Metodología de Ejecución y Explotación de los Ensayos en Vuelo de Flameo

El flameo o flutter es un fenómeno vibratorio debido a la interacción de fuerzas inerciales, elásticas y aerodinámicas. Consiste en un intercambio de energía, que se puede observar en el cambio de amortiguamientos, entre dos o más modos estructurales, denominados modos críticos, cuyas frecuencias tienden a acercarse (coalescencia de frecuencias). Los ensayos en vuelo de flameo suponen un gran riesgo debido a la posibilidad de una perdida brusca de estabilidad aeroelástica (flameo explosivo) con la posibilidad de destrucción de la aeronave. Además existen otros fenómenos asociados que pueden aparecer como el LCO (Limit Cycle Oscillation) y la interacción con los mandos de vuelo. Debido a esto, se deben llevar a cabo análisis exhaustivos, que incluyen GVT (vibraciones en tierra), antes de comenzar los ensayos en vuelo, y estos últimos deben ser ejecutados con robustos procedimientos. El objetivo de los ensayos es delimitar la frontera de estabilidad sin llegar a ella, manteniéndose siempre dentro de la envolvente estable de vuelo. Para lograrlo se necesitan métodos de predicción, siendo el “Flutter Margin”, el más utilizado. Para saber cuánta estabilidad aeroelástica tiene el avión y lo lejos que está de la frontera de estabilidad (a través de métodos de predicción) los parámetros modales, en particular la frecuencia y el amortiguamiento, son de vital importancia. El ensayo en vuelo consiste en la excitación de la estructura a diferentes condiciones de vuelo, la medición de la respuesta y su análisis para obtener los dos parámetros mencionados. Un gran esfuerzo se dedica al análisis en tiempo real de las señales como un medio de reducir el riesgo de este tipo de ensayos. Existen numerosos métodos de Análisis Modal, pero pocos capaces de analizar las señales procedentes de los ensayos de flameo, debido a sus especiales características. Un método novedoso, basado en la Descomposición por Valores Singulares (SVD) y la factorización QR, ha sido desarrollado y aplicado al análisis de señales procedentes de vuelos de flameo del F-18. El método es capaz de identificar frecuencia y amortiguamiento de los modos críticos. El algoritmo se basa en la capacidad del SVD para el análisis, modelización y predicción de series de datos con características periódicas y en su capacidad de identificar el rango de una matriz, así como en la aptitud del QR para seleccionar la mejor base vectorial entre un conjunto de vectores para representar el campo vectorial que forman. El análisis de señales de flameo simuladas y reales demuestra, bajo ciertas condiciones, la efectividad, robustez, resistencia al ruido y capacidad de automatización del método propuesto. ABSTRACT Flutter involves the interaction between inertial, elastic and aerodynamic forces. It consists on an exchange of energy, identified by change in damping, between two or more structural modes, named critical modes, whose frequencies tend to get closer to each other (frequency coalescence). Flight flutter testing involves high risk because of the possibility of an abrupt lost in aeroelastic stability (hard flutter) that may lead to aircraft destruction. Moreover associated phenomena may happen during the flight as LCO (Limit Cycle Oscillation) and coupling with flight controls. Because of that, intensive analyses, including GVT (Ground Vibration Test), have to be performed before beginning the flights test and during them consistent procedures have to be followed. The test objective is to identify the stability border, maintaining the aircraft always inside the stable domain. To achieve that flutter speed prediction methods have to be used, the most employed being the “Flutter Margin”. In order to know how much aeroelastic stability remains and how far the aircraft is from the stability border (using the prediction methods), modal parameters, in particular frequency and damping are paramount. So flight test consists in exciting the structure at various flight conditions, measuring the response and identifying in real-time these two parameters. A great deal of effort is being devoted to real-time flight data analysis as an effective way to reduce the risk. Numerous Modal Analysis algorithms are available, but very few are suitable to analyze signals coming from flutter testing due to their special features. A new method, based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and QR factorization, has been developed and applied to the analysis of F-18 flutter flight-test data. The method is capable of identifying the frequency and damping of the critical aircraft modes. The algorithm relies on the capability of SVD for the analysis, modelling and prediction of data series with periodic features and also on its power to identify matrix rank as well as QR competence for selecting the best basis among a set of vectors in order to represent a given vector space of such a set. The analysis of simulated and real flutter flight test data demonstrates, under specific conditions, the effectiveness, robustness, noise-immunity and the capability for automation of the method proposed.

