Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

Modeling nitrous oxide emissions from irrigated agriculture : testing DayCent with high-frequency measurements

A unique high temporal frequency dataset from an irrigated cotton-wheat rotation was used to test the agroecosystem model DayCent to simulate daily N2O emissions from sub-tropical vertisols under different irrigation intensities. DayCent was able to simulate the effect of different irrigation intensities on N2O fluxes and yield, although it tended to overestimate seasonal fluxes during the cotton season. DayCent accurately predicted soil moisture dynamics and the timing and magnitude of high fluxes associated with fertilizer additions and irrigation events. At the daily scale we found a good correlation of predicted vs. measured N2O fluxes (r2 = 0.52), confirming that DayCent can be used to test agricultural practices for mitigating N2O emission from irrigated cropping systems. A 25 year scenario analysis indicated that N2O losses from irrigated cotton-wheat rotations on black vertisols in Australia can be substantially reduced by an optimized fertilizer and irrigation management system (i.e. frequent irrigation, avoidance of excessive fertiliser application), while sustaining maximum yield potentials.

Impact of nitrification inhibitor (DMPP) on soil nitrous oxide emissions from an intensive broccoli production system in sub-tropical Australia

Vegetable cropping systems are often characterised by high inputs of nitrogen fertiliser. Elevated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) can be expected as a consequence. In order to mitigate N2O emissions from fertilised agricultural fields, the use of nitrification inhibitors, in combination with ammonium based fertilisers, has been promoted. However, no data is currently available on the use of nitrification inhibitors in sub-tropical vegetable systems. A field experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of the nitrification inhibitor 3,4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate (DMPP) on N2O emissions and yield from broccoli production in sub-tropical Australia. Soil N2O fluxes were monitored continuously (3 h sampling frequency) with fully automated, pneumatically operated measuring chambers linked to a sampling control system and a gas chromatograph. Cumulative N2O emissions over the 5 month observation period amounted to 298 g-N/ha, 324 g-N/ha, 411 g-N/ha and 463 g-N/ha in the conventional fertiliser (CONV), the DMPP treatment (DMPP), the DMMP treatment with a 10% reduced fertiliser rate (DMPP-red) and the zero fertiliser (0N), respectively. The temporal variation of N2O fluxes showed only low emissions over the broccoli cropping phase, but significantly elevated emissions were observed in all treatments following broccoli residues being incorporated into the soil. Overall 70–90% of the total emissions occurred in this 5 weeks fallow phase. There was a significant inhibition effect of DMPP on N2O emissions and soil mineral N content over the broccoli cropping phase where the application of DMPP reduced N2O emissions by 75% compared to the standard practice. However, there was no statistical difference between the treatments during the fallow phase or when the whole season was considered. This study shows that DMPP has the potential to reduce N2O emissions from intensive vegetable systems, but also highlights the importance of post-harvest emissions from incorporated vegetable residues. N2O mitigation strategies in vegetable systems need to target these post-harvest emissions and a better evaluation of the effect of nitrification inhibitors over the fallow phase is needed.

Reducing nitrous oxide emissions while supporting subtropical cereal production in Oxisols

This is the first study to investigate alternative fertilisation strategies to increase cereal production while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the most common soil type in subtropical regions. The results of this research will contribute to define future farming practices to achieve global food security and mitigate climate change. The study established that introducing legumes in cropping systems is the most agronomically viable and environmentally sustainable fertilisation strategy. Importantly, this strategy can be widely adopted in subtropical regions since it is economically accessible, requires little know-how transfer and technology investment, and can be profitable in both low- and high-input cropping systems.

Effect of nitrification inhibitors (DMPP and 3MP+ TZ) on soil nitrous oxide emissions from a sub-tropical vegetable production system in Queensland, Australia

