Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models: Application to road accident data

Using the Bayesian approach as the model selection criteria, the main purpose in this study is to establish a practical road accident model that can provide a better interpretation and prediction performance. For this purpose we are using a structural explanatory model with autoregressive error term. The model estimation is carried out through Bayesian inference and the best model is selected based on the goodness of fit measures. To cross validate the model estimation further prediction analysis were done. As the road safety measures the number of fatal accidents in Spain, during 2000-2011 were employed. The results of the variable selection process show that the factors explaining fatal road accidents are mainly exposure, economic factors, and surveillance and legislative measures. The model selection shows that the impact of economic factors on fatal accidents during the period under study has been higher compared to surveillance and legislative measures.

A vision based aerial rbot solution for the IARC 2014 by the Technical University of Madrid

The IARC competitions aim at making the state of the art in UAV progress. The 2014 challenge deals mainly with GPS/Laser denied navigation, Robot-Robot interaction and Obstacle avoidance in the setting of a ground robot herding problem. We present in this paper a drone which will take part in this competition. The platform and hardware it is composed of and the software we designed are introduced. This software has three main components: the visual information acquisition, the mapping algorithm and the Aritificial Intelligence mission planner. A statement of the safety measures integrated in the drone and of our efforts to ensure field testing in conditions as close as possible to the challenge?s is also included.

Diseño arquitectónico y protección en caso de incendio: desarrollo normativo español en materia de evacuación en los siglos XIX y XX

