Modeling Englacial Radar Attenuation at Siple Dome, West Antarctica, Using Ice Chemistry and Temperature Data

The radar reflectivity of an ice-sheet bed is a primary measurement for discriminating between thawed and frozen beds. Uncertainty in englacial radar attenuation and its spatial variation introduces corresponding uncertainty in estimates of basal reflectivity. Radar attenuation is proportional to ice conductivity, which depends on the concentrations of acid and sea-salt chloride and the temperature of the ice. We synthesize published conductivity measurements to specify an ice-conductivity model and find that some of the dielectric properties of ice at radar frequencies are not yet well constrained. Using depth profiles of ice-core chemistry and borehole temperature and an average of the experimental values for the dielectric properties, we calculate an attenuation rate profile for Siple Dome, West Antarctica. The depth-averaged modeled attenuation rate at Siple Dome (20.0 +/- 5.7 dB km(-1)) is somewhat lower than the value derived from radar profiles (25.3 +/- 1.1 dB km(-1)). Pending more experimental data on the dielectric properties of ice, we can match the modeled and radar-derived attenuation rates by an adjustment to the value for the pure ice conductivity that is within the range of reported values. Alternatively, using the pure ice dielectric properties derived from the most extensive single data set, the modeled depth-averaged attenuation rate is 24.0 +/- 2.2 dB km(-1). This work shows how to calculate englacial radar attenuation using ice chemistry and temperature data and establishes a basis for mapping spatial variations in radar attenuation across an ice sheet.

A fixed-links modeling approach to assess individual differences in the attentional blink: Analysis of behavioral and psychophysiological data

The attentional blink (AB) is a fundamental limitation of the ability to select relevant information from irrelevant information. It can be observed with the detection rate in an AB task as well as with the corresponding P300 amplitude of the event-related potential. In previous research, however, correlations between these two levels of observation were weak and rather inconsistent. A possible explanation of this finding might be that multiple processes underlie the AB and, thus, obscure a possible relationship between AB-related detection rate and the corresponding P300 amplitude. The present study investigated this assumption by applying a fixed-links modeling approach to represent behavioral individual differences in the AB as a latent variable. Concurrently, this approach enabled us to control for additional sources of variance in AB performance by deriving two additional latent variables. The correlation between the latent variable reflecting behavioral individual differences in AB magnitude and a corresponding latent variable derived from the P300 amplitude was high (r=.70). Furthermore, this correlation was considerably stronger than the correlations of other behavioral measures of the AB magnitude with their psychophysiological counterparts (all rs<.40). Our findings clearly indicate that the systematic disentangling of various sources of variance by utilizing the fixed-links modeling approach is a promising tool to investigate behavioral individual differences in the AB and possible psychophysiological correlates of these individual differences.

A LAPLACE TRANSFORM PAIR MODEL TO DETERMINE BREMSSTRAHLUNG SPECTRA FROM ATTENUATION DATA (RADIATION, X-RAY, SPECTRAL MODELING)

Every x-ray attenuation curve inherently contains all the information necessary to extract the complete energy spectrum of a beam. To date, attempts to obtain accurate spectral information from attenuation data have been inadequate.^ This investigation presents a mathematical pair model, grounded in physical reality by the Laplace Transformation, to describe the attenuation of a photon beam and the corresponding bremsstrahlung spectral distribution. In addition the Laplace model has been mathematically extended to include characteristic radiation in a physically meaningful way. A method to determine the fraction of characteristic radiation in any diagnostic x-ray beam was introduced for use with the extended model.^ This work has examined the reconstructive capability of the Laplace pair model for a photon beam range of from 50 kVp to 25 MV, using both theoretical and experimental methods.^ In the diagnostic region, excellent agreement between a wide variety of experimental spectra and those reconstructed with the Laplace model was obtained when the atomic composition of the attenuators was accurately known. The model successfully reproduced a 2 MV spectrum but demonstrated difficulty in accurately reconstructing orthovoltage and 6 MV spectra. The 25 MV spectrum was successfully reconstructed although poor agreement with the spectrum obtained by Levy was found.^ The analysis of errors, performed with diagnostic energy data, demonstrated the relative insensitivity of the model to typical experimental errors and confirmed that the model can be successfully used to theoretically derive accurate spectral information from experimental attenuation data. ^

Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^

Integrating sequence information in microarray data analysis by free energy modeling

