Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Statistical discrimination of steroid profiles in doping control with support vector machines.

Due to their performance enhancing properties, use of anabolic steroids (e.g. testosterone, nandrolone, etc.) is banned in elite sports. Therefore, doping control laboratories accredited by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) screen among others for these prohibited substances in urine. It is particularly challenging to detect misuse with naturally occurring anabolic steroids such as testosterone (T), which is a popular ergogenic agent in sports and society. To screen for misuse with these compounds, drug testing laboratories monitor the urinary concentrations of endogenous steroid metabolites and their ratios, which constitute the steroid profile and compare them with reference ranges to detect unnaturally high values. However, the interpretation of the steroid profile is difficult due to large inter-individual variances, various confounding factors and different endogenous steroids marketed that influence the steroid profile in various ways. A support vector machine (SVM) algorithm was developed to statistically evaluate urinary steroid profiles composed of an extended range of steroid profile metabolites. This model makes the interpretation of the analytical data in the quest for deviating steroid profiles feasible and shows its versatility towards different kinds of misused endogenous steroids. The SVM model outperforms the current biomarkers with respect to detection sensitivity and accuracy, particularly when it is coupled to individual data as stored in the Athlete Biological Passport.

Verification at the protein level of the PIF4-mediated external coincidence model for the temperature-adaptive photoperiodic control of plant growth in Arabidopsis thaliana.

Plant circadian clock controls a wide variety of physiological and developmental events, which include the short-days (SDs)-specific promotion of the elongation of hypocotyls during de-etiolation and also the elongation of petioles during vegetative growth. In A. thaliana, the PIF4 gene encoding a phytochrome-interacting basic helix-loop-helix (bHLH) transcription factor plays crucial roles in this photoperiodic control of plant growth. According to the proposed external coincidence model, the PIF4 gene is transcribed precociously at the end of night specifically in SDs, under which conditions the protein product is stably accumulated, while PIF4 is expressed exclusively during the daytime in long days (LDs), under which conditions the protein product is degraded by the light-activated phyB and also the residual proteins are inactivated by the DELLA family of proteins. A number of previous reports provided solid evidence to support this coincidence model mainly at the transcriptional level of the PIF 4 and PIF4-traget genes. Nevertheless, the diurnal oscillation profiles of PIF4 proteins, which were postulated to be dependent on photoperiod and ambient temperature, have not yet been demonstrated. Here we present such crucial evidence on PIF4 protein level to further support the external coincidence model underlying the temperature-adaptive photoperiodic control of plant growth in A. thaliana.

Financial Modeling to Support Organizational Control

Tutkimus tarkastelee taloudellisia mallintamismahdollisuuksia metsäteollisuuden liiketoimintayksikössä. Tavoitteena on suunnitella ja luoda taloudellinen malli liiketoimintayksikölle, jonka avulla sen tuloksen analysoiminen ja ennustaminen on mahdollista. Tutkimusta tarkastellaan konstruktiivisen tutkimusmenetelmän avulla. Teoreettinen viitekehys tarkastelee olemassa olevan informaation muotoilemista keskittyen tiedon jalostamisen tarpeisiin, päätöksenteon asettamiin vaatimuksiin sekä mallintamiseen. Toiseksi, teoria esittää informaatiolle asetettavia vaatimuksia organisatorisen ohjauksen näkökulmasta.Empiirinen tieto kerätään osallistuvan havainnoinnin avulla hyödyntäen epävirallisia keskusteluja, tietojärjestelmiä ja laskentatoimen dokumentteja. Tulokset osoittavat, että liikevoiton ennustaminen mallin avulla on vaikeaa, koska taustalla vaikuttavien muuttujien määrä on suuri. Tästä johtuen malli täytyykin rakentaa niin, että se tarkastelee liikevoittoa niin yksityiskohtaisella tasolla kuin mahdollista. Testauksessa mallin tarkkuus osoittautui sitä paremmaksi, mitä tarkemmalla tasolla ennustaminen tapahtui. Lisäksi testaus osoitti, että malli on käyttökelpoinen liiketoiminnan ohjauksessa lyhyellä aikavälillä. Näin se luo myös pohjan pitkän aikavälin ennustamiselle.