Esta es la búsqueda de respuestas a esa duda constante: De dónde venimos y que hemos ido dejando por el camino. ¿Está todo claro en este recorrido o hemos actuado por acumulación de errores heredados de procesos anteriores? Es la investigación a través del descubrimiento de nuestro pasado, de nuestros orígenes en materia de seguridad de protección contra incendios, y sobre todo de ejecución de una arquitectura pensada para ser recorrida con mayor seguridad y ser evacuada en un tiempo razonable. El trabajo investiga, a nivel nacional, la evolución de la sociedad y sus efectos sobre la manera de interpretar el problema de la seguridad contra incendios en los edificios. El interés fundamentalmente es poner en claro todos aquellos aspectos que afectan a la evacuación de las personas. Para ello se han estudiado los principales hitos de actuación, las preocupaciones principales surgidas en cada momento y las soluciones adoptadas. Se ha comprobado su aplicación o su demora hasta que se ha producido el siguiente gran suceso que ha motivado una nueva revisión de los procedimientos de diseño y control. En primer lugar, tratando de relacionar los incendios fundamentales que han influido en nuestra forma de abordar el problema en distintos momentos de la historia de España. En segundo lugar, haciendo un recorrido sobre la figura del arquitecto y su participación en los medios de control y legislación sobre la manera de intervenir en el servicio de incendios o de resolver los edificios en materia de protección contra incendios o evacuación de sus ocupantes. En definitiva, descubriendo los escritos de algunos especialistas, fundamentales para entender nuestra manera de abordar el problema de la protección en los edificios, a lo largo de la historia. Se ha revisado como se han producido los siniestros más importantes en teatros y otros locales públicos .Analizando la forma en que los arquitectos implicados han tratado de resolver las posibles deficiencias ante el riesgo. Se trata de la tipología edificatoria donde, por primera vez, surge la preocupación por adoptar medidas y procedimientos de seguridad en caso de incendio. Resultan locales con una importante siniestralidad, donde se desarrolla la principal actividad lúdica del momento, y que por el importante número de personas que albergan, son fuente de preocupación entre el público y las autoridades. Otras cuestiones en un tema tan amplio, que quedan simplemente esbozadas en este trabajo de investigación, son los procedimientos de los sistemas de extinción, la estructura organizativa de la ciudad, las primeras sociedades de seguros de incendios, la aparición de patentes a partir del desarrollo industrial del siglo XIX. Todo ello, con el hilo conductor de la reglamentación que se ha ido elaborando al respecto. Al principio, sobre espectáculos públicos, acotando el punto de partida en la materia de nuestra reglamentación. Anticipando sistemas constructivos y datos dimensionales de la evacuación. Llegados a mediados del siglo XX, abordando otros usos. Haciendo seguimiento de la modernización de los procesos edificatorios y la reglamentación sectorial. Recabando información de las organizaciones profesionales que comienzan a reclamar una coordinación nacional de los sistemas preventivos y que desemboca en el Proyecto de Reglamento de prevención contra el fuego que nunca será publicado. Toda esta etapa, plagada de documentos de carácter voluntario u obligatorio, local y nacional, van definiendo los criterios dimensionales con los que debe resolverse los elementos arquitectónicos susceptibles de servir para la evacuación. Se trata de una etapa intensa en documentación, cambiante, sujeta a los criterios que establecen los países del entorno más avanzados en la materia. Las dos últimas décadas del siglo, acotadas por la transición política y varios siniestros de graves consecuencias, definen el proceso normativo que culmina con el código técnico de la edificación que hoy conocemos. Es un periodo de aprendizaje y asimilación del capítulo de la seguridad, donde los métodos son variados. Donde la intencionalidad última es trasladar un sistema prescriptivo a un modelo prestacional propio de la madurez en el análisis del tema y en las corrientes de los países del entorno. ABSTRACT This is the search for answers to that constant question: Where do we come from and what have left along the way? Has everything been clear on this journey, or have we acted as a result of a collection of errors learned from prior processes? This has been research through exploration of our past, of our origins regarding fire protection safety, and, above all, of the endeavour to utilize architecture aimed at offering the highest level of safety and evacuation in a reasonable time. This project has researched society’s change nationwide and its effects on how to interpret the difficulty of fire protection safety in buildings. Its focus has fundamentally been to clarify those aspects that affect the evacuation of people. To this end, the main milestones of action, the principal concerns that have arisen at each step, and the solutions taken have all been studied. A check was performed on their application; or their delay until a significant event occurred that prompted a new revision of design and control procedures. Firstly, this was done by attempting to connect the main fires that have influenced how we handle the problem at different times in Spain’s history. Secondly, an examination was done on the figure of the architect and his participation in the means of control and legislation on how to intercede in fire services, or how the architect finds solutions for buildings in terms of fire protection, or the evacuation of their occupants. In short, the written works of certain specialists, who are essential to our understanding of how to deal with the problem of protection in buildings, were explored throughout history. A study was done on the most significant disasters in theatres and other public establishments. This was done by analysing the way the architects involved have aimed to solve possible points liable to risk. It is a classification of building where, for the first time, the concern arose to adopt safety measures and procedures in the event of fires. Public establishments with considerable accident rates emerged. Here the main entertainment activities of the time took place. These spaces were a source of worry among the public and authorities due to the high number of persons they accommodated. Other issues in such an extensive subject, which are only outlined in this research study, are procedures in extinguishing systems, the organizational structure of cities, the first fire insurance companies, and the appearance of patents after the industrial development of the 19th century. All of these aspects are joined by the common thread of regulations that have been created in this matter. At the beginning, these regulations were for public shows, thus defining the starting point for our regulations. This was done in anticipation of structural systems and size data of evacuations. With the arrival of the mid-20th century, different uses were addressed. A modernization of construction processes and the industry regulations were tracked. Information was gathered from professional organizations that began to demand a national coordination of prevention systems which led to the Regulation Project on fire prevention which will never be published. Throughout this stage, replete with voluntary and compulsory documents, both on the local and national level, the dimensional criteria to be used in the resolution of architectural elements open to use in evacuation were defined. This was a period that was filled with documentation, change, and subject to the criteria that the most advanced countries in the field established in this regard. The final two decades of the century, marked by political transition and several accidents with grave consequences, defined the regulation process that culminated with the building technical code known today. This was a period of learning and understanding in the chapter of safety, where the methods are varied. In this chapter, the ultimate goal is to insert a prescriptive-based standard into a performance-based code suitable for cultivated experience in analysis of the subject and the tendencies in countries dealing with this field.

