Examining the strategy development process through the lens of complex adaptive systems theory

The development of strategy remains a debate for academics and a concern for practitioners. Published research has focused on producing models for strategy development and on studying how strategy is developed in organisations. The Operational Research literature has highlighted the importance of considering complexity within strategic decision making; but little has been done to link strategy development with complexity theories, despite organisations and organisational environments becoming increasingly more complex. We review the dominant streams of strategy development and complexity theories. Our theoretical investigation results in the first conceptual framework which links an established Strategic Operational Research model, the Strategy Development Process model, with complexity via Complex Adaptive Systems theory. We present preliminary findings from the use of this conceptual framework applied to a longitudinal, in-depth case study, to demonstrate the advantages of using this integrated conceptual model. Our research shows that the conceptual model proposed provides rich data and allows for a more holistic examination of the strategy development process. © 2012 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved.

The transformational implementation of JSD process specifications via finite automata representation

Conventional structured methods of software engineering are often based on the use of functional decomposition coupled with the Waterfall development process model. This approach is argued to be inadequate for coping with the evolutionary nature of large software systems. Alternative development paradigms, including the operational paradigm and the transformational paradigm, have been proposed to address the inadequacies of this conventional view of software developement, and these are reviewed. JSD is presented as an example of an operational approach to software engineering, and is contrasted with other well documented examples. The thesis shows how aspects of JSD can be characterised with reference to formal language theory and automata theory. In particular, it is noted that Jackson structure diagrams are equivalent to regular expressions and can be thought of as specifying corresponding finite automata. The thesis discusses the automatic transformation of structure diagrams into finite automata using an algorithm adapted from compiler theory, and then extends the technique to deal with areas of JSD which are not strictly formalisable in terms of regular languages. In particular, an elegant and novel method for dealing with so called recognition (or parsing) difficulties is described,. Various applications of the extended technique are described. They include a new method of automatically implementing the dismemberment transformation; an efficient way of implementing inversion in languages lacking a goto-statement; and a new in-the-large implementation strategy.

Information management and the holistic, process-oriented enterprise

This research examines the role of the information management process within a process-oriented enterprise, Xerox Ltd. The research approach is based on a post-positive paradigm and has resulted in thirty-five idiographic statements. The three major outcomes are: 1. The process-oriented holistic enterprise is an organisation that requires a long-term management commitment to its development. It depends on the careful management of people, tasks, information and technology. A complex integration of business processes is required and this can be managed through the use of consistent documentation techniques, clarity in the definition of process responsibilities and management attention to the global metrics and the centralisation of the management of the process model are critical to its success. 2. The role of the information management process within the context of a process-oriented enterprise is to provide flexible and cost-effective applications, technological, and process support to the business. This is best achieved through a centralisation of the management of information management and of the process model. A business-led approach combined with the consolidation of applications, information, process, and data architectures is central to providing effective business and process-focused support. 3. In a process oriented holistic enterprise, process and information management are inextricably linked. The model of process management depends heavily on information management, whilst the model of information management is totally focused around supporting and creating the process model. The two models are mutually creating - one cannot exist without the other. There is a duality concept of process and information management.

Strategic planning as communicative process

This paper examines the construction of a strategic plan as a communicative process. Drawing on Ricoeur’s concepts of decontextualization and recontextualization, we conceptualize strategic planning activities as being constituted through the iterative and recursive relationship of talk and text. Based on an in-depth case study, our findings show how multiple actors engage in a formal strategic planning process which is manifested in a written strategy document. This document is thus central in the iterative talk to text cycles. As individuals express their interpretations of the current strategic plan in talk, they are able to make amendments to the text, which then shape future textual versions of the plan. This cycle is repeated in a recursive process, in which the meanings attributed to talk and text increasingly converge within a final agreed plan. We develop our findings into a process model of the communication process that explains how texts become more authoritative over time and, in doing so, how they inscribe power relationships and social order within organizations. These findings contribute to the literature on strategic planning and on organization as a communication process.

Gaussian process quantile regression using expectation propagation

Direct quantile regression involves estimating a given quantile of a response variable as a function of input variables. We present a new framework for direct quantile regression where a Gaussian process model is learned, minimising the expected tilted loss function. The integration required in learning is not analytically tractable so to speed up the learning we employ the Expectation Propagation algorithm. We describe how this work relates to other quantile regression methods and apply the method on both synthetic and real data sets. The method is shown to be competitive with state of the art methods whilst allowing for the leverage of the full Gaussian process probabilistic framework.