The use of nitrification inhibitors, in combination with ammonium based fertilisers, has been promoted recently as an effective method to reduce nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from fertilised agricultural fields, whilst increasing yield and nitrogen use efficiency. Vegetable cropping systems are often characterised by high inputs of nitrogen fertiliser and consequently elevated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) can be expected. However, to date only limited data is available on the use of nitrification inhibitors in sub-tropical vegetable systems. A field experiment investigated the effect of the nitrification inhibitors (DMPP & 3MP+TZ) on N2O emissions and yield from a typical vegetable production system in sub-tropical Australia. Soil N2O fluxes were monitored continuously over an entire year with a fully automated system. Measurements were taken from three subplots for each treatment within a randomized complete blocks design. There was a significant inhibition effect of DMPP and 3MP+TZ on N2O emissions and soil mineral N content directly following the application of the fertiliser over the vegetable cropping phase. However this mitigation was offset by elevated N2O emissions from the inhibitor treatments over the post-harvest fallow period. Cumulative annual N2O emissions amounted to 1.22 kg-N/ha, 1.16 kg-N/ha, 1.50 kg-N/ha and 0.86 kg-N/ha in the conventional fertiliser (CONV), the DMPP treatment, the 3MP+TZ treatment and the zero fertiliser (0N) respectively. Corresponding fertiliser induced emission factors (EFs) were low with only 0.09 - 0.20% of the total applied fertiliser lost as N2O. There was no significant effect of the nitrification inhibitors on yield compared to the CONV treatment for the three vegetable crops (green beans, broccoli, lettuce) grown over the experimental period. This study highlights that N2O emissions from such vegetable cropping system are primarily controlled by post-harvest emissions following the incorporation of vegetable crop residues into the soil. It also shows that the use of nitrification inhibitors can lead to elevated N2O emissions by storing N in the soil profile that is available to soil microbes during the decomposition of the vegetable residues over the post-harvest phase. Hence the use of nitrification inhibitors in vegetable systems has to be treated carefully and fertiliser rates need to be adjusted to avoid excess soil nitrogen during the postharvest phase.

The effect of row configuration on yield reliability in grain sorghum: II. Modelling the effects of row configuration

In recent years many sorghum producers in the more marginal (<600 mm annual rainfall) cropping areas of Qld and northern NSW have utilised skip row configurations in an attempt to improve yield reliability and reduce sorghum production risk. But will this work in the long run? What are the trade-offs between productivity and risk of crop failure? This paper describes a modelling and simulation approach to study the long-term effects of skip row configurations. Detailed measurements of light interception and water extraction from sorghum crops grown in solid, single and double skip row configurations were collected from three on-farm participatory research trials established in southern Qld and northern NSW. These measurements resulted in changes to the model that accounted for the elliptical water uptake pattern below the crop row and reduced total light interception associated with the leaf area reduction of the skip configuration. Following validation of the model, long-term simulation runs using historical weather data were used to determine the value of skip row sorghum production as a means of maintaining yield reliability in the dryland cropping regions of southern Qld and northern NSW.

Sustaining productivity of a Vertosol at Warra, Queensland, with fertilisers, no-tillage or legumes. 7. Yield, nitrogen and disease-break benefits from lucerne in a two-year lucerne–wheat rotation

Continuous cultivation and cereal cropping of southern Queensland soils previously supporting native vegetation have resulted in reduced soil nitrogen supply, and consequently decreased cereal grain yields and low grain protein. To enhance yields and protein concentrations of wheat, management practices involving N fertiliser application, with no-tillage and stubble retention, grain legumes, and legume leys were evaluated from 1987 to 1998 on a fertility-depleted Vertosol at Warra, southern Queensland. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of lucerne in a 2-year lucerne–wheat rotation for its nitrogen and disease-break benefits to subsequent grain yield and protein content of wheat as compared with continuous wheat cropping. Dry matter production and nitrogen yields of lucerne were closely correlated with the total rainfall for October–September as well as March–September rainfall. Each 100 mm of total rainfall resulted in 0.97 t/ha of dry matter and 26 kg/ha of nitrogen yield. For the March–September rainfall, the corresponding values were 1.26 t/ha of dry matter and 36 kg/ha of nitrogen yield. The latter values were 10% lower than those produced by annual medics during a similar period. Compared with wheat–wheat cropping, significant increases in total soil nitrogen were observed only in 1990, 1992 and 1994 but increases in soil mineralisable nitrogen were observed in most years following lucerne. Similarly, pre-plant nitrate nitrogen in the soil profile following lucerne was higher by 74 kg/ha (9–167 kg N/ha) than that of wheat–wheat without N fertiliser in all years except 1996. Consequently, higher wheat grain protein (7 out of 9 seasons) and grain yield (4 out of 9 seasons) were produced compared with continuous wheat. There was significant depression in grain yield in 2 (1993 and 1995) out of 9 seasons attributed to soil moisture depletion and/or low growing season rainfall. Consequently, the overall responses in yield were lower than those of 50 kg/ha of fertiliser nitrogen applied to wheat–wheat crops, 2-year medic–wheat or chickpea–wheat rotation, although grain protein concentrations were higher following lucerne. The incidence and severity of the soilborne disease, common root rot of wheat caused by Bipolaris sorokiniana, was generally higher in lucerne–wheat than in continuous wheat with no nitrogen fertiliser applications, since its severity was significantly correlated with plant available water at sowing. No significant incidence of crown rot or root lesion nematode was observed. Thus, productivity, which was mainly due to nitrogen accretion in this experiment, can be maintained where short duration lucerne leys are grown in rotations with wheat.