A Regulatory Compliance Plan for Decommissioning a Sodium Phosphate Manufacturing Plant

Sodium phosphates are a class of chemicals that have been widely employed in commercial and consumer applications. However, declining use of these chemicals due to environmental concerns has lead to restructuring within the industry that has caused, and is likely to continue to cause, reduction of sodium phosphate production capacity. Closure of a sodium phosphate manufacturing plant necessitates decommissioning and decontamination activities that are subject to a variety of federal, state, and local regulations. A compliance plan was developed to provide a blueprint for ensuring that all federal regulatory requirements are met, however, site dependent state and local requirements were excluded. The compliance plan provides a framework that addresses project team formation and project planning, regulatory requirements, identification of affected processing equipment, plant pre-shutdown activities, waste stream identification and waste management facilities, safety, training, and emergency preparedness planning, and project decommissioning remedial actions. This regulatory compliance plan will enable sodium phosphate plant operators to complete decontamination and decommissioning work in a timely, efficient, compliant, and cost effective manner.

Trends in mortality due to motor vehicle traffic accident injuries between 1987 and 2011 in a Spanish region (Comunitat Valenciana)

Objective: To analyse the time evolution of the rates of mortality due to motor vehicle traffic accidents (MVTA) injuries that occurred among the general population of Comunitat Valenciana between 1987 and 2011, as well as to identify trend changes by sex and age group. Methods: An observational study of annual mortality trends between 1987 and 2011. We studied all deaths due to MVTA injuries that occurred during this period of time among the non-institutionalised population residing in Comunitat Valenciana (a Spanish Mediterranean region that had a population of 5,117,190 inhabitants in 2011). The rates of mortality due to MVTA injuries were calculated for each sex and year studied. These rates were standardised by age for the total population and for specific age groups using the direct method (age-standardised rate – ASR). Joinpoint regression models were used in order to detect significant trend changes. Additionally, the annual percentage change (APC) of the ASRs was calculated for each trend segment, which is reflected in statistically significant joinpoints. Results: For all ages, ASRs decrease greatly in both men and women (70% decrease between 1990 and 2011). In 1990 and 2011, men have rates of 36.5 and 5.2 per 100,000 men/year, respectively. In the same years, women have rates of 8.0 and 0.9 per 100,000 women/year, respectively. This decrease reaches up to 90% in the age group 15–34 years in both men and women. ASR ratios for men and women increased over time for all ages: this ratio was 3.9 in 1987; 4.6 in 1990; and 5.8 in 2011. For both men and women, there is a first significant segment (p < 0.05) with an increasing trend between 1987 and 1989–1990. After 1990, there are 3 segments with a significant decreasing APC (1990–1993, 1993–2005 and 2005–2011, in the case of men; and 1989–1996, 1999–2007 and 2007–2011, in the case of women). Conclusion: The risk of death due to motor vehicle traffic accidents injuries has decreased significantly, especially in the case of women, for the last 25 years in Comunitat Valenciana, mainly as of 2006. This may be a consequence of the road-safety measures that have been implemented in Spain and in Comunitat Valenciana since 2004. The economic crisis that this country has undergone since 2008 may have also been a contributing factor to this decrease. Despite the decrease, ASR ratios for men and women increased over time and it is still a high-risk cause of death among young men. It is thus important that the measures that helped decrease the risk of death are maintained and improved over time.

The Israeli lobby for Research and Innovation in the European Union. An example of efficient cooperation in the European Neighbourhood? Bruges Political Research Papers 49/2015.

