A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

Achieving sustainable transportation system for Indian cities - problems and issues

This article aims at identifying the research issues and challenges that need to be addressed to achieve sustainable transportation system for Indian cities. The same is achieved by understanding the current system and trends of urbanization, motorization and modal shares in India; and their impact on mobility and safety (the two basic goals of transportation) as well as environment. Further, the article explores the efforts by the central and state governments in India to address the sustainability issues, and the problems and issues over and above the present efforts to achieve sustainability. The article concludes by summarizing the research issues with respect to planning/modelling, non-motorized transport, public transport, driver behaviour and road safety and traffic management. It is expected that these research issues will provide potential directions for carrying out further research aimed at achieving sustainable transport system for Indian cities.

Parameter measurement for heavy-vehicle fuel consumption modelling

A mathematical model is developed to predict the energy consumption of a heavy vehicle. It includes the important factors of heavy-vehicle energy consumption, namely engine and drivetrain performances, losses due to accessories, aerodynamic drag, rolling resistance, road gradients, and driver behaviour. Novel low-cost testing methods were developed to determine engine and drivetrain characteristics. A simple drive cycle was used to validate the model. The model is able to predict the fuel use for a 371 tractor-semitrailer vehicle over a 4 km drive cycle within 1 per cent. This paper demonstrates that accurate and reliable vehicle benchmarking and model parameter measurement can be achieved without expensive equipment overheads, e.g. engine and chassis dynamometers.

TRFS: desenvolvimento de um protótipo para simulação microscópica de tráfego

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização de Vias de Comunicação e Transportes

Effects of dietary restraint and oral contraceptives on bone strength and bone turnover in young women

ABSTRACT Introduction The purpose of this study was to assess specific osteoporosis-related health behaviours and physiological outcomes including daily calcium intake, physical activity levels, bone strength, as assessed by quantitative ultrasound, and bone turnover among women between the ages of 18 and 25. Respective differences on relevant study variables, based on dietary restraint and oral contraceptive use were also examined. Methods One hundred women (20.6 ± 0.2 years of age) volunteered to participate in the study. Informed written consent was obtained by all subjects prior to participation. The study and all related procedures were approved by the Brock University Research Ethics Board. Body mass, height, relative body fat, as well as chest, waist and hip circumferences were measured using standard procedures. The 10-item restrained eating subscale of the Dutch Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (DEBQ) was used to assess dietary restraint (van Strien et al., 1986). Daily calcium intake was assessed by the Rapid Assessment Method (RAM) (Hertzler & Frary 1994). Weekly physical activity was documented by the 4-item Godin Leisure-Time Exercise Questionnaire (Godin & Shephard 1985). Bone strength was determined from the speed of sound (SOS) as measured by QUS (Sunlight 7000S). SOS measurements (m/s) were taken of the dominant and non-dominant sides of the distal one third of the radius and the mid-shaft of the tibia. Resting blood samples were collected from all subjects between 9am and 12pm, in order to evaluate the impact of lifestyle factors on biochemical markers of bone turnover. Blood was collected during the early follicular phase of the menstrual cycle (approximately days 1-5) for all subjects. Samples were centrifliged and the serum or plasma was aliquoted into separate tubes and stored at -80°C until analysis. The bone formation markers measured were Osteocalcin (OC), bone specific alkaline phosphatase (BAP) and 25-OH vitamin D. The bone resorption markers measured were the carboxy (CTx) and amino (NTx) terminal telopeptides of type-I collagen crosslinks. All markers were assessed by ELISA. Subjects were divided into high (HDR) and low dietary restrainers (LDR) based on the median DEBQ score, and also into users (BC) and non-users (nBC) of oral contraceptives. A series of multiple one way ANOVA's were then conducted to identify differences between each set of groups for all relevant variables. A two-way ANOVA analysis was used to explore significant interactions between dietary restraint and use of oral contraceptives while a univariate follow-up analysis was also performed when appropriate. Pearson Product Moment Correlations were used to determine relationships among study variables. Results HDR had significantly higher BMI, %BF and circumference measures but lower daily calcium intake than LDR. There were no significant differences in physical activity levels between HDR and LDR. No significant differences were found between BC and nBC in body composition, calcium intake and physical activity. HDR had significantly lower tibial SOS scores than LDR in both the dominant and non-dominant sites. The post-hoc analysis showed that within the non-birth control group, the HDR had significantly lower tibial SOS scores of bone strength when compared to the LDR but Aere were no significant differences found between the two dietary restraint groups for those currently on birth control. HDR had significantly lower levels of OC than LDR and the BC group had lower levels of BAP than the nBC group. Consistently, the follow-up analysis revealed that within those not on birth control, subjects who were classified as HDR had significantly (f*<0.05) lower levels of OC when compared with LDR but no significant differences were observed in bone turnover between the two dietary restraint groups for those currently on birth control. Physical activity was not correlated with SOS scores and bone turnover markers possibly due to the low physical activity variability in this group of women. Conclusion This is the first study to examine the effects of dietary restraint on bone strength and turnover among this population of women. The most important finding of this study was that bone strength and turnover are negatively influenced by dietary restraint independent of relative body fat. In general, the results of the present thesis suggest that dietary restraint, oral contraceptive use, as well as low daily calcium intake and low physical activity levels were widespread behaviours among this population of college-aged women. The young women who were using dietary restraint as a strategy to lose weight, and thus were in the HDR group, despite their higher relative body fat and weight, had lower scores of bone strength and lower levels of markers of bone turnover compared to the low dietary restrainers. Additionally, bone turnover seemed to be negatively affected by oral contraceptives, while bone strength, as assessed by QUS, seemed unaffected by their use in this population of young women. Physical activity (weekly energy expenditure), on the other hand, was not associated with either bone strength or bone tiimover possibly due to the low variability of this variable in this population of young Canadian women.

