Assessment of land surface temperature and heat fluxes over Delhi using remote sensing data

Surface energy processes has an essential role in urban weather, climate and hydrosphere cycles, as well in urban heat redistribution. The research was undertaken to analyze the potential of Landsat and MODIS data in retrieving biophysical parameters in estimating land surface temperature & heat fluxes diurnally in summer and winter seasons of years 2000 and 2010 and understanding its effect on anthropogenic heat disturbance over Delhi and surrounding region. Results show that during years 2000-2010, settlement and industrial area increased from 5.66 to 11.74% and 4.92 to 11.87% respectively which in turn has direct effect on land surface temperature (LST) and heat fluxes including anthropogenic heat flux. Based on the energy balance model for land surface, a method to estimate the increase in anthropogenic heat flux (Has) has been proposed. The settlement and industrial areas has higher amounts of energy consumed and has high values of Has in all seasons. The comparison of satellite derived LST with that of field measured values show that Landsat estimated values are in close agreement within error of 2 degrees C than MODIS with an error of 3 degrees C. It was observed that, during 2000 and 2010, the average change in surface temperature using Landsat over settlement & industrial areas of both seasons is 1.4 degrees C & for MODIS data is 3.7 degrees C. The seasonal average change in anthropogenic heat flux (Has) estimated using Landsat & MODIS is up by around 38 W/m(2) and 62 W/m(2) respectively while higher change is observed over settlement and concrete structures. The study reveals that the dynamic range of Has values has increased in the 10 year period due to the strong anthropogenic influence over the area. The study showed that anthropogenic heat flux is an indicator of the strength of urban heat island effect, and can be used to quantify the magnitude of the urban heat island effect. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of nonlinearities from pseudodynamic and dynamic responses of bridge structures using the Delay Vector Variance method

Analysis of the variability in the responses of large structural systems and quantification of their linearity or nonlinearity as a potential non-invasive means of structural system assessment from output-only condition remains a challenging problem. In this study, the Delay Vector Variance (DVV) method is used for full scale testing of both pseudo-dynamic and dynamic responses of two bridges, in order to study the degree of nonlinearity of their measured response signals. The DVV detects the presence of determinism and nonlinearity in a time series and is based upon the examination of local predictability of a signal. The pseudo-dynamic data is obtained from a concrete bridge during repair while the dynamic data is obtained from a steel railway bridge traversed by a train. We show that DVV is promising as a marker in establishing the degree to which a change in the signal nonlinearity reflects the change in the real behaviour of a structure. It is also useful in establishing the sensitivity of instruments or sensors deployed to monitor such changes. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Damage assessment of composite plate structures with material and measurement uncertainty

Composite materials are very useful in structural engineering particularly in weight sensitive applications. Two different test models of the same structure made from composite materials can display very different dynamic behavior due to large uncertainties associated with composite material properties. Also, composite structures can suffer from pre-existing imperfections like delaminations, voids or cracks during fabrication. In this paper, we show that modeling and material uncertainties in composite structures can cause considerable problein in damage assessment. A recently developed C-0 shear deformable locking free refined composite plate element is employed in the numerical simulations to alleviate modeling uncertainty. A qualitative estimate of the impact of modeling uncertainty on the damage detection problem is made. A robust Fuzzy Logic System (FLS) with sliding window defuzzifier is used for delamination damage detection in composite plate type structures. The FLS is designed using variations in modal frequencies due to randomness in material properties. Probabilistic analysis is performed using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) on a composite plate finite element model. It is demonstrated that the FLS shows excellent robustness in delamination detection at very high levels of randomness in input data. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lessons from the northern hake long-term management plan: Could the economic assessment have accepted it?

An economic expert working group (STECF/SGBRE-07-05) was convened in 2007 for evaluating the potential economic consequences of a Long-Term Management Plan for the northern hake. Analyzing all the scenarios proposed by biological assessment, they found that keeping the F in the status quo level was the best policy in terms of net present values for both yield and profits. This result is counter intuitive because it may indicate that effort costs do no affect the economic reference points. However, it is well accepted that the inclusion of costs affects negatively the economic reference points. In this paper, applying a dynamic agestructured model to the northern hake, we show that the optimal fishing mortality that maximizes the net present value of profits is lower than Fmax.

