Diagnostic yield of short-term video-EEG monitoring for epilepsy and PNESs: a European assessment.

INTRODUCTION: Although long-term video-EEG monitoring (LVEM) is routinely used to investigate paroxysmal events, short-term video-EEG monitoring (SVEM) lasting <24 h is increasingly recognized as a cost-effective tool. Since, however, relatively few studies addressed the yield of SVEM among different diagnostic groups, we undertook the present study to investigate this aspect. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 226 consecutive SVEM recordings over 6 years. All patients were referred because routine EEGs were inconclusive. Patients were classified into 3 suspected diagnostic groups: (1) group with epileptic seizures, (2) group with psychogenic nonepileptic seizures (PNESs), and (3) group with other or undetermined diagnoses. We assessed recording lengths, interictal epileptiform discharges, epileptic seizures, PNESs, and the definitive diagnoses obtained after SVEM. RESULTS: The mean age was 34 (±18.7) years, and the median recording length was 18.6 h. Among the 226 patients, 127 referred for suspected epilepsy - 73 had a diagnosis of epilepsy, none had a diagnosis of PNESs, and 54 had other or undetermined diagnoses post-SVEM. Of the 24 patients with pre-SVEM suspected PNESs, 1 had epilepsy, 12 had PNESs, and 11 had other or undetermined diagnoses. Of the 75 patients with other diagnoses pre-SVEM, 17 had epilepsy, 11 had PNESs, and 47 had other or undetermined diagnoses. After SVEM, 15 patients had definite diagnoses other than epilepsy or PNESs, while in 96 patients, diagnosis remained unclear. Overall, a definitive diagnosis could be reached in 129/226 (57%) patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that in nearly 3/5 patients without a definitive diagnosis after routine EEG, SVEM allowed us to reach a diagnosis. This procedure should be encouraged in this setting, given its time-effectiveness compared with LVEM.

A theoretical and practical study on linear reforms of dual taxes

We extend the linear reforms introduced by Pf¨ahler (1984) to the case of dual taxes. We study the relative effect that linear dual tax cuts have on the inequality of income distribution -a symmetrical study can be made for dual linear tax hikes-. We also introduce measures of the degree of progressivity for dual taxes and show that they can be connected to the Lorenz dominance criterion. Additionally, we study the tax liability elasticity of each of the reforms proposed. Finally, by means of a microsimulation model and a considerably large data set of taxpayers drawn from 2004 Spanish Income Tax Return population, 1) we compare different yield-equivalent tax cuts applied to the Spanish dual income tax and 2) we investigate how much income redistribution the dual tax reform (Act ‘35/2006’) introduced with respect to the previous tax.

The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU

We use a panel of euro area countries to assess the determinants of long-term sovereign bond yield spreads over the period 1999.01-2010.12. We find that, unlike the period preceding the global financial crisis, European government bond yield spreads are wellexplained by macro- and fiscal fundamentals over the crisis period. We also find that the menu of macro and fiscal risks priced by markets has been significantly enriched since March 2009, including the risk of the crisis’ transmission among EMU member states, international risk and liquidity risk. Finally, we find that sovereign credit ratings are statistically significant in explaining spreads, yet compared to macro- and fiscal fundamentals their role is limited.

Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads

In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.

Is the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy improved by the use of explicit panel-based appropriateness criteria?

BACKGROUND: Increasing the appropriateness of use of upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy is important to improve quality of care while at the same time containing costs. This study explored whether detailed explicit appropriateness criteria significantly improve the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy. METHODS: Consecutive patients referred for upper GI endoscopy at 6 centers (1 university hospital, 2 district hospitals, 3 gastroenterology practices) were prospectively included over a 6-month period. After controlling for disease presentation and patient characteristics, the relationship between the appropriateness of upper GI endoscopy, as assessed by explicit Swiss criteria developed by the RAND/UCLA panel method, and the presence of relevant endoscopic lesions was analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 2088 patients (60% outpatients, 57% men) were included. Analysis was restricted to the 1681 patients referred for diagnostic upper GI endoscopy. Forty-six percent of upper GI endoscopies were judged to be appropriate, 15% uncertain, and 39% inappropriate by the explicit criteria. No cancer was found in upper GI endoscopies judged to be inappropriate. Upper GI endoscopies judged appropriate or uncertain yielded significantly more relevant lesions (60%) than did those judged to be inappropriate (37%; odds ratio 2.6: 95% CI [2.2, 3.2]). In multivariate analyses, the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy was significantly influenced by appropriateness, patient gender and age, treatment setting, and symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Upper GI endoscopies performed for appropriate indications resulted in detecting significantly more clinically relevant lesions than did those performed for inappropriate indications. In addition, no upper GI endoscopy that resulted in a diagnosis of cancer was judged to be inappropriate. The use of such criteria improves patient selection for upper GI endoscopy and can thus contribute to efforts aimed at enhancing the quality and efficiency of care. (Gastrointest Endosc 2000;52:333-41).