Perfil de conducta de enfermedad en paciente con crisis de angustia

Resumen tomado de la revista. Contiene un ap??ndice

Risky attitudes towards road use in pre-drivers

Motor vehicle accidents are one of the principal causes of adolescent disability or mortality and male drivers are more likely to be involved in road accidents than female drivers. In part such associations between driver age and sex have been linked to differences in risky behaviour (e.g. speed, violations) and individual characteristics (e.g. sensation seeking, deviant behaviour). The aim of this research is to determine whether associations between risky road user behaviour and individual characteristics are a function of driver behaviour or whether they are intrinsic and measurable in individuals too young to drive. Five hundred and sixty-seven pre-driver students aged 11-16 from three secondary schools completed questionnaires measuring enthusiasm for speed, sensation seeking, deviant behaviour and attitudes towards driver violations. Boys reported more risky attitudes than girls for all measures. Associations between sensation seeking, deviant behaviour and attitudes towards risky road use were present from early adolescence and were strongest around age 14, before individuals learn to drive. Risky attitudes towards road use are associated with individual characteristics and are observed in adolescents long before they learn to drive. Safe attitudes towards road use and driver behaviour should be promoted from childhood in order to be effective. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Optimal trigger speed of vehicle activated signs

The thesis aims to elaborate on the optimum trigger speed for Vehicle Activated Signs (VAS) and to study the effectiveness of VAS trigger speed on drivers’ behaviour. Vehicle activated signs (VAS) are speed warning signs that are activated by individual vehicle when the driver exceeds a speed threshold. The threshold, which triggers the VAS, is commonly based on a driver speed, and accordingly, is called a trigger speed. At present, the trigger speed activating the VAS is usually set to a constant value and does not consider the fact that an optimal trigger speed might exist. The optimal trigger speed significantly impacts driver behaviour. In order to be able to fulfil the aims of this thesis, systematic vehicle speed data were collected from field experiments that utilized Doppler radar. Further calibration methods for the radar used in the experiment have been developed and evaluated to provide accurate data for the experiment. The calibration method was bidirectional; consisting of data cleaning and data reconstruction. The data cleaning calibration had a superior performance than the calibration based on the reconstructed data. To study the effectiveness of trigger speed on driver behaviour, the collected data were analysed by both descriptive and inferential statistics. Both descriptive and inferential statistics showed that the change in trigger speed had an effect on vehicle mean speed and on vehicle standard deviation of the mean speed. When the trigger speed was set near the speed limit, the standard deviation was high. Therefore, the choice of trigger speed cannot be based solely on the speed limit at the proposed VAS location. The optimal trigger speeds for VAS were not considered in previous studies. As well, the relationship between the trigger value and its consequences under different conditions were not clearly stated. The finding from this thesis is that the optimal trigger speed should be primarily based on lowering the standard deviation rather than lowering the mean speed of vehicles. Furthermore, the optimal trigger speed should be set near the 85th percentile speed, with the goal of lowering the standard deviation.