Desarrollo de metodologías para mejorar la estimación de los hidrogramas de diseño para el cálculo de los órganos de desagüe de las presas

En la presente Tesis se ha llevado a cabo el contraste y desarrollo de metodologías que permitan mejorar el cálculo de las avenidas de proyecto y extrema empleadas en el cálculo de la seguridad hidrológica de las presas. En primer lugar se ha abordado el tema del cálculo de las leyes de frecuencia de caudales máximos y su extrapolación a altos periodos de retorno. Esta cuestión es de gran relevancia, ya que la adopción de estándares de seguridad hidrológica para las presas cada vez más exigentes, implica la utilización de periodos de retorno de diseño muy elevados cuya estimación conlleva una gran incertidumbre. Es importante, en consecuencia incorporar al cálculo de los caudales de diseño todas la técnicas disponibles para reducir dicha incertidumbre. Asimismo, es importante hacer una buena selección del modelo estadístico (función de distribución y procedimiento de ajuste) de tal forma que se garantice tanto su capacidad para describir el comportamiento de la muestra, como para predecir de manera robusta los cuantiles de alto periodo de retorno. De esta forma, se han realizado estudios a escala nacional con el objetivo de determinar el esquema de regionalización que ofrece mejores resultados para las características hidrológicas de las cuencas españolas, respecto a los caudales máximos anuales, teniendo en cuenta el numero de datos disponibles. La metodología utilizada parte de la identificación de regiones homogéneas, cuyos límites se han determinado teniendo en cuenta las características fisiográficas y climáticas de las cuencas, y la variabilidad de sus estadísticos, comprobando posteriormente su homogeneidad. A continuación, se ha seleccionado el modelo estadístico de caudales máximos anuales con un mejor comportamiento en las distintas zonas de la España peninsular, tanto para describir los datos de la muestra como para extrapolar a los periodos de retorno más altos. El proceso de selección se ha basado, entre otras cosas, en la generación sintética de series de datos mediante simulaciones de Monte Carlo, y el análisis estadístico del conjunto de resultados obtenido a partir del ajuste de funciones de distribución a estas series bajo distintas hipótesis. Posteriormente, se ha abordado el tema de la relación caudal-volumen y la definición de los hidrogramas de diseño en base a la misma, cuestión que puede ser de gran importancia en el caso de presas con grandes volúmenes de embalse. Sin embargo, los procedimientos de cálculo hidrológico aplicados habitualmente no tienen en cuenta la dependencia estadística entre ambas variables. En esta Tesis se ha desarrollado un procedimiento para caracterizar dicha dependencia estadística de una manera sencilla y robusta, representando la función de distribución conjunta del caudal punta y el volumen en base a la función de distribución marginal del caudal punta y la función de distribución condicionada del volumen respecto al caudal. Esta última se determina mediante una función de distribución log-normal, aplicando un procedimiento de ajuste regional. Se propone su aplicación práctica a través de un procedimiento de cálculo probabilístico basado en la generación estocástica de un número elevado de hidrogramas. La aplicación a la seguridad hidrológica de las presas de este procedimiento requiere interpretar correctamente el concepto de periodo de retorno aplicado a variables hidrológicas bivariadas. Para ello, se realiza una propuesta de interpretación de dicho concepto. El periodo de retorno se entiende como el inverso de la probabilidad de superar un determinado nivel de embalse. Al relacionar este periodo de retorno con las variables hidrológicas, el hidrograma de diseño de la presa deja de ser un único hidrograma para convertirse en una familia de hidrogramas que generan un mismo nivel máximo en el embalse, representados mediante una curva en el plano caudal volumen. Esta familia de hidrogramas de diseño depende de la propia presa a diseñar, variando las curvas caudal-volumen en función, por ejemplo, del volumen de embalse o la longitud del aliviadero. El procedimiento propuesto se ilustra mediante su aplicación a dos casos de estudio. Finalmente, se ha abordado el tema del cálculo de las avenidas estacionales, cuestión fundamental a la hora de establecer la explotación de la presa, y que puede serlo también para estudiar la seguridad hidrológica de presas existentes. Sin embargo, el cálculo de estas avenidas es complejo y no está del todo claro hoy en día, y los procedimientos de cálculo habitualmente utilizados pueden presentar ciertos problemas. El cálculo en base al método estadístico de series parciales, o de máximos sobre un umbral, puede ser una alternativa válida que permite resolver esos problemas en aquellos casos en que la generación de las avenidas en las distintas estaciones se deba a un mismo tipo de evento. Se ha realizado un estudio con objeto de verificar si es adecuada en España la hipótesis de homogeneidad estadística de los datos de caudal de avenida correspondientes a distintas estaciones del año. Asimismo, se han analizado los periodos estacionales para los que es más apropiado realizar el estudio, cuestión de gran relevancia para garantizar que los resultados sean correctos, y se ha desarrollado un procedimiento sencillo para determinar el umbral de selección de los datos de tal manera que se garantice su independencia, una de las principales dificultades en la