) in patients with different degrees of bladder outlet obstruction (BOO). METHODS We evaluated 50 consecutive non-neurogenic male patients with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) referred to urodynamic study (UDS). All patients self-answered the International Prostate Score Symptoms (IPSS) questionnaire. After the UDS, the bladder was filled with 150 mL to determine UEBW. Patients with a bladder capacity under 150 mL, a previous history of prostate surgery or pelvic irradiation, an IPSS score <8, a bladder stone or urinary tract infection were excluded. After a pressure-flow study, the Schafer linear passive urethral resistance relation nomogram was plotted to determine the grade of obstruction: Grades I-II/VI were defined as mild obstruction, Grades III-IV/VI as moderate obstruction, and Grades V-VI/VI as severe obstruction. RESULTS The UEBW was 51.7 +/- 26.9, 54.1 +/- 30.0 and 54.8 +/- 28.2 in patients with mild, moderate and severe BOO, respectively (P = 0.130). The UEBW allowed us to define four groups: (i) UEBW < 35 g; (ii) 35 g <= UEBW < 50 g; (iii) 50 g <= UEBW < 70 g; and (4) UEBW >= 70 g. We did not find any differences in age, prostate weight, IPSS, PVR, cystometric bladder capacity, presence of detrusor overactive and degree of obstruction in the aforementioned groups. CONCLUSION Despite the fact that some studies have emphasized the value of UEBW as an efficient non-invasive method for evaluating lower urinary tract obstruction, our study suggests that UEBW does not present any individual correlation with LUTS or objective measurements of BOO.

A Dynamic Model of Hand-and-Foot Syndrome in Patients Receiving Capecitabine

For the purpose of developing a longitudinal model to predict hand-and-foot syndrome (HFS) dynamics in patients receiving capecitabine, data from two large phase III studies were used. Of 595 patients in the capecitabine arms, 400 patients were randomly selected to build the model, and the other 195 were assigned for model validation. A score for risk of developing HFS was modeled using the proportional odds model, a sigmoidal maximum effect model driven by capecitabine accumulation as estimated through a kinetic-pharmacodynamic model and a Markov process. The lower the calculated creatinine clearance value at inclusion, the higher was the risk of HFS. Model validation was performed by visual and statistical predictive checks. The predictive dynamic model of HFS in patients receiving capecitabine allows the prediction of toxicity risk based on cumulative capecitabine dose and previous HFS grade. This dose-toxicity model will be useful in developing Bayesian individual treatment adaptations and may be of use in the clinic.

Transvaginal ultrasound for diagnosis of deeply infiltrating endometriosis

Deeply infiltrating endometriosis is the clinical form of the disease that is generally associated with conditions of more intense pain and may require more complex surgical management, consequently resulting in greater risks to the patient. In recent years, various investigators have confirmed the usefulness of methods such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), transrectal ultrasound and transvaginal ultrasound (TVUS) for the diagnosis of deep endometriotic lesions. The objectives of the present study are to describe the method used to perform TVUS for the detection of deeply infiltrating endometriosis, and to discuss the clinical benefits that the data obtained may offer clinicians providing care for patients suspected of having this type of endometriosis. (C) 2008 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ultrasound detection rate of single umbilical artery in the first trimester of pregnancy

Objective To determine accuracy of first trimester detection of single umbilical artery (SUA). Methods The number of vessels in the umbilical cord was examined in a prospective cohort of 779 singleton, low-risk, unselected pregnancies, in the first (11-13 weeks) and second (17-24 weeks) trimesters, using both power and color Doppler and after delivery, by placental histopathologic exam. Concordance between first and second trimester findings to postnatal diagnoses was compared by calculating kappa coefficients. Results There was medium concordance between the findings in the first trimester and the postnatal diagnoses (kappa = 0.52) and high concordance (kappa = 0.89) for the second trimester scan. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the findings in the first trimester were 57.1, 98.9, 50.0 and 99.2% and for the second trimester were 86.6, 99.9, 92.9 and 99.7%. Conclusion Sensitivity and positive predictive value of first trimester scan to identify an isolated SUA in a prospective unselected population was poor. Diagnosis of isolated SUA as well as a definitive judgment about the presence of associated anomalies would still require a scan in the second trimester. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Metabolic differences between male and female adolescents with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, as detected by ultrasound

Background: Age, developmental stage and gender are risk factors for paediatric non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Aims: The aim of this study was to identify differences in clinical or laboratory variables between sexes in adolescents with NAFLD. Methodology: Ninety obese adolescents including 36 males and 54 females were evaluated. Inclusion criteria for this study were a Body Mass Index above the 95th percentile, as set forth by the National Center for Health Statistics, and an age of 10-19 years. A clinical and laboratory evaluation was conducted for all adolescents. Results: The variables that were found to be predictive of NAFLD in adolescence were visceral fat, Aminotransferase, Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase, triglyderides, cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol. We also observed that cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol variables were influenced by gender, i.e. there was a significant statistical difference in the values of these variables between male and female adolescents. With regard to cholesterol serum concentrations, the risk was 6.99 times greater for females, compared with 1.2 times for males; and for LDL-cholesterol serum concentrations the risk was 8.15 times greater for females, compared with and 1.26 times for males. Conclusion: Female adolescents with NAFLD showed a significantly different metabolic behaviour than males.