Multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature using support vector machine

Climate change impact assessment studies involve downscaling large-scale atmospheric predictor variables (LSAPVs) simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) to site-scale meteorological variables. This article presents a least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM)-based methodology for multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature series. The methodology involves (1) delineation of sites in the study area into clusters based on correlation structure of predictands, (2) downscaling LSAPVs to monthly time series of predictands at a representative site identified in each of the clusters, (3) translation of the downscaled information in each cluster from the representative site to that at other sites using LS-SVM inter-site regression relationships, and (4) disaggregation of the information at each site from monthly to daily time scale using k-nearest neighbour disaggregation methodology. Effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by application to data pertaining to four sites in the catchment of Beas river basin, India. Simulations of Canadian coupled global climate model (CGCM3.1/T63) for four IPCC SRES scenarios namely A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT were downscaled to future projections of the predictands in the study area. Comparison of results with those based on recently proposed multivariate multiple linear regression (MMLR) based downscaling method and multi-site multivariate statistical downscaling (MMSD) method indicate that the proposed method is promising and it can be considered as a feasible choice in statistical downscaling studies. The performance of the method in downscaling daily minimum temperature was found to be better when compared with that in downscaling daily maximum temperature. Results indicate an increase in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures at all the sites for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The projected increment is high for A2 scenario, and it is followed by that for A1B, B1 and COMMIT scenarios. Projections, in general, indicated an increase in mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures during January to February and October to December.

Performance evaluation of AR4 Climate Models in simulating daily precipitation over the Indian region using skill scores

The ability of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4) for the 20th century climate (20C3M scenario) to simulate the daily precipitation over the Indian region is explored. The skill is evaluated on a 2.5A degrees x 2.5A degrees grid square compared with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) gridded dataset, and every GCM is ranked for each of these grids based on its skill score. Skill scores (SSs) are estimated from the probability density functions (PDFs) obtained from observed IMD datasets and GCM simulations. The methodology takes into account (high) extreme precipitation events simulated by GCMs. The results are analyzed and presented for three categories and six zones. The three categories are the monsoon season (JJASO - June to October), non-monsoon season (JFMAMND - January to May, November, December) and for the entire year (''Annual''). The six precipitation zones are peninsular, west central, northwest, northeast, central northeast India, and the hilly region. Sensitivity analysis was performed for three spatial scales, 2.5A degrees grid square, zones, and all of India, in the three categories. The models were ranked based on the SS. The category JFMAMND had a higher SS than the JJASO category. The northwest zone had higher SSs, whereas the peninsular and hilly regions had lower SS. No single GCM can be identified as the best for all categories and zones. Some models consistently outperformed the model ensemble, and one model had particularly poor performance. Results show that most models underestimated the daily precipitation rates in the 0-1 mm/day range and overestimated it in the 1-15 mm/day range.

Daily scale wintertime sea surface temperature and IPC-Navidad variability in the southern Bay of Biscay from 1981 to 2010

The combination of remotely sensed gappy Sea surface temperature (SST) images with the missing data filling DINEOF (data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions) technique, followed by a principal component analysis of the reconstructed data, has been used to identify the time evolution and the daily scale variability of the wintertime surface signal of the Iberian Poleward Current (IPC), or Navidad, during the 1981-2010 period. An exhaustive comparison with the existing bibliography, and the vertical temperature and salinity profiles related to its extremes over the Bay of Biscay area, show that the obtained time series accurately reflect the IPC-Navidad variability. Once a time series for the evolution of the SST signal of the current over the last decades is well established, this time series is used to propose a physical mechanism in relation to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, involving both atmospheric and oceanic variables. According to the proposed mechanism, an atmospheric circulation anomaly observed in both the 500 hPa and the surface levels generates atmospheric surface level pressure, wind-stress and heat-flux anomalies. In turn, those surface level atmospheric anomalies induce mutually coherent SST and sea level anomalies over the North Atlantic area, and locally, in the Bay of Biscay area. These anomalies, both locally over the Bay of Biscay area and over the North Atlantic, are in agreement with several mechanisms that have separately been related to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, i.e. the south-westerly winds, the joint effect of baroclinicity and relief (JEBAR) effect, the topographic beta effect and a weakened North Atlantic gyre.

