Decision making processes based on innovation indicators: which implications for technology assessment?

Based on the report for “Project IV” unit of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment. This thesis research has the supervision of António Moniz (FCT-UNL and ITAS-KIT) and Manuel Laranja (ISEG-UTL). Other members of the thesis committee are Stefan Kuhlmann (Twente University), Leonhard Hennen (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology-ITAS), Tiago Santos Pereira (Universidade de Coimbra/CES) and Cristina Sousa (FCT-UNL).

A decision- theoretic model for M&A sale processes

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Double Degree in Economics and International Business from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics and Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa

Effects of anxiety on visuospatial pattern discrimination and decision-making processes: what can we learn from brain dynamics ?

Detection and discrimination of visuospatial input involve at least extracting, selecting and encoding relevant information and decision-making processes allowing selecting a response. These two operations are altered, respectively, by attentional mechanisms that change discrimination capacities, and by beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events. Information processing is tuned by the attentional level that acts like a filter on perception, while decision-making processes are weighed by subjective probability of risk. In addition, it has been shown that anxiety could affect the detection of unexpected events through the modification of the level of arousal. Consequently, purpose of this study concerns whether and how decision-making and brain dynamics are affected by anxiety. To investigate these questions, the performance of women with either a high (12) or a low (12) STAI-T (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Spielberger, 1983) was examined in a decision-making visuospatial task where subjects have to recognize a target visual pattern from non-target patterns. The target pattern was a schematic image of furniture arranged in such a way as to give the impression of a living room. Non-target patterns were created by either the compression or the dilatation of the distances between objects. Target and non-target patterns were always presented in the same configuration. Preliminary behavioral results show no group difference in reaction time. In addition, visuo-spatial abilities were analyzed trough the signal detection theory for quantifying perceptual decisions in the presence of uncertainty (Green and Swets, 1966). This theory treats detection of a stimulus as a decision-making process determined by the nature of the stimulus and cognitive factors. Astonishingly, no difference in d' (corresponding to the distance between means of the distributions) and c (corresponds to the likelihood ratio) indexes was observed. Comparison of Event-related potentials (ERP) reveals that brain dynamics differ according to anxiety. It shows differences in component latencies, particularly a delay in anxious subjects over posterior electrode sites. However, these differences are compensated during later components by shorter latencies in anxious subjects compared to non-anxious one. These inverted effects seem indicate that the absence of difference in reaction time rely on a compensation of attentional level that tunes cortical activation in anxious subjects, but they have to hammer away to maintain performance.

Technology selection and group decision support systems: Case studies on supporting strategic technology selection processes

The objective of the dissertation is to increase understanding and knowledge in the field where group decision support system (GDSS) and technology selection research overlap in the strategic sense. The purpose is to develop pragmatic, unique and competent management practices and processes for strategic technology assessment and selection from the whole company's point of view. The combination of the GDSS and technology selection is approached from the points of view of the core competence concept, the lead user -method, and different technology types. In this research the aim is to find out how the GDSS contributes to the technology selection process, what aspects should be considered when selecting technologies to be developed or acquired, and what advantages and restrictions the GDSS has in the selection processes. These research objectives are discussed on the basis of experiences and findings in real life selection meetings. The research has been mainly carried outwith constructive, case study research methods. The study contributes novel ideas to the present knowledge and prior literature on the GDSS and technology selection arena. Academic and pragmatic research has been conducted in four areas: 1) the potential benefits of the group support system with the lead user -method,where the need assessment process is positioned as information gathering for the selection of wireless technology development projects; 2) integrated technology selection and core competencies management processes both in theory and in practice; 3) potential benefits of the group decision support system in the technology selection processes of different technology types; and 4) linkages between technology selection and R&D project selection in innovative product development networks. New type of knowledge and understanding has been created on the practical utilization of the GDSS in technology selection decisions. The study demonstrates that technology selection requires close cooperation between differentdepartments, functions, and strategic business units in order to gather the best knowledge for the decision making. The GDSS is proved to be an effective way to promote communication and co-operation between the selectors. The constructs developed in this study have been tested in many industry fields, for example in information and communication, forest, telecommunication, metal, software, and miscellaneous industries, as well as in non-profit organizations. The pragmatic results in these organizations are some of the most relevant proofs that confirm the scientific contribution of the study, according to the principles of the constructive research approach.