aplicación práctica de la técnica de las series parciales. Por otra parte, la aplicación practica de las leyes de frecuencia estacionales requiere interpretar correctamente el concepto de periodo de retorno para el caso estacional. Se propone un criterio para determinar los periodos de retorno estacionales de forma coherente con el periodo de retorno anual y con una distribución adecuada de la probabilidad entre las distintas estaciones. Por último, se expone un procedimiento para el cálculo de los caudales estacionales, ilustrándolo mediante su aplicación a un caso de estudio. The compare and develop of a methodology in order to improve the extreme flow estimation for dam hydrologic security has been developed. First, the work has been focused on the adjustment of maximum peak flows distribution functions from which to extrapolate values for high return periods. This has become a major issue as the adoption of stricter standards on dam hydrologic security involves estimation of high design return periods which entails great uncertainty. Accordingly, it is important to incorporate all available techniques for the estimation of design peak flows in order to reduce this uncertainty. Selection of the statistical model (distribution function and adjustment method) is also important since its ability to describe the sample and to make solid predictions for high return periods quantiles must be guaranteed. In order to provide practical application of previous methodologies, studies have been developed on a national scale with the aim of determining a regionalization scheme which features best results in terms of annual maximum peak flows for hydrologic characteristics of Spanish basins taking into account the length of available data. Applied methodology starts with the delimitation of regions taking into account basin’s physiographic and climatic characteristics and the variability of their statistical properties, and continues with their homogeneity testing. Then, a statistical model for maximum annual peak flows is selected with the best behaviour for the different regions in peninsular Spain in terms of describing sample data and making solid predictions for high return periods. This selection has been based, among others, on synthetic data series generation using Monte Carlo simulations and statistical analysis of results from distribution functions adjustment following different hypothesis. Secondly, the work has been focused on the analysis of the relationship between peak flow and volume and how to define design flood hydrographs based on this relationship which can be highly important for large volume reservoirs. However, commonly used hydrologic procedures do not take statistical dependence between these variables into account. A simple and sound method for statistical dependence characterization has been developed by the representation of a joint distribution function of maximum peak flow and volume which is based on marginal distribution function of peak flow and conditional distribution function of volume for a given peak flow. The last one is determined by a regional adjustment procedure of a log-normal distribution function. Practical application is proposed by a probabilistic estimation procedure based on stochastic generation of a large number of hydrographs. The use of this procedure for dam hydrologic security requires a proper interpretation of the return period concept applied to bivariate hydrologic data. A standard is proposed in which it is understood as the inverse of the probability of exceeding a determined reservoir level. When relating return period and hydrological variables the only design flood hydrograph changes into a family of hydrographs which generate the same maximum reservoir level and that are represented by a curve in the peak flow-volume two-dimensional space. This family of design flood hydrographs depends on the dam characteristics as for example reservoir volume or spillway length. Two study cases illustrate the application of the developed methodology. Finally, the work has been focused on the calculation of seasonal floods which are essential when determining the reservoir operation and which can be also fundamental in terms of analysing the hydrologic security of existing reservoirs. However, seasonal flood calculation is complex and nowadays it is not totally clear. Calculation procedures commonly used may present certain problems. Statistical partial duration series, or peaks over threshold method, can be an alternative approach for their calculation that allow to solve problems encountered when the same type of event is responsible of floods in different seasons. A study has been developed to verify the hypothesis of statistical homogeneity of peak flows for different seasons in Spain. Appropriate seasonal periods have been analyzed which is highly relevant to guarantee correct results. In addition, a simple procedure has been defined to determine data selection threshold on a way that ensures its independency which is one of the main difficulties in practical application of partial series. Moreover, practical application of seasonal frequency laws requires a correct interpretation of the concept of seasonal return period. A standard is proposed in order to determine seasonal return periods coherently with the annual return period and with an adequate seasonal probability distribution. Finally a methodology is proposed to calculate seasonal peak flows. A study case illustrates the application of the proposed methodology.

