Hybrid choice model for propensity to travel and tour complexity

During the last years cities around the world have invested important quantities of money in measures for reducing congestion and car-trips. Investments which are nothing but potential solutions for the well-known urban sprawl phenomenon, also called the “development trap” that leads to further congestion and a higher proportion of our time spent in slow moving cars. Over the path of this searching for solutions, the complex relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour has been studied in a number of cases. The main question on discussion is, how to encourage multi-stop tours? Thus, the objective of this paper is to verify whether unobserved factors influence tour complexity. For this purpose, we use a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006-2007 in Madrid, a suitable case study for analyzing urban sprawl due to new urban developments and substantial changes in mobility patterns in the last years. A total of 943 individuals were interviewed from 3 selected neighbourhoods (CBD, urban and suburban). We study the effect of unobserved factors on trip frequency. This paper present the estimation of an hybrid model where the latent variable is called propensity to travel and the discrete choice model is composed by 5 alternatives of tour type. The results show that characteristics of the neighbourhoods in Madrid are important to explain trip frequency. The influence of land use variables on trip generation is clear and in particular the presence of commercial retails. Through estimation of elasticities and forecasting we determine to what extent land-use policy measures modify travel demand. Comparing aggregate elasticities with percentage variations, it can be seen that percentage variations could lead to inconsistent results. The result shows that hybrid models better explain travel behavior than traditional discrete choice models.

Conducting statistical tests of hypotheses : five common misconceptions found in transportation research

Most statistical methods use hypothesis testing. Analysis of variance, regression, discrete choice models, contingency tables, and other analysis methods commonly used in transportation research share hypothesis testing as the means of making inferences about the population of interest. Despite the fact that hypothesis testing has been a cornerstone of empirical research for many years, various aspects of hypothesis tests commonly are incorrectly applied, misinterpreted, and ignored—by novices and expert researchers alike. On initial glance, hypothesis testing appears straightforward: develop the null and alternative hypotheses, compute the test statistic to compare to a standard distribution, estimate the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis, and then make claims about the importance of the finding. This is an oversimplification of the process of hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing as applied in empirical research is examined here. The reader is assumed to have a basic knowledge of the role of hypothesis testing in various statistical methods. Through the use of an example, the mechanics of hypothesis testing is first reviewed. Then, five precautions surrounding the use and interpretation of hypothesis tests are developed; examples of each are provided to demonstrate how errors are made, and solutions are identified so similar errors can be avoided. Remedies are provided for common errors, and conclusions are drawn on how to use the results of this paper to improve the conduct of empirical research in transportation.

Agricultural biodiversity, farm level technical efficiency and conservation benefits : an empirical investigation

The issues involved in agricultural biodiversity are important and interesting areas for the application of economic theory. However, very little theoretical and empirical work has been undertaken to understand the benefits of conserving agricultural biodiversity. Accordingly, the main objectives of this PhD thesis are to: (1) Investigate farmers’ valuation of agricultural biodiversity; (2) Identify factors influencing farmers’ demand for agricultural biodiversity; (3) Examine farmers’ demand for biodiversity rich farming systems; (4) Investigate the relationship between agricultural biodiversity and farm level technical efficiency. This PhD thesis investigates these issues by using primary data in small-scale farms, along with secondary data from Sri Lanka. The overall findings of the thesis can be summarized as follows. Firstly, owing to educational and poverty issues of those being interviewed, some policy makers in developed countries question whether non-market valuation techniques such as Choice Experiment (CE) can be applied to developing countries such as Sri Lanka. The CE study in this thesis indicates that carefully designed and pre-tested nonmarket valuation techniques can be applied in developing countries with a high level of reliability. The CE findings support the priori assumption that small-scale farms and their multiple attributes contribute positively and significantly to the utility of farm families in Sri Lanka. Farmers have strong positive attitudes towards increasing agricultural biodiversity in rural areas. This suggests that these attitudes can be the basis on which appropriate policies can be introduced to improve agricultural biodiversity. Secondly, the thesis identifies the factors which influence farmers’ demand for agricultural biodiversity and farmers’ demands on biodiversity rich farming systems. As such they provide important tools for the implementation of policies designed to avoid the loss agricultural biodiversity which is shown to be a major impediment to agricultural growth and sustainable development in a number of developing countries. The results illustrate that certain key household, market and other characteristics (such as agricultural subsidies, percentage of investment of owned money and farm size) are the major determinants of demand for agricultural biodiversity on small-scale farms. The significant household characteristics that determine crop and livestock diversity include household member participation on the farm, off-farm income, shared labour, market price fluctuations and household wealth. Furthermore, it is shown that all the included market characteristics as well as agricultural subsidies are also important determinants of agricultural biodiversity. Thirdly, it is found that when the efficiency of agricultural production is measured in practice, the role of agricultural biodiversity has rarely been investigated in the literature. The results in the final section of the thesis show that crop diversity, livestock diversity and mix farming system are positively related to farm level technical efficiency. In addition to these variables education level, number of separate plots, agricultural extension service, credit access, membership of farm organization and land ownerships are significant and direct policy relevant variables in the inefficiency model. The results of the study therefore have important policy implications for conserving agricultural biodiversity in Sri Lanka.