Sustaining productivity of a Vertosol at Warra, Queensland, with fertilisers, no-tillage or legumes. 8. Effect of duration of lucerne ley on soil nitrogen and water, wheat yield and protein.

Soil nitrogen (N) supply in the Vertosols of southern Queensland, Australia has steadily declined as a result of long-term cereal cropping without N fertiliser application or rotations with legumes. Nitrogen-fixing legumes such as lucerne may enhance soil N supply and therefore could be used in lucerne-wheat rotations. However, lucerne leys in this subtropical environment can create a soil moisture deficit, which may persist for a number of seasons. Therefore, we evaluated the effect of varying the duration of a lucerne ley (for up to 4 years) on soil N increase, N supply to wheat, soil water changes, wheat yields and wheat protein on a fertility-depleted Vertosol in a field experiment between 1989 and 1996 at Warra (26degrees 47'S, 150degrees53'E), southern Queensland. The experiment consisted of a wheat-wheat rotation, and 8 treatments of lucerne leys starting in 1989 (phase 1) or 1990 (phase 2) for 1,2,3 or 4 years duration, followed by wheat cropping. Lucerne DM yield and N yield increased with increasing duration of lucerne leys. Soil N increased over time following 2 years of lucerne but there was no further significant increase after 3 or 4 years of lucerne ley. Soil nitrate concentrations increased significantly with all lucerne leys and moved progressively downward in the soil profile from 1992 to 1995. Soil water, especially at 0.9-1.2 m depth, remained significantly lower for the next 3 years after the termination of the 4 year lucerne ley than under continuous wheat. No significant increase in wheat yields was observed from 1992 to 1995, irrespective of the lucerne ley. However, wheat grain protein concentrations were significantly higher under lucerne-wheat than under wheat wheat rotations for 3-5 years. The lucerne yield and soil water and nitrate-N concentrations were satisfactorily simulated with the APSIM model. Although significant N accretion occurred in the soil following lucerne leys, in drier seasons, recharge of the drier soil profile following long duration lucerne occurred after 3 years. Consequently, 3- and 4-year lucerne-wheat rotations resulted in more variable wheat yields than wheat-wheat rotations in this region. The remaining challenge in using lucerne-wheat rotations is balancing the N accretion benefits with plant-available water deficits, which are most likely to occur in the highly variable rainfall conditions of this region.

The influence of planting density on the production of 'Goldfinger' (Musa spp., AAAB) in the subtropics

'Goldfinger', a tetraploid banana produced from the Fundación Hondureña de Investigación Agrícola (FHIA) breeding program, was released to the Australian industry in 1995. It was promoted as an apple-flavoured dessert banana with resistance to Fusarium wilt race 1 and subtropical race 4, as well as resistance to black and yellow Sigatoka (Mycosphaerella fijiensis and M. musicola, respectively). This study was initiated to provide agronomic information to the banana industry, which was under threat from Fusarium wilt, on a new cultivar which could replace 'Williams' (AAA, Cavendish subgroup) or 'Lady Finger' (AAB, Pome subgroup) in those areas affected by Fusarium wilt. Also few studies had reported on the production characteristics of the new tetraploid hybrids, especially from subtropical areas, and therefore two field sites, one a steep-land farm and the other a level, more productive site, were selected for planting density and spatial arrangement treatments. The optimum density in terms of commercial production, taking into account bunch weight, finger size, length of the production cycle, plant height and ease of management, was 1680 plants/ha on the steep-land site where plants were planted in single rows with 2.5 m × 2.5 m spacings. However on the level site a double-row triangular layout with inter-row distances of 4.5 m to allow vehicular access (1724 plants/ha) gave the best results. With this arrangement plants were in an alternate, triangular arrangement along a row and a spacing of 1.5 m between plants at the points of each triangle and between each block of triangles.

