Strategic play among family members when making long-term care decisions

This paper describes a strategic model of bargaining within a family to determine how to care for an elderly parent. We estimate the parameters of the model using data from the National Long-term Care Survey. We find that the parameter estimates generally make sense and that the model is consistent with the data. The results have strong implications for using less structural empirical models for policy analysis.

The importance of science fiction and other STEM-related mass media in young people’s decisions to enrol in university STEM courses

This paper presents Australian results from the Interests and Recruitment in Science (IRIS) study with respect to the influence of STEM-related mass media, including science fiction, on students’ decisions to enrol in university STEM courses. The study found that across the full cohort (N=2999), students tended to attribute far greater influence to science-related documentaries/channels such as Life on Earth and the Discovery Channel, etc. than to science-fiction movies or STEM-related TV dramas. Males were more inclined than females to consider science fiction/fantasy books and films and popular science books/magazines as having been important in their decisions. Students taking physics/astronomy tended to rate the importance of science fiction/fantasy books and films higher than students in other courses. The implications of these results for our understanding of influences on STEM enrolments are discussed.

When to pull the plug and when to take the plunge : timing strategic decisions about new ventures

It is not uncommon for firms to explore a new venture under the belief it will generate profits, only to find out later that although costs accumulated, profits did not materialize. To manage the high level of uncertainty involved in this process, new ventures are generally designed as vehicles of exploration (Wu, 2012) that allow for a staged investment of resources, starting with small initial investments that can be scaled up or discontinued as uncertainty is resolved over time (Folta, 1998; Li and Chi, 2013). As such, new ventures provide firms a vehicle by which they can probe an uncertain future (Brown and Eisenhardt, 1997) without fully committing early on to an irreversible course of action (Folta, Johnson, and O’Brien, 2006). Our focus in the present paper is on the timing of strategic decisions that firms make regarding their exploration ventures. Prior research in the fields of entrepreneurship, real options reasoning, and decision speed has demonstrated a link between the timing of making decisions and performance (Baum and Wally, 2003; Eisenhardt, 1989; Judge and Miller, 1991). The antecedents to the timing of decisions, however, are less understood and pose an interesting dilemma.

Making optimal and justifiable asset maintenance decisions

Maintenance decisions for large-scale asset systems are often beyond an asset manager's capacity to handle. The presence of a number of possibly conflicting decision criteria, the large number of possible maintenance policies, and the reality of budget constraints often produce complex problems, where the underlying trade-offs are not apparent to the asset manager. This paper presents the decision support tool "JOB" (Justification and Optimisation of Budgets), which has been designed to help asset managers of large systems assess, select, interpret and optimise the effects of their maintenance policies in the presence of limited budgets. This decision support capability is realized through an efficient, scalable backtracking- based algorithm for the optimisation of maintenance policies, while enabling the user to view a number of solutions near this optimum and explore tradeoffs with other decision criteria. To assist the asset manager in selecting between various policies, JOB also provides the capability of Multiple Criteria Decision Making. In this paper, the JOB tool is presented and its applicability for the maintenance of a complex power plant system.

Making smart decisions : key steps towards a typology for emergency communication during natural hazards

Governments, authorities, and organisations dedicate significant resources to encourage communities to prepare for and respond to natural hazards such as cyclones, earthquakes, floods, and bushfires. However, recent events, media attention, and ongoing academic research continue to highlight cases of non-compliance including swift water rescues. Individuals who fail to comply with instructions issued during natural hazards significantly impede the emergency response because they divert resources to compliance-enforcement and risk the lives of emergency service workers who may be required to assist them. An initial investigation of the field suggests several assumptions or practices that influence emergency management policy, communication strategy, and community behaviours during natural hazards: 1) that community members will comply with instructions issued by governments and agencies that represent the most authoritative voice, 2) that communication campaigns are shaped by intuition rather than evidence-based approaches (Wood et al., 2012), and 3) that emergency communication is linear and directional. This extended abstract represents the first stage of a collaborative research project that integrates industry and cross-disciplinary perspectives to provide evidence-based approaches for emergency and risk communication during the response and recovery phases of a natural hazard. Specifically, this abstract focuses on the approach taken and key elements that will form the development of a typology of compliance-gaining messages during the response phase of natural hazards, which will be the focus of the conference presentation.

