Application of discriminant function analysis and change-point problem in dating volcanic ashes

The application of Discriminant function analysis (DFA) is not a new idea in the studyof tephrochrology. In this paper, DFA is applied to compositional datasets of twodifferent types of tephras from Mountain Ruapehu in New Zealand and MountainRainier in USA. The canonical variables from the analysis are further investigated witha statistical methodology of change-point problems in order to gain a betterunderstanding of the change in compositional pattern over time. Finally, a special caseof segmented regression has been proposed to model both the time of change and thechange in pattern. This model can be used to estimate the age for the unknown tephrasusing Bayesian statistical calibration

Stages of change, barriers, benefits, and preferences for exercise in RA patients: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES: To determine the distribution of exercise stages of change in a rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cohort, and to examine patients' perceptions of exercise benefits, barriers, and their preferences for exercise. METHODS: One hundred and twenty RA patients who attended the Rheumatology Unit of a University Hospital were asked to participate in the study. Those who agreed were administered a questionnaire to determine their exercise stage of change, their perceived benefits and barriers to exercise, and their preferences for various features of exercise. RESULTS: Eighty-nine (74%) patients were finally included in the analyses. Their mean age was 58.4 years, mean RA duration 10.1 years, and mean disease activity score 2.8. The distribution of exercise stages of change was as follows: precontemplation (n = 30, 34%), contemplation (n = 11, 13%), preparation (n = 5, 6%), action (n = 2, 2%), and maintenance (n = 39, 45%). Compared to patients in the maintenance stage of change, precontemplators exhibited different demographic and functional characteristics and reported less exercise benefits and more barriers to exercise. Most participants preferred exercising alone (40%), at home (29%), at a moderate intensity (64%), with advice provided by a rheumatologist (34%) or a specialist in exercise and RA (34%). Walking was by far the preferred type of exercise, in both the summer (86%) and the winter (51%). CONCLUSIONS: Our cohort of patients with RA was essentially distributed across the precontemplation and maintenance exercise stages of change. These subgroups of patients exhibit psychological and functional differences that make their needs different in terms of exercise counselling.

Rates of cultural change and patterns of cultural accumulation in stochastic models of social transmission.

Cultural variation in a population is affected by the rate of occurrence of cultural innovations, whether such innovations are preferred or eschewed, how they are transmitted between individuals in the population, and the size of the population. An innovation, such as a modification in an attribute of a handaxe, may be lost or may become a property of all handaxes, which we call "fixation of the innovation." Alternatively, several innovations may attain appreciable frequencies, in which case properties of the frequency distribution-for example, of handaxe measurements-is important. Here we apply the Moran model from the stochastic theory of population genetics to study the evolution of cultural innovations. We obtain the probability that an initially rare innovation becomes fixed, and the expected time this takes. When variation in cultural traits is due to recurrent innovation, copy error, and sampling from generation to generation, we describe properties of this variation, such as the level of heterogeneity expected in the population. For all of these, we determine the effect of the mode of social transmission: conformist, where there is a tendency for each naïve newborn to copy the most popular variant; pro-novelty bias, where the newborn prefers a specific variant if it exists among those it samples; one-to-many transmission, where the variant one individual carries is copied by all newborns while that individual remains alive. We compare our findings with those predicted by prevailing theories for rates of cultural change and the distribution of cultural variation.

The impact of pre- and post-natal contexts on immunity, glucocorticoids and oxidative stress resistance in wild and domesticated grey partridges

Genetic background, prenatal and post-natal early-life conditions influence the development of interconnected physiological systems and thereby shape the phenotype. Certain combinations of genotypes and pre- and post-natal conditions may provide higher fitness in a specific environmental context. Here, we investigated how grey partridges Perdix perdix of two strains (wild and domesticated) cope physiologically with pre- and post-natal predictable vs. unpredictable food supply. Food unpredictability occurs frequently in wild environments and requires physiological and behavioural adjustments. Well-orchestrated and efficient physiological systems are presumably more vital in a wild environment as compared to captivity. We thus predicted that wild-strain grey partridges have a stronger immunity, glucocorticoid (GC) stress response and oxidative stress resistance (OSR) than domesticated birds, which have undergone adaptations to captivity. We also predicted that wild-strain birds react more strongly to environmental stimuli and, when faced with harsh prenatal conditions, are better able to prepare their offspring for similarly poor post-natal conditions than birds of domesticated origin. We found that wild-strain offspring were physiologically better prepared for stressful situations as compared to the domesticated strain. They had a high GC stress response and a high OSR when kept under predictable food supply. Wild-strain parents reacted to prenatal unpredictable food supply by lowering their offspring's GC stress response, which potentially lowered GC-induced oxidative pressure. No such pattern was evident in the domesticated birds. Irrespective of strain and prenatal feeding scheme, post-natal unpredictable food supply boosted immune indices, and GC stress response was negatively related to antibody response in females and to mitochondrial superoxide production. Wild-strain grey partridge showed fitness-relevant physiological advantages and appeared to prepare their offspring for the prospective environment. Negative relationships between GC stress response, immunity and oxidative indices imply a pivotal role of an organism's oxidative balance and support the importance of considering multiple physiological systems simultaneously.