Análise da influência de variáveis meteorológicas e da hidrodinâmica sobre os padrões espaciais e temporais da qualidade da água e de florescimentos de cianobactérias e macrófitas em um reservatório urbano

Os reservatórios urbanos estão suscetíveis a uma variedade de interferências antropogênicas que acarretam grande variabilidade espacial e temporal. Contudo, possuem uma dinâmica própria na qual o hidroclima e micro e macro-eventos meteorológicos atuam sobre os processos físicos, químicos e biológicos resultando em respostas particulares de cada corpo de água. No presente estudo a existência de padrões espaciais e temporais na formação de florescimentos de algas, cianobactérias e macrófitas no reservatório Guarapiranga, São Paulo, SP, foi avaliada por meio de experimento de curta escala de tempo durante o evento da entrada de uma frente fria. Foram amostrados 64 pontos em todo o reservatório, e o estudo intensivo de florescimento algal e de cianobactérias em dois ciclos nictemerais, em um ponto selecionado no reservatório. Um modelo tridimensional de hidrodinâmica foi aplicado ao estudo compartimentalizado dos tempos de residência e imagens de satélite foram analisadas para determinação de padrões temporais e espaciais durante períodos de tempo mais amplos. Os resultados revelaram que os períodos mais favoráveis ao surgimento de florescimentos de cianobactérias são geralmente os meses mais quentes, de dezembro e janeiro, ou aqueles em que ocorrem estratificações mais fortes como no fim do inverno, em julho, e após as primeiras chuvas nos meses de setembro e outubro. Existem padrões espaciais recorrentes na formação dos florescimentos, controlados em grande parte pela ação do vento, que no reservatório Guarapiranga é predominantemente nas direções leste e sudeste empurrando os florescimentos na direção da foz dos tributários Embu Mirim e Embu Guaçu e ocasionalmente na direção da foz do rio Parelheiros. As simulações hidrodinâmicas evidenciam as forçantes que determinam os padrões observados e reforçam a importância de se discretizarem os tempos de residência de diferentes compartimentos do reservatório. As séries temporais amplas permitiram a determinação da qualidade da água em cada região e fornecem subsídios para o futuro manejo do reservatório. Como esse comportamento não se restringe ao reservatório Guarapiranga, o tipo de modelagem aqui utilizada pode ser útil para obter informações importantes no processo de planejamento e seleção de medidas para o gerenciamento de reservatórios urbanos tropicais polimíticos, em geral.

Conocimientos científicos importantes para la conservación y gestión de las tres especies de liebre de la Península Ibérica: deficiencias y retos para el futuro

Los principales avances en el conocimiento de las tres especies de liebre presentes en la Península Ibérica (dos de ellas endémicas) tuvieron lugar a finales del siglo XX con la realización de estudios sobre genética, morfología y ecología descriptiva. Durante los años 90 y 2000, se ha profundizado fundamentalmente en aspectos genéticos y evolutivos, en la definición de factores ambientales determinantes de su distribución, en el estado sanitario y en el comportamiento espacial. En lo que respecta a los estudios sobre dinámica poblacional, se dispone únicamente de trabajos locales con metodologías diversas y series de datos generalmente cortas, lo que impide realizar una interpretación conjunta y sólida de los datos. Esta falta de información conlleva que las bases técnicas para determinar un adecuado aprovechamiento cinegético sean en la mayoría de los casos insuficientes. Además, las tres especies se encuentran fuertemente ligadas al medio agrícola y ganadero, por lo que determinar los factores relativos al manejo de estos medios que afectan a las liebres resulta esencial, especialmente debido al declive general de la mayor parte de las especies silvestres ligadas a estos espacios. ¿Será el sector científico-técnico capaz de avanzar en el conocimiento de la dinámica poblacional y el efecto del manejo agroganadero para una mejor gestión de las liebres ibéricas?

Mapping Binary Liquid-Vapor or Liquid-Liquid-Vapor Equilibria Regions, including the Different Azeotropic Behaviours, as a Function of the NRTL Binary Parameters

13th Mediterranean Congress of Chemical Engineering (Sociedad Española de Química Industrial e Ingeniería Química, Fira Barcelona, Expoquimia), Barcelona, September 30-October 3, 2014

Aspects of teacher supply and demand in public school districts and private schools, 1987-88 /

"Data series: DR-SAS-87/88.

College-level remedial education in the fall of 1989 /

455-G-9

The problem of cooperative medicine,

"Prepared with the assistance of the Federal works agency, Work projects administration, Official project no. 65-1-97-21 ("Bibliographies and indices of special subjects," sub-phase "Literary development of cooperative principles and data")"

Civilian labor force estimates for Maine and its substate areas.

"A statistical data series developed by the Labor Market Evaluation and Planning Section."

Maine civilian labor force estimates.

"A statistical data series publication of the Economic and Demographic Research Group."

High school and beyond : a descriptive summary of 1980 high school seniors, six years later /

"Data series: HSB-80/86-2.0, HSB-80/86-2.1."