Making informed decisions on selecting promising Work Zone Safety Treatments

Lack of detailed and accurate safety records on incidents in Australian work zones prevents a thorough understanding of the relevant risks and hazards. Consequently it is difficult to select appropriate treatments for improving the safety of roadworkers and motorists alike. This paper presents a method for making informed decisions about safety treatments by 1) identifying safety issues and hazards in work zones, 2) understanding the attitudes and perceptions of both roadworkers and motorists, 3) reviewing the effectiveness of work zone safety treatments according to existing research, and 4) incorporating local expert opinion on the feasibility and usefulness of the safety treatments. Using data collected through semi-structured interviews with roadwork personnel and online surveys of Queensland drivers, critical safety issues were identified. The effectiveness of treatments for addressing the issues was understood through rigorous literature review and consultations with local road authorities. Promising work zone safety treatments include enforcement, portable rumble strips, perceptual measures to imply reduced lane width, automated or remotely-operated traffic lights, end of queue measures, and more visible and meaningful signage.

Making decisions about antibiotic use in the Australian primary healthcare sector

Introduction Australia is contributing to the global problem of antimicrobial resistance with one of the highest rates of antibiotic use amongst OECD countries. Data from the Australian primary healthcare sector suggests unnecessary antibiotics were prescribed for conditions that will resolve without it. If left unchecked, this will result in more resistant micro-organisms, against which antibiotics will be useless. There is a lack of understanding about what is influencing decisions to use antibiotics – what factors influences general practitioners (GPs) to prescribe antibiotics, consumers to seek antibiotics, and pharmacists to fill old antibiotic prescriptions? It is also not clear how these individuals trade-off between the possible benefits that antibiotics may provide in the immediate/short term, against the longer term societal risk of antimicrobial resistance. Method This project will investigate (a) what factors drive decisions to use antibiotics for GPs, pharmacists and consumers, and (b) how these individuals discount the future. Factors will be gleaned from published literature and from a qualitative phase using semi-structured interviews, to inform the development of Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs). Three DCEs will be constructed – one for each group of interest – to allow investigation of which factors are more important in influencing (a) GPs to prescribe antibiotics, (b) consumers to seek antibiotics, and (c) pharmacists to fill legally valid but old or repeat prescriptions of antibiotics. Regression analysis will be conducted to understand the relative importance of these factors. A Time Trade Off exercise will be developed to investigate how these individuals discount the future, and whether GPs and pharmacists display the same extent of discounting the future, as consumers. Expected Results Findings from the DCEs will provide an insight into which factors are more important in driving decision making in antibiotic use for GPs, pharmacists and consumers. Findings from the Time Trade Off exercise will show what individuals are willing to trade for preserving the miracle of antibiotics. Conclusion The emergence of antibiotic resistance is inevitable. This research will expand on what is currently known about influencing desired behaviour change in antibiotic use, in the fight against antibiotic resistance. Real World Implications Research findings will contribute to existing national programs to bring about a reduction in inappropriate use of antibiotic in Australia. Specifically, influencing (1) how key messages and public health campaigns are crafted to increase health literacy, and (2) clinical education and empowerment of GPs and pharmacists to play a more responsive role as stewards of antibiotic use in the community.

Heartbeat and economic decisions : observing mental stress among proposers and responders in the ultimatum bargaining game

The ultimatum bargaining game (UBG), a widely used method in experimental economics, clearly demonstrates that motives other than pure monetary reward play a role in human economic decision making. In this study, we explore the behaviour and physiological reactions of both responders and proposers in an ultimatum bargaining game using heart rate variability (HRV), a small and nonintrusive technology that allows observation of both sides of an interaction in a normal experimental economics laboratory environment. We find that low offers by a proposer cause signs of mental stress in both the proposer and the responder; that is, both exhibit high ratios of low to high frequency activity in the HRV spectrum.

