An observing system simulation experiment for climate monitoring with GNSS radio occulation data: setup and testbed study

The long-term stability, high accuracy, all-weather capability, high vertical resolution, and global coverage of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) suggests it as a promising tool for global monitoring of atmospheric temperature change. With the aim to investigate and quantify how well a GNSS RO observing system is able to detect climate trends, we are currently performing an (climate) observing system simulation experiment over the 25-year period 2001 to 2025, which involves quasi-realistic modeling of the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. We carried out two climate simulations with the general circulation model MAECHAM5 (Middle Atmosphere European Centre/Hamburg Model Version 5) of the MPI-M Hamburg, covering the period 2001–2025: One control run with natural variability only and one run also including anthropogenic forcings due to greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, and tropospheric ozone. On the basis of this, we perform quasi-realistic simulations of RO observables for a small GNSS receiver constellation (six satellites), state-of-the-art data processing for atmospheric profiles retrieval, and a statistical analysis of temperature trends in both the “observed” climatology and the “true” climatology. Here we describe the setup of the experiment and results from a test bed study conducted to obtain a basic set of realistic estimates of observational errors (instrument- and retrieval processing-related errors) and sampling errors (due to spatial-temporal undersampling). The test bed results, obtained for a typical summer season and compared to the climatic 2001–2025 trends from the MAECHAM5 simulation including anthropogenic forcing, were found encouraging for performing the full 25-year experiment. They indicated that observational and sampling errors (both contributing about 0.2 K) are consistent with recent estimates of these errors from real RO data and that they should be sufficiently small for monitoring expected temperature trends in the global atmosphere over the next 10 to 20 years in most regions of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Inspection of the MAECHAM5 trends in different RO-accessible atmospheric parameters (microwave refractivity and pressure/geopotential height in addition to temperature) indicates complementary climate change sensitivity in different regions of the UTLS so that optimized climate monitoring shall combine information from all climatic key variables retrievable from GNSS RO data.

Results from the Covered Catchment Experiment at Gårdsjön, Sweden, after ten years of clean precipitation treatment

The Covered Catchment Experiment at Gordsjon is a large scale forest ecosystem manipulation, where acid precipitation was intercepted by a 7000 m(2) plastic roof and replaced by 'clean precipitation' sprinkled below the roof for ten years between 1991 and 2001. The treatment resulted in a strong positive response of runoff quality. The runoff sulphate, inorganic aluminium and base cations decreased, while there was a strong increase in runoff ANC and a moderate increase in pH. The runoff continued to improve over the whole duration of the experiment. The achieved quality was, however, after ten years still considerably worse than estimated pre-industrial runoff at the site. Stable isotopes of sulphur were analysed to study the soil sulphur cycling. At the initial years of the experiment, the desorption of SO4 from the mineral soil appeared to control the runoff SO4 concentration. However, as the experiment proceeded, there was growing evidence that net mineralisation of soil organic sulphur in the humus layer was an additional source of SO4 in runoff. This might provide a challenge to current acidification models. The experiment convincingly demonstrated on a catchment scale, that reduction in acid deposition causes an immediate improvement of surface water quality even at heavily acidified sites. The improvement of the runoff appeared to be largely a result of cation exchange processes in the soil due to decreasing concentrations of the soil solution, while any potential change in soil base saturation seemed to be less important for the runoff chemistry over the short time period of one decade. These findings should be considered when interpreting and extrapolating regional trends in surface water chemistry to the terrestrial parts of ecosystems.

The effects of different forms of advice on the control of a simulated complex system

Three experiments examine the effect of different forms of computer-generated advice on concurrent and subsequent performance of individuals controlling a simulated intensive-care task. Experiment 1 investigates the effect of optional and compulsory advice and shows that both result in an improvement in subjects' performance while receiving the advice, and also in an improvement in subsequent unaided performance. However, although the advice compliance displayed by the optional advice group shows a strong correlation with subsequent unaided performance, compulsory advice has no extra benefit over the optional use of advice. Experiment 2 examines the effect of providing users with on-line explanations of the advice, as well as providing less specific advice. The results show that both groups perform at the same level on the task as the advice groups from Experiment 1, although subjects receiving explanations scored significantly higher on a written post-task questionnaire. Experiment 3 investigates in more detail the relationship between advice compliance and performance. The results reveal a complex relationship between natural ability on the task and the following of advice, in that people who use the advice more tend to perform either better or worse than the more moderate users. The theoretical and practical implications of these experiments are discussed.

