Who you are or whom you know? Consumption interdependences in social networks

This paper presents an analysis of whether a consumer's decision to switch from one mobile phone provider to another is driven by individual consumer characteristics or by actions of other consumers in her social network. Such consumption interdependences are estimated using a unique dataset, which contains transaction data based on anonymized call records from a large European mobile phone carrier to approximate a consumer's social network. Results show that network effects have an important impact on consumers' switching decisions: switching decisions are interdependent between consumers who interact with each other and this interdependence increases in the closeness between two consumers as measured by the calling data. In other words, if a subscriber switches carriers, she is also affecting the switching probabilities of other individuals in her social circle. The paper argues that such an approach is of high relevance to both switching of providers and to the adoption of new products. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Sustainable consumption: from escape strategies towards real alternatives

Better sustainability policy is supposed to lead to better sustainability performance. Nonetheless, recent research predicts further growth of the ecological footprint and stable ecological deficit in Europe and North America despite their impressive policy efforts (Lenzen et al. 2007) [1]. Similarly, individual strategies result in somewhat reduced load for committed consumers, but this reduction cannot offset the total impact of the socio-economic configuration: consumers in higher income countries tend to pollute more. Comitted consumers "offset" a part of their environmental load by carrying out green purchases. A radical change assumes a change in lifestyle (Shove, 2004) [2]. The conference paper is the first step of the study that aims at measuring the significance of attitude elements as compared to the significance of the socio-economic system on different elements of consumption and environmental aspects This paper focuses on measuring the ecological footprint impacts of consumption in different product groups as well as in different income groups of the society.

Anatomy and lessons of the global financial crisis. Is US consumption financed by Chinese savings?

Savings and investments in the American money market by emerging countries, primarily China, financed the excessive consumption of the United States in the early 2000s, which indirectly led to a global financial crisis. The crisis started from the real estate mortgage market. Such balance disrupting processes began on the American financial market which contradicted all previously known equilibrium theories of every school of economics. Economics has yet to come up with models or empirical theories for this new disequilibrium. This is why the outbreak of the crisis could not be prevented or at least predicted. The question is, to what extent can existing market theories, calculation methods and the latest financial products be held responsible for the new situation. This paper studies the influence of the efficient market and modern portfolio theory, as well as Li’s copula function on the American investment market. Naturally, the issues of moral risks and greed, credit ratings and shareholder control, limited liability and market regulations are aspects, which cannot be ignored. In summary, the author outlines the potential alternative measures that could be applied to prevent a new crisis, defines the new directions of economic research and draws the conclusion for the Hungarian economic policy.

A Consumption-Based Approach to Carbon Emission Accounting – Sectoral Differences and Environmental Benefits

In recent years there has been growing concern about the emission trade balances of countries. This is due to the fact that countries with an open economy are active players in international trade. Trade is not only a major factor in forging a country’s economic structure, but contributes to the movement of embodied emissions beyond country borders. This issue is especially relevant from the carbon accounting policy and domestic production perspective, as it is known that the production-based principle is employed in the Kyoto agreement. The research described herein was designed to reveal the interdependence of countries on international trade and the corresponding embodied emissions both on national and on sectoral level and to illustrate the significance of the consumption-based emission accounting. It is presented here to what extent a consumption-based accounting would change the present system based on production-based accounting and allocation. The relationship of CO2 emission embodied in exports and embodied in imports is analysed here. International trade can blur the responsibility for the ecological effects of production and consumption and it can lengthen the link between consumption and its consequences. Input-output models are used in the methodology as they provide an appropriate framework for climate change accounting. The analysis comprises an international comparative study of four European countries (Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Hungary) with extended trading activities and carbon emissions. Moving from a production-based approach in climate policy to a consumption-based principle and allocation approach would help to increase the efficiency of emission reductions and would force countries to rethink their trading activities in order to decrease the environmental load of production activities. The results of this study show that it is important to distinguish between the two emission accounting approaches, both on the global and the local level.

Rethinking Kyoto Compliance from a Consumption-Based Perspective.

Environmental consequences of international trade are quite relevant for climate change policy. Apparent decoupling of GHG emission and GDP growth, observed in several European countries, is partly due to the increasing dislocation of manufacturing industries from the developed world to emerging economies. Consequently, decoupling is coupled with increasing GHG emission embodied in imported products from these nations. The article scrutinises the GHG emission embedded in Hungarian import of Chinese products. It argues that a stagnating GHG emission observed in Hungary is intertwined with hidden GHG export to China that takes place through trading of goods. Objective evaluation of compliance status with Kyoto targets would require a consumption-based accounting of GHG emissions rather than a production-based one, unless we accept facing a BIG problem at global level.

