Multi-Agent Simulation and Management Practices

Intelligent agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. Agent-Based Simulation (ABS), one way of using intelligent agents, carries great potential for progressing our understanding of management practices and how they link to retail performance. We have developed simulation models based on research by a multi-disciplinary team of economists, work psychologists and computer scientists. We will discuss our experiences of implementing these concepts working with a well-known retail department store. There is no doubt that management practices are linked to the performance of an organisation (Reynolds et al., 2005; Wall & Wood, 2005). Best practices have been developed, but when it comes down to the actual application of these guidelines considerable ambiguity remains regarding their effectiveness within particular contexts (Siebers et al., forthcoming a). Most Operational Research (OR) methods can only be used as analysis tools once management practices have been implemented. Often they are not very useful for giving answers to speculative ‘what-if’ questions, particularly when one is interested in the development of the system over time rather than just the state of the system at a certain point in time. Simulation can be used to analyse the operation of dynamic and stochastic systems. ABS is particularly useful when complex interactions between system entities exist, such as autonomous decision making or negotiation. In an ABS model the researcher explicitly describes the decision process of simulated actors at the micro level. Structures emerge at the macro level as a result of the actions of the agents and their interactions with other agents and the environment. We will show how ABS experiments can deal with testing and optimising management practices such as training, empowerment or teamwork. Hence, questions such as “will staff setting their own break times improve performance?” can be investigated.

Introduction to Multi-Agent Simulation

When designing systems that are complex, dynamic and stochastic in nature, simulation is generally recognised as one of the best design support technologies, and a valuable aid in the strategic and tactical decision making process. A simulation model consists of a set of rules that define how a system changes over time, given its current state. Unlike analytical models, a simulation model is not solved but is run and the changes of system states can be observed at any point in time. This provides an insight into system dynamics rather than just predicting the output of a system based on specific inputs. Simulation is not a decision making tool but a decision support tool, allowing better informed decisions to be made. Due to the complexity of the real world, a simulation model can only be an approximation of the target system. The essence of the art of simulation modelling is abstraction and simplification. Only those characteristics that are important for the study and analysis of the target system should be included in the simulation model. The purpose of simulation is either to better understand the operation of a target system, or to make predictions about a target system’s performance. It can be viewed as an artificial white-room which allows one to gain insight but also to test new theories and practices without disrupting the daily routine of the focal organisation. What you can expect to gain from a simulation study is very well summarised by FIRMA (2000). His idea is that if the theory that has been framed about the target system holds, and if this theory has been adequately translated into a computer model this would allow you to answer some of the following questions: · Which kind of behaviour can be expected under arbitrarily given parameter combinations and initial conditions? · Which kind of behaviour will a given target system display in the future? · Which state will the target system reach in the future? The required accuracy of the simulation model very much depends on the type of question one is trying to answer. In order to be able to respond to the first question the simulation model needs to be an explanatory model. This requires less data accuracy. In comparison, the simulation model required to answer the latter two questions has to be predictive in nature and therefore needs highly accurate input data to achieve credible outputs. These predictions involve showing trends, rather than giving precise and absolute predictions of the target system performance. The numerical results of a simulation experiment on their own are most often not very useful and need to be rigorously analysed with statistical methods. These results then need to be considered in the context of the real system and interpreted in a qualitative way to make meaningful recommendations or compile best practice guidelines. One needs a good working knowledge about the behaviour of the real system to be able to fully exploit the understanding gained from simulation experiments. The goal of this chapter is to brace the newcomer to the topic of what we think is a valuable asset to the toolset of analysts and decision makers. We will give you a summary of information we have gathered from the literature and of the experiences that we have made first hand during the last five years, whilst obtaining a better understanding of this exciting technology. We hope that this will help you to avoid some pitfalls that we have unwittingly encountered. Section 2 is an introduction to the different types of simulation used in Operational Research and Management Science with a clear focus on agent-based simulation. In Section 3 we outline the theoretical background of multi-agent systems and their elements to prepare you for Section 4 where we discuss how to develop a multi-agent simulation model. Section 5 outlines a simple example of a multi-agent system. Section 6 provides a collection of resources for further studies and finally in Section 7 we will conclude the chapter with a short summary.