Riding a mile in their shoes : understanding Australian metropolitan rail passenger perceptions and experiences of crowdedness using mixed-methods research

Metrics such as passengers per square metre have been developed to define optimum or crowded rail passenger density. Whilst such metrics are important to operational procedures, service evaluation and reporting, they fail to fully capture and convey the ways in which passengers experience crowded situations. This paper reports findings from a two year study of rail passenger crowding in five Australian capital cities which involved a novel mixed-methodology including ethnography, focus groups and an online stated preference choice experiment. The resulting data address the following four fundamental research questions: 1) to what extent are Australian rail passengers concerned by crowding, 2) what conditions exacerbate feelings of crowdedness, 3) what conditions mitigate feelings of crowdedness, and 4) how can we usefully understand passengers’ experiences of crowdedness? It concludes with some observations on the significance and implications of these findings for customer service provision. The findings outlined in this paper demonstrate that the experience of crowdedness (including its tolerance) cannot be understood in isolation from other customer services issues such as interior design, quality of environment, safety and public health concerns. It is hypothesised that tolerance of crowding will increase alongside improvements to overall customer service. This was the first comprehensive study of crowding in the Australian rail industry.

Setting water quality objectives for the health of freshwater fish

An important responsibility of the Environment Protection Authority, Victoria, is to set objectives for levels of environmental contaminants. To support the development of environmental objectives for water quality, a need has been identified to understand the dual impacts of concentration and duration of a contaminant on biota in freshwater streams. For suspended solids contamination, information reported by Newcombe and Jensen [ North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 16(4):693--727, 1996] study of freshwater fish and the daily suspended solids data from the United States Geological Survey stream monitoring network is utilised. The study group was requested to examine both the utility of the Newcombe and Jensen and the USA data, as well as the formulation of a procedure for use by the Environment Protection Authority Victoria that takes concentration and duration of harmful episodes into account when assessing water quality. The extent to which the impact of a toxic event on fish health could be modelled deterministically was also considered. It was found that concentration and exposure duration were the main compounding factors on the severity of effects of suspended solids on freshwater fish. A protocol for assessing the cumulative effect on fish health and a simple deterministic model, based on the biology of gill harm and recovery, was proposed. References D. W. T. Au, C. A. Pollino, R. S. S Wu, P. K. S. Shin, S. T. F. Lau, and J. Y. M. Tang. Chronic effects of suspended solids on gill structure, osmoregulation, growth, and triiodothyronine in juvenile green grouper epinephelus coioides . Marine Ecology Press Series , 266:255--264, 2004. J.C. Bezdek, S.K. Chuah, and D. Leep. Generalized k-nearest neighbor rules. Fuzzy Sets and Systems , 18:237--26, 1986. E. T. Champagne, K. L. Bett-Garber, A. M. McClung, and C. Bergman. {Sensory characteristics of diverse rice cultivars as influenced by genetic and environmental factors}. Cereal Chem. , {81}:{237--243}, {2004}. S. G. Cheung and P. K. S. Shin. Size effects of suspended particles on gill damage in green-lipped mussel perna viridis. Marine Pollution Bulletin , 51(8--12):801--810, 2005. D. H. Evans. The fish gill: site of action and model for toxic effects of environmental pollutants. Environmental Health Perspectives , 71:44--58, 1987. G. C. Grigg. The failure of oxygen transport in a fish at low levels of ambient oxygen. Comp. Biochem. Physiol. , 29:1253--1257, 1969. G. Holmes, A. Donkin, and I.H. Witten. {Weka: A machine learning workbench}. In Proceedings of the Second Australia and New Zealand Conference on Intelligent Information Systems , volume {24}, pages {357--361}, {Brisbane, Australia}, {1994}. {IEEE Computer Society}. D. D. Macdonald and C. P. Newcombe. Utility of the stress index for predicting suspended sediment effects: response to comments. North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 13:873--876, 1993. C. P. Newcombe. Suspended sediment in aquatic ecosystems: ill effects as a function of concentration and duration of exposure. Technical report, British Columbia Ministry of Environment, Lands and Parks, Habitat Protection branch, Victoria, 1994. C. P. Newcombe and J. O. T. Jensen. Channel suspended sediment and fisheries: A synthesis for quantitative assessment of risk and impact. North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 16(4):693--727, 1996. C. P. Newcombe and D. D. Macdonald. Effects of suspended sediments on aquatic ecosystems. North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 11(1):72--82, 1991. K. Schmidt-Nielsen. Scaling. Why is animal size so important? Cambridge University Press, NY, 1984. J. S. Schwartz, A. Simon, and L. Klimetz. Use of fish functional traits to associate in-stream suspended sediment transport metrics with biological impairment. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment , 179(1--4):347--369, 2011. E. Al Shaw and J. S. Richardson. Direct and indirect effects of sediment pulse duration on stream invertebrate assemb ages and rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) growth and survival. Canadian Journal of Fish and Aquatic Science , 58:2213--2221, 2001. P. Tiwari and H. Hasegawa. {Demand for housing in Tokyo: A discrete choice analysis}. Regional Studies , {38}:{27--42}, {2004}. Y. Tramblay, A. Saint-Hilaire, T. B. M. J. Ouarda, F. Moatar, and B Hecht. Estimation of local extreme suspended sediment concentrations in california rivers. Science of the Total Environment , 408:4221--

Shared caregiving responsibilities of adult siblings with elderly parents

This paper uses a nonstructural, ordered discrete choice model to measure the effects of various parent and child characteristics upon the independent caregiving decisions of the adult children of elderly parents sampled in the 1982 and 1984 National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS). While significant effects are noted, emphasis is placed on test statistics constructed to measure the independence of caregiving decisions. The test statistic results are conclusive: The caregiving decisions of adult children are dependent across time and family members. Structural models taking dependencies among family members into account note effects similar to those in the nonstructural model.

Imputing a continuous income variable from a bracketed income variable with special attention to missing observations

This paper proposes a method, based on polychotomous discrete choice methods, to impute a continuous measure of income when only a bracketed measure of income is available and for only a subset of the obsevations. The method is shown to perform well with CP5 data. © 1991.

Making decisions about antibiotic use in the Australian primary healthcare sector

Introduction Australia is contributing to the global problem of antimicrobial resistance with one of the highest rates of antibiotic use amongst OECD countries. Data from the Australian primary healthcare sector suggests unnecessary antibiotics were prescribed for conditions that will resolve without it. If left unchecked, this will result in more resistant micro-organisms, against which antibiotics will be useless. There is a lack of understanding about what is influencing decisions to use antibiotics – what factors influences general practitioners (GPs) to prescribe antibiotics, consumers to seek antibiotics, and pharmacists to fill old antibiotic prescriptions? It is also not clear how these individuals trade-off between the possible benefits that antibiotics may provide in the immediate/short term, against the longer term societal risk of antimicrobial resistance. Method This project will investigate (a) what factors drive decisions to use antibiotics for GPs, pharmacists and consumers, and (b) how these individuals discount the future. Factors will be gleaned from published literature and from a qualitative phase using semi-structured interviews, to inform the development of Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs). Three DCEs will be constructed – one for each group of interest – to allow investigation of which factors are more important in influencing (a) GPs to prescribe antibiotics, (b) consumers to seek antibiotics, and (c) pharmacists to fill legally valid but old or repeat prescriptions of antibiotics. Regression analysis will be conducted to understand the relative importance of these factors. A Time Trade Off exercise will be developed to investigate how these individuals discount the future, and whether GPs and pharmacists display the same extent of discounting the future, as consumers. Expected Results Findings from the DCEs will provide an insight into which factors are more important in driving decision making in antibiotic use for GPs, pharmacists and consumers. Findings from the Time Trade Off exercise will show what individuals are willing to trade for preserving the miracle of antibiotics. Conclusion The emergence of antibiotic resistance is inevitable. This research will expand on what is currently known about influencing desired behaviour change in antibiotic use, in the fight against antibiotic resistance. Real World Implications Research findings will contribute to existing national programs to bring about a reduction in inappropriate use of antibiotic in Australia. Specifically, influencing (1) how key messages and public health campaigns are crafted to increase health literacy, and (2) clinical education and empowerment of GPs and pharmacists to play a more responsive role as stewards of antibiotic use in the community.