Amelioration of soil compaction can take 5 years on a Vertisol under no till in the semi-arid subtropics

Heavy wheel traffic causes soil compaction, which adversely affects crop production and may persist for several years. We applied known compaction forces to entire plots annually for 5 years, and then determined the duration of the adverse effects on the properties of a Vertisol and the performance of crops under no-till dryland cropping with residue retention. For up to 5 years after a final treatment with a 10 Mg axle load on wet soil, soil shear strength at 70-100 mm and cone index at 180-360 mm were significantly (P < 0.05) higher than in a control treatment, and soil water storage and grain yield were lower. We conclude that compaction effects persisted because (1) there were insufficient wet-dry cycles to swell and shrink the entire compacted layer, (2) soil loosening by tillage was absent and (3) there were fewer earthworms in the compacted soil. Compaction of dry soil with 6 Mg had little effect at any time, indicating that by using wheel traffic only when the soil is dry, problems can be avoided. Unfortunately such a restriction is not always possible because sowing, tillage and harvest operations often need to be done when the soil is wet. A more generally applicable solution, which also ensures timely operations, is the permanent separation of wheel zones and crop zones in the field--the practice known as controlled traffic farming. Where a compacted layer already exists, even on a clay soil, management options to hasten repair should be considered, e.g. tillage, deep ripping, sowing a ley pasture or sowing crop species more effective at repairing compacted soil.

Tillage and the environment in sub-tropical Australia-Tradeoffs and challenges

Tillage is defined here in a broad sense, including disturbance of the soil and crop residues, wheel traffic and sowing opportunities. In sub-tropical, semi-arid cropping areas in Australia, tillage systems have evolved from intensively tilled bare fallow systems, with high soil losses, to reduced and no tillage systems. In recent years, the use of controlled traffic has also increased. These conservation tillage systems are successful in reducing water erosion of soil and sediment-bound chemicals. Control of runoff of dissolved nutrients and weakly sorbed chemicals is less certain. Adoption of new practices appears to have been related to practical and economic considerations, and proved to be more profitable after a considerable period of research and development. However there are still challenges. One challenge is to ensure that systems that reduce soil erosion, which may involve greater use of chemicals, do not degrade water quality in streams. Another challenge is to ensure that systems that improve water entry do not increase drainage below the crop root zone, which would increase the risk of salinity. Better understanding of how tillage practices influence soil hydrology, runoff and erosion processes should lead to better tillage systems and enable better management of risks to water quality and soil health. Finally, the need to determine the effectiveness of in-field management practices in achieving stream water quality targets in large, multi-land use catchments will challenge our current knowledge base and the tools available.

Modeling chickpea growth and development: Nitrogen accumulation and use

Quantitative information regarding nitrogen (N) accumulation and its distribution to leaves, stems and grains under varying environmental and growth conditions are limited for chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.). The information is required for the development of crop growth models and also for assessment of the contribution of chickpea to N balances in cropping systems. Accordingly, these processes were quantified in chickpea under different environmental and growth conditions (still without water or N deficit) using four field experiments and 1325 N measurements. N concentration ([N]) in green leaves was 50 mg g-1 up to beginning of seed growth, and then it declined linearly to 30 mg g-1 at the end of seed growth phase. [N] in senesced leaves was 12 mg g-1. Stem [N] decreased from 30 mg g-1 early in the season to 8 mg g-1 in senesced stems at maturity. Pod [N] was constant (35 mg g-1), but grain [N] decreased from 60 mg g-1 early in seed growth to 43 mg g-1 at maturity. Total N accumulation ranged between 9 and 30 g m-2. N accumulation was closely linked to biomass accumulation until maturity. N accumulation efficiency (N accumulation relative to biomass accumulation) was 0.033 g g-1 where total biomass was -2 and during early growth period, but it decreased to 0.0176 g g-1 during the later growth period when total biomass was >218 g m-2. During vegetative growth (up to first-pod), 58% of N was partitioned to leaves and 42% to stems. Depending on growth conditions, 37-72% of leaf N and 12-56% of stem N was remobilized to the grains. The parameter estimates and functions obtained in this study can be used in chickpea simulation models to simulate N accumulation and distribution.