Tritordeum, wheat and triticale yield components under multi-local mediterranean drought conditions

The species x location interaction was of great importance in explaining the behaviour of genetic material. The study presented here shows, for the first time, the performance, under field conditions of the new tritordeum species, compared to wheat and triticale in a wide range of Mediterranean countries (Spain, Lebanon and Tunisia). The results obtained revealed that despite the diversity of environmental conditions, the main differences in yield were due to genotypes, especially to differences between species. The multi-local study with different growth conditions revealed important information about the water availability effect on yield. In the lowest yielding environments (Tunisia rainfed), Tritordeum and triticale yields were equivalent. However under better growth conditions (Spain), tritordeum yield was shown to be lower than wheat and triticale. Interestingly, when water limitation was extended during the pre-anthesis period, differences in tritordeum versus wheat-triticale yield rate were larger than when water stress occurred during anthesis. These variations were explained by the fact that kernel weight has been found as the limiting factor for yield determination in tritordeum, and a delay in the anthesis date may have been the cause for the low kernel weight and low yield under Mediterranean drought conditions. Such differences in yield between tritordeum and wheat or triticale could be explained by the fact that tritordeum is a relatively new species and far fewer resources have been devoted to its improvement when compared to wheat and triticale. Our results suggest that breeding efforts should be directed to an earlier anthesis date and a longer grain filling period. tritordeum proved to have possibilities to be grown under drought environments as a new crop, since its performance was quite close to wheat and triticale. Besides, it has qualitative added values that may improve farmers' income per unit land.

THE HIGH DIAGNOSTIC YIELD OF A GERIATRIC OUTPATIENT CLINIC

Objectives: To determine characteristics of older patients referred to a geriatric outpatient clinic; 2) to determine the prevalence of geriatric syndromes in this population; 3) to identify main recommendations made to referring primary care physicians. Design: Cross-sectional analysis Setting: Outpatient clinic of the service of geriatric medicine at the University of Lausanne Medical Center, Lausanne, Switzerland. Participants: Community-dwelling patients aged 65 and over referred to the clinic. Measurements: Demographics, social, functional and health status data, main diagnoses identified and recommendations made for primary care physicians were collected prospectively. Results: Subjects (N=206, mean age 79.7±7.6 years, 57.3% women, 48.5% living alone, 36.9% receiving formal home care) were referred by primary care physicians (76%), hospitalists (18%), or family members (7%). Main reasons for referral were request for comprehensive assessment, cognitive evaluation, and mobility assessment (45.2%, 26.2%, and 15.5%, respectively). 21.4% of patients are independent in Lawton's Instrumental ADL and 47.1% are independent in Katz's Basic ADL, and 57.3% of patients reported having fallen once or more over the last year. Overall, 76.2% of patients had gait and balance impairment, 72.8% cognitive impairment, 57.3% polypharmacy (≥6 drugs; median 6.5±3.9, IQR 4-8), 54.4% affective disorder, 48.3% osteoporosis, 45.1% urinary incontinence and 33.8% orthostatic hypotension. Polymorbidity (≥6 geriatric syndromes) was present in 58.3% of referred patients. On average, patients received 10.6±4.0 recommendations, including fall prevention interventions (85.2 % of patients: walking aid adaptation in 48.1%, vitamin D prescription in 59.7%, home hazards assessment in 59.2%, and exercise prescription in 53.4%), referral to a memory clinic (45.6%), and treatment modifications (69.9 % of all patients and 81.6% of patients with polypharmacy, mostly psychotropic drugs discontinuation). Conclusions: Polymorbidity was frequent in these older outpatients, with polypharmacy, mobility and cognitive impairments being most prevalent. Outpatient geriatric consultation is a good opportunity to identify geriatric syndromes and propose interventions to prevent or delay functional decline.

Human Plasma-derived Polymeric IgA and IgM Antibodies Associate with Secretory Component to Yield Biologically Active Secretory-like Antibodies.

Immunotherapy with monoclonal and polyclonal immunoglobulin is successfully applied to improve many clinical conditions, including infection, autoimmune diseases, or immunodeficiency. Most immunoglobulin products, recombinant or plasma-derived, are based on IgG antibodies, whereas to date, the use of IgA for therapeutic application has remained anecdotal. In particular, purification or production of large quantities of secretory IgA (SIgA) for potential mucosal application has not been achieved. In this work, we sought to investigate whether polymeric IgA (pIgA) recovered from human plasma is able to associate with secretory component (SC) to generate SIgA-like molecules. We found that ∼15% of plasma pIgA carried J chain and displayed selective SC binding capacity either in a mixture with monomeric IgA (mIgA) or after purification. The recombinant SC associated covalently in a 1:1 stoichiometry with pIgA and with similar efficacy as colostrum-derived SC. In comparison with pIgA, the association with SC delayed degradation of SIgA by intestinal proteases. Similar results were obtained with plasma-derived IgM. In vitro, plasma-derived IgA and SIgA neutralized Shigella flexneri used as a model pathogen, resulting in a delay of bacteria-induced damage targeted to polarized Caco-2 cell monolayers. The sum of these novel data demonstrates that association of plasma-derived IgA or IgM with recombinant/colostrum-derived SC is feasible and yields SIgA- and SIgM-like molecules with similar biochemical and functional characteristics as mucosa-derived immunoglobulins.

Sources of pre-analytical variations in yield of DNA extracted from blood samples: analysis of 50,000 DNA samples in EPIC.

The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) is a long-term, multi-centric prospective study in Europe investigating the relationships between cancer and nutrition. This study has served as a basis for a number of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) and other types of genetic analyses. Over a period of 5 years, 52,256 EPIC DNA samples have been extracted using an automated DNA extraction platform. Here we have evaluated the pre-analytical factors affecting DNA yield, including anthropometric, epidemiological and technical factors such as center of subject recruitment, age, gender, body-mass index, disease case or control status, tobacco consumption, number of aliquots of buffy coat used for DNA extraction, extraction machine or procedure, DNA quantification method, degree of haemolysis and variations in the timing of sample processing. We show that the largest significant variations in DNA yield were observed with degree of haemolysis and with center of subject recruitment. Age, gender, body-mass index, cancer case or control status and tobacco consumption also significantly impacted DNA yield. Feedback from laboratories which have analyzed DNA with different SNP genotyping technologies demonstrate that the vast majority of samples (approximately 88%) performed adequately in different types of assays. To our knowledge this study is the largest to date to evaluate the sources of pre-analytical variations in DNA extracted from peripheral leucocytes. The results provide a strong evidence-based rationale for standardized recommendations on blood collection and processing protocols for large-scale genetic studies.

Diagnostic yield of a PCR assay in focal complications of brucellosis.

In order to evaluate the diagnostic yield of a PCR assay for patients with focal complications of brucellosis, we studied by PCR and by conventional microbiological techniques 34 nonblood samples from 32 patients with different focal forms of brucellosis. The samples from patients with brucellosis were paired to an equal number of control samples from the same locations of patients whose illnesses had different etiologies. Thirty-three of the 34 nonblood samples (97%) from the brucellosis patients were positive by PCR, whereas Brucella spp. were isolated from only 29.4% of the conventional cultures. For 11.4% of the patients, the confirmatory serological tests were either negative or showed titers below the diagnostic range. Two patients (6.2%) from the control group, both with tuberculous vertebral osteomyelitis, had a positive PCR result. The brucella PCR of blood from these two patients was also positive, and the two strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolated were analyzed by the brucella PCR, with no evidence of amplification. These results show that the PCR assay is far more sensitive than conventional cultures, and this, coupled with its speed and reduction in risk to laboratory workers, makes this technique a very useful tool for the diagnosis of focal complications of brucellosis.

Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve

An affine asset pricing model in which traders have rational but heterogeneous expectations aboutfuture asset prices is developed. We use the framework to analyze the term structure of interestrates and to perform a novel three-way decomposition of bond yields into (i) average expectationsabout short rates (ii) common risk premia and (iii) a speculative component due to heterogeneousexpectations about the resale value of a bond. The speculative term is orthogonal to public informationin real time and therefore statistically distinct from common risk premia. Empirically wefind that the speculative component is quantitatively important accounting for up to a percentagepoint of yields, even in the low yield environment of the last decade. Furthermore, allowing for aspeculative component in bond yields results in estimates of historical risk premia that are morevolatile than suggested by standard Affine Gaussian term structure models which our frameworknests.

Austerity and anarchy: Budget cuts and social unrest in Europe, 1919-2008

Does fiscal consolidation lead to social unrest? Using cross-country evidencefor the period 1919 to 2008, we examine the extent to which societies becomeunstable after budget cuts. The results show a clear correlation between fiscalretrenchment and instability. Expenditure cuts are particularly potent infueling protests; tax rises have only small and insignificant effects. We test ifthe relationship simply reflects economic downturns, using a recently-developedIMF dataset on exogenous expenditure shocks, and conclude that this is not thecase. While autocracies and democracies show broadly similar responses to budgetcuts, countries with more constraints on the executive are less likely to seeunrest after austerity measures. Growing media penetration does not strengthenthe effect of cut-backs on the level of unrest. We also find that austerity episodesthat result in unrest lead to quick reversals of fiscal policy.