How tight should one's hands be tied? Fear of floating and credibility of exchange rate regimes

This paper analyzes the linkages between the credibility of a target zone regime, the volatility of the exchange rate, and the width of the band where the exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate. These three concepts should be related since the band width induces a trade-off between credibility and volatility. Narrower bands should give less scope for the exchange rate to fluctuate but may make agents perceive a larger probability of realignment which by itself should increase the volatility of the exchange rate. We build a model where this trade-off is made explicit. The model is used to understand the reduction in volatility experienced by most EMS countries after their target zones were widened on August 1993. As a natural extension, the model also rationalizes the existence of non-official, implicit target zones (or fear of floating), suggested by some authors.

Fear of model misspecifcation and the robustness premium

Robust decision making implies welfare costs or robustness premia when the approximating model is the true data generating process. To examine the importance of these premia at the aggregate level we employ a simple two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with human capital and introduce an additional form of precautionary behavior. The latter arises from the robust decision maker s ability to reduce the effects of model misspecification through allocating time and existing human capital to this end. We find that the extent of the robustness premia critically depends on the productivity of time relative to that of human capital. When the relative efficiency of time is low, despite transitory welfare costs, there are gains from following robust policies in the long-run. In contrast, high relative productivity of time implies misallocation costs that remain even in the long-run. Finally, depending on the technology used to reduce model uncertainty, we fi nd that while increasing the fear of model misspecfi cation leads to a net increase in precautionary behavior, investment and output can fall.

Bihippocampal damage with emotional dysfunction: impaired auditory recognition of fear.

A right-handed man developed a sudden transient, amnestic syndrome associated with bilateral hemorrhage of the hippocampi, probably due to Urbach-Wiethe disease. In the 3rd month, despite significant hippocampal structural damage on imaging, only a milder degree of retrograde and anterograde amnesia persisted on detailed neuropsychological examination. On systematic testing of recognition of facial and vocal expression of emotion, we found an impairment of the vocal perception of fear, but not that of other emotions, such as joy, sadness and anger. Such selective impairment of fear perception was not present in the recognition of facial expression of emotion. Thus emotional perception varies according to the different aspects of emotions and the different modality of presentation (faces versus voices). This is consistent with the idea that there may be multiple emotion systems. The study of emotional perception in this unique case of bilateral involvement of hippocampus suggests that this structure may play a critical role in the recognition of fear in vocal expression, possibly dissociated from that of other emotions and from that of fear in facial expression. In regard of recent data suggesting that the amygdala is playing a role in the recognition of fear in the auditory as well as in the visual modality this could suggest that the hippocampus may be part of the auditory pathway of fear recognition.

Fear assessment in pigs exposed to a novel object test

The experiment aimed to study approach and locomotive behaviour as indicators of fear in a novel object test carried out in pigs. Thirty post-weaning (30 kg) and 30 finishing (90 kg) pigs were exposed to visual, auditory and olfactory novel stimuli during 2 different experiments. The facilities consisted of a test pen in which a trough was located. The trough contained chopped apples. Once the animals were trained to enter the test pen individually they were subjected to 3 different fear stimuli. These stimuli were applied in the test pen and next to the trough. The variables studied were feeding behaviour, approach behaviour (the distance and position of the animal with respect to the trough) and locomotive behaviour (general activity, reluctance to move, turning back and retreat attempts). Two groups were studied: saline and midazolam treated group. Twenty minutes before the start of the sessions, 15 post-weaning and finishing pigs received an intramuscular injection of 0.20 and 0.15 mg/kg, respectively, midazolam (Dormicum1). The saline pigs (15 animals per group) were injected with saline. The administration of midazolam increased the feeding behaviour and approaching behaviour, and reduced the locomotive behaviour. In front of the visual and olfactory stimuli post-weaning pigs showed a higher general activity than finishing pigs, but the contrary was found when the auditory stimulus was applied. The olfactory stimulus was more related to the turning back behaviour, whereas the visual stimulus was more related to retreat attempts. Although it could be concluded that reluctant to move was the most common response to the different fear stimuli applied in our study regardless of the age of animals, the combination of reluctant to move and turning back would be a good criterion to assess fear in domestic pigs. The use of midazolam as anxiolytic for studies of fear in commercial conditions in pigs is recommended.

Conditioned polarized Caco-2 cell monolayers allow to discriminate for the ability of gut-derived microorganisms to modulate permeability and antigen-induced basophil degranulation.

BACKGROUND: Food allergy is a common allergic disorder--especially in early childhood. The avoidance of the allergenic food is the only available method to prevent further reactions in sensitized patients. A better understanding of the immunologic mechanisms involved in this reaction would help to develop therapeutic approaches applicable to the prevention of food allergy. OBJECTIVE: To establish a multi-cell in vitro model of sensitized intestinal epithelium that mimics the intestinal epithelial barrier to study the capacity of probiotic microorganisms to modulate permeability, translocation and immunoreactivity of ovalbumin (OVA) used as a model antigen. METHODS: Polarized Caco-2 cell monolayers were conditioned by basolateral basophils and used to examine apical to basolateral transport of OVA by ELISA. Activation of basophils with translocated OVA was measured by beta-hexosaminidase release assay. This experimental setting was used to assess how microorganisms added apically affected these parameters. Basolateral secretion of cytokine/chemokines by polarized Caco-2 cell monolayers was analysed by ELISA. RESULTS: Basophils loaded with OVA-specific IgE responded to OVA in a dose-dependent manner. OVA transported across polarized Caco-2 cell monolayers was found to trigger basolateral basophil activation. Microorganisms including lactobacilli and Escherichia coli increased transepithelial electrical resistance while promoting OVA passage capable to trigger basophil activation. Non-inflammatory levels of IL-8 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin were produced basolaterally by Caco-2 cells exposed to microorganisms. CONCLUSION: The complex model designed in here is adequate to learn about the consequence of the interaction between microorganisms and epithelial cells vis-a-vis the barrier function and antigen translocation, two parameters essential to mucosal homeostasis. It can further serve as a direct tool to search for microorganisms with anti-allergic and anti-inflammatory properties.