Reconstructing an 83-Year Time Series of Daily Sea Surface Temperature at Pacific Grove, California

Daily sea surface temperatures have been acquired at the Hopkins Marine Station in Pacific Grove, California since January 20, 1919.This time series is one of the longest oceanographic records along the U.S. west coast. Because of its length it is well-suited for studying climate-related and oceanic variability on interannual, decadal, and interdecadal time scales. The record, however, is not homogeneous, has numerous gaps, contains possible outliers, and the observations were not always collected at the same time each day. Because of these problems we have undertaken the task of reconstructing this long and unique series. We describe the steps that were taken and the methods that were used in this reconstruction. Although the methods employed are basic, we believe that they are consistent with the quality of the data. The reconstructed record has values at every time point, original, or estimated, and has been adjusted for time-of-day variations where this information was available. Possible outliers have also been examined and replaced where their credibility could not be established. Many of the studies that have employed the Hopkins time series have not discussed the issue of data quality and how these problems were addressed. Because of growing interest in this record, it is important that a single, well-documented version be adopted, so that the results of future analyses can be directly compared. Although additional work may be done to further improve the quality of this record, it is now available via the internet. [PDF contains 48 pages]

Preliminary economic evaluation of 10 metre (LOA) shallow draft vessel in daily fishery, off Imo River, Cross River State

Scientists from the Institute with the collaboration of Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), Rome designed and built a 10-m (LOA) shallow draft vessel. The prototype vessel was tried at Uta-Ewa, Ikot Abasi, Cross River State. The paper deals with the preliminary economic analysis of the performance of prototype vessel. An analysis of the annual return has shown that 43.66% of the annual gross income was paid to labour; 15.91% was spent on repairs and replacements; 7.76% on fuel and lubricants; 24.38% on maintenance costs and the return of investment, 6.2%. This low return of investment is attributable to high percentage of labour costs as well as low fishing intensity

Validation of daily growth increments and estimation of growth rates of larval and early juvenile black skipjack, Euthynnus lineatus, using otoliths

ENGLISH: Increments in otoliths (sagittae) were examined, using light and scanning electron microscopy, to determine ages and estimate growth rates of larval and early-juvenile black skipjack, Euthynnus lineatus. Larvae and juveniles were collected between 1987 and 1989 from coastal waters of Panama in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Results from a laboratory experiment indicated that immersion for 6 and 12 hours in a 200 mg/L solution of tetracycline hydrochloride adequately marks otoliths and that increments are formed daily in the sagittae of postflexion larvae and early juveniles. Further, survival rates of tetracycline-treated fish were not significantly different from those of control fish. Growth rates were derived from length-age relationships of 218 field-collected specimens ranging in size from 5.7 to 20.3 mm SL. A growth rate of 0.70 mm/d was estimated from the weighted regression of standard length on age for all specimens. This rate lies within the range reported for larvae and early juveniles of other species of subtropical and tropical scombrids. Growth rates of postflexion larvae and early juveniles were not significantly different between the rainy season in July-August 1988 and the dry, upwelling season in January-February 1989. Growth was, however, significantly more variable for older individuals in July-August than in January-February, and may correspond, in part, to seasonal patchiness of prey. The growth rates of the otoliths relative to fish length were also not significantly different between seasons; however, the otoliths were larger relative to the lengths of fish collected in the rainy season, which may reflect slower growth during earlier larval stages. SPANISH: Se examinaron incrementos en otolitos (ságitas), usando microscopia de luz y de barrido electrónico, a fin de determinar la edad y estimar las tasas de crecimiento de barriletes negros, Euthynnus lineatus, larvales y juveniles tempranos. Entre 1987 y 1989 se capturaron larvas y juveniles en las aguas costeras de Panamá en el Océano Pacífico oriental. Los resultados de un experimento de laboratorio indicaron que una inmersión de 6 a 12 horas de duración en una solución de 200 mg/L de hidrocloro de tetraciclina marca los otolitos adecuadamente y que los incrementos se forman a diario en las ságitas de larvas en postflexión y juveniles tempranos. Además, las tasas de supervivencia de los peces tratados con tetraciclina no fueron significativamente diferentes a aquellas de los peces de control. Se calcularon las tasas de crecimiento a partir de las relaciones de talla-edad de 218 especímenes de TE entre 5.7 y 20.3 mm capturados en el mar. Se estimó.una tasa de crecimiento de 0.70 mm/día a partir de la regresión ponderada de talla estándar sobre edad para todos los especímenes. Esta tasa cae dentro del rango reportado para larvas y juveniles tempranos de otras especies de escómbridos subtropicales y tropicales. Las tasas de crecimiento de larvas en postflexión y juveniles tempranos no fueron significativamente diferentes entre la temporada de lluvias en julio-agosto de 1988 y la temporada de sequía y afloramiento en enero-febrero de 1989. Sin emoargo, el crecimiento fue significativamente más variable para los individuos de mayor edad en julio-agosto que en enero-febrero, y quizás corresponda parcialmente a la irregularidad temporal de la abundancia de presas. Las tasas de crecimiento de los otolitos en relación a la talla de los peces tampoco fueron significativamente diferentes entre temporadas; sin embargo, los otolitos eran más grandes en relación a la talla en peces capturados en la temporada de lluvias, lo cual podría reflejar crecimiento más lento durante las etapas larvales más tempranas. (PDF contains 42 pages.)