Conceptual Model and Security Requirements for DRM Techniques Used for e-Learning Objects Protection

This paper deals with the security problems of DRM protected e-learning content. After a short review of the main DRM systems and methods used in e-learning, an examination is made of participators in DRM schemes (e-learning object author, content creator, content publisher, license creator and end user). Then a conceptual model of security related processes of DRM implementation is proposed which is improved afterwards to reflect some particularities in DRM protection of e-learning objects. A methodical way is used to describe the security related motives, responsibilities and goals of the main participators involved in the DRM system. Taken together with the process model, these security properties are used to establish a list of requirements to fulfill and a possibility for formal verification of real DRM systems compliance with these requirements.

Analysis of operational risk of banks – catastrophe modelling

Nowadays financial institutions due to regulation and internal motivations care more intensively on their risks. Besides previously dominating market and credit risk new trend is to handle operational risk systematically. Operational risk is the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. First we show the basic features of operational risk and its modelling and regulatory approaches, and after we will analyse operational risk in an own developed simulation model framework. Our approach is based on the analysis of latent risk process instead of manifest risk process, which widely popular in risk literature. In our model the latent risk process is a stochastic risk process, so called Ornstein- Uhlenbeck process, which is a mean reversion process. In the model framework we define catastrophe as breach of a critical barrier by the process. We analyse the distributions of catastrophe frequency, severity and first time to hit, not only for single process, but for dual process as well. Based on our first results we could not falsify the Poisson feature of frequency, and long tail feature of severity. Distribution of “first time to hit” requires more sophisticated analysis. At the end of paper we examine advantages of simulation based forecasting, and finally we concluding with the possible, further research directions to be done in the future.

On the dual-cone nature of the conical refraction phenomenon

In conical refraction (CR), a focused Gaussian input beam passing through a biaxial crystal and parallel to one of the optic axes is transformed into a pair of concentric bright rings split by a dark (Poggendorff) ring at the focal plane. Here, we show the generation of a CR transverse pattern that does not present the Poggendorff fine splitting at the focal plane, i.e., it forms a single light ring. This light ring is generated from a nonhomogeneously polarized input light beam obtained by using a spatially inhomogeneous polarizer that mimics the characteristic CR polarization distribution. This polarizer allows modulating the relative intensity between the two CR light cones in accordance with the recently proposed dual-cone model of the CR phenomenon. We show that the absence of interfering rings at the focal plane is caused by the selection of one of the two CR cones. (C) 2015 Optical Society of America

Ethnogenesis and Craniofacial Change in Japan from the Perspective of Nonmetric Traits

To examine population affinities in light of the ‘dual structure model’, frequencies of 21 nonmetric cranial traits were analyzed in 17 prehistoric to recent samples from Japan and five from continental northeast Asia. Eight bivariate plots, each representing a different bone or region of the skull, as well as cluster analysis of 21-trait mean measures of divergence using multidimensional scaling and additive tree techniques, revealed good discrimination between the Jomon-Ainu indigenous lineage and that of the immigrants who arrived from continental Asia after 300 BC. In Hokkaido, in agreement with historical records, Ainu villages of Hidaka province were least, and those close to the Japan Sea coast were most, hybridized with Wajin. In the central islands, clines were identified among Wajin skeletal samples whereby those from Kyushu most resembled continental northeast Asians, while those from the northernmost prefectures of Tohoku apparently retained the strongest indigenous heritage. In the more southerly prefectures of Tohoku, stronger traces of Jomon ancestry prevailed in the cohort born during the latest Edo period than in the one born after 1870. Thus, it seems that increased inter-regional mobility and gene flow following the Meiji Restoration initiated the most recent episode in the long process of demic diffusion that has helped to shape craniofacial change in Japan.

Time series wind power forecasting based on variant Gaussian process and TLBO

Due to the variability and stochastic nature of wind power system, accurate wind power forecasting has an important role in developing reliable and economic power system operation and control strategies. As wind variability is stochastic, Gaussian Process regression has recently been introduced to capture the randomness of wind energy. However, the disadvantages of Gaussian Process regression include its computation complexity and incapability to adapt to time varying time-series systems. A variant Gaussian Process for time series forecasting is introduced in this study to address these issues. This new method is shown to be capable of reducing computational complexity and increasing prediction accuracy. It is further proved that the forecasting result converges as the number of available data approaches innite. Further, a teaching learning based optimization (TLBO) method is used to train the model and to accelerate
the learning rate. The proposed modelling and optimization method is applied to forecast both the wind power generation of Ireland and that from a single wind farm to show the eectiveness of the proposed method.

