Scale-selective verification of rainfall accumulations from high-resolution forecasts of convective events

The development of NWP models with grid spacing down to 1 km should produce more realistic forecasts of convective storms. However, greater realism does not necessarily mean more accurate precipitation forecasts. The rapid growth of errors on small scales in conjunction with preexisting errors on larger scales may limit the usefulness of such models. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether improved model resolution alone is able to produce more skillful precipitation forecasts on useful scales, and how the skill varies with spatial scale. A verification method will be described in which skill is determined from a comparison of rainfall forecasts with radar using fractional coverage over different sized areas. The Met Office Unified Model was run with grid spacings of 12, 4, and 1 km for 10 days in which convection occurred during the summers of 2003 and 2004. All forecasts were run from 12-km initial states for a clean comparison. The results show that the 1-km model was the most skillful over all but the smallest scales (approximately <10–15 km). A measure of acceptable skill was defined; this was attained by the 1-km model at scales around 40–70 km, some 10–20 km less than that of the 12-km model. The biggest improvement occurred for heavier, more localized rain, despite it being more difficult to predict. The 4-km model did not improve much on the 12-km model because of the difficulties of representing convection at that resolution, which was accentuated by the spinup from 12-km fields.

Fashion magazines: design implications of focus and perception variance between Chinese and UK females

A growing segment of Chinese women are willing to spend a high percentage of their income on fashion related products, however there appears to be concern over the quality of Chinese fashion magazines. Concern can be focused in two major issues: i) fashion magazine design, and ii) pictorial and textual distribution of content. This paper investigates how human factors (i.e. social norms and individual differences) influence fashion magazine design/format preferences, and investigates the difference in readership patterns between British and Chinese Women. Our study identifies significant differences between UK and Chinese readership; which has an impact on magazine viewing patterns and content preference.

Verification of European subseasonal wind speed forecasts

Analysis of the forecasts and hindcasts from the ECMWF 32-day forecast model reveals that there is statistically significant skill in predicting weekly mean wind speeds over areas of Europe at lead times of at least 14–20 days. Previous research on wind speed predictability has focused on the short- to medium-range time scales, typically finding that forecasts lose all skill by the later part of the medium-range forecast. To the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first to look beyond the medium-range time scale by taking weekly mean wind speeds, instead of averages at hourly or daily resolution, for the ECMWF monthly forecasting system. It is shown that the operational forecasts have high levels of correlation (~0.6) between the forecasts and observations over the winters of 2008–12 for some areas of Europe. Hindcasts covering 20 winters show a more modest level of correlation but are still skillful. Additional analysis examines the probabilistic skill for the United Kingdom with the application of wind power forecasting in mind. It is also shown that there is forecast “value” for end users (operating in a simple cost/loss ratio decision-making framework). End users that are sensitive to winter wind speed variability over the United Kingdom, Germany, and some other areas of Europe should therefore consider forecasts beyond the medium-range time scale as it is clear there is useful information contained within the forecast.

Context relevant persuasive interaction and design: consideration of human factors influencing B2C persuasive interaction

The revolutions of electronic and mobile commerce have opened up unique opportunities for global marketing and business to consumer (B2C) persuasive interaction; with the aim of influencing user behavior. The success or failure of such persuasive interaction is impacted by cultural, social, and personal dimensions. Accordingly, failure to consider such dimensions risks the user forming a negative attitude towards retailer’s websites or mobile applications, which subsequently threatens customer behavior. A better understanding of human factors influencing the way people perceive B2C persuasive interaction is needed. This paper is introduces the concept of a context relevant persuasive interaction and proposes a guideline for designing relevant B2C persuasive interaction.

A new method for the characterisation and verification of local spatial predictability for convective scale ensembles

The use of kilometre-scale ensembles in operational forecasting provides new challenges for forecast interpretation and evaluation to account for uncertainty on the convective scale. A new neighbourhood based method is presented for evaluating and characterising the local predictability variations from convective scale ensembles. Spatial scales over which ensemble forecasts agree (agreement scales, S^A) are calculated at each grid point ij, providing a map of the spatial agreement between forecasts. By comparing the average agreement scale obtained from ensemble member pairs (S^A(mm)_ij), with that between members and radar observations (S^A(mo)_ij), this approach allows the location-dependent spatial spread-skill relationship of the ensemble to be assessed. The properties of the agreement scales are demonstrated using an idealised experiment. To demonstrate the methods in an operational context the S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij are calculated for six convective cases run with the Met Office UK Ensemble Prediction System. The S^A(mm)_ij highlight predictability differences between cases, which can be linked to physical processes. Maps of S^A(mm)_ij are found to summarise the spatial predictability in a compact and physically meaningful manner that is useful for forecasting and for model interpretation. Comparison of S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij demonstrates the case-by-case and temporal variability of the spatial spread-skill, which can again be linked to physical processes.

