Efeito do ambiente político sobre o investimento realizado por empresas estatais

Esta pesquisa aborda a influência política sobre os investimentos feitos por empresas estatais ou State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs). Para tanto, comparou-se os dados de empresas privadas com os de SOEs. O argumento empregado nessa pesquisa é que o governo utiliza sua influência sobre as SOEs para conseguir suporte para realizar mudanças nas políticas. Portanto, espera-se que quanto maior for o potencial conflito entre Principal-Principal, maiores serão os investimentos realizados pelas SOEs (H1). O conflito entre Principal-Principal (PP) ocorre quando existe o conflito de interesses entre duas categorias de principal: acionistas controladores e acionistas minoritários. O segundo argumento refere-se ao desempenho das companhias. Nesse caso, espera-se que o desempenho seja pior nas SOEs em que o estado seja o acionista majoritário (H2). Nesse estudo, foram abordadas companhias que estão listadas no mercado de ações, inclusive empresas estatais que têm o governo como seu acionista majoritário (com participação de mais de 50% no capital acionário). A base de dados utilizada neste estudo foi construída a partir de dados secundários na qual, após tratamento, é composta de 96.379 observações de empresas de 41 países entre os anos de 2002 e 2011. Esta pesquisa faz uso de um quase-experimento utilizando a técnica de diferença em diferença (Difference-in-Differences). O Quase-experimento ocorre quando um evento exógeno afeta a variável explicativa. Os resultados confirmaram a hipótese H1, porém não confirmaram a hipótese H2. Diante da análise dos resultados, este estudo sugere que os políticos usam a sua influência sobre as empresas em que o governo é o acionista majoritário com objetivo de obter ganhos políticos/privados.

Labor rights, formality and spillovers: evidence from Brazil

Nós analisamos o efeito da emenda constitucional 72/13 no Brasil, que igualou direitos trabalhistas de empregadas domésticas a aqueles de outros empregados. Mostramos que, após a legislação, uma considerável cobertura midiática e um interesse público intensificado aumentou o conhecimento geral de direitos trabalhistas de empregadas domésticas. Como consequência, o não-seguimento de legislações trabalhistas no setor de serviços domésticos ficou mais difícil. Ao mesmo tempo, a necessidade de regulamentar adicionalmente a emenda fez com que custos trabalhistas ficassem praticamente inalterados. Usando uma abordagem de diferença-em-diferenças que compara ocupações selecionadas ao longo do tempo, mostramos que a emenda -- e a discussão que ela causou -- levou a um aumento na formalização e nos salários de empregados domésticos. Então, usando a heterogeneidade do impacto da emenda em grupos demográficos, nossos resultados mostram que emprego doméstico foi reduzido e que mulheres pouco qualificadas saíram força de trabalho e foram para empregos de menor qualidade. Testes de placebo e análises de robustez indicam que nossos resultados não são explicados por diversas interpretações alternativas.

Eleição nas escolas: uma análise do impacto do diretor eleito sobre o desempenho educacional no Estado da Bahia

In Brazil, the selection of school principals is set in a decentralized manner by each state and city, such that processes may vary with time for a specific locality. In the state of Bahia, school principals were appointed by a higher political hierarchy until 2008, when schools under state administration started selecting principals by elections. The main goal of this work is to evaluate whether changing this specific rule affected students proficiency levels. This is achieved by using a panel data and difference-in-differences approachs that compares state schools (treatment group) to city schools (control group) that did not face a selection rule change and thus kept having their principals politically appointed. The databases used are Prova Brasil 2007, 2009 and 2011, the first one prior and the other two former to the policy change. Our results suggest that students attending schools with principals that are selected and elected have slightly lower mean proficiency levels both in mathematics and in portuguese exams than those attending schools with appointed principals. This result, according to the literature, could be related to perverse effects of selecting school administrators by vote, such as corporatism, clientelism and politicization of the school environment

Impacts of tertiary canal irrigation -- impact evaluation of an infrastructure project

We estimate the economic impacts of irrigation using the panel data set from rural Thailand. We employed difference-in-differences estimation and showed that tertiary irrigation has unexpected impacts. Contrary to the local experts predicitions that it should have substantial productivity impacts as it allows better water controls for farmers, we found largely zero profitability impacts. Another unexpected finding is that, while profitability is not affected, we see an increase in cultivation probability with the construction of tertiary canals. This is observed in both wet and dry seasons. This finding suggests that Thai farmers are willing to expand operation scale once they get water.