In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

A biogeographic assessment of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary: a review of boundary expansion concepts for NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuary Program

The priority management goal of the National Marine Sanctuaries Program (NMSP) is to protect marine ecosystems and biodiversity. This goal requires an understanding of broad-scale ecological relationships and linkages between marine resources and physical oceanography to support an ecosystem management approach. The Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (CINMS) is currently reviewing its management plan and investigating boundary expansion. A management plan study area (henceforth, Study Area) was described that extends from the current boundary north to the mainland, and extends north to Point Sal and south to Point Dume. Six additional boundary concepts were developed that vary in area and include the majority of the Study Area. The NMSP and CINMS partnered with NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Biogeography Team to conduct a biogeographic assessment to characterize marine resources and oceanographic patterns within and adjacent to the sanctuary. This assessment includes a suite of quantitative spatial and statistical analyses that characterize biological and oceanographic patterns in the marine region from Point Sal to the U.S.-Mexico border. These data were analyzed using an index which evaluates an ecological “cost-benefit” within the proposed boundary concepts and the Study Area. The sanctuary resides in a dynamic setting where two oceanographic regimes meet. Cold northern waters mix with warm southern waters around the Channel Islands creating an area of transition that strongly influences the regions oceanography. In turn, these processes drive the biological distributions within the region. This assessment analyzes bathymetry, benthic substrate, bathymetric life-zones, sea surface temperature, primary production, currents, submerged aquatic vegetation, and kelp in the context of broad-scale patterns and relative to the proposed boundary concepts and the Study Area. Boundary cost-benefit results for these parameters were variable due to their dynamic nature; however, when analyzed in composite the Study Area and Boundary Concept 2 were considered the most favorable. Biological data were collected from numerous resource agencies and university scientists for this assessment. Fish and invertebrate trawl data were used to characterize community structure. Habitat suitability models were developed for 15 species of macroinvertebrates and 11 species of fish that have significant ecological, commercial, or recreational importance in the region and general patterns of ichthyoplankton distribution are described. Six surveys of ship and plane at-sea surveys were used to model marine bird diversity from Point Arena to the U.S.-Mexico border. Additional surveys were utilized to estimate density and colony counts for nine bird species. Critical habitat for western snowy plover and the location of California least tern breeding pairs were also analyzed. At-sea surveys were also used to describe the distribution of 14 species of cetaceans and five species of pinnipeds. Boundary concept cost-benefit indices revealed that Boundary Concept 2 and the Study Area were most favorable for the majority of the species-specific analyses. Boundary Concept 3 was most favorable for bird diversity across the region. Inadequate spatial resolution for fish and invertebrate community data and incompatible sampling effort information for bird and mammal data precluded boundary cost-benefit analysis.

Developing a growth-transition matrix for the stock assessment of the green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) off Maine

The green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) is important to the economy of Maine. It is the state’s fourth largest fishery by value. The fishery has experienced a continuous decline in landings since 1992 because of decreasing stock abundance. Because determining the age of sea urchins is often difficult, a formal stock assessment demands the development of a size-structured population dynamic model. One of the most important components in a size-structured model is a growth-transition matrix. We developed an approach for estimating the growth-transition matrix using von Bertalanffy growth parameters estimated in previous studies of the green sea urchin off Maine. This approach explicitly considers size-specific variations associated with yearly growth increments for these urchins. The proposed growth-transition matrix can be updated readily with new information on growth, which is important because changes in stock abundance and the ecosystem will likely result in changes in sea urchin key life history parameters including growth. This growth-transition matrix can be readily incorporated into the size-structured stock assessment model that has been developed for assessing the green sea urchin stock off Maine.

Integration of submersible transect data and high-resolution multibeam sonar imagery for a habitat-based groundfish assessment of Heceta Bank, Oregon

In the face of dramatic declines in groundfish populations and a lack of sufficient stock assessment information, a need has arisen for new methods of assessing groundfish populations. We describe the integration of seafloor transect data gathered by a manned submersible with high-resolution sonar imagery to produce a habitat-based stock assessment system for groundfish. The data sets used in this study were collected from Heceta Bank, Oregon, and were derived from 42 submersible dives (1988–90) and a multibeam sonar survey (1998). The submersible habitat survey investigated seafloor topography and groundfish abundance along 30-minute transects over six predetermined stations and found a statistical relationship between habitat variability and groundfish distribution and abundance. These transects were analyzed in a geographic information system (GIS) by using dynamic segmentation to display changes in habitat along the transects. We used the submersible data to extrapolate fish abundance within uniform habitat patches over broad areas of the bank by means of a habitat classification based on the sonar imagery. After applying a navigation correction to the submersible-based habitat segments, a good correlation with major boundaries on the backscatter and topographic boundaries on the imagery were apparent. Extrapolation of the extent of uniform habitats was made in the vicinity of the dive stations and a preliminary stock assessment of several species of demersal fish was calculated. Such a habitat-based approach will allow researchers to characterize marine communities over large areas of the seafloor.