The effect of isolation on reproduction and growth of Pseudosuccinea columella (Pulmonata: Lymnaeidae): a snail-conditioned water experiment

A snail-conditioned water experiment was conducted in Pseudosuccinea columella to test the possible role of a chemical interaction between snails on the diminished growth and fecundity rates found for snails raised in pairs compared to those raised in complete isolation. The results permit to discard the hypothesis of an inhibition of growth and reproduction between snails due to factors released into the water.

Effect of a pilot gait and balance training program: The importance of fear of falling.

Purpose: To determine the evolution of fear of falling, and its relationship with gait performance after a 10-week gait and balance training program. Population and methods: Participants (N=50) were community-dwelling elderly persons enrolled voluntarily in a 10-week, low intensity, gait and balance training program. At baseline, fear of falling was assessed using a previously validated version of Tinetti's Fall Efficacy Scale (FES, range 0-120, higher score indicating higher confidence), that assesses one's confidence in performing 12 activities of daily life without falling. Gait parameters were measured over a 20m walk at preferred gait speed, using the Physilog system (Aminian K, et al., J Biomechanics, 2002). This system uses 4 kinematics sensors attached to the lower limbs and a data logger carried by the subject. Follow-up data on fear of falling and gait were collected one week after completion of the program. Results: Overall, 43 (86%) of the participants completed the program. Mean age was 78.1 years, 79% were women. At baseline, mean FES score was 98.8 (range 58-120) and mean gait speed was 0.92 m/sec (range 0.43-1.47). At follow-up, participants modestly improved their FES score (98.8±17.0 vs 103.2±16.0, P=.04) and gait speed (0.92±0.27 vs 0.99±0.26 m/sec, P<.01). In secondary analyses stratified by subject's baseline FES, those with lower than average confidence (N=21) improved significantly both FES score (84.4±11.8 vs 94.5±17.9, P<.01) and gait speed (0.79±0.26 vs 0.90±0.28 m/sec, P<.01), while no similar improvement was observed in subjects (N=22) with higher baseline confidence (112.5±6.6 vs 111.5±7.5, P=.56 and 1.03±0.22 vs 1.07±0.21 m/sec, P=.41). After adjustment for age, gender and baseline gait speed, subjects with lower baseline confidence had higher odds than the others to improve their confidence (AdjOR=10.8, 95%CI 1.8- 64.8 P=.01) and gait speed (AdjOR=3.3, 95%CI 0.6-19.7, P=.19) at follow-up. Conclusions: This pilot program of low intensity exercise modestly improved participants' fear of falling and gait speed. Interestingly, subjects with higher baseline fear of falling seemed more likely to benefit. Despite methodological limitations (pre-post comparisons, small sample), these results suggest that measuring fear of falling might be useful to better target subjects most likely to benefit from similar programs.

Aversive Stimuli and Functional Networks of Fear Learning in PTSD : 734

Background: One characteristic of post traumatic stress disorder is an inability to adapt to a safe environment i.e. to change behavior when predictions of adverse outcomes are not met. Recent studies have also indicated that PTSD patients have altered pain processing, with hyperactivation of the putamen and insula to aversive stimuli (Geuze et al, 2007). The present study examined neuronal responses to aversive and predicted aversive events. Methods: Twenty-four trauma exposed non-PTSD controls and nineteen subjects with PTSD underwent fMRI imaging during a partial reinforcement fear conditioning paradigm, with a mild electric shock as the unconditioned stimuli (UCS). Three conditions were analyzed: actual presentations of the UCS, events when a UCS was expected, but omitted (CS+), and events when the UCS was neither expected nor delivered (CS-). Results: The UCS evoked significant alterations in the pain matrix consisting of the brainstem, the midbrain, the thalamus, the insula, the anterior and middle cingulate and the contralateral somatosensory cortex. PTSD subjects displayed bilaterally elevated putamen activity to the electric shock, as compared to controls. In trials when USC was expected, but omitted, significant activations were observed in the brainstem, the midbrain, the anterior insula and the anterior cingulate. PTSD subjects displayed similar activations, but also elevated activations in the amygdala and the posterior insula. Conclusions: These results indicate altered fear and safety learning in PTSD, and neuronal activations are further explored in terms of functional connectivity using psychophysiological interaction analyses.

Physical activity, bodyweight, health and fear of negative evaluation in primary school children.

Fear of negative evaluation (FNE) is regarded as being the core feature of social anxiety. The present study examined how FNE is associated with physical activity (PA), body mass index (BMI) and perceived physical health (PPH) in children. Data were collected in a sample of 502 primary school children in first and fifth grades taking part in a randomized-controlled trial ("Kinder-Sportstudie KISS") aimed at increasing PA and health. PA was assessed by accelerometry over 7 days, PPH by the Child Health Questionnaire and FNE by the Social Anxiety Scale for Children--Revised. BMI z-scores were calculated based on Swiss norms. Cross-sectional analyses indicated that children high in FNE exercised less, reported lower levels of PPH and had higher BMI z-scores (P&lt;0.01). Using mixed linear models, the school-based PA intervention did not manage to reduce FNE scores. Overweight children demonstrated a greater increase in FNE (P&lt;0.05) indicating that enhanced weight may be a risk factor for FNE. In conclusion, the associations among high FNE, low PA and increased BMI should be considered when promoting an active lifestyle in children.