Towards dynamics in flood risk assessment

As a consequence of flood impacts, communities inhabiting mountain areas are increasingly affected by considerable damage to infrastructure and property. The design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation is crucial for a sustainable development in mountain areas. The assessment of the dynamic evolution of flood risk is the pillar of any subsequent planning process that is targeted at a reduction of the expected adverse consequences of the hazard impact. Given these premises, firstly, a comprehensive method to derive flood hazard process scenarios for well-defined areas at risk is presented. Secondly, conceptualisations of a static and dynamic flood risk assessment are provided. These are based on formal schemes to compute the risk mitigation performance of devised mitigation strategies within the framework of economic cost-benefit analysis. In this context, techniques suitable to quantify the expected losses induced by the identified flood impacts are provided.

Hip damage occurs at the zone of femoroacetabular impingement

Although current concepts of anterior femoroacetabular impingement predict damage in the labrum and the cartilage, the actual joint damage has not been verified by computer simulation. We retrospectively compared the intraoperative locations of labral and cartilage damage of 40 hips during surgical dislocation for cam or pincer type femoroacetabular impingement (Group I) with the locations of femoroacetabular impingement in 15 additional hips using computer simulation (Group II). We found no difference between the mean locations of the chondrolabral damage of Group I and the computed impingement zone of Group II. The standard deviation was larger for measures of articular damage from Group I in comparison to the computed values of Group II. The most severe hip damage occurred at the zone of highest probability of femoroacetabular impact, typically in the anterosuperior quadrant of the acetabulum for both cam and pincer type femoroacetabular impingements. However, the extent of joint damage along the acetabular rim was larger intraoperatively than that observed on the images of the 3-D joint simulations. We concluded femoroacetabular impingement mechanism contributes to early osteoarthritis including labral lesions. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II, diagnostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Development of a physically-based method for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions and flood quantile estimation in ungauged basins via the index flood method

Regional flood frequency techniques are commonly used to estimate flood quantiles when flood data is unavailable or the record length at an individual gauging station is insufficient for reliable analyses. These methods compensate for limited or unavailable data by pooling data from nearby gauged sites. This requires the delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions in which the flood regime is sufficiently similar to allow the spatial transfer of information. It is generally accepted that hydrologic similarity results from similar physiographic characteristics, and thus these characteristics can be used to delineate regions and classify ungauged sites. However, as currently practiced, the delineation is highly subjective and dependent on the similarity measures and classification techniques employed. A standardized procedure for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions is presented herein. Key aspects are a new statistical metric to identify physically discordant sites, and the identification of an appropriate set of physically based measures of extreme hydrological similarity. A combination of multivariate statistical techniques applied to multiple flood statistics and basin characteristics for gauging stations in the Southeastern U.S. revealed that basin slope, elevation, and soil drainage largely determine the extreme hydrological behavior of a watershed. Use of these characteristics as similarity measures in the standardized approach for region delineation yields regions which are more homogeneous and more efficient for quantile estimation at ungauged sites than those delineated using alternative physically-based procedures typically employed in practice. The proposed methods and key physical characteristics are also shown to be efficient for region delineation and quantile development in alternative areas composed of watersheds with statistically different physical composition. In addition, the use of aggregated values of key watershed characteristics was found to be sufficient for the regionalization of flood data; the added time and computational effort required to derive spatially distributed watershed variables does not increase the accuracy of quantile estimators for ungauged sites. This dissertation also presents a methodology by which flood quantile estimates in Haiti can be derived using relationships developed for data rich regions of the U.S. As currently practiced, regional flood frequency techniques can only be applied within the predefined area used for model development. However, results presented herein demonstrate that the regional flood distribution can successfully be extrapolated to areas of similar physical composition located beyond the extent of that used for model development provided differences in precipitation are accounted for and the site in question can be appropriately classified within a delineated region.

Integration of computational models and experimental characterization to study internal frost damage in cementitious materials

The objective of this doctoral research is to investigate the internal frost damage due to crystallization pore pressure in porous cement-based materials by developing computational and experimental characterization tools. As an essential component of the U.S. infrastructure system, the durability of concrete has significant impact on maintenance costs. In cold climates, freeze-thaw damage is a major issue affecting the durability of concrete. The deleterious effects of the freeze-thaw cycle depend on the microscale characteristics of concrete such as the pore sizes and the pore distribution, as well as the environmental conditions. Recent theories attribute internal frost damage of concrete is caused by crystallization pore pressure in the cold environment. The pore structures have significant impact on freeze-thaw durability of cement/concrete samples. The scanning electron microscope (SEM) and transmission X-ray microscopy (TXM) techniques were applied to characterize freeze-thaw damage within pore structure. In the microscale pore system, the crystallization pressures at sub-cooling temperatures were calculated using interface energy balance with thermodynamic analysis. The multi-phase Extended Finite Element Modeling (XFEM) and bilinear Cohesive Zone Modeling (CZM) were developed to simulate the internal frost damage of heterogeneous cement-based material samples. The fracture simulation with these two techniques were validated by comparing the predicted fracture behavior with the captured damage from compact tension (CT) and single-edge notched beam (SEB) bending tests. The study applied the developed computational tools to simulate the internal frost damage caused by ice crystallization with the two dimensional (2-D) SEM and three dimensional (3-D) reconstructed SEM and TXM digital samples. The pore pressure calculated from thermodynamic analysis was input for model simulation. The 2-D and 3-D bilinear CZM predicted the crack initiation and propagation within cement paste microstructure. The favorably predicted crack paths in concrete/cement samples indicate the developed bilinear CZM techniques have the ability to capture crack nucleation and propagation in cement-based material samples with multiphase and associated interface. By comparing the computational prediction with the actual damaged samples, it also indicates that the ice crystallization pressure is the main mechanism for the internal frost damage in cementitious materials.