Implementing Role Based Access Control into the Enterprise Environment to Support Business and IT Functions

The thesis studies role based access control and its suitability in the enterprise environment. The aim is to research how extensively role based access control can be implemented in the case organization and how it support organization’s business and IT functions. This study points out the enterprise’s needs for access control, factors of access control in the enterprise environment and requirements for implementation and the benefits and challenges it brings along. To find the scope how extensively role based access control can be implemented into the case organization, firstly is examined the actual state of access control. Secondly is defined a rudimentary desired state (how things should be) and thirdly completed it by using the results of the implementation of role based access control application. The study results the role model for case organization unit, and the building blocks and the framework for the organization wide implementation. Ultimate value for organization is delivered by facilitating the normal operations of the organization whilst protecting its information assets.

Evaluation of a revision of the BSPcast decision support system for control of brown spot of pear

Control of brown spot of pear requires fungicide treatments of pear trees during the growing season. Scheduling fungicide sprays with the Brown spot of pear forecasting system (BSPcast) provides significantfungicide savings but does not increase the efficacy of disease control. Modifications in BSPcast wereintroduced in order to increase system performance. The changes consisted of: (1) the use of a daily infectionrisk (Rm≥0.2) instead of the 3-day cumulative risk (CR≥0.4) to guide the fungicide scheduling, and (2) theinclusion of the effect of relative humidity during interrupted wetness periods. Trials were performed during2 years in an experimental pear orchard in Spain. The modifications introduced did not result in increaseddisease control efficacy, compared with the original BSPcast system. In one year, no reduction in the numberof fungicide applications was obtained using the modified BSPcast system in comparison to the original system, but in the second year the number of treatments was reduced from 15 to 13. The original BSPcast model overestimated the daily infection risk in 6.5% of days with wetness periods with low relative humidity during the wetness interruption, and in these cases the modified version was more adequate

Improvement of strategies for the management of fire blight (Erwinia amylovora). Evaluation and optimization of physical and chemical control methods, and use of decision support systems

El foc bacterià és una malaltia que afecta a plantes de la família de la rosàcies, causada pel bacteri Erwinia amylovora. El seu rang d'hostes inclou arbres fruiters, com la perera, la pomera o el codonyer, i plantes ornamentals de gran interès comercial i econòmic. Actualment, la malaltia s'ha dispersat i es troba àmpliament distribuïda en totes les zones de clima temperat del món. A Espanya, on la malaltia no és endèmica, el foc bacterià es va detectar per primer cop al 1995 al nord del país (Euskadi) i posteriorment, han aparegut varis focus en altres localitzacions, que han estat convenientment eradicats. El control del foc bacterià, és molt poc efectiu en plantes afectades per la malaltia, de manera que es basa en mesures encaminades a evitar la dispersió del patogen, i la introducció de la malaltia en regions no endèmiques. En aquest treball, la termoteràpia ha estat avaluada com a mètode d'eradicació d'E. amylovora de material vegetal de propagació asimptomàtic. S'ha demostrat que la termoteràpia és un mètode viable d'eradicar E. amylovora de material de propagació. Gairebé totes les espècies i varietats de rosàcies mantingudes en condicions d'humitat sobrevivien 7 hores a 45 ºC i més de 3 hores a 50 ºC, mentre que més d'1 hora d'exposició a 50 ºC amb calor seca produïa danys en el material vegetal i reduïa la brotació. Tractaments de 60 min a 45 ºC o 30 min a 50 ºC van ser suficients per reduir la població epífita d'E. amylovora a nivells no detectables (5 x 102 ufc g-1 p.f.) en branques de perera. Els derivats dels fosfonats i el benzotiadiazol són efectius en el control del foc bacterià en perera i pomera, tant en condicions de laboratori, com d'hivernacle i camp. Els inductors de defensa de les plantes redueixen els nivells de malaltia fins al 40-60%. Els intervals de temps mínims per aconseguir el millor control de la malaltia van ser 5 dies pel fosetil-Al, i 7 dies per l'etefon i el benzotiadiazol, i les dosis òptimes pel fosetil-Al i el benzotiadiazol van ser 3.72 g HPO32- L-1 i 150 mg i.a. L-1, respectivament. Es millora l'eficàcia del fosetil-Al i del benzotiadiazol en el control del foc bacterià, quan es combinen amb els antibiòtics a la meitat de la dosi d'aquests últims. Tot i que l'estratègia de barrejar productes és més pràctica i fàcil de dur a terme a camp, que l'estratègia de combinar productes, el millor nivell de control de la malaltia s'aconsegueix amb l'estratègia de combinar productes. Es va analitzar a nivell histològic i ultrastructural l'efecte del benzotiadiazol i dels fosfonats en la interacció Erwinia amylovora-perera. Ni el benzotiadiazol, ni el fosetil-Al, ni l'etefon van induir canvis estructurals en els teixits de perera 7 dies després de la seva aplicació. No obstant, després de la inoculació d'E. amylovora es va observar en plantes tractades amb fosetil-Al i etefon una desorganització estructural cel·lular, mentre que en les plantes tractades amb benzotiadiazol aquestes alteracions tissulars van ser retardades. S'han avaluat dos models (Maryblyt, Cougarblight) en un camp a Espanya afectat per la malaltia, per determinar la precisió de les prediccions. Es van utilitzar dos models per elaborar el mapa de risc, el BRS-Powell combinat i el BIS95 modificat. Els resultats van mostrar dos zones amb elevat i baix risc de la malaltia. Maryblyt i Cougarblight són dos models de fàcil ús, tot i que la seva implementació en programes de maneig de la malaltia requereix que siguin avaluats i validats per un període de temps més llarg i en àrees on la malaltia hi estigui present.