Object displays and control of dynamic systems

Recent work has suggested that for some tasks, graphical displays which visually integrate information from more than one source offer an advantage over more traditional displays which present the same information in a separated format. Three experiments are described which investigate this claim using a task which requires subjects to control a dynamic system. In the first experiment, the integrated display is compared to two separated displays, one an animated mimic diagram, the other an alphanumeric display. The integrated display is shown to support better performance in a control task, but experiment 2 shows that part of this advantage may be due to its analogue nature. Experiment 3 considers performance on a fault detection task, and shows no difference between the integrated and separated displays. The paper concludes that previous claims made for integrated displays may not generalize from monitoring to control tasks.

The combined effect of the application of a biocontrol agent Paecilomyces lilacinus, with various practices for the control of root-knot nematodes

The effectiveness of a formulated product containing spores of the naturally occurring fungus Paecilomyces lilacinus, strain 251, was evaluated against root-knot nematodes in pot and greenhouse experiments. Decrease of second-stage juveniles hatching from eggs was recorded by using the bio-nematicide at a dose of 4 kg ha(-1), while a further decrease was recorded by doubling the dose. However, the mortality rate decreased by increasing the inoculum level. Application of P. lilacinus and Bacillus firmus, singly or together in pot experiments, provided effective control of second-stage juveniles, eggs or egg masses of root-knot nematodes. In a greenhouse experiment, the bio-nematicide was evaluated for its potential to control root-knot nematodes either as a stand-alone method or in combination with soil solarization. Soil was solarized for 15 d and the bio-nematicide was applied just after the removal of the plastic sheet. Soil solarization for 15 d either alone or combined with the use of P. lilacinus did not provide satisfactory control of root-knot nematodes. The use of oxamyl, which was applied 2 weeks before and during transplanting, gave results similar to the commercial product containing P. lilacinus but superior to soil solarization. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The value of badger populations and control of tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales: A note

This note reports on the results of a choice experiment survey of 400 people in England and Wales, conducted to estimate the value that society places on changes to the size of the badger population. The study was undertaken in the context of the possible need to reduce the badger population by culling to help control bovine tuberculosis in cattle. The study found that people were concerned about the problem of bovine tuberculosis in cattle, which was reflected in their willingness to pay to control the disease, and gave a relatively low value to changes in the size of the badger population (within limits). However, people did not like the idea of a policy that intentionally killed large numbers of badgers and had a relatively very high willingness to pay not to have such a policy.

Antifungal activity of Bacillus subtilis filtrate to control Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. lentis, the causal organism of lentil vascular wilt

In dual cultures, the supernatant filtrate of the biological control agent Bacillus subtilis was evaluated against (Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. lentis) the causal organism of lentil vascular wilt. The antagonistic activity was evaluated as percent reduction of fungal growth (certainly due, in part, to the antifungal metabolites produced by the antagonistic bacterium). The in-vitro experiments showed that B. subtilis filtrate, whether solid or liquid media, had a strong inhibiting activity on the spore germination and mycelial growth of F. oxysporum f. sp. lentis. In a glasshouse experiment, soil was drenched with B. subtilis filtrate at 30 ml/kg (vol/wt) around seedlings of a susceptible lentil line (ILL 4605). In this treatment there was only 31% mortality compared with 100% kill of plants in the control treatment (P≤0.05).

Effects of a non-chemical nematicide combined with soil solarization for the control of root-knot nematodes

The effectiveness of a formulated bio-nematicide product containing lyophilized bacteria spores of Bacillus firmus was evaluated against root-knot nematodes (RKN) in greenhouse and field experiments. A decrease of second stage juveniles hatching from eggs was recorded by using the bio-nematicide at a dose of 0.9 g kg(-1) of soil while further a decrease was recorded by doubling the dose. However, the mortality rate decreased as the inoculurn level increased. Exposure of either second stage juveniles or egg masses to temperatures of 35-40 degrees C for 1-4 weeks had a marked effect on their survival. In a field experiment, the bio-nematicide was evaluated for its potential to control RKN either as a stand-alone method or in combination with soil solarization. The latter was tested for 15-30 days and the bionematicide was applied just before soil coverage with the plastic sheet or just after its removal. Soil solarization either for 15-30 days provided satisfactory control of RKN. The combination of soil solarization with the bio-nematicide improved nematode control and gave results similar to the chemical treatment. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The control of root-knot nematodes (Meloidogyne spp.) by Pseudomonas oryzihabitans and its immunological detection on tomato roots