Customer Research on a Group of European Book Publishers: Trends, Modes of Operation and Decision-Making Processes

Työn päätarkoitus oli tuottaa Stora Enson käyttöön tietoa kirjakustantajista, yhdestä yrityksen asiakassegmentistä. Yritys oli kiinnostunut useista asioista, jotka koskivat asiakkaita ja heidän mielipiteitään. Tarkoitus on, että Stora Enso voi käyttää tutkimuksella koottua tietoa oman toimintansa suunnittelun tukena. Kerätty sekundääritieto esittelee eurooppalaisen kirjakustantamisen nykytilaa ja tulevaisuutta sekä teorioita, jotka tukevat tutkittuja aihealueita. Primääritieto kerättiin henkilökohtaisilla haastatteluilla. Otanta koostui kymmenestä kirjakustantajasta, jotka toimivat Suomessa sekä Stora Enson päämarkkina-alueilla. Tutkimus tarjoaa päivitetyn kuvauksen kirjakustantamisesta. Haastateltavien mielipiteet alan trendeistä olivat yhteneviä yleisen mielipiteen kanssa, eikä suuria mielipide-eroavaisuuksia havaittu. Kustantajien toimintatapoja ja päätöksentekoprosesseja voidaan kuvata monimutkaisiksi, koska useat asiat vaikuttavat kirjan syntyyn ja paperin ostoprosessiin. Lisäksi tutkimus esittelee haastateltavien mielipiteitä paperin merkityksestä heidän liiketoiminnassaan.

Organization of the marketing communication activities after fusion - the integration and the decision making processes

This master’s thesis was made in order to gain answers to the question of how the integration of the marketing communications and the decision making related to it in a geographically dispersed service organization could be improved in a situation where an organization has gone through a merger. The effects of the organizational design dimensions towards the integration of the marketing communications and the decision making related to it was the main focus. A case study as a research strategy offered a perfect frames for an exploratory study and the data collection was conducted by semi-structured interviews and observing. The main finding proved that from the chosen design dimensions, decentralization, coordination and power, could be found specific factors that in a geographically dispersed organization are affecting the integration of the marketing communications negatively. The effects can be seen mostly in the decision making processes, roles and in the division of responsibility, which are affecting the other dimensions and by this, the integration. In a post-merger situation, the coordination dimension and especially the information asymmetry and the information flow seem to have a largest affect towards the integration of the marketing communications. An asymmetric information distribution with the lack of business and marketing education resulted in low self-assurance and at the end in fragmented management and to the inability to set targets and make independent decisions. As conclusions it can be stated, that with the organizational design dimensions can the effects of a merger towards the integration process of the marketing communications to be evaluated.

Exploring the Ethical Decision-Making Processes of Community Care Providers

While there has been a recent shift away from isolated, institutionalized living conditions, persons with Intellectual Disabilities (ID) may still experience restricted access to choice when it comes to making decisions about the basic aspects of their lives. A tension remains between protecting individuals from harm and promoting their right to independence and personal liberties. This tension creates complex questions and ethical concerns for care providers supporting persons with ID. This study explored the ethical decision-making processes of care providers and specifically, how care providers describe the balance of protecting supported individuals from harm while promoting their right to self-determination. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with six care providers employed by a local community agency that supports young and older adults with ID. Data were analysed using thematic analysis and broader themes were developed following phases of open and selective coding. Results indicated that care providers described ethical decision-making processes as frequent, complex, subjective, and uncomfortable. All participants described the importance of promoting independent decision-making among the individuals they support and assisting supported individuals to make informed decisions. Participants also reported work colleagues and supervisors as primary sources of information when resolving ethical concerns. This suggests that complex ethical decision-making processes are being taken seriously by care providers and supervising staff. The results of this study are well-positioned to be applied to the development of a training program for frontline care providing staff supporting individuals in community care settings.

