Analisi espacial del canvi climàtic al continent europeu. Incerteses i exposicions principals

El canvi climàtic del segle XXI és una realitat, hi ha moltes evidències científiques que indiquen que l’escalfament del sistema climàtic és inequívoc. Malgrat això, també hi ha moltes incerteses respecte els impactes que pot comportar aquest canvi climàtic global. L’objectiu d’aquest projecte és estudiar la possible evolució futura de tres variables climàtiques, que són el rang de la temperatura diürna a prop de la superfície (DTR), la temperatura mitjana a prop de la superfície (MT) i la precipitació mensual (PL_mes) i valorar l’exposició que poden experimentar diferents cobertes del sòl i diferents regions biogeogràfiques del continent europeu davant d’aquests possibles patrons de canvi. Per això s’han utilitzat Models Climàtics Globals que fan projeccions de variables climàtiques que permeten preveure el possible clima futur. Mitjançant l’aplicatiu informàtic Tetyn s’han extret els paràmetres climàtics dels conjunts de dades del Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, del futur (TYN SC) i del passat (CRU TS). Les variables obtingudes s’han processat amb eines de sistemes d’informació geogràfica (SIG) per obtenir els patrons de canvi de les variables a cada coberta del sòl. Els resultats obtinguts mostren que hi ha una gran variabilitat, que augmenta amb el temps, entre els diferents models climàtics i escenaris considerats, que posa de manifest la incertesa associada a la modelització climàtica, a la generació d’escenaris d’emissions i a la naturalesa dinàmica i no determinista del sistema climàtic. Però en general, mostren que les glaceres seran una de les cobertes més exposades al canvi climàtic, i la mediterrània, una de les regions més vulnerables

Estrategies per la inversió tridimensional de dades magnetotel.lúriques:

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies, Irlanda, entre setembre i desembre del 2009.En els últims anys s’ha realitzat un important avanç en la modelització tridimensional en magnetotel•lúrica (MT) gracies a l'augment d’algorismes d’inversió tridimensional disponibles. Aquests codis utilitzen diferents formulacions del problema (diferències finites, elements finits o equacions integrals), diverses orientacions del sistema de coordenades i, o bé en el conveni de signe, més o menys, en la dependència temporal. Tanmateix, les impedàncies resultants per a tots els valors d'aquests codis han de ser les mateixes una vegada que es converteixen a un conveni de signe comú i al mateix sistema de coordenades. Per comparar els resultats dels diferents codis hem dissenyat models diferents de resistivitats amb estructures tridimensional incrustades en un subsòl homogeni. Un requisit fonamental d’aquests models és que generin impedàncies amb valors importants en els elements de la diagonal, que no són menyspreables. A diferència dels casos del modelització de dades magnetotel.lúriques unidimensionals i bidimensionals, pel al cas tridimensional aquests elements de les diagonals del tensor d'impedància porten informació sobre l'estructura de la resistivitat. Un dels models de terreny s'utilitza per comparar els diferents algoritmes que és la base per posterior inversió dels diferents codis. Aquesta comparació va ser seguida de la inversió per recuperar el conjunt de dades d'una estructura coneguda.

Immigration and the school system

Immigration is an important problem in many societies, and it has wide-ranging effects on the educational systems of host countries. There is a now a large empirical literature, but very little theoretical work on this topic. We introduce a model of family immigration in a framework where school quality and student outcomes are determined endogenously. This allows us to explain the selection of immigrants in terms of parental motivation and the policies which favor a positive selection. Also, we can study the effect of immigration on the school system and how school quality may self-reinforce immigrants' and natives' choices.

Two necessary conditions for strategy-proofness: on what domains are they also sufficient?

A social choice function may or may not satisfy a desirable property depending on its domain of definition. For the same reason, different conditions may be equivalent for functions defined on some domains, while different in other cases. Understanding the role of domains is therefore a crucial issue in mechanism design. We illustrate this point by analyzing the role of different conditions that are always related, but not always equivalent to strategy-proofness. We define two very natural conditions that are necessary for strategy-proofness: monotonicity and reshuffling invariance. We remark that they are not always sufficient. Then, we identify a domain condition, called intertwinedness, that ensures the equivalence between our two conditions and that of strategy-proofness. We prove that some important domains are intertwined: those of single-peaked preferences, both with public and private goods, and also those arising in simple models of house allocation. We prove that other necessary conditions for strategy-proofness also become equivalent to ours when applied to functions defined on intertwined domains, even if they are not equivalent in general. We also study the relationship between our domain restrictions and others that appear in the literature, proving that we are indeed introducing a novel proposal.

Integració d'un business intelligence en un ERP

Aquest projecte mostra la importància que pot tenir un sistema basat en Business Intelligence, dins d’una empresa o organització, donant una eina per augmentar la competitivitat, treballant les dades que s’obtenen dels diferents sistemes de gestió que hi ha dins l’empresa. Aquest gran nombre de dades històriques les transformarem per formar una base de dades de qualitat, i les explorarem per tal d’extreure’n informació útil en format gràfic, per ajudar a la pressa de decisions per part dels directius.