The politics of contaminated sites management : institutional regime change and actor's mode of participation in the environmental management of the Bonfol Chemical Waste Landfill in Switzerland

By the end of the 1970s, contaminated sites had emerged as one of the most complex and urgent environmental issues affecting industrialized countries. The authors show that small and prosperous Switzerland is no exception to the pervasive problem of sites contamination, the legacy of past practices in waste management having left some 38,000 contaminated sites throughout the country. This book outlines the problem, offering evidence that open and polycentric environmental decision-making that includes civil society actors is valuable. They propose an understanding of environmental management of contaminated sites as a political process in which institutions frame interactions between strategic actors pursuing sometimes conflicting interests. In the opening chapter, the authors describe the influences of politics and the power relationships between actors involved in decision-making in contaminated sites management, which they term a "wicked problem." Chapter Two offers a theoretical framework for understanding institutions and the environmental management of contaminated sites. The next five chapters present a detailed case study on environmental management and contaminated sites in Switzerland, focused on the Bonfol Chemical Landfill. The study and analysis covers the establishment of the landfill under the first generation of environmental regulations, its closure and early remediation efforts, and the gambling on the remediation objectives, methods and funding in the first decade of the 21st Century. The concluding chapter discusses the question of whether the strength of environmental regulations, and the type of interactions between public, private, and civil society actors can explain the environmental choices in contaminated sites management. Drawing lessons from research, the authors debate the value of institutional flexibility for dealing with environmental issues such as contaminated sites.

Are Voting Advice Applications (VVAs) more than Toys ? : First findings on Impact and Accountability of VAAs

To what extent do Voting Advice Applications (VAA) have an influence on voting behaviour and to what extent should providers be hold accountable for such tools? This paper puts forward some empirical evidence from the Swiss VAA smartvote. The enormous popularity of smartvote in the last national elections in 2007 and the feedback of users and candidates let us come to the conclusion that smartvote is more than a toy and likely to have an influence on the voting decisions. Since Swiss citizens not only vote for parties but also for candidates, and the voting recommendation of smartvote is based on the political positions of the candidates, smartvote turns out to be particularly helpful. Political scientists must not keep their hands off such tools. Scientific research is needed to understand their functioning and possibilities to manipulate elections. On the bases of a legal study we come to the conclusion, that a science driven way of setting up such tools is essential for their legitimacy. However, we do not believe that there is a single best way of setting up such a tool and rather support a market like solution with different competing tools, provided they meet minimal standards like transparency and equal access for all parties and candidates. Once the process of selecting candidates and parties are directly linked to the act of voting, all these questions will become even more salient.

Embodied technical change and the fluctuations of wages and unemployment

The paper shows that a matching model where technological change is partially embodied in the job match is successful in explaining the variability of unemployment and vacancies. If we incorporate long-term wage contracts into the model, it also explains a number of stylized facts on the dynamics of real wages, which have been found in the empirical labor literature.

Technological change and the wealth of nations

We discuss a unified theory of directed technological change and technologyadoption that can shed light on the causes of persistent productivity differencesacross countries. In our model, new technologies are designed in advanced countries and diffuse endogenously to less developed countries. Our framework is richenough to highlight three broad reasons for productivity differences: inappropriatetechnologies, policy-induced barriers to technology adoption, and within-countrymisallocations across sectors due to policy distortions. We also discuss the effectsof two aspects of globalization, trade in goods and migration, on the wealth ofnations through their impact on the direction of technical progress. By doing so,we illustrate some of the equalizing and unequalizing forces of globalization.

Developmental change in isoproterenol-mediated relaxation of pulmonary veins of fetal and newborn lambs.

beta-Adrenergic agonists are important regulators of perinatal pulmonary circulation. They cause vasodilation primarily via the adenyl cyclase-adenosine 3',5'-cyclic monophosphate (cAMP) pathway. We examined the responses of isolated fourth-generation pulmonary veins of term fetal (145 +/- 2 days gestation) and newborn (10 +/- 1 days) lambs to isoproterenol, a beta-adrenergic agonist. In vessels preconstricted with U-46619 (a thromboxane A2 analog), isoproterenol induced greater relaxation in pulmonary veins of newborn lambs than in those of fetal lambs. The relaxation was eliminated by propranolol, a beta-adrenergic antagonist. Forskolin, an activator of adenyl cyclase, also caused greater relaxation of veins of newborn than those of fetal lambs. 8-Bromoadenosine 3',5'-cyclic monophosphate, a cell membrane-permeable analog of cAMP, induced a similar relaxation of all vessels. Biochemical studies show that isoproterenol and forskolin induced a greater increase in cAMP content and in adenyl cyclase activity of pulmonary veins in the newborn than in the fetal lamb. These results demonstrate that beta-adrenergic-agonist-mediated relaxation of pulmonary veins increases with maturation. An increase in the activity of adenyl cyclase may contribute to the change.

Legitimacy and Accountability of Independent Regulatory Agencies: A Critical Review

This article reviews the literature that deals with the problem of legitimizing regulatory governance, with a special attention to the question of the accountability of independent regulatory agencies. The discussion begins with the presentation of the traditional arguments concerning the democratic deficit of the regulatory state. The positive evaluation of regulatory performance by citizens is presented as an alternative source of legitimacy. It follows the discussion of the existing approaches to make agencies accountable, so as to ensure the procedural legitimacy of regulatory governance. Some insights concerning new forms of accountability are offered in the last section, namely with reference to the establishment and ongoing consolidation of formal and informal networks of regulators.