Efetividade dos instrumentos de políticas públicas nos gastos privados de P&D no Brasil

Esse trabalho teve como objetivo contribuir para o debate sobre a importância das políticas de incentivo à inovação no Brasil. Os resultados esperados do uso que as empresas fizeram dos diferentes tipos de instrumentos sobre os gastos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento (P&D) foram avaliados pelo método de diferenças em diferenças. O método permitiu obter as diferenças de gastos entre empresas beneficiárias de instrumentos e as não-beneficiárias em três períodos consecutivos: 2005 em relação à 2003; 2008 em relação à 2005 e de 2011 em relação à 2008. Ao fazer isso, foi possível identificar se tais diferenças foram positivas e significativas, podendo ser atribuídas às influências dos instrumentos. Os instrumentos utilizados foram: incentivos fiscais, Lei de Informática, financiamentos em parcerias, financiamentos sem parcerias e subvenção. E a utilização dos mesmos pelas empresas teve maior relevância no âmbito de diversos programas de apoio à inovação vigentes no país a partir da retomada das políticas industriais e tecnológicas, nos anos 2000. O estudo concluiu que os efeitos positivos e significativos são limitados à determinados grupos tecnológicos e à poucos instrumentos, em geral, de caráter fiscal. Além disso, esses efeitos positivos surgem em apenas um período, sendo que para cada grupo tecnológico foram efetuadas estimativas para três períodos. Também não houve evidências de que os instrumentos financeiros exerçam efeitos significativos sobre as decisões de gastos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento, apesar da maior ênfase dada aos mesmos no período estudado. Os resultados sugerem fraca influência dos mecanismos de apoio à P&D no Brasil sobre o aumento dos gastos privados, apesar dos avanços recentes.

Revisiting the synthetic control estimator

The synthetic control (SC) method has been recently proposed as an alternative to estimate treatment effects in comparative case studies. The SC relies on the assumption that there is a weighted average of the control units that reconstruct the potential outcome of the treated unit in the absence of treatment. If these weights were known, then one could estimate the counterfactual for the treated unit using this weighted average. With these weights, the SC would provide an unbiased estimator for the treatment effect even if selection into treatment is correlated with the unobserved heterogeneity. In this paper, we revisit the SC method in a linear factor model where the SC weights are considered nuisance parameters that are estimated to construct the SC estimator. We show that, when the number of control units is fixed, the estimated SC weights will generally not converge to the weights that reconstruct the factor loadings of the treated unit, even when the number of pre-intervention periods goes to infinity. As a consequence, the SC estimator will be asymptotically biased if treatment assignment is correlated with the unobserved heterogeneity. The asymptotic bias only vanishes when the variance of the idiosyncratic error goes to zero. We suggest a slight modification in the SC method that guarantees that the SC estimator is asymptotically unbiased and has a lower asymptotic variance than the difference-in-differences (DID) estimator when the DID identification assumption is satisfied. If the DID assumption is not satisfied, then both estimators would be asymptotically biased, and it would not be possible to rank them in terms of their asymptotic bias.

Three Essays on the Economics of International Migration [electronic resource].

requirements for Filipino performing artists, effectively closing this migration channel. I employ a difference-in-differences estimation strategy using the share of performing artists at baseline in each Philippine province as a continuous policy variable. International migration falls in response to the policy change by 1.2%. The effect on international migration is larger than the policy change itself would suggest, indicating the importance of spillovers across migrant occupations. Domestically, more children are employed, and adults are more likely to be unemployed or engaged in short-term work.

Essays on Environmental and Health Economics

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Employment effects of privatisation and foreign acquisition of Chinese state-owned enterprises

This paper investigates the effects of domestic privatisation or foreign acquisition of Chinese State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) on employment growth, using firm level data for China and a combination of propensity score matching and difference-in-differences in order to identify the causal effect. Our results suggest that, controlling for output growth there is some evidence that domestic privatisation leads to contemporaneous reductions in employment growth compared to firms that did not undergo an ownership change. By contrast, there is some evidence that foreign acquisitions show higher employment growth in the post acquisition period than non-acquired SOEs.

Grant support and exporting activity

This paper investigates whether government support can act to increase exporting activity. We use a uniquely rich data set on Irish manufacturing plants and employ an empirical strategy that combines a nonparametric matching procedure with a difference-in-differences estimator in order to deal with the potential selection problem inherent in the analysis. Our results suggest that if grants are large enough, they can encourage already exporting firms to compete more effectively on the international market. However, there is little evidence that grants encourage nonexporters to start exporting.

Three essays on the economics of defense contracting, output and income inequality