Verification of the role of the low level jets in Amazon squall lines

In this study we present a climatology of the Amazon squall lines (ASLs), between the years 2000 and 2008, using satellite imagery and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses. The ASLs we are interested in are typically formed along the northern coast of Brazil and sometimes propagate for long distances inland. Results show that, on average, an ASL occurs every 2 days. ASLs are more frequent between April and June and less frequent between October and November. The years of 2005 and 2006 showed 25% more cases than the other years. This might be related to an increase of the Atlantic sea surface temperature. Of the total number of ASL cases, 54% propagated less than 170 km, 26% propagated between 170 and 400 km, and 20% propagated more than 400 km. We also studied the occurrence of low level jets (LLJs) associated with the coastal ASLs. Although LLJs are always present in the environment before the formation of the ASL and even on days without ASL cases, important differences were found, mainly related to the LLJ depths. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Design/Evaluation of A Methodology For Performance Optimization Of Indexable Carbide Inserts

In this project, two broad facets in the design of a methodology for performance optimization of indexable carbide inserts were examined. They were physical destructive testing and software simulation.For the physical testing, statistical research techniques were used for the design of the methodology. A five step method which began with Problem definition, through System identification, Statistical model formation, Data collection and Statistical analyses and results was indepthly elaborated upon. Set-up and execution of an experiment with a compression machine together with roadblocks and possible solution to curb road blocks to quality data collection were examined. 2k factorial design was illustrated and recommended for process improvement. Instances of first-order and second-order response surface analyses were encountered. In the case of curvature, test for curvature significance with center point analysis was recommended. Process optimization with method of steepest ascent and central composite design or process robustness studies of response surface analyses were also recommended.For the simulation test, AdvantEdge program was identified as the most used software for tool development. Challenges to the efficient application of this software were identified and possible solutions proposed. In conclusion, software simulation and physical testing were recommended to meet the objective of the project.

Formal verification of PLC programs using the B Method

PLCs (acronym for Programmable Logic Controllers) perform control operations, receiving information from the environment, processing it and modifying this same environment according to the results produced. They are commonly used in industry in several applications, from mass transport to petroleum industry. As the complexity of these applications increase, and as various are safety critical, a necessity for ensuring that they are reliable arouses. Testing and simulation are the de-facto methods used in the industry to do so, but they can leave flaws undiscovered. Formal methods can provide more confidence in an application s safety, once they permit their mathematical verification. We make use of the B Method, which has been successfully applied in the formal verification of industrial systems, is supported by several tools and can handle decomposition, refinement, and verification of correctness according to the specification. The method we developed and present in this work automatically generates B models from PLC programs and verify them in terms of safety constraints, manually derived from the system requirements. The scope of our method is the PLC programming languages presented in the IEC 61131-3 standard, although we are also able to verify programs not fully compliant with the standard. Our approach aims to ease the integration of formal methods in the industry through the abbreviation of the effort to perform formal verification in PLCs

VERIFICATION of THE PRESENCE of CAPSULE GENE SEQUENCES IN NASOPHARYNGEAL ISOLATES of NONTYPEABLE HAEMOPHILUS INFLUENZAE FROM HEALTHY CHILDREN AT A BRAZILIAN DAY CARE CENTER

Cinqüenta e oito cepas de Haemophilus influenzae foram isoladas da nasofaringe de crianças saudáveis que freqüentam uma creche, e através da técnica de Southern blot foi pesquisada nas cepas acapsuladas a presença de seqüências do gene capsular. Sete cepas (12%) caracterizadas sorologicamente como acapsuladas mostraram homologia com seqüências específicas da cápsula. Uma cepa foi caracterizada com uma linhagem H. influenzae tipo b cápsula deficiente.

An improved tabu-based vector optimal algorithm for design optimizations of electromagnetic devices

This paper introduces an improved tabu-based vector optimal algorithm for multiobjective optimal designs of electromagnetic devices. The improvements include a division of the entire search process, a new method for fitness assignment, a novel scheme for the generation and selection of neighborhood solutions, and so forth. Numerical results on a mathematical function and an engineering multiobjective design problem demonstrate that the proposed method can produce virtually the exact Pareto front, in both parameter and objective spaces, even though the iteration number used by it is only about 70% of that required by its ancestor.