Microarray technology is a high-throughput method for genotyping and gene expression profiling. Limited sensitivity and specificity are one of the essential problems for this technology. Most of existing methods of microarray data analysis have an apparent limitation for they merely deal with the numerical part of microarray data and have made little use of gene sequence information. Because it's the gene sequences that precisely define the physical objects being measured by a microarray, it is natural to make the gene sequences an essential part of the data analysis. This dissertation focused on the development of free energy models to integrate sequence information in microarray data analysis. The models were used to characterize the mechanism of hybridization on microarrays and enhance sensitivity and specificity of microarray measurements. ^ Cross-hybridization is a major obstacle factor for the sensitivity and specificity of microarray measurements. In this dissertation, we evaluated the scope of cross-hybridization problem on short-oligo microarrays. The results showed that cross hybridization on arrays is mostly caused by oligo fragments with a run of 10 to 16 nucleotides complementary to the probes. Furthermore, a free-energy based model was proposed to quantify the amount of cross-hybridization signal on each probe. This model treats cross-hybridization as an integral effect of the interactions between a probe and various off-target oligo fragments. Using public spike-in datasets, the model showed high accuracy in predicting the cross-hybridization signals on those probes whose intended targets are absent in the sample. ^ Several prospective models were proposed to improve Positional Dependent Nearest-Neighbor (PDNN) model for better quantification of gene expression and cross-hybridization. ^ The problem addressed in this dissertation is fundamental to the microarray technology. We expect that this study will help us to understand the detailed mechanism that determines sensitivity and specificity on the microarrays. Consequently, this research will have a wide impact on how microarrays are designed and how the data are interpreted. ^

Mixture modeling for joint analysis of survival, discrete, and continuous data

Mixture modeling is commonly used to model categorical latent variables that represent subpopulations in which population membership is unknown but can be inferred from the data. In relatively recent years, the potential of finite mixture models has been applied in time-to-event data. However, the commonly used survival mixture model assumes that the effects of the covariates involved in failure times differ across latent classes, but the covariate distribution is homogeneous. The aim of this dissertation is to develop a method to examine time-to-event data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity under a framework of mixture modeling. A joint model is developed to incorporate the latent survival trajectory along with the observed information for the joint analysis of a time-to-event variable, its discrete and continuous covariates, and a latent class variable. It is assumed that the effects of covariates on survival times and the distribution of covariates vary across different latent classes. The unobservable survival trajectories are identified through estimating the probability that a subject belongs to a particular class based on observed information. We applied this method to a Hodgkin lymphoma study with long-term follow-up and observed four distinct latent classes in terms of long-term survival and distributions of prognostic factors. Our results from simulation studies and from the Hodgkin lymphoma study demonstrated the superiority of our joint model compared with the conventional survival model. This flexible inference method provides more accurate estimation and accommodates unobservable heterogeneity among individuals while taking involved interactions between covariates into consideration.^

Population genetic and dispersal modeling data for Bathymodiolus mussels from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

The zip folder comprises a text file and a gzipped tar archive. 1) The text file contains individual genotype data for 90 SNPs, 9 microsatellites and the mitochondrial ND4 gene that were determined in deep-sea hydrothermal vent mussels from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (genus Bathymodiolus). Mussel specimens are grouped according to the population (pop)/location from which they have been sampled (first column). The remaining columns contain the respective allele/haplotype codes for the different genetic loci (names in the header line). The data file is in CONVERT format and can be directly transformed into different input files for population genetic statistics. 2) The tar archive contains NetCDF files with larval dispersal probabilities for simulated annual larval releases between 1998 and 2007. For each simulated vent location (Menez Gwen, Lucky Strike, Rainbow, Vent 1-10) two NetCDF files are given, one for an assumed pelagic larval duration of 1 year and the other one for an assumed pelagic larval duration of 6 months (6m).

Environmental variables modeling based on remote sensing data using time series analysis: forestry and agricultural applications