A data driven approach for automating vehicle activated signs

Vehicle activated signs (VAS) display a warning message when drivers exceed a particular threshold. VAS are often installed on local roads to display a warning message depending on the speed of the approaching vehicles. VAS are usually powered by electricity; however, battery and solar powered VAS are also commonplace. This thesis investigated devel-opment of an automatic trigger speed of vehicle activated signs in order to influence driver behaviour, the effect of which has been measured in terms of reduced mean speed and low standard deviation. A comprehen-sive understanding of the effectiveness of the trigger speed of the VAS on driver behaviour was established by systematically collecting data. Specif-ically, data on time of day, speed, length and direction of the vehicle have been collected for the purpose, using Doppler radar installed at the road. A data driven calibration method for the radar used in the experiment has also been developed and evaluated. Results indicate that trigger speed of the VAS had variable effect on driv-ers’ speed at different sites and at different times of the day. It is evident that the optimal trigger speed should be set near the 85th percentile speed, to be able to lower the standard deviation. In the case of battery and solar powered VAS, trigger speeds between the 50th and 85th per-centile offered the best compromise between safety and power consump-tion. Results also indicate that different classes of vehicles report differ-ences in mean speed and standard deviation; on a highway, the mean speed of cars differs slightly from the mean speed of trucks, whereas a significant difference was observed between the classes of vehicles on lo-cal roads. A differential trigger speed was therefore investigated for the sake of completion. A data driven approach using Random forest was found to be appropriate in predicting trigger speeds respective to types of vehicles and traffic conditions. The fact that the predicted trigger speed was found to be consistently around the 85th percentile speed justifies the choice of the automatic model.

Comportamento alimentar, estado nutricional e imagem corporal de estudantes de Nutrição: aspectos psicossociais e percurso pedagógico

Pós-graduação em Alimentos e Nutrição - FCFAR

Influência do tempo sedentário na qualidade de vida e na percepção dos estados de ânimo em idosos fisicamente ativos

Introduction: Sedentary behavior is characterized by individuals who designed much of the day sitting or lying down activities, even if such conduct regular physical activity. Over the years people tend to be less active, worsening the quality of life. For healthy aging is necessary for the individual to be constantly active, and moving activities improve mood and quality of life, though little is known of the influence of sedentary behavior in these variables. Aim: To investigate the association between sedentary time, quality of life and mood states of elderly women engaged in physical activity. Methodology: The study included 68 elderly women who belong to the Physical Activity Program for the Elderly (PROFIT), for at least 6 months. These answered the Sedentary Behaviour Questionnaire, the Pentacle Welfare and IPAQ Short Version. The Pep States List Reduced and Illustrated (LEA-RI) was applied before and after a workout and before and after three times of sedentary behaviors. To evaluate the difference of sedentary behavior time average for each domain of quality of life was conducted the analysis of the 95% confidence interval for the STATA program version 12.0 and to the moods list data a non-parametric test - test binomial using SPSS version 17.0 program and has adopted a p≤0,05. Results: A moderate intensity physical activity was the most practiced (939.5 ± 650.2 min / week) and the activity most frequently performed in sedentary time was watching television (187.6 ± 96,4min / day). In general, the quality of life for the elderly is considered good (98.39%) and the disease is most prevalent hypertension (29.47%). After a physical activity older felt less useless, less shy and less fear and after a sedentary behavior, felt less agitated and less useless. In relation between the domains of QOL and sedentary behavior time, there were no statistical differences. Conclusion: Elderly active even after a sedentary behavior...