Workers' attitude towards bus rapid transit in Dhaka, Bangladesh

This study investigates: –how travel and socio-demographic attributes act on workers’ mode choice decisions in Dhaka –whether Dhaka’s commuters would choose BRT for their work trip once implemented •Very limited research exists on users’ perceptions of BRT in developing countries’ megacities •We adopted a discrete choice modelling approach •As BRT has not yet been implemented in Dhaka, we collected Stated Choice (SC) survey data including a hypothetical BRT mode to understand factors important to workers’ mode choice decisions •We compare the impact of travel factors between Dhaka and cities of developed countries

Demand for ecolabeled seafood in the Japanese market: A conjoint analysis of the impact of information and interaction with other labels

The use of seafood ecolabels is expanding in the world marketplace, but so are labels indicating other product attributes, such as country of origin and wild vs. farmed. The interactive effects of these labels and attributes in evaluating consumers' preferences for ecolabeled seafood are relatively unexplored. In this paper we investigate (1) the direct and interactive effects of seafood ecolabels with other common fish labels, and (2) how consumers' perceptions about the state of marine stocks and the valuation of ecolabels may be affected by different information. We find moderate interactive effects between ecolabels and country of origin labels, whereas the valuation for seafood ecolabels is fairly high. In terms of information, we find that consumers' perceptions about fish stock levels changed (negatively) after receiving information on declining stock levels, and more sensationalized information led to increased change. However, valuation for a seafood ecolabel increases only when the information was perceived positively (credible/interesting); whereas exaggerated information (which was also perceived less credible) had insignificant effects on WTP.

The expected and unexpected consequences of implementing energy efficient vehicle incentives

Completed as part of a Joint PhD program between Queensland University of Technology and the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, Sweden, this thesis examines the effects of different government incentive policies on the demand, usage and pricing of energy efficient vehicles. This study outlines recommendations for policy makers aiming to increase the uptake of energy efficient vehicles. The study finds that whilst many government incentives have been successful in encouraging the uptake of energy efficient vehicles, policy makers need to both recognise and attempt to minimise the potential unintended consequences of such initiatives.

Host selection and parasitism behavior of lysiphlebus testaceipes: Role of plant, aphid species and instar

The aphid parasitoid Lysiphlebus testaceipes is a potentially valuable biological control agent of Aphis gossypii a major worldwide pest of cotton. One means of increasing the abundance of a biological control agent is to provide an alternative host habitat adjacent to cropping, from which they can provide pest control services in the crop. Host selection and parasitism rate of an alternative host aphid, Aphis craccivora by L. testaceipes were studied in a series of experiments that tested its host suitability relative to A. gossypii on cotton, hibiscus and mungbean. Host acceptance, as measured by number of ovipositions was much greater in A. craccivora compared to A. gossypii, while more host aphids were accepted on mungbean than cotton. When given a choice L. testaceipes attacks more 4th instar and adult stages (63% and 70%, respectively) of both hosts than 2nd instar nymphs (47%). In a switching (host choice) experiment, L. testaceipes preferentially attacked A. craccivora on mungbean over A. gossypii on cotton. Observations of parasitoid contact with A. gossypii cornicle secretion suggest it provides a useful deterrent against parasitoid attack. From these experiments it appears L. testaceipes has a preference for A. craccivora and mungbean compared to A. gossypii and cotton, in this respect using A. craccivora and mungbean as alternative habitat may not work as the parasitoid is unlikely to switch away from its preferred host. © 2012.