Floods of the Upper Danube River and Its Tributaries and Their Impact on Urban Economies (c. 1350–1600): The Examples of the Towns of Krems/Stein and Wels (Austria)

This paper examines the impact of disastrous and ‘ordinary’ floods on human societies in what is now Austria. The focus is on urban areas and their neighbourhoods. Examining institutional sources such as accounts of the bridge masters, charters, statutes and official petitions, it can be shown that city communities were well acquainted with this permanent risk: in fact, an office was established for the restoration of bridges and the maintenance of water defences and large depots for timber and water pipes ensured that the reconstruction of bridges and the system of water supply could start immediately after the floods had subsided. Carpenters and similar groups gained 10 to 20 per cent of their income from the repair of bridges and other flood damage. The construction of houses in endangered zones was adapted in order to survive the worst case experiences. Thus, we may describe those communities living along the central European rivers as ‘cultures of flood management’. This special knowledge vanished, however, from the mid-nineteenth century onwards, when river regulations gave the people a false feeling of security.

Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management

The main goals of this study were to identifythe alpine torrent catchments that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to the delimited hazard zones were studied. The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments, where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection structures in future will become more important in risk management activities.

Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered – more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed – allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the outlet of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last 3 days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The fact that floods are not significantly more frequent nor more intense after wet PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Pre-Alpine, Alpine and South Alpine Swiss catchments. Our study poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. The results suggest that the consideration of a 3–4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

Modification of aviary design reduces incidence of falls, collisions and keel bone damage in laying hens

Non-cage housing systems for laying hens such as aviaries provide greater freedom to perform species-specific behavior and thus are thought to improve welfare of the birds; however, aviaries are associated with a high prevalence of keel bone damage (fractures and deviations), which is a major welfare problem in commercial laying hens. Potential causes of keel bone damage are falls and collisions with internal housing structures that occur as birds move between tiers or perches in the aviary. The aim of this study was to investigate the scope for reducing keel bone damage by reducing falls and collisions through modifications of aviary design. Birds were kept in 20 pens in a laying hen house (225 hens per pen) that were assigned to four different treatments (n = 5 pens per treatment group) including (1) control pens and pens modified by the addition of (2) perches, (3) platforms and (4) ramps. Video recordings at 19, 22, 29, 36 and 43 weeks of age were used to analyze controlled movements and falls (including details on occurrence of collision, cause of fall, height of fall and behavior after fall) during the transitional dusk and subsequent dark phase. Palpation assessments (focusing on fractures and deviations) using 20 focal hens per pen were conducted at 18, 20, 23, 30, 37, 44, 52 and 60 weeks of age. In comparison to the control group, we found 44% more controlled movements in the ramp (P = 0.003) and 47% more controlled movements in the platform treatments (P = 0.014) as well as 45% fewer falls (P = 0.006) and 59% fewer collisions (P < 0.001) in the ramp treatment. There were no significant differences between the control and perch treatments. Also, at 60 weeks of age, 23% fewer fractured keel bones were found in the ramp compared with the control treatment (P = 0.0053). After slaughter at 66 weeks of age, no difference in keel bone damage was found between treatment groups and the prevalence of fractures increased to an average of 86%. As a potential mechanism to explain the differences in locomotion, we suggest that ramps facilitated movement in the vertical plane by providing a continuous path between the tiers and thus supported more natural behavior (i.e. walking and running) of the birds. As a consequence of reducing events that potentially damage keel bones, the installation of ramps may have reduced the prevalence of keel fractures for a major portion of the flock cycle. We conclude that aviary design and installation of specific internal housing structures (i.e. ramps and platforms) have considerable potential to reduce keel bone damage of laying hens in aviary systems.