Proposal of a dynamic performance index to analyze driving pattern effect on car emissions

The contributions of driver behaviour as well as surrounding infrastructure are decisive on pollutant emissions from vehicles in real traffic situations. This article deals with the preliminary study of the interaction between the dynamic variables recorded in a vehicle (driving pattern) and pollutant emissions produced over a given urban route. It has been established a “dynamic performance index”-DPI, which is calculated from some driving pattern parameters, which in turn depends on traffic congestion level and route characteristics, in order to determine whether the driving has been aggressive, normal or calm. Two passenger cars instrumented with a portable activity measurement system -to record dynamic variables- and on-board emission measurement equipment have been used. This study has shown that smooth driving patterns can reduce up to 80% NOX emissions and up to 20% of fuel in the same route

Development of a methodology and tool to evaluate the impact of ICT measures on road transport emissions

The paper presents the main elements of a project entitled ICT-Emissions that aims at developing a novel methodology to evaluate the impact of ICT-related measures on mobility, vehicle energy consumption and CO2 emissions of vehicle fleets at the local scale, in order to promote the wider application of the most appropriate ICT measures. The proposed methodology combines traffic and emission modelling at micro and macro scales. These will be linked with interfaces and submodules which will be specifically designed and developed. A number of sources are available to the consortium to obtain the necessary input data. Also, experimental campaigns are offered to fill in gaps of information in traffic and emission patterns. The application of the methodology will be demonstrated using commercially available software. However, the methodology is developed in such a way as to enable its implementation by a variety of emission and traffic models. Particular emphasis is given to (a) the correct estimation of driver behaviour, as a result of traffic-related ICT measures, (b) the coverage of a large number of current vehicle technologies, including ICT systems, and (c) near future technologies such as hybrid, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles. The innovative combination of traffic, driver, and emission models produces a versatile toolbox that can simulate the impact on energy and CO2 of infrastructure measures (traffic management, dynamic traffic signs, etc.), driver assistance systems and ecosolutions (speed/cruise control, start/stop systems, etc.) or a combination of measures (cooperative systems).The methodology is validated by application in the Turin area and its capacity is further demonstrated by application in real world conditions in Madrid and Rome.

Community-based programmes to prevent pedestrian injuries in children 0-14 years: A systematic review

Community-based models for injury prevention have become an accepted part of the overall injury control strategy. This systematic review of the scientific literature examines the evidence for their effectiveness in reducing pedestrian injury in children 0-14 years of age. A comprehensive search of the literature was performed using the following study selection criteria: community-based intervention study; target population was children under 14 years; outcome measure is either pedestrian injury rates or observed child pedestrian or vehicle driver behaviour; and use of a community control or an historical control in the study design. Quality assessment and data abstraction was guided by a standardized procedure and performed independently by two authors. Data synthesis was in tabular and text form with meta-analysis not being possible due to the discrepancy in methods and measures between the studies.

Is health care seeking for irritable bowel syndrome and functional dyspepsia a socially learned response to illness?

In a population-based study of 207 subjects with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) or functional dyspepsia (FD) and controls (n = 100), we aimed to determine whether dimensions of abnormal illness behavior from the Abnormal Illness Behaviour Questionnaire and aspects of social learning of illness behavior from the Social Learning of Illness Behaviour scale were independent predictors of health care seeking for IBS and FD. Results showed that dimensions of abnormal illness behavior and aspects of social learning of illness behavior (encouragement, reinforcement, and modeling) did not significantly differentiate between consulters and nonconsulters with IBS and/or FD. The Disease Conviction scale (OR = 1.55; 95% CI, 1.15-2.09) of the Abnormal Illness Behaviour Questionnaire was an independent predictor of having a diagnosis of IBS and/or FD, independent of age and gender, psychiatric diagnoses, and symptom severity. We conclude that a belief in the presence of serious pathology characterizes community subjects with IBS and FD, but not health care seeking.