Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.

Assessing the epidemiology and pattern of care of colorectal cancer in Valais, Switzerland

Background: The Valais's cancer registry (RVsT) of the Observatoire valaisan de le santé (OVS) and the department of oncology of Valais's Hospital conducted a study on the epidemiology and pattern of care of colorectal cancer in Valais. Colorectal cancer is the third cause of death by cancer in Switzerland with about 1600 deaths per year. It is the third most frequent cancer for males and the second most frequent for females in Valais. The number of new colorectal cancer cases (average per year) increased between 1989 and 2009 for males as well as for females in Valais. The number of colorectal cancer death cases (average per year) slightly increased between 1989 and 2009 for males as well as for females in Valais. Age-standardized rates of incidence were stable for males and females in Valais and in Switzerland between 1989 and 2009, while age-standardized rates of mortality decreased for males and females in Valais and Switzerland. Results: 774 cases were recorded (59% males). Median age at diagnosis was 70 years old. Most of cancers were invasive (79%) and the main localization was the colon (71%). The most frequent mode of detection was a consultation for non emergency symptoms (75%), but almost 10% of patients consulted in emergency. 82% of patients were treated within 30 days from diagnosis. 90% of the patients were treated by surgery alone or with combined treatment. The first treatment was surgery, including endoscopic resection in 86% of the cases. The treatment was different according to the localization and the stage of the cancer. Survival rate was 95% at 30 days and 79% at one year. The survival was dependent on the stage and the age at diagnosis. Cox model shows an association between mortality and age (better survival for young people) and between mortality and stage (better survival for the lower stages). Methods: RVsT collects information on all cancer cases since 1989 for people registered in the communes of Valais. RVsT has an authorization to collect non anonymized data. All new incident cancers are coded according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-3) and the stages are coded according to the TNM classification. We studied all cases of in situ and invasive colorectal cancers diagnosed between 2006 and 2009 and registered routinely at the RVsT. We checked for data completeness and if necessary sent questionnaires to avoid missing data. A distance of 15 cm has been chosen to delimitate the colon (sigmoid) and the rectal cancers. We made an active follow-up for vital status to have a valid survival analysis. We analyzed the characteristics of the tumors according to age, sex, localization and stage with stata 9 software. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated and Cox model were fitted to analyze survival. Conclusion: The characteristics of patients and tumors and the one year survival were similar to those observed in Switzerland and some European countries. Patterns of care were close to those recommended in guidelines. Routine data recorded in a cancer registry can be used, not only to provide general statistics, but also to help clinicians assess local practices.

The region makes the difference: disparities in management of acute myocardial infaction within Switzerland

Purpose: To assess geographical differences within Switzerland regarding management and revascularization procedures for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods: Swiss hospital discharge database for period 2007-2008. The main inclusion criterion was AMI as a primary discharge diagnosis. AMI revascularization procedures were identified and seven Swiss regions (Leman, Mittelland, Northwest, Zurich, Central, Eastern and Ticino) were analyzed. Results: Data from 25,674 AMI discharges were analyzed. Almost half (53.6%) of them were managed in a single hospital, the values ranging from 63.1% (Leman) to 31.4% (Ticino) see table. Relative to the total number of discharges, the highest Intensive Care Unit admission rate was in Leman (69.7%), the lowest (16.4%) in Ticino (Swiss average: 35.8%). Intracoronary revascularization rates were highest in Leman (51.6%) and lowest (30.8%) in Central Switzerland (Swiss average: 41.4%). Bare (non-drug-eluting) stents use was highest in Leman (33.1%) and lowest (7.0%) in Ticino (Swiss average: 15.8%), while drug eluting stent use was highest (32.8%) in Ticino and lowest (13.9%) in Central Switzerland (Swiss average: 24.0%). Coronary artery bypass graft rates were highest (4.6%) in Ticino and lowest (0.4%) in Eastern Switzerland (Swiss average: 2.6%). Mechanical circulatory assistance rates were highest (4.1%) in Zurich and lowest (0.4%) in Ticino (Swiss average: 1.7%). The differences in revascularization procedures remained after adjusting for age, single or multiple hospital management and gender. Conclusion: In Switzerland, significant geographical differences in management and revascularization procedures for AMI were found.

The gendering of excellence through quality criteria: the case of the SNSF Professorships in Switzerland

The Swiss National Science Foundation Professorships Programme is presented as a scientific programme that aims to promote outstanding young scholars to professorial positions. Academic excellence is presented as the main selection criterion. The emphasis put on the research portfolio and on the age of the candidates means that the beneficiaries of these professorships put forward an image of excellence that is more embedded in data-based sciences than in the humanities and social sciences, thus strengthening the domination of a sector scientific activity essentially occupied by men over the sector that has opened up more widely to women. This paper aims to deconstruct the criteria of academic excellence as they appear in this programme and to show that what seem quality criteria are in fact inspired by a specific androcentric model. These biases tend to undermine the gender equality aims of the programme.

Moving to the development of an HIA methodology : the effects of air pollution in Ticino, Switzerland

This chapter describes the profile of the HIA, provides insight into the process and gives an example of how political decisions may be made on behalf of a concerned population through an HIA approach. [Introduction p. 284]