An economic decision support tool for simulating paratuberculosis control strategies in a UK suckler beef herd

A dynamic, deterministic, economic simulation model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of controlling Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in a suckler beef herd. The model is intended as a demonstration tool for veterinarians to use with farmers. The model design process involved user consultation and participation and the model is freely accessible on a dedicated website. The 'user-friendly' model interface allows the input of key assumptions and farm specific parameters enabling model simulations to be tailored to individual farm circumstances. The model simulates the effect of Johne's disease and various measures for its control in terms of herd prevalence and the shedding states of animals within the herd, the financial costs of the disease and of any control measures and the likely benefits of control of Johne's disease for the beef suckler herd over a 10-year period. The model thus helps to make more transparent the 'hidden costs' of Johne's in a herd and the likely benefits to be gained from controlling the disease. The control strategies considered within the model are 'no control', 'testing and culling of diagnosed animals', 'improving management measures' or a dual strategy of 'testing and culling in association with improving management measures'. An example 'run' of the model shows that the strategy 'improving management measures', which reduces infection routes during the early stages, results in a marked fall in herd prevalence and total costs. Testing and culling does little to reduce prevalence and does not reduce total costs over the 10-year period.

A conceptual model for group support systems in local councils

This paper proposes a conceptual model of a context-aware group support system (GSS) to assist local council employees to perform collaborative tasks in conjunction with inter- and intra-organisational stakeholders. Most discussions about e-government focus on the use of ICT to improve the relationship between government and citizen, not on the relationship between government and employees. This paper seeks to expose the unique culture of UK local councils and to show how a GSS could support local government employer and employee needs.

Modelling of control options for an outbreak of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in egg production: a decision support tool

Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) is a bacterium that causes respiratory disease in chickens, leading to reduced egg production. A dynamic simulation model was developed that can be used to assess the costs and benefits of control using antimicrobials or vaccination in caged or free range systems. The intended users are veterinarians and egg producers. A user interface is provided for input of flock specific parameters. The economic consequence of an MG outbreak is expressed as a reduction in expected egg output. The model predicts that either vaccination or microbial treatment can approximately halve potential losses from MG in some circumstances. Sensitivity analysis is used to test assumptions about infection rate and timing of an outbreak. Feedback from veterinarians points to the value of the model as a discussion tool with producers.

Metastatic melanoma positively influences pregnancy outcome in a mouse model: could a deadly tumor support embryo life?

The incidence of melanoma is increasing worldwide. It is one of the leading cancers in pregnancy and the most common malignancy to metastasize to placenta and fetus. There are no publications about experimental models of melanoma and pregnancy. We propose a new experimental murine model to study the effects of melanoma on pregnancy and its metastatic process. We tested several doses of melanoma cells until we arrived at the optimal dose, which produced tumor growth and allowed animal survival to the end of pregnancy. Two control groups were used: control (C) and stress control (SC) and three different routes of inoculation: intravenous (IV), intraperitoneal (IP) and subcutaneous (SC). All the fetuses and placentas were examined macroscopically and microscopically. The results suggest that melanoma is a risk factor for intrauterine growth restriction but does not affect placental weight. When inoculated by the SC route, the tumor grew only in the site of implantation. The IP route produced peritoneal tumoral growth and also ovarian and uterine metastases in 60% of the cases. The IV route produced pulmonary tumors. No placental or fetal metastases were obtained, regardless of the inoculation route. The injection of melanoma cells by any route did not increase the rate of fetal resorptions. Surprisingly, animals in the IV groups had no resorptions and a significantly higher number of fetuses. This finding may indicate that tumoral factors released in the host organism to favor tumor survival may also have a pro-gestational action and consequently improve the reproductive performance of these animals.