Daily MOBY Data Processing

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Observations on the distribution, daytime migrations and daily food intake rates of Chaoborus flavicans (Meigen) in the Goggausee [Translation from: Carinthia II 165(85), 184-190, 1975]

The Goggausee, in spite of its modest depth (Zmax = 12 metres), shows meromictic properties: autumn and spring circulation extend only to a depth of 8 metres. The water layers below about 10 metres are constantly oxygen-free, the critical zone with at least intermittent oxygen loss lies at a depth of between 6 and 10 metres. A limnological excursion in May 1974 offered an opportunity to investigate the daily vertical migration of the species Chaoborus flavicans with reference to its food supply of zooplankton as well as the chance to carry out some preliminary experiments on its rate of food intake. Among the studied features were the planktonic depth distribution of Chaoborus flavicans and the food intake of Chaoborus larvae under experimental conditions.

Feeding ecology of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in North Carolina: diet, daily ration, and consumption of Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus)

Diet, gastric evacuation rates, daily ration, and population-level prey demand of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) were estimated in the continental shelf waters off North Carolina. Bluefin tuna stomachs were collected from commercial fishermen during the late fall and winter months of 2003–04, 2004–05, and 2005–06. Diel patterns in mean gut fullness values were used to estimate gastric evacuation rates. Daily ration determined from mean gut fullness values and gastric evacuation rates was used, along with bluefin tuna population size and residency times, to estimate population-level consumption by bluefin tuna on Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus). Bluefin tuna diet (n= 448) was dominated by Atlantic menhaden; other teleosts, portunid crabs, and squid were of mostly minor importance. The time required to empty the stomach after peak gut fullness was estimated to be ~20 hours. Daily ration estimates were approximately 2% of body weight per day. At current western Atlantic population levels, bluefin tuna predation on Atlantic menhaden is minimal compared to predation by other known predators and the numbers taken in commercial harvest. Bluefin tuna appear to occupy coastal waters in North Carolina during winter to prey upon Atlantic menhaden. Thus, changes in the Atlantic menhaden stock status or distribution would alter the winter foraging locations of bluefin

Recalculated diet and daily ration of the shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus), with a focus on quantifying predation on bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) in the northwest Atlantic Ocean

The diet and daily ration of the shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus) in the northwest Atlantic were re-examined to determine whether fluctuations in prey abundance and availability are reflected in these two biological variables. During the summers of 2001 and 2002, stomach content data were collected from fishing tournaments along the northeast coast of the United States. These data were quantified by using four diet indices and were compared to index calculations from historical diet data collected from 1972 through 1983. Bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) were the predominant prey in the 1972–83 and 2001–02 diets, accounting for 92.6% of the current diet by weight and 86.9% of the historical diet by volume. From the 2001– 02 diet data, daily ration was estimated and it indicated that shortfin makos must consume roughly 4.6% of their body weight per day to fulfill energetic demands. The daily energetic requirement was broken down by using a calculated energy content for the current diet of 4909 KJ/kg. Based on the proportional energy of bluefish in the diet by weight, an average shortfin mako consumes roughly 500 kg of bluefish per year off the northeast coast of the United States. The results are discussed in relation to the potential effect of intense shortfin mako predation on bluefish abundance in the region.

Modification of the biological intercept model to account for ontogenetic effects in laboratory-reared delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus)*

We investigated age, growth, and ontogenetic effects on the proportionality of otolith size to fish size in laboratory-reared delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) from the San Francisco Bay estuary. Delta smelt larvae were reared from hatching in laboratory mesocosms for 100 days. Otolith increments from known-age fish were enumerated to validate that growth increments were deposited daily and to validate the age of fish at first ring formation. Delta smelt were found to lay down daily ring increments; however, the first increment did not form until six days after hatching. The relationship between otolith size and fish size was not biased by age or growth-rate effects but did exhibit an interruption in linear growth owing to an ontogenetic shift at the postflexon stage. To back-calculate the size-at-age of individual fish, we modified the biological intercept (BI) model to account for ontogenetic changes in the otolith-size−fish-size relationship and compared the results to the time-varying growth model, as well as the modified Fry model. We found the modified BI model estimated more accurately the size-at-age from hatching to 100 days after hatching. Before back-calculating size-at-age with existing models, we recommend a critical evaluation of the effects that age, growth, and ontogeny can have on the otolith-size−fish-size relations

Age and growth of three species of Lake Victoria fish determined by means of otolith daily growth rings

The sagittal otoliths of Lates niloticus, Haplochromis obesus, and Oreochromis niloticus from Lake Victoria were examined for daily growth rings using scanning electron microscopy. In the three species the increments were clear and thick enough to allow future studies with light microscopy. The daily nature of the increments seems supported by the rhythmic growth that were found.