En la actualidad, el seguimiento de la dinámica de los procesos medio ambientales está considerado como un punto de gran interés en el campo medioambiental. La cobertura espacio temporal de los datos de teledetección proporciona información continua con una alta frecuencia temporal, permitiendo el análisis de la evolución de los ecosistemas desde diferentes escalas espacio-temporales. Aunque el valor de la teledetección ha sido ampliamente probado, en la actualidad solo existe un número reducido de metodologías que permiten su análisis de una forma cuantitativa. En la presente tesis se propone un esquema de trabajo para explotar las series temporales de datos de teledetección, basado en la combinación del análisis estadístico de series de tiempo y la fenometría. El objetivo principal es demostrar el uso de las series temporales de datos de teledetección para analizar la dinámica de variables medio ambientales de una forma cuantitativa. Los objetivos específicos son: (1) evaluar dichas variables medio ambientales y (2) desarrollar modelos empíricos para predecir su comportamiento futuro. Estos objetivos se materializan en cuatro aplicaciones cuyos objetivos específicos son: (1) evaluar y cartografiar estados fenológicos del cultivo del algodón mediante análisis espectral y fenometría, (2) evaluar y modelizar la estacionalidad de incendios forestales en dos regiones bioclimáticas mediante modelos dinámicos, (3) predecir el riesgo de incendios forestales a nivel pixel utilizando modelos dinámicos y (4) evaluar el funcionamiento de la vegetación en base a la autocorrelación temporal y la fenometría. Los resultados de esta tesis muestran la utilidad del ajuste de funciones para modelizar los índices espectrales AS1 y AS2. Los parámetros fenológicos derivados del ajuste de funciones permiten la identificación de distintos estados fenológicos del cultivo del algodón. El análisis espectral ha demostrado, de una forma cuantitativa, la presencia de un ciclo en el índice AS2 y de dos ciclos en el AS1 así como el comportamiento unimodal y bimodal de la estacionalidad de incendios en las regiones mediterránea y templada respectivamente. Modelos autorregresivos han sido utilizados para caracterizar la dinámica de la estacionalidad de incendios y para predecir de una forma muy precisa el riesgo de incendios forestales a nivel pixel. Ha sido demostrada la utilidad de la autocorrelación temporal para definir y caracterizar el funcionamiento de la vegetación a nivel pixel. Finalmente el concepto “Optical Functional Type” ha sido definido, donde se propone que los pixeles deberían ser considerados como unidades temporales y analizados en función de su dinámica temporal. ix SUMMARY A good understanding of land surface processes is considered as a key subject in environmental sciences. The spatial-temporal coverage of remote sensing data provides continuous observations with a high temporal frequency allowing the assessment of ecosystem evolution at different temporal and spatial scales. Although the value of remote sensing time series has been firmly proved, only few time series methods have been developed for analyzing this data in a quantitative and continuous manner. In the present dissertation a working framework to exploit Remote Sensing time series is proposed based on the combination of Time Series Analysis and phenometric approach. The main goal is to demonstrate the use of remote sensing time series to analyze quantitatively environmental variable dynamics. The specific objectives are (1) to assess environmental variables based on remote sensing time series and (2) to develop empirical models to forecast environmental variables. These objectives have been achieved in four applications which specific objectives are (1) assessing and mapping cotton crop phenological stages using spectral and phenometric analyses, (2) assessing and modeling fire seasonality in two different ecoregions by dynamic models, (3) forecasting forest fire risk on a pixel basis by dynamic models, and (4) assessing vegetation functioning based on temporal autocorrelation and phenometric analysis. The results of this dissertation show the usefulness of function fitting procedures to model AS1 and AS2. Phenometrics derived from function fitting procedure makes it possible to identify cotton crop phenological stages. Spectral analysis has demonstrated quantitatively the presence of one cycle in AS2 and two in AS1 and the unimodal and bimodal behaviour of fire seasonality in the Mediterranean and temperate ecoregions respectively. Autoregressive models has been used to characterize the dynamics of fire seasonality in two ecoregions and to forecasts accurately fire risk on a pixel basis. The usefulness of temporal autocorrelation to define and characterized land surface functioning has been demonstrated. And finally the “Optical Functional Types” concept has been proposed, in this approach pixels could be as temporal unities based on its temporal dynamics or functioning.

Data Processing Modeling in Decision Support Systems.

Due to the advancement of both, information technology in general, and databases in particular; data storage devices are becoming cheaper and data processing speed is increasing. As result of this, organizations tend to store large volumes of data holding great potential information. Decision Support Systems, DSS try to use the stored data to obtain valuable information for organizations. In this paper, we use both data models and use cases to represent the functionality of data processing in DSS following Software Engineering processes. We propose a methodology to develop DSS in the Analysis phase, respective of data processing modeling. We have used, as a starting point, a data model adapted to the semantics involved in multidimensional databases or data warehouses, DW. Also, we have taken an algorithm that provides us with all the possible ways to automatically cross check multidimensional model data. Using the aforementioned, we propose diagrams and descriptions of use cases, which can be considered as patterns representing the DSS functionality, in regard to DW data processing, DW on which DSS are based. We highlight the reusability and automation benefits that this can be achieved, and we think this study can serve as a guide in the development of DSS.