Health impacts of extreme weather: Flood fatalities in Texas

Floods are the leading cause of fatalities related to natural disasters in Texas. Texas leads the nation in flash flood fatalities. From 1959 through 2009 there were three times more fatalities in Texas (840) than the following state Pennsylvania (265). Texas also leads the nation in flood-related injuries (7753). Flood fatalities in Texas represent a serious public health problem. This study addresses several objectives of Healthy People 2010 including reducing deaths from motor vehicle accidents (Objective 15-15), reducing nonfatal motor vehicle injuries (Objective 15-17), and reducing drownings (Objective 15-29). The study examined flood fatalities that occurred in Texas between 1959 and 2008. Flood fatality statistics were extracted from three sources: flood fatality databases from the National Climatic Data Center, the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States, and the Texas Department of State Health Services. The data collected for flood fatalities include the date, time, gender, age, location, and type of flood. Inconsistencies among the three databases were identified and discussed. Analysis reveals that most fatalities result from driving into flood water (77%). Spatial analysis indicates that more fatalities occurred in counties containing major urban centers – some of the Flash Flood Alley counties (Bexar, Dallas, Travis, and Tarrant), Harris County (Houston), and Val Verde County (Del Rio). An intervention strategy targeting the behavior of driving into flood water is proposed. The intervention is based on the Health Belief model. The main recommendation of the study is that flood fatalities in Texas can be reduced through a combination of improved hydrometeorological forecasting, educational programs aimed at enhancing the public awareness of flood risk and the seriousness of flood warnings, and timely and appropriate action by local emergency and safety authorities.^

Impact damage on selected varieties of apples, pears and other fruits.

During the past years, different laboratory impact response studies have been carrj.ec out in following fruits: apples (2 varieties), pears (4 varieties), Asian or Nashi pears (4 varieties), melons (2 varieties), peaches (2 varieties) and avocados. The methodology of the tests is described, as well as the results and observations obtained in each group of tests. Impact response is compared to bruising susceptibility, bruise characteristics (appearance and structural features) and varietal and ripeness differences.

Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Flash floods are of major relevance in natural disaster management in the Mediterranean region. In many cases, the damaging effects of flash floods can be mitigated by adequate management of flood control reservoirs. This requires the development of suitable models for optimal operation of reservoirs. A probabilistic methodology for calibrating the parameters of a reservoir flood control model (RFCM) that takes into account the stochastic variability of flood events is presented. This study addresses the crucial problem of operating reservoirs during flood events, considering downstream river damages and dam failure risk as conflicting operation criteria. These two criteria are aggregated into a single objective of total expected damages from both the maximum released flows and stored volumes (overall risk index). For each selected parameter set the RFCM is run under a wide range of hydrologic loads (determined through Monte Carlo simulation). The optimal parameter set is obtained through the overall risk index (balanced solution) and then compared with other solutions of the Pareto front. The proposed methodology is implemented at three different reservoirs in the southeast of Spain. The results obtained show that the balanced solution offers a good compromise between the two main objectives of reservoir flood control management

Mid-to Late Holocene flood frequency in the northeastern Alps as recorded in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee

Annually laminated (varved) lake sediments with intercalated detrital layers resulting from sedimentary input by runoff events are ideal archives to establish precisely dated records of past extreme runoff events. In this study, the mid- to late Holocene varved sediments of Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) were analysed by combining sedimentological, geophysical and geochemical methods. This approach allows to distinguish two types of detrital layers related to different types of extreme runoff events (floods and debris flows) and to detect changes in flood activity during the last 7100 years. In total, 271 flood and 47 debris flow layers, deposited during spring and summer, were identified, which cluster in 18 main flood episodes (FE 1-18) with durations of 30-50 years each. These main flood periods occurred during the Late Neolithic (7100-7050 vyr BP and 6470-4450 vyr BP), the late Bronze Age and the early Iron Age (3300-3250 and 2800-2750 vyr BP), the late Iron Age (2050-2000 vyr BP), throughout the Dark Ages Cold Period (1500-1200 vyr BP), and at the end of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age (810-430 vyr BP). Summer flood episodes in Lake Mondsee are generally more abundant during the last 1500 years, often coinciding with major advances of alpine glaciers. Prior to 1500 vyr BP, spring/summer floods and debris flows are generally less frequent, indicating a lower number of intense rainfall events that triggered erosion. In comparison with the increase of late Holocene flood activity in western and northwestern (NW) Europe, commencing already as early as 2800 yr BP, the hydro-meteorological shift in the Lake Mondsee region occurred much later. These time lags in the onset of increased hydrological activity might be either due to regional differences in atmospheric circulation pattern or to the sensitivity of the individual flood archives. The Lake Mondsee sediments represent the first precisely dated and several millennia long summer flood record for the northeastern (NE) Alps, a key region at the climatic boundary of Atlantic, Mediterranean and East European air masses aiding a better understanding of regional and seasonal peculiarities of flood occurrence under changing climate conditions.

Flood warning system : does your community need one? /

Mode of access: Internet.

Buffalo Creek Tributary A flood control project in Palatine Township, Cook County, Illinois : executive summary /

Description of a project to replace box culverts with bridges and to widen the channel bottom of Tributary A of Buffalo Creek.

Directory of floodplain agencies /

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