Estudio y construcción de herramientas de validación HTML

The Final Year Project consists of two essentially different parts, which share acommon theme: HTML code validation. The first of these two parts focuses on the study of the validation process. It supplies a brief introduction to the evolution of HTML and XHTML, the new tags introduced in HTML5 and the most common errors found in today's websites. Already developed HTML validation tools are analyzed and examined in detail in order to compare their features and evaluate their performances. Lastly, a comparison of the parsing process in the most common browsers found nowadays is provided. In the second part of the project the focus of the project is shifted towards the development of a XHTML5 validation tool. The input is a XHTML5 file whose content may or may not comply with the W3C specification, and therefore, may or may not be a valid XHTML5 document. The output provided by this tool will be a fixed XHTML5 document and an error log returned in the form of a XML file. Information as to the course of action pursued to fix the error and its location will also be included.

Predicting random level and seasonality of hotel prices. A structural equation growth curve approach

This article examines the effect on price of different characteristics of holiday hotels in the sun-and-beach segment, under the hedonic function perspective. Monthly prices of the majority of hotels in the Spanish continental Mediterranean coast are gathered from May to October 1999 from the tour operator catalogues. Hedonic functions are specified as random-effect models and parametrized as structural equation models with two latent variables, a random peak season price and a random width of seasonal fluctuations. Characteristics of the hotel and the region where they are located are used as predictors of both latent variables. Besides hotel category, region, distance to the beach, availability of parking place and room equipment have an effect on peak price and also on seasonality. 3- star hotels have the highest seasonality and hotels located in the southern regions the lowest, which could be explained by a warmer climate in autumn

Mixing compositions and other scales

Theory of compositional data analysis is often focused on the composition only. However in practical applications we often treat a composition together with covariableswith some other scale. This contribution systematically gathers and develop statistical tools for this situation. For instance, for the graphical display of the dependenceof a composition with a categorical variable, a colored set of ternary diagrams mightbe a good idea for a first look at the data, but it will fast hide important aspects ifthe composition has many parts, or it takes extreme values. On the other hand colored scatterplots of ilr components could not be very instructive for the analyst, if theconventional, black-box ilr is used.Thinking on terms of the Euclidean structure of the simplex, we suggest to set upappropriate projections, which on one side show the compositional geometry and on theother side are still comprehensible by a non-expert analyst, readable for all locations andscales of the data. This is e.g. done by defining special balance displays with carefully-selected axes. Following this idea, we need to systematically ask how to display, explore,describe, and test the relation to complementary or explanatory data of categorical, real,ratio or again compositional scales.This contribution shows that it is sufficient to use some basic concepts and very fewadvanced tools from multivariate statistics (principal covariances, multivariate linearmodels, trellis or parallel plots, etc.) to build appropriate procedures for all these combinations of scales. This has some fundamental implications in their software implementation, and how might they be taught to analysts not already experts in multivariateanalysis

Virus infection speeds: theory versus experiment

In order to explain the speed of Vesicular Stomatitis Virus VSV infections, we develop a simple model that improves previous approaches to the propagation of virus infections. For VSV infections, we find that the delay time elapsed between the adsorption of a viral particle into a cell and the release of its progeny has a veryimportant effect. Moreover, this delay time makes the adsorption rate essentially irrelevant in order to predict VSV infection speeds. Numerical simulations are in agreement with the analytical results. Our model satisfactorily explains the experimentally measured speeds of VSV infections

Spatial Analysis of Cell Composition Data

A version of Matheron’s discrete Gaussian model is applied to cell composition data.The examples are for map patterns of felsic metavolcanics in two different areas. Q-Qplots of the model for cell values representing proportion of 10 km x 10 km cell areaunderlain by this rock type are approximately linear, and the line of best fit can be usedto estimate the parameters of the model. It is also shown that felsic metavolcanics in theAbitibi area of the Canadian Shield can be modeled as a fractal