Was an increase in cocaine use among injecting drug users in New South Wales, Australia, accompanied by an increase in violent crime?

Background: A sharp reduction in heroin supply in Australia in 2001 was followed by a large but transient increase in cocaine use among injecting drug users (IDU) in Sydney. This paper assesses whether the increase in cocaine use among IDU was accompanied by increased rates of violent crime as occurred in the United States in the 1980s. Specifically, the paper aims to examine the impact of increased cocaine use among Sydney IDU upon police incidents of robbery with a weapon, assault and homicide. Methods: Data on cocaine use among IDU was obtained from the Illicit Drug Reporting System (IDRS). Monthly NSW Police incident data on arrests for cocaine possession/ use, robbery offences, homicides, and assaults, were obtained from the Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. Time series analysis was conducted on the police data series where possible. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with representatives from law enforcement and health agencies about the impacts of cocaine use on crime and policing. Results: There was a significant increase in cocaine use and cocaine possession offences in the months immediately following the reduction in heroin supply. There was also a significant increase in incidents of robbery where weapons were involved. There were no increases in offences involving firearms, homicides or reported assaults. Conclusion: The increased use of cocaine among injecting drug users following the heroin shortage led to increases in violent crime. Other States and territories that also experienced a heroin shortage but did not show any increases in cocaine use did not report any increase in violent crimes. The violent crimes committed did not involve guns, most likely because of its stringent gun laws, in contrast to the experience of American cities that have experienced high rates of cocaine use and violent crime.

UK social housing and housing market in England:a statistical review and trends

Around 80% of the 63 million people in the UK live in urban areas where demand for affordable housing is highest. Supply of new dwellings is a long way short of demand and with an average annual replacement rate of 0.5% more than 80% of the existing residential housing stock will still be in use by 2050. A high proportion of owner-occupiers, a weak private rental sector and lack of sustainable financing models render England’s housing market one of the least responsive in the developed world. As an exploratory research the purpose of this paper is to examine the provision of social housing in the United Kingdom with a particular focus on England, and to set out implications for housing associations delivering sustainable community development. The paper is based on an analysis of historical data series (Census data), current macro-economic data and population projections to 2033. The paper identifies a chronic undersupply of affordable housing in England which is likely to be exacerbated by demographic development, changes in household composition and reduced availability of finance to develop new homes. Based on the housing market trends analysed in this paper opportunities are identified for policy makers to remove barriers to the delivery of new affordable homes and for social housing providers to evolve their business models by taking a wider role in sustainable community development.

Seasonal dynamic pattern analysis in service of climate change research. A methodical case-study - monitoring and simulation based on an aquatic insect community

Our aim was to approach an important and well-investigable phenomenon – connected to a relatively simple but real field situation – in such a way, that the results of field observations could be directly comparable with the predictions of a simulation model-system which uses a simple mathematical apparatus and to simultaneously gain such a hypothesis-system, which creates the theoretical opportunity for a later experimental series of studies. As a phenomenon of the study, we chose the seasonal coenological changes of aquatic and semiaquatic Heteroptera community. Based on the observed data, we developed such an ecological model-system, which is suitable for generating realistic patterns highly resembling to the observed temporal patterns, and by the help of which predictions can be given to alternative situations of climatic circumstances not experienced before (e.g. climate changes), and furthermore; which can simulate experimental circumstances. The stable coenological state-plane, which was constructed based on the principle of indirect ordination is suitable for unified handling of data series of monitoring and simulation, and also fits for their comparison. On the state-plane, such deviations of empirical and model-generated data can be observed and analysed, which could otherwise remain hidden.

Evaluation of climate change scenarios based on aquatic food web modelling

In the years 2004 and 2005 we collected samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton and macroinvertebrates in an artificial small pond in Budapest. We set up a simulation model predicting the abundance of the cyclopoids, Eudiaptomus zachariasi and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature as it affects the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature, but the abundance of the three mentioned groups. This discrete-deterministic model could generate similar patterns like the observed one and testing it on historical data was successful. However, because the model was overpredicting the abundances of Ischnura pumilio and Cyclopoida at the end of the year, these results were not considered. Running the model with the data series of climate change scenarios, we had an opportunity to predict the individual numbers for the period around 2050. If the model is run with the data series of the two scenarios UKHI and UKLO, which predict drastic global warming, then we can observe a decrease in abundance and shift in the date of the maximum abundance occurring (excluding Ischnura pumilio, where the maximum abundance increases and it occurs later), whereas under unchanged climatic conditions (BASE scenario) the change in abundance is negligible. According to the scenarios GFDL 2535, GFDL 5564 and UKTR, a transition could be noticed.