Israel figures among the world-leaders in R&D expenditure and has a high-performing scientific community. Since the 1990s it has been associated with the Scientific Policy of the European Union via the European Research Framework Programmes (FP). The cooperation between Israel and the EU in this domain has gradually increased and benefits the scientific communities on both sides. In 2014 the association of Israel to the latest and biggest European FP ever adopted (Horizon 2020) was renewed for the fourth time. Based on all the scientific evidence provided, the elaboration of a European Research Policy can be identified as a highly regulated domain, offering relevant ‘channels of influence’. These channels offer Israel the opportunity to act within the Research Policy system. Being a member of several formal EU bodies in charge of implementing EU Research Policy, Israel is able to introduce its positions effectively. This is accompanied by an outstanding level of activity by Israel in linking concrete EU Research Policy measures to the Israeli Scientific Community at the national level. To carry out this task, Israel relies on an effective organization, which remodels the provided EU structures: European ‘National Contact Points’ (NCPs) are concentrated within the ‘Europe Israel R&D Directorate’ (ISERD). ISERD connects efficiently all the relevant actors, forums and phases of EU-Israeli Research Policy. ISERD can be recognized as being at the heart of Israel's research cooperation with the EU, and its structure may be a source of in

Acidentes com perfurocortantes em profissionais da assistência do SAMU, Maceió

Introdução – Os acidentes de trabalho envolvendo material biológico entre profissionais de saúde são frequentes e constituem um problema de saúde pública, pois representam uma preocupação constante das instituições e dos profissionais de saúde. Os profissionais do pré hospitalar tornam-se mais expostos pela tensão emocional vivida, pela natureza e circunstâncias do seu exercício profissional. Objetivos – Identificar a ocorrência de acidentes ocupacionais com materiais perfurocortantes nos profissionais de saúde do SAMU Maceió; identificar os acidentes mais frequentes, os períodos em que ocorrem e avaliar as condutas tomadas após o acidente. Métodos – Estudo descritivo com orientação analítico-descritiva desenvolvido numa amostra de 40 profissionais de saúde, Enfermeiro socorrista, Técnico Enfermagem e Médicos Socorristas. A recolha de informação foi suportada num questionário elaborado para o efeito. Resultados – A nossa amostra apresentou uma média de idades de 39,2 anos, o sexo feminino foi maioritário com 70,0% e 50,0% trabalha entre 6 a 10 anos na unidade. A maioria dos acidentes perfuro cortantes foram provocados por agulhas (75,0%) e dos quais não resultou incapacidade em 75%. A maioria dos acidentes ocorreram no verão e no turno da noite. Grande número de profissionais (70%) não cumpriu com as normas de procedimentos após o acidente e 80,0% dos profissionais não realizaram a quimioprofilaxia, não cumprindo com o protocolo do Ministérios da Saúde do Brasil. O paciente-fonte foi identificado em 87,5% dos casos mas verificamos uma subnotificação dos acidentes pois 45,0% dos profissionais não o fizeram. Nenhum profissional frequentou formação específica sobre acidentes de trabalho Conclusões – Verificamos uma alta incidência de acidentes perfurocortantes entre os profisionais do SAMU. Existe uma subnotificação do acidente e um déficite nas condutas apropriadas após o acidente. A população estudada necessita de uma maior sensibilização/formação quanto às medidas preventivas de segurança no ambiente de trabalho e motivação para o controle e prevenção dos acidentes ocupacionais no exercício de sua profissão. Palavras-chave: Acidente de trabalho. Materiais biológicos. Materiais perfurocortantes.

Tritium handling : a literature search /

Included are 157 references to reports, journals, and other literature related to the problems and techniques of tritium handling. The subject scope embraces analytical and monitoring procedures and instruments, physiological effects, and safety measures and standards.

Bus and passenger accident prevention. Final report.

Federal Transit Administration, Washington, D.C.

Rural road accidents in Iran: analysis, comparison and the cost

In the general introduction of the road-accident phenomenon inside and outside Iran, the results of previous research-works and international conferences and seminars on road-safety have been reviewed. Also a sample-road between Tehran and Mashad has been investigated as a case-study. Examining the road-accident data and iriformation,first: the information presented in road-accident report-forms in developed countries is discussed and, second: the procedures for road-accident data collection in Iran are investigated in detail. The data supplied by Iran Road-Police Central Statistics Office, is analysed, different rates are computed, due comparisons with other nations are made, and the results are discussed. Also such analysis and comparisons are presented for different provinces of Iran. It is concluded that each province with its own natural, geographical, social and economical characteristics possesses its own reasons for the quality and quantity of road-accidents and therefore must receive its own appropriate remedial solutions. The question~ of "what is the cost of road-accidents", "why and how evaluate the cost", "what is the appropriate way of approach to such evaluation" are all discussed and then "the cost of road-accidents in Iran" based on two different approaches: "Gross National Output"and "court award" is computed. It is concluded that this cost is about 1.5 per cent of the country's national product. In Appendix 3 an impressive example is given of the trend of costs and benefits that can be attributed to investment in road-safety measures.