Developmental biology and prey preference of Diomus notescens Blackburn (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae): A predator of Aphis gossypii Glover (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

The minute two-spotted ladybeetle, Diomus notescens Blackburn is a common predator of aphids and other pests in Australian agricultural crops, however little is known about the biology of D. notescens. The aim of this study was to provide information on the life cycle of this predator and improve our understanding of its biological control potential, particularly against one of the major pests of cotton, Aphis gossypii Glover. In laboratory experiments, juvenile development, prey consumption, as well as adult lifespan and fecundity were studied. Results from this study revealed that D. notescens could successfully complete development on A. gossypii, which at 25 °C required 21 days and during this period they each consume 129 ± 5.2 aphids. At 25 °C adult lifespan was 77 ± 9.6 days, with a mean daily prey consumption of 28 ± 1.8 aphids and a mean daily fecundity of 8 ± 0.5 eggs. Net reproductive rate was estimated as 187 ± 25.1 females and the intrinsic rate of increase was estimated as 0.14. Juvenile development was recorded at four constant temperatures (15, 21, 26 and 27 °C) and using a linear model, the lower threshold for D. notescens development was estimated to be 10 ± 0.6 °C with 285 ± 4.7 degree days required to complete development. A prey choice experiment studying predation rates revealed a strong preference for A. gossypii nymphs compared to Bemisia tabaci Gennadius eggs.

Making decisions about antibiotic use in the Australian primary healthcare sector

Background Australia has one of the highest rates of antibiotic use amongst OECD countries. Data from the Australian primary healthcare sector suggests unnecessary antibiotics were prescribed for self-resolving conditions. We need to better understand what drives general practitioners (GPs) to prescribe antibiotics, consumers to seek antibiotics, and pharmacists to fill repeat antibiotic prescriptions. It is also not clear how these individuals trade-off between the possible benefits that antibiotics may provide in the immediate/short term, against the longer term societal risk of antimicrobial resistance. This project investigates what factors drive decisions to use antibiotics for GPs, pharmacists and consumers, and how these individuals discount the future. Methods Factors will be gleaned from published literature and from semi-structured interviews, to inform the development of Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs). Three DCEs will be constructed – one for each group of interest – to allow investigation of which factors are more important in influencing (a) GPs to prescribe antibiotics, (b) consumers to seek antibiotics, and (c) pharmacists to fill legally valid but old or repeat prescriptions of antibiotics. Regression analysis will be conducted to understand the relative importance of these factors. A Time Trade Off exercise will be developed to investigate how these individuals discount the future. Results Findings from the DCEs will provide an insight into which factors are more important in driving decision making in antibiotic use for GPs, pharmacists and consumers. Findings from the Time Trade Off exercise will show what individuals are willing to trade for preserving the miracle of antibiotics. Conclusion Research findings will contribute to existing national programs to bring about a reduction in inappropriate use of antibiotic in Australia. Specifically, influencing how key messages and public health campaigns are crafted, and clinical education and empowerment of GPs and pharmacists to play a more responsive role as stewards of antibiotic use in the community.

Towards a participatory integrated assessment approach for planning and managing Natura 2000 network sites

Managing protected areas implies dealing with complex social-ecological systems where multiple dimensions (social, institutional, economic and ecological) interact over time for the delivery of ecosystem services. Uni-dimensional and top-down management approaches have been unable to capture this complexity. Instead, new integrated approaches that acknowledge the diversity of social actors in the decision making process are required. In this paper we put forward a novel participatory assessment approach which integrates multiple methodologies to reflect different value articulating institutions in the case of a Natura 2000 network site in the Basque Country. It integrates within a social multi-criteria evaluation framework, both the economic values of ecosystem services through a choice experiment model and ecological values by means of a spatial bio-geographic assessment. By capturing confronting social and institutional conflicts in protected areas the participatory integrated assessment approach presented here can help decision makers for better planning and managing Natura 2000 sites.