Application of passive control to energy harvester efficiency using a nonideal portal frame structural support system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

THE EFFECT OF PERSON-ENVIRONMENT FIT ON THE PSYCHOLOGICAL WELL-BEING OF PSYCHIATRIC AIDES WORKING IN A STATE HOSPITAL (COPING RESOURCES, SOCIAL SUPPORT, OCCUPATIONAL STRESS, LOCUS-OF-CONTROL)

This study addressed two purposes: (1) to determine the effect of person-environment fit on the psychological well-being of psychiatric aides and (2) to determine what role the coping resources of social support and control have on the above relationship. Two hundred and ten psychiatric aides working in a state hospital in Texas responded to a questionnaire pertaining to these issues.^ Person-environment fit, as a measure of occupational stress, was assessed through a modified version of the Work Environment Scale (WES). The WES subscales used in this study were: involvement, autonomy, job pressure, job clarity, and physical comfort. Psychological well-being was measured with the General Well-Being Schedule which was developed by the National Center for Health Statistics. Co-worker and supervisor support were measured through the WES and finally, control was assessed through Rotter's Locus of Control Scale.^ The results of this study were as follows: (1) all person-environment (p-e) dimensions appeared to have linear relationships with psychological well-being; (2) the p-e fit - well-being relationship did not appear to be confounded by demographic factors; (3) all p-e fit dimensions were significantly related to well-being except for autonomy; (4) p-e fit was more strongly related to well-being than the environmental measure alone; (5) supervisor support and non-work related support were found to have additive effects on the relationship between p-e fit and well-being, however no interaction or buffering effects were observed; (6) locus of control was found to have additive effects in the prediction of well-being and showed interactive effects with work pressure, involvement and physical comfort; and (7) the testing of the overall study model which included many of the components mentioned above yielded an R('2) = .27.^ Implications of these findings are discussed, future research suggested and applications proposed. ^

A Structure of Problem Solving Methods for Real Time Decision Support in Traffic Control

This article describes a knowledge-based application in the domain of road traffic management that we have developed following a knowledge modeling approach and the notion of problem-solving method. The article presents first a domain-independent model for real-time decision support as a structured collection of problem solving methods. Then, it is described how this general model is used to develop an operational version for the domain of traffic management. For this purpose, a particular knowledge modeling tool, called KSM (Knowledge Structure Manager), was applied. Finally, the article shows an application developed for a traffic network of the city of Madrid and it is compared with a second application developed for a different traffic area of the city of Barcelona.

A model of school managerial control : the systematic analysis of managerial behaviors, processes, and indicators

The theoretical construct of control has been defined as necessary (Etzioni, 1965), ubiquitous (Vickers, 1967), and on-going (E. Langer, 1983). Empirical measures, however, have not adequately given meaning to this potent construct, especially within complex organizations such as schools. Four stages of theory-development and empirical testing of school building managerial control using principals and teachers working within the nation's fourth largest district are presented in this dissertation as follows: (1) a review and synthesis of social science theories of control across the literatures of organizational theory, political science, sociology, psychology, and philosophy; (2) a systematic analysis of school managerial activities performed at the building level within the context of curricular and instructional tasks; (3) the development of a survey questionnaire to measure school building managerial control; and (4) initial tests of construct validity including inter-item reliability statistics, principal components analyses, and multivariate tests of significance. The social science synthesis provided support of four managerial control processes: standards, information, assessment, and incentives. The systematic analysis of school managerial activities led to further categorization between structural frequency of behaviors and discretionary qualities of behaviors across each of the control processes and the curricular and instructional tasks. Teacher survey responses (N=486) reported a significant difference between these two dimensions of control, structural frequency and discretionary qualities, for standards, information, and assessments, but not for incentives. The descriptive model of school managerial control suggests that (1) teachers perceive structural and discretionary managerial behaviors under information and incentives more clearly than activities representing standards or assessments, (2) standards are primarily structural while assessments are primarily qualitative, (3) teacher satisfaction is most closely related to the equitable distribution of incentives, (4) each of the structural managerial behaviors has a qualitative effect on teachers, and that (5) certain qualities of managerial behaviors are perceived by teachers as distinctly discretionary, apart from school structure. The variables of teacher tenure and school effectiveness reported significant effects on school managerial control processes, while instructional levels (elementary, junior, and senior) and individual school differences were not found to be significant for the construct of school managerial control.