The Provisional Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation/American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism disease activity core set for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis: A prospective validation study

Objective. To validate a core set of outcome measures for the evaluation of response to treatment in patients with juvenile dermatomyositis (DM). Methods. In 2001, a preliminary consensus-derived core set for evaluating response to therapy in juvenile DM was established. In the present study, the core set was validated through an evidence-based, large-scale data collection that led to the enrollment of 294 patients from 36 countries. Consecutive patients with active disease were assessed at baseline and after 6 months. The validation procedures included assessment of feasibility, responsiveness, discriminant and construct ability, concordce in the evaluation of response to therapy between physicians and parents, redundancy, internal consistency, and ability to predict a therapeutic response. Results. The following clinical measures were found to be feasible, and to have good construct validity, discriminative ability, and internal consistency; furthermore, they were not redundant, proved responsive to clinically important changes in disease activity, and were associated strongly with treatment outcome and thus were included in the final core set: 1) physician`s global assessment of disease activity, 2) muscle strength, 3) global disease activity measure, 4) parent`s global assessment of patient`s well-being, 5) functional ability, and 6) health-related quality of life. Conclusion. The members of the Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation, with the endorsement of the American College of Rheumatology and the European Leauge Against Rheumatism, propose a core set of criteria for the evaluation of response of therapy that is scientifically and clinically relevant and statistically validated. The core set will help standardize the conduct and reporting of clinical trials and assist practitioners in deciding whether a child with juvenile DM has responded adequately to therapy.

Fitting mixtures of Kent distributions to aid in joint set identification

When examining a rock mass, joint sets and their orientations can play a significant role with regard to how the rock mass will behave. To identify joint sets present in the rock mass, the orientation of individual fracture planer can be measured on exposed rock faces and the resulting data can be examined for heterogeneity. In this article, the expectation-maximization algorithm is used to lit mixtures of Kent component distributions to the fracture data to aid in the identification of joint sets. An additional uniform component is also included in the model to accommodate the noise present in the data.

Rate and timing of vegetative growth, flowering and fruit development of Persoonia virgata (Proteaceae)

Persoonia virgata R. Br. is harvested from the wild in both its vegetative and flowering stages. There has been no systematic study published on the annual growth cycle and anecdotal reports are conflicting. The growth pattern, flowering and fruit development of P. virgata in its natural habitat was recorded monthly for two consecutive years. The main growth period occurred in late spring-mid-autumn (November-May) when the shrubs were producing little or no fruit. Very few open flowers were observed at the site over the 2 years, with only 6.7 and 12.7% of stems bearing open flowers in January and February 1996, respectively. A second study of flowering on container-grown shrubs showed that individual flowers were open for only 2-5 days, with individual stems taking 3-8.5 weeks to complete flowering. The main fruit growth period occurred from May to September, and in June and July 1996 the total fruit set per stem was 41.6 and 36.1%, respectively. The fruit took at least 6 months to develop during which vegetative growth was minimal. The harvesting of plants in the flowering or fruiting stages removes the annual seed crop, which may reduce regeneration of this obligate seed regenerator and threaten its survival after fire.

Fate of urea nitrogen applied to a banana crop in the wet tropics of Queensland

This paper reports a study in the wet tropics of Queensland on the fate of urea applied to a dry or wet soil surface under banana plants. The transformations of urea were followed in cylindrical microplots (10.3 cm diameter x 23 cm long), a nitrogen (N) balance was conducted in macroplots (3.85 m x 2.0 m) with N-15 labelled urea, and ammonia volatilization was determined with a mass balance micrometeorological method. Most of the urea was hydrolysed within 4 days irrespective of whether the urea was applied onto dry or wet soil. The nitrification rate was slow at the beginning when the soil was dry, but increased greatly after small amounts of rain; in the 9 days after rain 20% of the N applied was converted to nitrate. In the 40 days between urea application and harvesting, the macroplots the banana plants absorbed only 15% of the applied N; at harvest the largest amounts were found in the leaves (3.4%), pseudostem (3.3%) and fruit (2.8%). Only 1% of the applied N was present in the roots. Sixty percent of the applied N was recovered in the soil and 25% was lost from the plant-soil system by either ammonia volatilization, leaching or denitrification. Direct measurements of ammonia volatilization showed that when urea was applied to dry soil, and only small amounts of rain were received, little ammonia was lost (3.2% of applied N). In contrast, when urea was applied onto wet soil, urea hydrolysis occurred immediately, ammonia was volatilized on day zero, and 17.2% of the applied N was lost by the ninth day after that application. In the latter study, although rain fell every day, the extensive canopy of banana plants reduced the rainfall reaching the fertilized area under the bananas to less than half. Thus even though 90 mm of rain fell during the volatilization study, the fertilized area did not receive sufficient water to wash the urea into the soil and prevent ammonia loss. Losses by leaching and denitrification combined amounted to 5% of the applied N.