Pseudomonas oryzihabitans, a bacterium associated with the entomopathogenic nematode Steinernema abbasi, was evaluated for its potential to colonise roots and thereby control a field population of root-knot nematodes. Immunological techniques were developed to detect root colonisation of P. oryzihabitans on tomato roots using a specific polyclonal antibody raised against vegetative bacterial cells. In vitro, bacterial cell filtrates were also shown significantly to inhibit juveniles hatching. In a glasshouse pot experiment, there were 22 and 82% fewer females in roots of plants treated with suspensions containing 10(3) and 10(6) cells ml(-1) of P oryzihabitans, respectively. In addition, there were significantly fewer egg masses produced; however, the numbers of eggs per egg mass did not differ significantly. The relationship between root colonisation and nematode control is discussed.

Combining competition from Lolium perenne and an insect-fungus combination to control Rumex obtusifolius seedlings

Although adult Rumex obtusifolius are problematic weeds, their seedlings are poor competitors against Lolium perenne, particularly in established swards. We investigated the possibility of using this weakness to augment control of R. obtusifolius seedlings with combinations of Gastrophysa viridula (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) and the rust fungus Uromyces rumicis. Rumex obtusifolius seedlings were grown in competition with L. perenne sown at different rates and times after R. obtusifolius: they competed successfully with L. perenne when sown 21 days before the grass. Sowing both species at the same time resulted in a dominant grass sward, with R. obtusifolius becoming dominant when sown 42 days prior to L. perenne. Grass sowing rate had no effect on R. obtusifolius growth or biomass. A second experiment investigated how competition from L. perenne sown 21 days after R. obtusifolius combined with damage from G. viridula and/or U. rumicis (applied at either the 3-4- or 10-13-leaf stage, or at both stages) affected the growth and final biomass of R. obtusifolius. Beetle grazing at the latter leaf stage was the only treatment that reduced R. obtusifolius biomass, although rust infection at the earlier application led to an increase in shoot and root weight. The results are discussed in terms of the potential for use of these agents in the field.

Cultural techniques for improvement in biocontrol potential of fungal antagonists for biological control of Armillaria root rot of strawberry plants under glasshouse conditions

Several in vitro and in vivo experiments were conducted to develop an effective technique for culturing potential fungal antagonists (isolates of Trichoderma harzianum, Dactylium dendroides, Chaetomium olivaceum and one unidentified fungus) selected for activity against Armillaria mellea. The antagonists were inoculated onto (1) live spawn of the oyster mu shroom (Pleurotus ostreatus), (2) extra-moistened or sucrose-enriched mushroom composts containing living or autoclaved mycelia of P. ostreatus or Agaricus bisporus (button mushroom), (3) pasteurized compost with or without A. bisporus mycelium, wheat bran, wheat germ and (4) spent mushroom composts with living mycelia of A. bisporus, P. ostreatus or Lentinus edodes (the Shiitake mushroom). In one experiment, a representative antagonist (isolate Th2 of T. harzianum) was grown together with the A. bisporus mycelium, while in another one, the antagonist was first grown on wheat germ or wheat bran and then on mushroom compost with living mycelium of A. bisporus. Some of the carrier substrates were then added to the roots of potted strawberry plants in the glasshouse to evaluate their effectiveness against the disease. The antagonists failed to grow on the spawn of P. ostreatus even after reinoculations and prolonged incubation. Providing extra moisture or sucrose enrichment also did not improve the growth of Th2 on mushroom composts in the presence of living mycelia of A. bisporus or P. ostreatus. The antagonist, however, grew rapidly and extensively on mushroom compost with autoclaved mycelia, and also on wheat germ and wheat bran. Colonization of the substrates by the antagonist was positively correlated with its effectiveness in the glasshouse studies. Whereas only 33.3% of the inoculated control plants survived in one experiment monitored for 560 days, 100% survival was achieved when Th2 was applied on wheat germ or wheat bran. Growth of the antagonist alone on pasteurized or sterilized compost (without A. bisporus mycelia) and simultaneous growth of the antagonist and mushroom on pasteurized compost did not improve survival over the inoculated controls, but growth over mushroom compost with the living mycelium resulted in 50% survival rate. C. olivaceum isolate Co was the most effective, resulting in overall survival rate of 83.3% compared with only 8.3% for the inoculated and 100% for the uninoculated (healthy) controls. This antagonist gave the highest survival rate of 100% on spent mushroom compost with L. edodes. T harzianum isolate Th23, with 75% survival rate, was the most effective on spent mushroom compost with P. ostreatus, while D. dendroides isolate SP resulted in equal survival rates of 50% on all the three mushroom composts.