Robust Adaptive Control with Applications to Multi-Agent Systems and Mobile Robotics

This thesis deals with robust adaptive control and its applications, and it is divided into three main parts. The first part is about the design of robust estimation algorithms based on recursive least squares. First, we present an estimator for the frequencies of biased multi-harmonic signals, and then an algorithm for distributed estimation of an unknown parameter over a network of adaptive agents. In the second part of this thesis, we consider a cooperative control problem over uncertain networks of linear systems and Kuramoto systems, in which the agents have to track the reference generated by a leader exosystem. Since the reference signal is not available to each network node, novel distributed observers are designed so as to reconstruct the reference signal locally for each agent, and therefore decentralizing the problem. In the third and final part of this thesis, we consider robust estimation tasks for mobile robotics applications. In particular, we first consider the problem of slip estimation for agricultural tracked vehicles. Then, we consider a search and rescue application in which we need to drive an unmanned aerial vehicle as close as possible to the unknown (and to be estimated) position of a victim, who is buried under the snow after an avalanche event. In this thesis, robustness is intended as an input-to-state stability property of the proposed identifiers (sometimes referred to as adaptive laws), with respect to additive disturbances, and relative to a steady-state trajectory that is associated with a correct estimation of the unknown parameter to be found.

Modelling, simulation and control of rotary-wing aircraft in multi-agent scenario

The topic of this thesis is the design and the implementation of mathematical models and control system algorithms for rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicles to be used in cooperative scenarios. The use of rotorcrafts has many attractive advantages, since these vehicles have the capability to take-off and land vertically, to hover and to move backward and laterally. Rotary-wing aircraft missions require precise control characteristics due to their unstable and heavy coupling aspects. As a matter of fact, flight test is the most accurate way to evaluate flying qualities and to test control systems. However, it may be very expensive and/or not feasible in case of early stage design and prototyping. A good compromise is made by a preliminary assessment performed by means of simulations and a reduced flight testing campaign. Consequently, having an analytical framework represents an important stage for simulations and control algorithm design. In this work mathematical models for various helicopter configurations are implemented. Different flight control techniques for helicopters are presented with theoretical background and tested via simulations and experimental flight tests on a small-scale unmanned helicopter. The same platform is used also in a cooperative scenario with a rover. Control strategies, algorithms and their implementation to perform missions are presented for two main scenarios. One of the main contributions of this thesis is to propose a suitable control system made by a classical PID baseline controller augmented with L1 adaptive contribution. In addition a complete analytical framework and the study of the dynamics and the stability of a synch-rotor are provided. At last, the implementation of cooperative control strategies for two main scenarios that include a small-scale unmanned helicopter and a rover.

Performance of a multi-level TDR system exposed to tropical field conditions - A time-space comparison with tensiometry

Time-domain reflectometry (TDR) is an important technique to obtain series of soil water content measurements in the field. Diode-segmented probes represent an improvement in TDR applicability, allowing measurements of the soil water content profile with a single probe. In this paper we explore an extensive soil water content dataset obtained by tensiometry and TDR from internal drainage experiments in two consecutive years in a tropical soil in Brazil. Comparisons between the variation patterns of the water content estimated by both methods exhibited evidences of deterioration of the TDR system during this two year period at field conditions. The results showed consistency in the variation pattern for the tensiometry data, whereas TDR estimates were inconsistent, with sensitivity decreasing over time. This suggests that difficulties may arise for the long-term use of this TDR system under tropical field conditions. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A hybrid approach to multi-agent decision-making

In the aftermath of a large-scale disaster, agents' decisions derive from self-interested (e.g. survival), common-good (e.g. victims' rescue) and teamwork (e.g. fire extinction) motivations. However, current decision-theoretic models are either purely individual or purely collective and find it difficult to deal with motivational attitudes; on the other hand, mental-state based models find it difficult to deal with uncertainty. We propose a hybrid, CvI-JI, approach that combines: i) collective 'versus' individual (CvI) decisions, founded on the Markov decision process (MDP) quantitative evaluation of joint-actions, and ii)joint-intentions (JI) formulation of teamwork, founded on the belief-desire-intention (BDI) architecture of general mental-state based reasoning. The CvI-JI evaluation explores the performance's improvement

Multi-agent negotiation for coalition formation and management in electricity markets

Negotiation is a fundamental tool for reaching understandings that allow each involved party to gain an advantage for themselves by the end of the process. In recent years, with the increasing of compe-titiveness in most sectors, negotiation procedures become present in practically all of them. One particular environment in which the competitiveness has been increasing exponentially is the electricity markets sector. This work is directed to the study of electricity markets’ partici-pating entities interaction, namely in what concerns the formation, management and operation of aggregating entities – Virtual Power Players (VPPs). VPPs are responsible for managing coalitions of market players with small market negotiating influence, which take strategic advantage in entering such aggregations, to increase their negotiating power. This chapter presents a negotiation methodology for the creation and management of coalitions in Electricity Markets. This approach is tested using MASCEM, taking advantage of its ability to provide the means to model and simulate VPPs. VPPs are represented as coalitions of agents, with the capability of negotiating both in the market, and internally, with their members, in order to combine and manage their individual specific characteristics and goals, with the strategy and objectives of the VPP itself.