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Set-valued Markov chains and negative semitrajectories of discretized dynamical systems

Computer simulation of dynamical systems involves a phase space which is the finite set of machine arithmetic. Rounding state values of the continuous system to this grid yields a spatially discrete dynamical system, often with different dynamical behaviour. Discretization of an invertible smooth system gives a system with set-valued negative semitrajectories. As the grid is refined, asymptotic behaviour of the semitrajectories follows probabilistic laws which correspond to a set-valued Markov chain, whose transition probabilities can be explicitly calculated. The results are illustrated for two-dimensional dynamical systems obtained by discretization of fractional linear transformations of the unit disc in the complex plane.

Development of a mungbean (Vigna radiata) RFLP linkage map and its comparison with lablab (Lablab purpureus) revelas a high level of colinearity between the two genomes

A genetic linkage map of mungbean (Vigna radiata, 2n = 2x = 22) consisting of 255 RFLP loci was developed using a recombinant inbred population of 80 individuals. The population was derived from an intersubspecific cross between the cultivated mungbean variety 'Berken' and a wild mungbean genotype 'ACC 41' (V radiata subsp. sublobata). The total length of the map, which comprised 13 linkage groups, spanned 737.9 cM with an average distance between markers of 3.0 cM and a maximum distance between linked markers of 15.4 cM. The mungbean map was compared to a previously published map of lablab (Lablab purpureus, 2n = 2x = 24) using a common set of 65 RFLP probes. In contrast to some other comparative mapping studies among members of the Fabaceae, where a high level of chromosomal rearrangement has been observed, marker order between mungbean and lablab was found to be highly conserved. However, the two genomes have apparently accumulated a large number of duplications/deletions after they diverged.

Establishment of Nilaparvata Iugens Stl in rice crop nurseries: a possible source of outbreaks

We tested the hypothesis that early-planted seedbeds of rioe are mere heavily infested with brown planthopper (BPH) than later seedbeds, and that transplanted plants with lBPH are a source of subsequent population increase and possible outbreaks. The experiments were conducted at CARDI and Takeo province in wet season 2000 and early wet 2 season 200 I. BPH at O. 25. 50, 100, 200 1m were infested onto plants with low and high fertilizer treatments. Rice seeds of varieties moderately and highly susceptible to BPH were sown 3 weeks early, 2 weeks early, at the normal time, and later than normal (5 weeks) and treated with low and high fertilizer rates. At Takeo, the 3< weeks early seedbeds were infested by BPH migration, and both varieties with high fertilizer caught more immigrant insects and subsequently had damaging outbreaks of BPH in the third generation. At CARDl, no seedbeds were infested with immigrant BPH. Seedbeds in areas with continuous cropping of rice have a high risk of BPH attack, Seedlings infested with 200, 100, and 50 BPI[/m2 resulted in death of the plant. Plants with 100 and 200 BPH/m'! were kj[Jed sooner. With 25 BPIVm2 plants were not kllled, but subsequent population increase caused yi eld reduction. Yield loss was high ill higlh fertilizer treated plants. Key words , ,

Pea mania: deranged behaviour in cattle grazing a pea crop (Pisum sativum var arvense)

Hypersensitivity to external stimuli, progressing in some animals to manic behaviour, occurred in a cattle herd that grazed a crop of field peas (Pisum sativum var arvense) in the pre-flowering stage. Haematological and biochemical analyses eliminated hypomagnesaemia and ketosis as diagnoses. Other than two steers euthanased due to injuries sustained during manic episodes, all affected animals survived, recovering over 3 days when moved to alternative pasture. No necropsies were conducted. No microbial pathogens or endophytes were found on or in the plants. A previously reported incident in Victoria in 1987 in cattle grazing peas appeared to be of a similar nature. Environmental factors leading to these incidents were not clearly identified.

Using crop simulation to generate genotype by environment interaction effects for sorghum in water-limited environments

Multi-environment trials (METs) used to evaluate breeding lines vary in the number of years that they sample. We used a cropping systems model to simulate the target population of environments (TPE) for 6 locations over 108 years for 54 'near-isolines' of sorghum in north-eastern Australia. For a single reference genotype, each of 547 trials was clustered into 1 of 3 'drought environment types' (DETs) based on a seasonal water stress index. Within sequential METs of 2 years duration, the frequencies of these drought patterns often differed substantially from those derived for the entire TPE. This was reflected in variation in the mean yield of the reference genotype. For the TPE and for 2-year METs, restricted maximum likelihood methods were used to estimate components of genotypic and genotype by environment variance. These also varied substantially, although not in direct correlation with frequency of occurrence of different DETs over a 2-year period. Combined analysis over different numbers of seasons demonstrated the expected improvement in the correlation between MET estimates of genotype performance and the overall genotype averages as the number of seasons in the MET was increased.