Inhibitory control in memory: evidence for negative priming in free recall

Cognitive control mechanisms—such as inhibition—decrease the likelihood that goal-directed activity is ceded to irrelevant events. Here, we use the action of auditory distraction to show how retrieval from episodic long-term memory is affected by competitor inhibition. Typically, a sequence of to-be-ignored spoken distracters drawn from the same semantic category as a list of visually-presented to-be-recalled items impairs free recall performance. In line with competitor inhibition theory (Anderson, 2003), free recall was worse for items on a probe trial if they were a repeat of distracter items presented during the previous, prime, trial (Experiment 1). This effect was only produced when the distracters were dominant members of the same category as the to-be-recalled items on the prime. For prime trials in which distracters were low-dominant members of the to-be-remembered item category or were unrelated to that category—and hence not strong competitors for retrieval—positive priming was found (Experiments 2 & 3). These results are discussed in terms of inhibitory approaches to negative priming and memory retrieval.

Does training improve understanding of core concepts in cognitive behaviour therapy by people with intellectual disabilities? A randomized experiment

Background. People with intellectual disabilities (ID) experience similar or even higher rates of mental health problems than the general population and there is a need to develop appropriate treatments. Cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) is effective for a wide range of disorders in the general population. However, there is some evidence that people with ID may lack the cognitive skills needed to take part in CBT. Aims. To test if people with ID can learn skills required for CBT, specifically the ability to distinguish between thoughts, feelings, and behaviours and to link thoughts and feelings (cognitive mediation). Method. A randomized independent groups design was used to examine the effect of training in CBT on two tasks measuring CBT skills. Thirty-four adults with ID were randomly allocated to the experimental condition ðN ¼ 18Þ or to the control condition ðN ¼ 16Þ. CBT skills were assessed blind at baseline and after the intervention. Results. The training led to significant improvements in participants’ ability to link thoughts and feelings, and this skill was generalized to new material. There was no effect of training on participants’ ability to distinguish amongst thoughts, feelings, and behaviours. People with ID can, therefore, learn some skills required for CBT. This implies that preparatory training for CBT might be useful for people with ID. The results might be applicable to other groups who find aspects of CBT difficult.

Intermittently-visual tracking experiments reveal the roles of error-correction and predictive mechanisms in the human visual-motor control system

Prediction mechanism is necessary for human visual motion to compensate a delay of sensory-motor system. In a previous study, “proactive control” was discussed as one example of predictive function of human beings, in which motion of hands preceded the virtual moving target in visual tracking experiments. To study the roles of the positional-error correction mechanism and the prediction mechanism, we carried out an intermittently-visual tracking experiment where a circular orbit is segmented into the target-visible regions and the target-invisible regions. Main results found in this research were following. A rhythmic component appeared in the tracer velocity when the target velocity was relatively high. The period of the rhythm in the brain obtained from environmental stimuli is shortened more than 10%. The shortening of the period of rhythm in the brain accelerates the hand motion as soon as the visual information is cut-off, and causes the precedence of hand motion to the target motion. Although the precedence of the hand in the blind region is reset by the environmental information when the target enters the visible region, the hand motion precedes the target in average when the predictive mechanism dominates the error-corrective mechanism.

Control without deception

Lying to participants offers an experimenter the enticing prospect of making “others' behaviour” a controlled variable, but is eschewed by experimental economists because it may pollute the pool of subjects. This paper proposes and implements a new experimental design, the Conditional Information Lottery, which offers all the benefits of deception without actually deceiving anyone. The design should be suitable for most economics experiments, and works by a modification of an already standard device, the Random Lottery incentive system. The deceptive scenarios of designs which use deceit are replaced with fictitious scenarios, each of which, from a subject's viewpoint, has a chance of being true. The design is implemented in a sequential play public good experiment prompted by Weimann's (1994) result, from a deceptive design, that subjects are more sensitive to freeriding than cooperation on the part of others. The experiment provides similar results to Weimann's, in that subjects are at least as cooperative when uninformed about others' behaviour as they are if reacting to high contributions. No deception is used and the data cohere well both internally and with other public goods experiments. In addition, simultaneous play is found to be more efficient than sequential play, and subjects contribute less at the end of a sequence than at the start. The results suggest pronounced elements of overconfidence, egoism and (biased) reciprocity in behaviour, which may explain decay in contributions in repeated play designs. The experiment shows there is a workable alternative to deception.