Remote sensing of nitrogen and water stress in wheat

Nitrogen (N) is the largest agricultural input in many Australian cropping systems and applying the right amount of N in the right place at the right physiological stage is a significant challenge for wheat growers. Optimizing N uptake could reduce input costs and minimize potential off-site movement. Since N uptake is dependent on soil and plant water status, ideally, N should be applied only to areas within paddocks with sufficient plant available water. To quantify N and water stress, spectral and thermal crop stress detection methods were explored using hyperspectral, multispectral and thermal remote sensing data collected at a research field site in Victoria, Australia. Wheat was grown over two seasons with two levels of water inputs (rainfall/irrigation) and either four levels (in 2004; 0, 17, 39 and 163 kg/ha) or two levels (in 2005; 0 and 39 kg/ha N) of nitrogen. The Canopy Chlorophyll Content Index (CCCI) and modified Spectral Ratio planar index (mSRpi), two indices designed to measure canopy-level N, were calculated from canopy-level hyperspectral data in 2005. They accounted for 76% and 74% of the variability of crop N status, respectively, just prior to stem elongation (Zadoks 24). The Normalised Difference Red Edge (NDRE) index and CCCI, calculated from airborne multispectral imagery, accounted for 41% and 37% of variability in crop N status, respectively. Greater scatter in the airborne data was attributable to the difference in scale of the ground and aerial measurements (i.e., small area plant samples against whole-plot means from imagery). Nevertheless, the analysis demonstrated that canopy-level theory can be transferred to airborne data, which could ultimately be of more use to growers. Thermal imagery showed that mean plot temperatures of rainfed treatments were 2.7 °C warmer than irrigated treatments (P < 0.001) at full cover. For partially vegetated fields, the two-Dimensional Crop Water Stress Index (2D CWSI) was calculated using the Vegetation Index-Temperature (VIT) trapezoid method to reduce the contribution of soil background to image temperature. Results showed rainfed plots were consistently more stressed than irrigated plots. Future work is needed to improve the ability of the CCCI and VIT methods to detect N and water stress and apply both indices simultaneously at the paddock scale to test whether N can be targeted based on water status. Use of these technologies has significant potential for maximising the spatial and temporal efficiency of N applications for wheat growers. ‘Ground–breaking Stuff’- Proceedings of the 13th Australian Society of Agronomy Conference, 10-14 September 2006, Perth, Western Australia.

Impact of subsoil constraints on wheat yield and gross margin on fine-textured soils of the southern Victorian Mallee

The APSIM-Wheat module was used to investigate our present capacity to simulate wheat yields in a semi-arid region of eastern Australia (the Victorian Mallee), where hostile subsoils associated with salinity, sodicity, and boron toxicity are known to limit grain yield. In this study we tested whether the effects of subsoil constraints on wheat growth and production could be modelled with APSIM-Wheat by assuming that either: (a) root exploration within a particular soil layer was reduced by the presence of toxic concentrations of salts, or (b) soil water uptake from a particular soil layer was reduced by high concentration of salts through osmotic effects. After evaluating the improved predictive capacity of the model we applied it to study the interactions between subsoil constraints and seasonal conditions, and to estimate the economic effect that subsoil constraints have on wheat farming in the Victorian Mallee under different climatic scenarios. Although the soils had high levels of salinity, sodicity, and boron, the observed variability in root abundance at different soil layers was mainly related to soil salinity. We concluded that: (i) whether the effect of subsoil limitations on growth and yield of wheat in the Victorian Mallee is driven by toxic, osmotic, or both effects acting simultaneously still requires further research, (ii) at present, the performance of APSIM-Wheat in the region can be improved either by assuming increased values of lower limit for soil water extraction, or by modifying the pattern of root exploration in the soil pro. le, both as a function of soil salinity. The effect of subsoil constraints on wheat yield and gross margin can be expected to be higher during drier than wetter seasons. In this region the interaction between climate and soil properties makes rainfall information alone, of little use for risk management and farm planning when not integrated with cropping systems models.

Long-term response of corn to limited irrigation and crop rotations

Dwindling water supplies for irrigation are prompting alternative management choices by irrigators. Limited irrigation, where less water is applied than full crop demand, may be a viable approach. Application of limited irrigation to corn was examined in this research. Corn was grown in crop rotations with dryland, limited irrigation, or full irrigation management from 1985 to 1999. Crop rotations included corn following corn (continuous corn), corn following wheat, followed by soybean (wheat-corn-soybean), and corn following soybean (corn-soybean). Full irrigation was managed to meet crop evapotranspiration requirements (ETc). Limited irrigation was managed with a seasonal target of no more than 150 mm applied. Precipitation patterns influenced the outcomes of measured parameters. Dryland yields had the most variation, while fully irrigated yields varied the least. Limited irrigation yields were 80% to 90%> of fully irrigated yields, but the limited irrigation plots received about half the applied water. Grain yields were significantly different among irrigation treatments. Yields were not significantly different among rotation treatments for all years and water treatments. For soil water parameters, more statistical differences were detected among the water management treatments than among the crop rotation treatments. Economic projections of these management practices showed that full irrigation produced the most income if water was available. Limited irrigation increased income significantly from dryland management.