The study of biological characteristic and population dynamic of Caspian vimba (Vimba vimba persa), in coastal waters of Caspian Sea (Mazandaran Province)

This study was conducted to determine reproduction characteristics, diet regime, age structure and population dynamics parameters of the vimba vimba persa (Pallas, 1811) in Mazandaran waters of the Caspian Sea, from October 2008 to September 2009. A total of 994 specimens were monthly collected by beach seine and cast net from six fish landings of Ramsar, Tonekabon, Chaloos, Mahmood Abad, Sari and Behshahr. Biometric characters were measured for each specimen at the laboratory. Scales were used for age determination. Sex determination and fecundity were determined. Population dynamic parameters as well as stock assessment including cohort analysis were estimated using FISAT software. The finding showed that the mean of fork length and body weight of the Caspian Vimba were 168.4±2.6 mm and 71.94±32.24 g respectively. Strong correlation was found between these two variables (a= 0.012; b = 3.047; r2 = 0.955). 92 specimens were studied from the fecundity point of view. This species was found to have more abundance in spring (esp. Apr-May). The samples composed of 397(42.6%) male, 537(57.4%) female; Overall sex ratio (M: F =1: 1.35) was significantly different from the expected 1:1 ratio (p ≤0.05). The advanced stages of maturity (4th & 5th) were found in April and May. The highest Gonadosomatic Index in female was in May and the lowest one was in July. This fish is therefore a spring spawner. The maximum absolute and relative fecundities were 34640 and 260.9, respectively; the minimum absolute and relative fecundities were 5400 and 94.5 respectively. The averages of absolute and relative fecundities were 17198±7710 and 171.85±48.8, respectively. Coefficient vacuity index was 59.2% which indicates that this fish is mesophagous. Among of living creature consumes by Caspian Vimba mollusks, 76 arthropods, worms, plants, detritus and fishes were found 32.9% , 26.7% , 13.4% , 17% , 4.4% and 1.6% respectively. The infinite fork lengths were 261 mm for females, 25mm for males and 261 mm for both sexes respectively. For population growth and mortality parameters; K ( 0.28 per year for both sexes, 0.3 per year for males, 0.33 per year for females); t0 ( -0.65 year for both sexes, -0.23 year in females, -0.51 year in males ); Φ' ( 2.28 ); Z ( 0.98 per year ); M ( 0.59 per year); F ( 0.39 per year) and Exploitation coefficient was 0.4. The analysis showed that total biomass and MSY were 1336 and 528.8 tonnes respectively.

Aquaculture technologies in Bangladesh: an assessment of technical and economic performance and producer behavior

This study evaluates the performance of a wide range of aquaculture systems in Bangladesh. It is by far the largest of its kind attempted to date. The purpose of this study was to identify and analyze the most important production systems, rather than to provide a nationally representative overview of the entire aquaculture sector of Bangladesh. As such, the study yields a huge amount of new information on production technologies that have never been thoroughly researched before. The study reveals an extremely diverse array of specialized, dynamic and rapidly evolving production technologies, adapted to a variety of market niches and local environmental conditions. This is a testament to the innovativeness of farmers and other value chain actors who have been the principal drivers of this development in Bangladesh. Data was collected from six geographical hubs. This survey was conducted from November 2011 to June 2012. Technological performance in terms of detailed input and output information, fish management practices, credit and marketing, and social and environmental issues were captured by the survey questionnaire, which had both open and closed format questions. The study generated insights that enable better understanding of aquaculture development in Bangladesh.

Dynamic compressive response of composite square honeycombs

Carbon fibre-epoxy composite square honeycombs, and the parent composite material, were tested in quasi-static compression at a strain rate of 10 -3 s -1 and in dynamic compression at strain rates of 10 3-10 4 s -1 using an instrumented Kolsky bar arrangement. Taken together, these tests provide an assessment of the potential of this composite topology for use as a lightweight sandwich core. The honeycombs had two relative densities, 0.12 and 0.24, and two material orientations, ±45° and 0/90° with respect to the prismatic, loading direction of the honeycomb. Honeycomb manufacture was by slotting, assembling and bonding together carbon fibre/epoxy woven plies of composite sheets of 2 × 2 twill weave construction. The peak value of wall stress in the honeycombs was about one third that of the parent material, for all strain rates. An elastic finite element analysis was used to trace the source of this knock-down in strength: a stress concentration exists at the root of the slots and leads to premature failure by microbuckling. Shock-wave effects were evident at impact velocities exceeding 50 ms -1 for the honeycomb of relative density 0.12. This was traced to stubbing of the buckled cell walls against the face of the Kolsky bar. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment effects of cage culture on nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics in relation to fallowing in a shallow lake in China

Nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics in relation to fallowing in a fish cage farm was investigated in a shallow lake in China. Four sampling sites were set: beneath the cages, at the cage sides, and 50 and 100 m east of the cage farm. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in lake water and sediment were analyzed during a 2-year rearing cycle. The cage culture had a fish yield of 16.3-39.2 tonnes in the study period. Based on the mass balance equation, 1533-3084 kg TN and 339-697 kg TP were contributed to the lake environment. Nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations showed greater increase in the first culture period than in the second rearing cycle. No obvious changes were found at the sampling sites 50 and 100 m east of the cages during the study periods. Main impacts were found close to the cages (beneath the cages and at the cage side); the sampling points at the cage side showed relatively high TN and TP sedimentation. After 3 months of fallowing, water TN and TP decreased significantly but the sediment TN and TP contents remained high. Therefore, recovery seems to happen during fallowing but attention should be paid to whether the culture continues to operate in the future.

Emergy Assessment of a Wheat-Maize Rotation System with Different Water Assignments in the North China Plain

Sustainable water use is seriously compromised in the North China Plain (NCP) due to the huge water requirements of agriculture, the largest use of water resources. An integrated approach which combines the ecosystem model with emergy analysis is presented to determine the optimum quantity of irrigation for sustainable development in irrigated cropping systems. Since the traditional emergy method pays little attention to the dynamic interaction among components of the ecological system and dynamic emergy accounting is in its infancy, it is hard to evaluate the cropping system in hypothetical situations or in response to specific changes. In order to solve this problem, an ecosystem model (Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP) model) is introduced for emergy analysis to describe the production processes. Some raw data, collected by investigating or observing in conventional emergy analysis, may be calculated by the VIP model in the new approach. To demonstrate the advantage of this new approach, we use it to assess the wheat-maize rotation cropping system at different irrigation levels and derive the optimum quantity of irrigation according to the index of ecosystem sustainable development in NCP. The results show, the optimum quantity of irrigation in this region should be 240-330 mm per year in the wheat system and no irrigation in the maize system, because with this quantity of irrigation the rotation crop system reveals: best efficiency in energy transformation (transformity = 6.05E + 4 sej/J); highest sustainability (renewability = 25%); lowest environmental impact (environmental loading ratio = 3.5) and the greatest sustainability index (Emergy Sustainability Index = 0.47) compared with the system in other irrigation amounts. This study demonstrates that application of the new approach is broader than the conventional emergy analysis and the new approach is helpful in optimizing resources allocation, resource-savings and maintaining agricultural sustainability.

Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Training in and assessment of the procedural skills required to perform peripheral nerve blockade

The training and ongoing education of medical practitioners has undergone major changes in an incremental fashion over the past 15 years. These changes have been driven by patient safety, educational, economic and legislative/regulatory factors. In the near future, training in procedural skills will undergo a paradigm shift to proficiency based progression with associated requirements for competence-based programmes, valid, reliable assessment tools and simulation technology. Before training begins, the learning outcomes require clear definition; any form of assessment applied should include measurement of these outcomes. Currently training in a procedural skill often takes place on an ad hoc basis. The number of attempts necessary to attain a defined degree of proficiency varies from procedure to procedure. Convincing evidence exists that simulation training helps trainees to acquire skills more efficiently rather than relying on opportunities in their clinical practice. Simulation provides a safe, stress free environment for trainees for skill acquisition, generalization and transfer via deliberate practice. The work described in this thesis contributes to a greater understanding of how medical procedures can be performed more safely and effectively through education. The effect of feedback, provided to novices in a standardized setting on a bench model, based on knowledge of performance was associated with an increase in the speed of skill acquisition and a decrease in error rate during initial learning. The timing of feedback was also associated with effective learning of skill. A marked attrition of skills (independent of the type of feedback provided) was demonstrable 24 hrs after they have first been learned. Using the principles of feedback as described above, when studying the effect of an intense training program on novices of varied years of experience in anaesthesia (i.e. the present training programmes / courses of an intense training day for one or more procedures). There was a marked attrition of skill at 24 hours with a significant correlation with increasing years of experience; there also appeared to be an inverse relationship between years of experience in anaesthesia and performance. The greater the number of years of practice experience, the longer it required a learner to acquire a new skill. The findings of the studies described in this thesis may have important implications for the trainers, trainees and training bodies in the design and implementation of training courses and the formats of delivery of changing curricula. Both curricula and training modalities will need to take account of characteristics of individual learners and the dynamic nature of procedural healthcare.