Thermodynamics and log–contrast analysis in fluid geochemistry

There are two principal chemical concepts that are important for studying the naturalenvironment. The first one is thermodynamics, which describes whether a system is atequilibrium or can spontaneously change by chemical reactions. The second main conceptis how fast chemical reactions (kinetics or rate of chemical change) take place wheneverthey start. In this work we examine a natural system in which both thermodynamics andkinetic factors are important in determining the abundance of NH+4 , NO−2 and NO−3 insuperficial waters. Samples were collected in the Arno Basin (Tuscany, Italy), a system inwhich natural and antrophic effects both contribute to highly modify the chemical compositionof water. Thermodynamical modelling based on the reduction-oxidation reactionsinvolving the passage NH+4 -& NO−2 -& NO−3 in equilibrium conditions has allowed todetermine the Eh redox potential values able to characterise the state of each sample and,consequently, of the fluid environment from which it was drawn. Just as pH expressesthe concentration of H+ in solution, redox potential is used to express the tendency of anenvironment to receive or supply electrons. In this context, oxic environments, as thoseof river systems, are said to have a high redox potential because O2 is available as anelectron acceptor.Principles of thermodynamics and chemical kinetics allow to obtain a model that oftendoes not completely describe the reality of natural systems. Chemical reactions may indeedfail to achieve equilibrium because the products escape from the site of the rectionor because reactions involving the trasformation are very slow, so that non-equilibriumconditions exist for long periods. Moreover, reaction rates can be sensitive to poorly understoodcatalytic effects or to surface effects, while variables as concentration (a largenumber of chemical species can coexist and interact concurrently), temperature and pressurecan have large gradients in natural systems. By taking into account this, data of 91water samples have been modelled by using statistical methodologies for compositionaldata. The application of log–contrast analysis has allowed to obtain statistical parametersto be correlated with the calculated Eh values. In this way, natural conditions in whichchemical equilibrium is hypothesised, as well as underlying fast reactions, are comparedwith those described by a stochastic approach

Studies about the atomic capabilities concept for linear control systems in physical multi-agent environments

This paper shows the impact of the atomic capabilities concept to include control-oriented knowledge of linear control systems in the decisions making structure of physical agents. These agents operate in a real environment managing physical objects (e.g. their physical bodies) in coordinated tasks. This approach is presented using an introspective reasoning approach and control theory based on the specific tasks of passing a ball and executing the offside manoeuvre between physical agents in the robotic soccer testbed. Experimental results and conclusions are presented, emphasising the advantages of our approach that improve the multi-agent performance in cooperative systems

Compositional Time Series: An Application

The composition of the labour force is an important economic factor for a country.Often the changes in proportions of different groups are of interest.I this paper we study a monthly compositional time series from the Swedish LabourForce Survey from 1994 to 2005. Three models are studied: the ILR-transformed series,the ILR-transformation of the compositional differenced series of order 1, and the ILRtransformationof the compositional differenced series of order 12. For each of thethree models a VAR-model is fitted based on the data 1994-2003. We predict the timeseries 15 steps ahead and calculate 95 % prediction regions. The predictions of thethree models are compared with actual values using MAD and MSE and the predictionregions are compared graphically in a ternary time series plot.We conclude that the first, and simplest, model possesses the best predictive power ofthe three models

A continuous strain-space model of viral evolution within a host

Viruses rapidly evolve, and HIV in particular is known to be one of the fastest evolving human viruses. It is now commonly accepted that viral evolution is the cause of the intriguing dynamics exhibited during HIV infections and the ultimate success of the virus in its struggle with the immune system. To study viral evolution, we use a simple mathematical model of the within-host dynamics of HIV which incorporates random mutations. In this model, we assume a continuous distribution of viral strains in a one-dimensional phenotype space where random mutations are modelled by di ffusion. Numerical simulations show that random mutations combined with competition result in evolution towards higher Darwinian fitness: a stable traveling wave of evolution, moving towards higher levels of fi tness, is formed in the phenoty space.

Planteamiento y optimización de experimentos analíticos

En el prosent projecte s'introduirà la teoria del disseny estadístic d'experiments i ens endinsarem amb més profunditat en els dissenys factorials complerts. Aquest tipus de dissenys, són d'aplicació en sistemes en els que es desitja estudiar la influència que tenen els k factors sobre una variable resposta. Els dissenys factorials complerts, són aquells en els que els k factors poden prendre diversos nivells, i es contemplen totes les posibles combinacions entre ells. Aquest projecte es centrarà més concretament en els dissenys factorials complerts 2, on el número 2 indica que cadascun els factors pren 2 nivells diferents. S'explicarà la teoria corresponent a aquests dissenys amb l'ajuda de diversos exemples, explicant des de un disseny factorial en el que s'estudia la influència de 2 factros (2), fins a un en el que s'estudia la influència de 4 factors (2). També s'ha introduït alguns mètodes que ens ajudaran a trobar models matemàtics que s'ajustin al sistema, i algunes metodologies d'optimització com la metodologia de superficie de resposta o el mètode simplex, per poder treure el màxim partit als nostres recursos. Una vegada introduïts tots aquests conceptes, es procedirà a realitzar un estudi i optimització d'una reacció química que consisteix en l'eliminació del coure d'una dissolució per a la posterior utilització d'aquesta dissolució en la industria per a l'extracció d'or i plata. El segon cas d'aplicació serà la realització de l'estudi i optimització del procés d'obtenció de biodièsel. En ambdós casos s'aplicarà un disseny factorial complet 2, però en cada un s'aplicarà una metodologia diferent per realitzar la optimització. Donat que aquest és un projecte purament centrat en el disseny d'experiments i en el tractament de les dades obtingudes, l'experimentació no ha sigut realitzada per nosaltres, sinó que la informació referent a la mateixa s'ha obtingut d'articles acadèmics realitzats per diferents universitats que han realitzat els estudis corresponents.