Mathematical modelling of decision making processes in construction projects

Many different individuals, who have their own expertise and criteria for decision making, are involved in making decisions on construction projects. Decision-making processes are thus significantly affected by communication, in which a dynamic performance of human intentions leads to unpredictable outcomes. In order to theorise the decision making processes including communication, it is argued here that the decision making processes resemble evolutionary dynamics in terms of both selection and mutation, which can be expressed by the replicator-mutator equation. To support this argument, a mathematical model of decision making has been made from an analogy with evolutionary dynamics, in which there are three variables: initial support rate, business hierarchy, and power of persuasion. On the other hand, a survey of patterns in decision making in construction projects has also been performed through self-administered mail questionnaire to construction practitioners. Consequently, comparison between the numerical analysis of mathematical model and the statistical analysis of empirical data has shown a significant potential of the replicator-mutator equation as a tool to study dynamic properties of intentions in communication.

Integration of cognitive and affective processes in perception and decision-making

The relationship between emotion and cognition is a topic that raises great interest in research. Recently, a view of these two processes as interactive and mutually influencing each other has become predominant. This dissertation investigates the reciprocal influences of emotion and cognition, both at behavioral and neural level, in two specific fields, such as attention and decision-making. Experimental evidence on how emotional responses may affect perceptual and attentional processes has been reported. In addition, the impact of three factors, such as personality traits, motivational needs and social context, in modulating the influence that emotion exerts on perception and attention has been investigated. Moreover, the influence of cognition on emotional responses in decision-making has been demonstrated. The current experimental evidence showed that cognitive brain regions such as the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex are causally implicated in regulation of emotional responses and that this has an effect at both pre and post decisional stages. There are two main conclusions of this dissertation: firstly, emotion exerts a strong influence on perceptual and attentional processes but, at the same time, this influence may also be modulated by other factors internal and external to the individuals. Secondly, cognitive processes may modulate emotional prepotent responses, by serving a regulative function critical to driving and shaping human behavior in line with current goals.

Path Dependence in Decision-Making Processes: Exploring the Impact of Complexity under Increasing Returns

The development of path-dependent processes basically refers to positive feedback in terms of increasing returns as the main driving forces of such processes. Furthermore, path dependence can be affected by context factors, such as different degrees of complexity. Up to now, it has been unclear whether and how different settings of complexity impact path-dependent processes and the probability of lock-in. In this paper we investigate the relationship between environmental complexity and path dependence by means of an experimental study. By focusing on the mode of information load and decision quality in chronological sequences, the study explores the impact of complexity on decision-making processes. The results contribute to both the development of path-dependence theory and a better understanding of decision-making behavior under conditions of positive feedback. Since previous path research has mostly applied qualitative case-study research and (to a minor part) simulations, this paper makes a further contribution by establishing an experimental approach for research on path dependence.

The Europeanization of Swiss Decision-Making Processes

Europeanization has been at the core of two research projects on decision-making processes in Switzerland that we carried out over the last decade. Interestingly enough, Europeanization was initially not supposed to be the central focus of these projects: The first was broader in scope, as it dealt with the effects of globalization and internationalization, and the second was agnostic with respect to Europeanization – it looked at the characteristics of the most important decision-making processes and structures in contemporary Switzerland, and at the related changes that have taken place since the 1970s. However, in both projects Europeanization has imposed itself as a crucial variable, if not as the most crucial variable. We use insights from these two research projects – and from a database on the legislative acts of the 1995-2006 period that emerged from these projects – to address the questions raised by the initiators of this debate and, more especially, to highlight what effects Europeanization has on decision-making processes and related power and conflict structures among actors.