Fenntartható élelmiszer-fogyasztás? – Lehetőségek az ökológiai lábnyom csökkentésére a magyar lakosság körében (Sustainable food consumption? – Opportunities to reduce the ecological footprint of the Hungarian population)

Magyarországi fogyasztókról még nem készült olyan reprezentatív felmérés, amely az élelmiszer-fogyasztás környezetterhelését az ökológiai lábnyommal mérve számszerűsítette. A szerző kutatásában az élelmiszer- fogyasztásból származó ökológiai lábnyomot számszerűsítette és elemezte a magyar felnőtt lakosság körében. A cikkben először bemutatja a fenntartható élelmiszer-fogyasztás szakirodalomban található definícióit, majd a fenntartható és egészséges élelmiszer-fogyasztás mátrixát elemzi. Az elméleti áttekintést követően az empirikus kutatás eredményeinek ismertetése következik. ____ In her research the author quantified and analysed the ecological footprint from food consumption in the Hungarian adult population. In the article she presents the definitions of sustainable food consumption in the literature, and then analyses the matrix of sustainable and healthy food consumption. Following a theoretical overview the author presents the results of her empirical research.

Az élelmiszer-fogyasztás szerkezete és környezeti hatása Magyarországon (Analysing the structure and environmental impact of food consumption in hungary)

Egyre többen ismerik fel, hogy az élelmiszer-fogyasztás egészségügyi és környezeti hatása is jelentős. A különböző életstílusú társadalmi csoportok fogyasztási szerkezete eltérő lehet. Jelen tanulmány ezerfős, országos reprezentatív minta alapján vizsgálja az élelmiszer-fogyasztási szerkezet eltéréseit a nemek és különböző iskolázottságú fogyasztók körében. Jellemző fogyasztási klasztereket tár fel a fogyasztás szerkezete alapján. A fogyasztás szerkezeti és mennyiségi értékein túlmenően az ökológiai lábnyom indikátorával a fogyasztás környezetterhelését is számszerűsíti. _____ Concern about both health and environmental impacts of food consumption is increasing. Social groups with various lifestyles can have different food consumption structure. The present study analyses the differences in the food consumption structure among genders and educational groups based on a national, representative survey of 1000 adults. Food consumption clusters are identified based on food consumption structure. Beyond the analysis of food consumption and its structure, its environmental impact is quantified by the ecological footprint indicator.

Generational differences in consumption patterns in Hungary

Various authors have used the term consumer society with a number of different meanings, yet one common point has been the shift of focus to the consumer ethos, which alters the everyday life of society members and their relationship to each other and society as a whole. One’s relationship to consumption determines fundamental levels of consumption and for what purposes (e.g. hedonic values, family and savings), thus it is essential to explore this relationship to develop an understanding of consumer behaviour and to create effective marketing messages. This paper provides a brief summary of the various approaches and research lines of consumer culture and reviews the findings of the first, qualitative phase of our consumer culture study in Hungary. The purpose of this research programme is to analyse the changes in people’s relationships to consumption since the change of regime.

Essays on exchange rate economics

Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. ^ Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. ^ Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. ^ Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption. ^

Essays on durable goods consumption and firm innovation

This dissertation comprises three individual chapters. Chapter Two examines how free riding across neighbors influenced the diffusion of color television sets in rural China. Chapter Three tests for asymmetric information between a firm’s management and other investors concerning its patent output. Chapter Four discusses how knowledge stocks influence a patenting firm’s later diversification. Chapter Two documents the existence of a type of network effects—free riding across neighbors—in the consumption of color television sets in rural China, which reduces the propensity of non-owners to purchase. I construct a model of the timing of the purchase of a durable good in the presence of free riding, and test its key implications using household survey data in rural China. Chapter Three tests for asymmetric information between a firm’s management and other investors about its patent output by examining insider trading patterns and stock price changes in R&D intensive firms. It demonstrates that management has considerable information about its patent output beyond what is known to investors. It also shows that the predictive power of insider trading patterns on patent output comes from purchases rather than sales. Chapter Four discusses two sequential channels through which knowledge stocks may influence a firm’s later diversification. One is that firms with more knowledge are more likely to enter a new industry. The other is that firms’ businesses have a better chance of surviving, conditional on being formed. By examining U.S. public patenting firms in manufacturing sectors for 1984-1996, I find that knowledge stocks predict the likelihood of new industry entry when controlling for firm size. However, this predictive power is weakened when diversification effects are included. On the other hand, a survival study of newly established segments shows that initial knowledge stocks have significant positive effects on segment survival, whereas diversification effects are insignificant.