Hydrometallurgical process modeling using advanced mathematical tools

Hydrometallurgical process modeling is the main objective of this Master’s thesis work. Three different leaching processes namely, high pressure pyrite oxidation, direct oxidation zinc concentrate (sphalerite) leaching and gold chloride leaching using rotating disc electrode (RDE) are modeled and simulated using gPROMS process simulation program in order to evaluate its model building capabilities. The leaching mechanism in each case is described in terms of a shrinking core model. The mathematical modeling carried out included process model development based on available literature, estimation of reaction kinetic parameters and assessment of the model reliability by checking the goodness fit and checking the cross correlation between the estimated parameters through the use of correlation matrices. The estimated parameter values in each case were compared with those obtained using the Modest simulation program. Further, based on the estimated reaction kinetic parameters, reactor simulation and modeling for direct oxidation zinc concentrate (sphalerite) leaching is carried out in Aspen Plus V8.6. The zinc leaching autoclave is based on Cominco reactor configuration and is modeled as a series of continuous stirred reactors (CSTRs). The sphalerite conversion is calculated and a sensitivity analysis is carried out so to determine the optimum reactor operation temperature and optimum oxygen mass flow rate. In this way, the implementation of reaction kinetic models into the process flowsheet simulation environment has been demonstrated.

Towards Automated Business Process Deduction through a Social and Collaborative Platform

Part 12: Collaboration Platforms

Weak reasoning argumentative theory. A dialogical approach for the discovery of philosophy in high schools

In the literature on philosophical practices, despite the crucial role that argumentation plays in these activities, no specific argumentative theories have ever been proposed to assist the figure of the facilitator in conducting philosophical dialogue and to enhance student’s critical thinking skills. The dissertation starts from a cognitive perspective that challenges the classic Cartesian notion of rationality by focusing on limits and biases of human reasoning. An argumentative model (WRAT – Weak Reasoning Argumentative Theory) is then outlined in order to respond to the needs of philosophical dialogue. After justifying the claim that this learning activity, among other inductive methodologies, is the most suitable for critical thinking education, I inquired into the specific goal of ‘arguing’ within this context by means of the tools provided by Speech Act Theory: the speaker’s intention is to construct new knowledge by questioning her own and other’s beliefs. The model proposed has been theorized on this assumption, starting from which the goals, and, in turn, the related norms, have been pinpointed. In order to include all the epistemic attitudes required to accomplish the complex task of arguing in philosophical dialogue, I needed to integrate two opposed cognitive accounts, Dual Process Theory and Evolutionary Approach, that, although they provide incompatible descriptions of reasoning, can be integrated to provide a normative account of argumentation. The model, apart from offering a theoretical contribution to argumentation studies, is designed to be applied to the Italian educational system, in particular to classes in technical and professional high schools belonging to the newly created network Inventio. This initiative is one of the outcomes of the research project by the same name, which also includes an original Syllabus, research seminars, a monitoring action and publications focused on introducing philosophy, in the form of workshop activities, into technical and professional schools.

Growth of Long Range Forward-Backward Multiplicity Correlations with Centrality in Au plus Au Collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV

Forward-backward multiplicity correlation strengths have been measured with the STAR detector for Au + Au and p + p collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. Strong short- and long-range correlations (LRC) are seen in central Au + Au collisions. The magnitude of these correlations decrease with decreasing centrality until only short-range correlations are observed in peripheral Au + Au collisions. Both the dual parton model (DPM) and the color glass condensate (CGC) predict the existence of the long-range correlations. In the DPM, the fluctuation in the number of elementary (parton) inelastic collisions produces the LRC. In the CGC, longitudinal color flux tubes generate the LRC. The data are in qualitative agreement with the predictions of the DPM and indicate the presence of multiple parton interactions.

Lexical decision in Parkinson's disease: A reply to Brown, McDonald, and Spicer (1999)

Recent semantic priming investigations in Parkinsons disease (PD) employed variants of Neelys (1977) lexical decision paradigm to dissociate the automatic and attentional aspects of semantic activation (McDonald, Brown, Gorell, 1996; Spicer, Brown, Gorell, 1994). In our earlier review, we claimed that the results of Spicer, McDonald and colleagues normal control participants violated the two-process model of information processing (Posner Snyder, 1975) upon which their experimental paradigm had been based (Arnott Chenery, 1999). We argued that, even at the shortest SOA employed, key design modifications to Neelys original experiments biased the tasks employed by Spicer et al. and McDonald et al. towards being assessments of attention-dependent processes. Accordingly, we contended that experimental procedures did not speak to issues of automaticity and, therefore, Spicer, McDonald and colleagues claims of robust automatic semantic activation in PD must be treated with caution.