Medical negligence, causation and liability for non-disclosure of risk : a post-wallace framework and critique

Through an examination of Wallace v Kam, this article considers and evaluates the law of causation in the specific context of a medical practitioner’s duty to provide information to patients concerning material risks of treatment. To supply a contextual background for the analysis which follows, Part II summarises the basic principles of causation law, while Part III provides an overview of the case and the reasoning adopted in the decisions at first instance and on appeal. With particular emphasis upon the reasoning in the courts of appeal, Part IV then examines the implications of the case in the context of other jurisprudence in this field and, in so doing, provides a framework for a structured consideration of causation issues in future non-disclosure cases under the Australian civil liability legislation. As will become clear, Wallace was fundamentally decided on the basis of policy reasoning centred upon the purpose behind the legal duty violated. Although the plurality in Rogers v Whitaker rejected the utility of expressions such as ‘the patient’s right of self-determination’ in this context, some Australian jurisprudence may be thought to frame the practitioner’s duty to warn in terms of promoting a patient’s autonomy, or right to decide whether to submit to treatment proposed. Accordingly, the impact of Wallace upon the protection of this right, and the interrelation between it and the duty to warn’s purpose, is investigated. The analysis in Part IV also evaluates the courts’ reasoning in Wallace by questioning the extent to which Wallace’s approach to liability and causal connection in non-disclosure of risk cases: depends upon the nature and classification of the risk(s) in question; and can be reconciled with the way in which patients make decisions. Finally, Part V adopts a comparative approach by considering whether the same decision might be reached if Wallace was determined according to English law.

Making robust decisions for conservation with restricted money and knowledge

1. In conservation decision-making, we operate within the confines of limited funding. Furthermore, we often assume particular relationships between management impact and our investment in management. The structure of these relationships, however, is rarely known with certainty - there is model uncertainty. We investigate how these two fundamentally limiting factors in conservation management, money and knowledge, impact optimal decision-making. 2. We use information-gap decision theory to find strategies for maximizing the number of extant subpopulations of a threatened species that are most immune to failure due to model uncertainty. We thus find a robust framework for exploring optimal decision-making. 3. The performance of every strategy decreases as model uncertainty increases. 4. The strategy most robust to model uncertainty depends not only on what performance is perceived to be acceptable but also on available funding and the time horizon over which extinction is considered. 5. Synthesis and applications. We investigate the impact of model uncertainty on robust decision-making in conservation and how this is affected by available conservation funding. We show that subpopulation triage can be a natural consequence of robust decision-making. We highlight the need for managers to consider triage not as merely giving up, but as a tool for ensuring species persistence in light of the urgency of most conservation requirements, uncertainty and the poor state of conservation funding. We illustrate this theory by a specific application to allocation of funding to reduce poaching impact on the Sumatran tiger Panthera tigris sumatrae in Kerinci Seblat National Park. © 2008 The Authors.

A model-framed evaluation of elephant effects on tree and fire dynamics in African savannas

There is a concern that high densities of elephants in southern Africa could lead to the overall reduction of other forms of biodiversity. We present a grid-based model of elephant-savanna dynamics, which differs from previous elephant-vegetation models by accounting for woody plant demographics, tree-grass interactions, stochastic environmental variables (fire and rainfall), and spatial contagion of fire and tree recruitment. The model projects changes in height structure and spatial pattern of trees over periods of centuries. The vegetation component of the model produces long-term tree-grass coexistence, and the emergent fire frequencies match those reported for southern African savannas. Including elephants in the savanna model had the expected effect of reducing woody plant cover, mainly via increased adult tree mortality, although at an elephant density of 1.0 elephant/km2, woody plants still persisted for over a century. We tested three different scenarios in addition to our default assumptions. (1) Reducing mortality of adult trees after elephant use, mimicking a more browsing-tolerant tree species, mitigated the detrimental effect of elephants on the woody population. (2) Coupling germination success (increased seedling recruitment) to elephant browsing further increased tree persistence, and (3) a faster growing woody component allowed some woody plant persistence for at least a century at a density of 3 elephants/km2. Quantitative models of the kind presented here provide a valuable tool for exploring the consequences of management decisions involving the manipulation of elephant population densities. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Towards making informed decisions on selecting promising work zone safety treatments