Sistema multi-agente para gestão de tráfego em centros urbanos

Mestrado em Engenharia Informática

Distributed active traction control system applied to the RoboCup middle size league

This work addresses the problem of traction control in mobile wheeled robots in the particular case of the RoboCup Middle Size League (MSL). The slip control problem is formulated using simple friction models for ISePorto Team robots with a differential wheel configuration. Traction was also characterized experimentally in the MSL scenario for relevant game events. This work proposes a hierarchical traction control architecture which relies in local slip detection and control at each wheel, with relevant information being relayed to a higher level responsible for global robot motion control. A dedicated one axis control embedded hardware subsystem allowing complex local control, high frequency current sensing and odometric information procession was developed. This local axis control board is integrated in a distributed system using CAN bus communications. The slipping observer was implemented in the axis control hardware nodes integrated in the ISePorto robots and was used to control and detect loss of for traction. %and to detect the ball in the kicking device. An external vision system was used to perform a qualitative analysis of the slip detection and observer performance results are presented.

Scenarios Generation for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets based on Intelligent Data Analysis

This document presents a tool able to automatically gather data provided by real energy markets and to generate scenarios, capture and improve market players’ profiles and strategies by using knowledge discovery processes in databases supported by artificial intelligence techniques, data mining algorithms and machine learning methods. It provides the means for generating scenarios with different dimensions and characteristics, ensuring the representation of real and adapted markets, and their participating entities. The scenarios generator module enhances the MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) simulator, endowing a more effective tool for decision support. The achievements from the implementation of the proposed module enables researchers and electricity markets’ participating entities to analyze data, create real scenarios and make experiments with them. On the other hand, applying knowledge discovery techniques to real data also allows the improvement of MASCEM agents’ profiles and strategies resulting in a better representation of real market players’ behavior. This work aims to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities through adequate multi-agent simulation.

Automatic Electricity Markets Data Extraction for Realistic Multi-agent Simulations

Electricity markets worldwide suffered profound transformations. The privatization of previously nationally owned systems; the deregulation of privately owned systems that were regulated; and the strong interconnection of national systems, are some examples of such transformations [1, 2]. In general, competitive environments, as is the case of electricity markets, require good decision-support tools to assist players in their decisions. Relevant research is being undertaken in this field, namely concerning player modeling and simulation, strategic bidding and decision-support.

Realistic Multi-Agent Simulation of Competitive Electricity Markets

The dynamism and ongoing changes that the electricity markets sector is constantly suffering, enhanced by the huge increase in competitiveness, create the need of using simulation platforms to support operators, regulators, and the involved players in understanding and dealing with this complex environment. This paper presents an enhanced electricity market simulator, based on multi-agent technology, which provides an advanced simulation framework for the study of real electricity markets operation, and the interactions between the involved players. MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) uses real data for the creation of realistic simulation scenarios, which allow the study of the impacts and implications that electricity markets transformations bring to different countries. Also, the development of an upper-ontology to support the communication between participating agents, provides the means for the integration of this simulator with other frameworks, such as MAN-REM (Multi-Agent Negotiation and Risk Management in Electricity Markets). A case study using the enhanced simulation platform that results from the integration of several systems and different tools is presented, with a scenario based on real data, simulating the MIBEL electricity market environment, and comparing the simulation performance with the real electricity market results.

Data Mining Approach to support the Generation of Realistic Scenarios for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets

This paper presents the Realistic Scenarios Generator (RealScen), a tool that processes data from real electricity markets to generate realistic scenarios that enable the modeling of electricity market players’ characteristics and strategic behavior. The proposed tool provides significant advantages to the decision making process in an electricity market environment, especially when coupled with a multi-agent electricity markets simulator. The generation of realistic scenarios is performed using mechanisms for intelligent data analysis, which are based on artificial intelligence and data mining algorithms. These techniques allow the study of realistic scenarios, adapted to the existing markets, and improve the representation of market entities as software agents, enabling a detailed modeling of their profiles and strategies. This work contributes significantly to the understanding of the interactions between the entities acting in electricity markets by increasing the capability and realism of market simulations.

Potencial Utilização de um Enterprise Resource Planning System para Suportar Práticas de Gestão de Conhecimento nas Organizações. Uma Aplicação com Dynamics Nav da Microsoft

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Lightweight robust behavior industrial agent methodology

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores