Local Currency Pricing, Foreign Monetary Shocks and Exchange Rate Policy

The implications of local currency pricing (LCP) for monetary regime choice are analysed for a country facing foreign monetary shocks. In this analysis expenditure switching is potentially welfare reducing. This contrasts with the existing LCP literature, which focuses on productivity shocks and thus analyses a world where expenditure switching is welfare enhancing. This paper shows that, when home and foreign producers follow LCP, expenditure switching is absent and a floating rate is preferred by the home country. But when only home producers follow LCP, expenditure switching is present and a fixed rate can be welfare enhancing for the home country.

Currency Issues and Options for an Independent Scotland

In this paper we take on the role of a ‘virtual consultant’ to a potentially independent Scotland. What should the exchange rate regime of an independent Scotland look like? We argue that the current proposal of the Scottish government to remain part of the sterling zone is doomed to failure, both because it falls short of a full political and monetary union and because it fails to recognize the reality of the Scottish economy post independence. We argue that the only tenable solution for an independent Scotland is to have a separate currency and for this currency to have some flexibility against Scotland’s main trading partners. One option offered here is managed float or crawl against a basket of currencies.

Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Using survey expectations data and Markov-switching models, this paper evaluates the characteristics and evolution of investors' forecast errors about the yen/dollar exchange rate. Since our model is derived from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) condition and our data cover a period of low interest rates, this study is also related to the forward premium puzzle and the currency carry trade strategy. We obtain the following results. First, with the same forecast horizon, exchange rate forecasts are homogeneous among different industry types, but within the same industry, exchange rate forecasts differ if the forecast time horizon is different. In particular, investors tend to undervalue the future exchange rate for long term forecast horizons; however, in the short run they tend to overvalue the future exchange rate. Second, while forecast errors are found to be partly driven by interest rate spreads, evidence against the UIRP is provided regardless of the forecasting time horizon; the forward premium puzzle becomes more significant in shorter term forecasting errors. Consistent with this finding, our coefficients on interest rate spreads provide indirect evidence of the yen carry trade over only a short term forecast horizon. Furthermore, the carry trade seems to be active when there is a clear indication that the interest rate will be low in the future.

Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices via Offshore and Currency Hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.

IPH response to NI Health and Social Care Board 'Tranforming Your Care' consultation

The 'Transforming Your Care (TYC)' consultation relates to proposals for changes in the delivery of Health and Social Care in Northern Ireland in the context of the TYC report published in December 2011. TYC is about making changes to ensure safe, high quality and sustainable services for patients, service users and staff. TYC sets out proposals in respect of how health and social services will need to adapt and be organised to best meet the needs associated with population ageing, increasing long-term conditions and other challenges. Key points from IPH response include: IPH welcomes the HSC commitment to transform health and social care services to meet Northern Ireland’s changing population health needs Inequalities are a dominant feature of health service utilisation patterns in Northern Ireland – for example hospital admission rates for self-harm and alcohol-related admissions in the most deprived areas are double the regional figure. IPH recommends that

IPH response to Health and Social Care Board and Public Health Agency Community Development Strategy

The Health and Social Care Board (HSCB) and the Public Health Agency (PHA) launched a new Community Development Strategy for public consultation.  The HSCB and PHA want to see strong, resilient communities where everyone has good health and wellbeing, places where people look out for each other and have community pride in where they live. The HSCB and PHA seek a number of benefits from implementing this strategy including; a reduction in health and wellbeing inequalities, which also means addressing the social factors that affect health; strengthening partnership working with service users, the community and voluntary sectors and other organisations; strengthening families and communities; supporting volunteering and making best use of our resources. Key points from the IPH summary include IPH welcome the Community Development Strategy as an approach to enhance health and wellbeing and tackle health inequalities in Northern Ireland.   IPH recommend the current three strategy documents (Full and summary versions and the Performance Management Framework) are merged into one document for greater clarity. Reference to the Performance Management Framework is required in the main body of the text is to ensure good practice is implemented. IPH welcome the focus on tackling health inequalities using community development approaches however the contribution of community development approaches needs to be highlighted. HIA is a tool to support community engagement and provides a mechanism for HSCB and PHA to support the implementation of this strategy.

The Implamentation and Evaluation of a Framework Supporting Effective First Contact Care across the Southern Health & Social Services Board (PDF 278 KB)

Interim report on the Southern Health and Social Services Board's Community Nursing Strategy Pilot Project

Report to the Minister for Health and Children: Independent Examination related to the Medical Council and South-Eastern Health Board (Dr John Harding Price)

The Minister for Health and Children has requested that an independent review be carried out of the circumstances surrounding the employment of a UK based Consultant Psychiatrist, Dr John Harding-Price, to a locum psychiatrist position with the South Eastern Health Board (SEHB) while he was suspended by the General Medical Council (GMC) in the United Kingdom and consequently the subject of legal proceedings by the Medical Council in Ireland. The Consultant was continuously registered with the Medical Council since 1968. Download the document here

Review Of The Circumstances Surrounding The Elapse Of Time In Bringing To Completion The Western Health Board Inquiry Into Allegations Of Abuse In The Brothers Of Charity Services, Galway

Review Of The CircumstancesSurrounding The Elapse Of TimeIn Bringing To CompletionThe Western Health Board Inquiry IntoAllegations Of Abuse In The BrothersOf Charity Services, Galway Click here to download PDF 104kb

Review of Roles & Responsibilities of the Food Safety Promotion Board (FSPB/SafeFood)

The Department carried out a review during 2012 on FSPB’s work in the food safety, diet and nutrition areas. This review, approved by the Minister on 25 January 2013, provides a summary of the responses received and recommendations made. Click here to download   PDF 63KB  

National Paediatric Hospital Development Board - Design Team Procurement

The National Paediatric Hospital Development Board invited interested parties to a presentation introducing the Design Team Tendering Process on Monday 25 November. The presentation sets out the indicative details relating to the new children's hospital which is planned for the St James campus. Click here to download PDF 5.52MB  

Joint Commissioning Plan of the Health and Social Care Board and the Public Health Agency: 2010-2011

Legislation enacted on 1 April 2009 created a new Commissioning system with the establishment of a region-wide Health and Social Care Board, including 5 Local Commissioning Groups (LCGs), and a Public Health Agency. In line with Departmental direction and guidance the objectives of the new commissioning arrangements were to: - Approach the future delivery of Health and Social Care from a region-wide perspective focused on outcomes. - Ensure local sensitivity through the creation of five Local Commissioning Groups reflective of their areas. - Give appropriate weight to the public health agenda to ensure that commissioning reflects the drive to reduce health inequalities in our society and works in partnership with others to improve health and wellbeing. In this regard the legislation signalled a new way forward which would first be expressed in a Commissioning Plan for 2010/11 and beyond. This plan outlines how the Health and Social Care Board and the Public Health Agency are approaching that task. It is our aim that this plan is straightforward and written in a manner which will encourage public engagement and understanding. We wish to show clearly how the commissioning task is to be approached and to signal the decisions necessary to ensure the maintenance of a health and social care system in Northern Ireland which responds to the population it serves.

Strategic development review of health board food control laboratories

The Official Food Safety laboratories have a critical role in ensuring food safety and public health for the whole population of the Republic of Ireland. These public health laboratories are made up of 7 microbiological testing laboratories and 3 chemical or Public Analyst’s laboratories. The laboratories are regionally based and offer an accredited (INAB) service to 10 health boards thus spanning the country. The role of the laboratories is to test food for compliance with the relevant legislation and guidelines, identify food-borne hazards and disease outbreaks, provide essential risk assessment information for national and international needs, provide a food testing service for consumers and a water testing service on a national basis. They also participate in dedicated National and EU surveys under the auspices of the Food Safety Authority of Ireland (FSAI). There has been significant investment and development in food-related public health protection in Ireland in recent years. However, there are still a number of issues that have the potential to impact on these laboratories in delivering a fully effective public health service in a cost efficient manner. Building on what has been achieved to date, this strategic review identifies those issues to be addressed in order to ensure (1) a cost effective national co-ordinated food safety laboratory service, (2) that future laboratory service needs are accounted for in the delivery of their Public Health role, and (3) that this Service meets both national and international requirements and standards.