Lack of detailed and accurate safety records on incidents in Australian work zones prevents a thorough understanding of the relevant risks and hazards. Consequently it is difficult to select appropriate treatments for improving the safety of roadworkers and motorists alike. This paper outlines development of a conceptual framework for making informed decisions about safety treatments by: 1) identifying safety issues and hazards in work zones; 2) understanding the attitudes and perceptions of both roadworkers and motorists; 3) reviewing the effectiveness of work zone safety treatments according to existing research, and; 4) incorporating local expert opinion on the feasibility and usefulness of the safety treatments. Using data collected through semi-structured interviews with roadwork personnel and online surveys of Queensland drivers, critical safety issues were identified. The effectiveness of treatments for addressing the issues was understood through rigorous literature review and consultations with local road authorities. Promising work zone safety treatments include enforcement, portable rumble strips, perceptual measures to imply reduced lane width, automated or remotely-operated traffic lights, end of queue measures, and more visible and meaningful signage.

Use of online health information to manage children’s health care: A prospective study investigating parental decisions

Background The use of the internet to access information is rapidly increasing; however, the quality of health information provided on various online sites is questionable. We aimed to examine the underlying factors that guide parents' decisions to use online information to manage their child's health care, a behaviour which has not yet been explored systematically. Methods Parents (N=391) completed a questionnaire assessing the standard theory of planned behaviour (TPB) measures of attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control (PBC), and intention as well as the underlying TPB belief-based items (i.e., behavioural, normative, and control beliefs) in addition to a measure of perceived risk and demographic variables. Two months later, consenting parents completed a follow-up telephone questionnaire which assessed the decisions they had made regarding their use of online information to manage their child's health care during the previous 2 months. Results We found support for the TPB constructs of attitude, subjective norm, and PBC as well as the additional construct of perceived risk in predicting parents' intentions to use online information to manage their child's health care, with further support found for intentions, but not PBC, in predicting parents' behaviour. The results of the TPB belief-based analyses also revealed important information about the critical beliefs that guide parents' decisions to engage in this child health management behaviour. Conclusions This theory-based investigation to understand parents' motivations and online information-seeking behaviour is key to developing recommendations and policies to guide more appropriate help-seeking actions among parents.

Pull the plug or take the plunge: Multiple opportunities and the speed of venturing decisions in the Australian mining industry

Effectively capturing opportunities requires rapid decision-making. We investigate the speed of opportunity evaluation decisions by focusing on firms' venture termination and venture advancement decisions. Experience, standard operating procedures, and confidence allow firms to make opportunity evaluation decisions faster; we propose that a firm's attentional orientation, as reflected in its project portfolio, limits the number of domains in which these speed-enhancing mechanisms can be developed. Hence firms' decision speed is likely to vary between different types of decisions. Using unique data on 3,269 mineral exploration ventures in the Australian mining industry, we find that firms with a higher degree of attention toward earlier-stage exploration activities are quicker to abandon potential opportunities in early development but slower to do so later, and that such firms are also slower to advance on potential opportunities at all stages compared to firms that focus their attention differently. Market dynamism moderates these relationships, but only with regard to initial evaluation decisions. Our study extends research on decision speed by showing that firms are not necessarily fast or slow regarding all the decisions they make, and by offering an opportunity evaluation framework that recognizes that decision makers can, in fact often do, pursue multiple potential opportunities simultaneously.