Singular value decomposition for genome-wide expression data processing and modeling

We describe the use of singular value decomposition in transforming genome-wide expression data from genes × arrays space to reduced diagonalized “eigengenes” × “eigenarrays” space, where the eigengenes (or eigenarrays) are unique orthonormal superpositions of the genes (or arrays). Normalizing the data by filtering out the eigengenes (and eigenarrays) that are inferred to represent noise or experimental artifacts enables meaningful comparison of the expression of different genes across different arrays in different experiments. Sorting the data according to the eigengenes and eigenarrays gives a global picture of the dynamics of gene expression, in which individual genes and arrays appear to be classified into groups of similar regulation and function, or similar cellular state and biological phenotype, respectively. After normalization and sorting, the significant eigengenes and eigenarrays can be associated with observed genome-wide effects of regulators, or with measured samples, in which these regulators are overactive or underactive, respectively.

Dynamic regulation of the tryptophan operon: A modeling study and comparison with experimental data

A mathematical model for regulation of the tryptophan operon is presented. This model takes into account repression, feedback enzyme inhibition, and transcriptional attenuation. Special attention is given to model parameter estimation based on experimental data. The model's system of delay differential equations is numerically solved, and the results are compared with experimental data on the temporal evolution of enzyme activity in cultures of Escherichia coli after a nutritional shift (minimal + tryptophan medium to minimal medium). Good agreement is obtained between the numeric simulations and the experimental results for wild-type E. coli, as well as for two different mutant strains.

Dynamic modeling of gene expression data

We describe the time evolution of gene expression levels by using a time translational matrix to predict future expression levels of genes based on their expression levels at some initial time. We deduce the time translational matrix for previously published DNA microarray gene expression data sets by modeling them within a linear framework by using the characteristic modes obtained by singular value decomposition. The resulting time translation matrix provides a measure of the relationships among the modes and governs their time evolution. We show that a truncated matrix linking just a few modes is a good approximation of the full time translation matrix. This finding suggests that the number of essential connections among the genes is small.

Statistical modeling of large microarray data sets to identify stimulus-response profiles

A statistical modeling approach is proposed for use in searching large microarray data sets for genes that have a transcriptional response to a stimulus. The approach is unrestricted with respect to the timing, magnitude or duration of the response, or the overall abundance of the transcript. The statistical model makes an accommodation for systematic heterogeneity in expression levels. Corresponding data analyses provide gene-specific information, and the approach provides a means for evaluating the statistical significance of such information. To illustrate this strategy we have derived a model to depict the profile expected for a periodically transcribed gene and used it to look for budding yeast transcripts that adhere to this profile. Using objective criteria, this method identifies 81% of the known periodic transcripts and 1,088 genes, which show significant periodicity in at least one of the three data sets analyzed. However, only one-quarter of these genes show significant oscillations in at least two data sets and can be classified as periodic with high confidence. The method provides estimates of the mean activation and deactivation times, induced and basal expression levels, and statistical measures of the precision of these estimates for each periodic transcript.

Blood flow and oxygen delivery to human brain during functional activity: Theoretical modeling and experimental data

Coupling of cerebral blood flow (CBF) and cerebral metabolic rate for oxygen (CMRO2) in physiologically activated brain states remains the subject of debates. Recently it was suggested that CBF is tightly coupled to oxidative metabolism in a nonlinear fashion. As part of this hypothesis, mathematical models of oxygen delivery to the brain have been described in which disproportionately large increases in CBF are necessary to sustain even small increases in CMRO2 during activation. We have explored the coupling of CBF and oxygen delivery by using two complementary methods. First, a more complex mathematical model was tested that differs from those recently described in that no assumptions were made regarding tissue oxygen level. Second, [15O] water CBF positron emission tomography (PET) studies in nine healthy subjects were conducted during states of visual activation and hypoxia to examine the relationship of CBF and oxygen delivery. In contrast to previous reports, our model showed adequate tissue levels of oxygen could be maintained without the need for increased CBF or oxygen delivery. Similarly, the PET studies demonstrated that the regional increase in CBF during visual activation was not affected by hypoxia. These findings strongly indicate that the increase in CBF associated with physiological activation is regulated by factors other than local requirements in oxygen.

Finite element modeling of motor vehicles. Protocol for developing INGRID data input desks for DYNA3D computer code. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Safety and Traffic Operations Research Development, McLean, Va.