This dissertation analyzes both the economics of the defense contracting process and the impact of total dollar obligations on the economies of U.S. states. Using various econometric techniques, I will estimate relationships across individual contracts, state level output, and income inequality. I will achieve this primarily through the use of a dataset on individual contract obligations. ^ The first essay will catalog the distribution of contracts and isolate aspects of the process that contribute to contract dollar obligations. Accordingly, this study describes several characteristics about individual defense contracts, from 1966-2006: (i) the distribution of contract dollar obligations is extremely rightward skewed, (ii) contracts are unevenly distributed in a geographic sense across the United States, (iii) increased duration of a contract by 10 percent is associated with an increase in costs by 4 percent, (iv) competition does not seem to affect dollar obligations in a substantial way, (v) contract pre-payment financing increases the obligation of contracts from anywhere from 62 to 380 percent over non-financed contracts. ^ The second essay will turn to an aggregate focus, and look the impact of defense spending on state economic output. The analysis in chapter two attempts to estimate the state level fiscal multiplier, deploying Difference-in-Differences estimation as an attempt to filter out potential endogeneity bias. Interstate variation in procurement spending facilitates utilization of a natural experiment scenario, focusing on the spike in relative spending in 1982. The state level relative multiplier estimate here is 1.19, and captures the short run, impact effect of the 1982 spending spike. ^ Finally I will look at the relationship between defense contracting and income inequality. Military spending has typically been observed to have a negative relationship with income inequality. The third chapter examines the existence of this relationship, combining data on defense procurement with data on income inequality at the state level, in a longitudinal analysis across the United States. While the estimates do not suggest a significant relationship exists for the income share of the top ten percent of households, there is a significant positive relationship for the income share of top one percent households for an increase in defense procurement.^

A Decentralized Iron Cage: Do Chinese Local Officials Comply with the Central Government?

This paper contributes to the literature in nancial aid and authoritarian institutions.

For a long time, scholars are debating whether nancial aid is able to facilitate

development and governance. Though abundant evidence is provided, the answer is

still inconclusive. On the other hand, scholars investigating China argue that the

leadership uses various institutions to ensure local ocials' compliance. In this paper,

we nd that the nancial aid does not bring a positive impact and the central

government in China does not have enough monitoring capacity to force local o-

cials to comply. We study a redevelopment program established by Chinese central

government after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. By adopting a geographic regression

discontinuity combining with a dierence-in-dierences design, we show that

the redevelopment program does not signicantly develop the disaster area. On the

contrary, the evidence implies that the economy in the disaster area is worse after

receiving the aid. The results imply that local ocials do not follow the central government's

regulations and misuse the aid money for other purposes. In the future, we

expect to further investigate through which mechanism do local ocials undermine

the existing institutions.

iii

Three Essays on the Economics of Defense Contracting, Output and Income Inequality

This dissertation analyzes both the economics of the defense contracting process and the impact of total dollar obligations on the economies of U.S. states. Using various econometric techniques, I will estimate relationships across individual contracts, state level output, and income inequality. I will achieve this primarily through the use of a dataset on individual contract obligations. The first essay will catalog the distribution of contracts and isolate aspects of the process that contribute to contract dollar obligations. Accordingly, this study describes several characteristics about individual defense contracts, from 1966-2006: (i) the distribution of contract dollar obligations is extremely rightward skewed, (ii) contracts are unevenly distributed in a geographic sense across the United States, (iii) increased duration of a contract by 10 percent is associated with an increase in costs by 4 percent, (iv) competition does not seem to affect dollar obligations in a substantial way, (v) contract pre-payment financing increases the obligation of contracts from anywhere from 62 to 380 percent over non-financed contracts. The second essay will turn to an aggregate focus, and look the impact of defense spending on state economic output. The analysis in chapter two attempts to estimate the state level fiscal multiplier, deploying Difference-in-Differences estimation as an attempt to filter out potential endogeneity bias. Interstate variation in procurement spending facilitates utilization of a natural experiment scenario, focusing on the spike in relative spending in 1982. The state level relative multiplier estimate here is 1.19, and captures the short run, impact effect of the 1982 spending spike. Finally I will look at the relationship between defense contracting and income inequality. Military spending has typically been observed to have a negative relationship with income inequality. The third chapter examines the existence of this relationship, combining data on defense procurement with data on income inequality at the state level, in a longitudinal analysis across the United States. While the estimates do not suggest a significant relationship exists for the income share of the top ten percent of households, there is a significant positive relationship for the income share of top one percent households for an increase in defense procurement.

Economic Evaluations of State Policies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Eleição nas escolas: uma análise do impacto do diretor eleito sobre o desempenho educacional no Estado da Bahia

In Brazil, the selection of school principals is set in a decentralized manner by each state and city, such that processes may vary with time for a specific locality. In the state of Bahia, school principals were appointed by a higher political hierarchy until 2008, when schools under state administration started selecting principals by elections. The main goal of this work is to evaluate whether changing this specific rule affected students proficiency levels. This is achieved by using a panel data and difference-in-differences approachs that compares state schools (treatment group) to city schools (control group) that did not face a selection rule change and thus kept having their principals politically appointed. The databases used are Prova Brasil 2007, 2009 and 2011, the first one prior and the other two former to the policy change. Our results suggest that students attending schools with principals that are selected and elected have slightly lower mean proficiency levels both in mathematics and in portuguese exams than those attending schools with appointed principals. This result, according to the literature, could be related to perverse effects of selecting school administrators by vote, such as corporatism, clientelism and politicization of the school environment