Principles and Practice of Fire Modelling: A Collection of Lecture Notes for a Short Course

Once the preserve of university academics and research laboratories with high-powered and expensive computers, the power of sophisticated mathematical fire models has now arrived on the desk top of the fire safety engineer. It is a revolution made possible by parallel advances in PC technology and fire modelling software. But while the tools have proliferated, there has not been a corresponding transfer of knowledge and understanding of the discipline from expert to general user. It is a serious shortfall of which the lack of suitable engineering courses dealing with the subject is symptomatic, if not the cause. The computational vehicles to run the models and an understanding of fire dynamics are not enough to exploit these sophisticated tools. Too often, they become 'black boxes' producing magic answers in exciting three-dimensional colour graphics and client-satisfying 'virtual reality' imagery. As well as a fundamental understanding of the physics and chemistry of fire, the fire safety engineer must have at least a rudimentary understanding of the theoretical basis supporting fire models to appreciate their limitations and capabilities. The five day short course, "Principles and Practice of Fire Modelling" run by the University of Greenwich attempt to bridge the divide between the expert and the general user, providing them with the expertise they need to understand the results of mathematical fire modelling. The course and associated text book, "Mathematical Modelling of Fire Phenomena" are aimed at students and professionals with a wide and varied background, they offer a friendly guide through the unfamiliar terrain of mathematical modelling. These concepts and techniques are introduced and demonstrated in seminars. Those attending also gain experience in using the methods during "hands-on" tutorial and workshop sessions. On completion of this short course, those participating should: - be familiar with the concept of zone and field modelling; - be familiar with zone and field model assumptions; - have an understanding of the capabilities and limitations of modelling software packages for zone and field modelling; - be able to select and use the most appropriate mathematical software and demonstrate their use in compartment fire applications; and - be able to interpret model predictions. The result is that the fire safety engineer is empowered to realise the full value of mathematical models to help in the prediction of fire development, and to determine the consequences of fire under a variety of conditions. This in turn enables him or her to design and implement safety measures which can potentially control, or at the very least reduce the impact of fire.

Sistema de notificação e monitorização de acidentes para motociclos

A percentagem de utilização de motociclos tem vindo a crescer relativamente à utilização de veículos automóveis. Provavelmente, este número continuará a aumentar anualmente devido a diversos fatores: a mobilidade, a flexibilidade de circulação e o menor gasto de combustível. No entanto, um dos principais problemas da condução de motociclos é o elevado risco de acidente, comparativamente com os veículos automóveis. A segurança do condutor e passageiros, quando sujeitos a um acidente, merece total atenção. Convém, pois, encontrar soluções com capacidade de prevenir ou ajudar a minimizar o número de mortalidade que possam ocorrer diariamente. Uma maior atenção às medidas de segurança rodoviária veio diminuir o número de acidentes, no entanto, quando estes acontecem, a ajuda das unidades médicas demora algum tempo a chegar. Sabe-se que nestas situações, qualquer segundo pode fazer a diferença. Este é o problema que o autor deseja resolver. Na presente dissertação, o autor pretende demonstrar como desenvolveu um sistema para motociclos com a capacidade de reconhecer um acidente, enviando um alerta (SMS) com a informação do local da ocorrência (GPS). Este sistema foi preparado para operar em locais isolados com pouco ou nenhum tráfego rodoviário. Implementou-se no referido sistema uma tecnologia sem fios e fiabilizou-se um método capaz de ser utilizado em diversos modelos de motociclos. Procedeu-se à realização de interfaces que permitem monitorizar e possibilitar o reconhecimento da informação sobre o condutor e sobre o acidente, em tempo real.