Application of Infrared Thermal Imaging in a Violinist with Temporomandibular Disorder

Temporomandibular disorders (TMD) consist of a group of pathologies that affect the masticatory muscles, temporomandibular joints (TMJ), and/or related structures. String instrumentalists, like many orchestra musicians, can spend hours with head postures that may influence the biomechanical behavior of the TMJ and the muscles of the craniocervicomandibular complex (CCMC). The adoption of abnormal postures acquired during performance by musicians can lead to muscular hyperactivity of the head and cervical muscles, with the possible appearance of TMD. Medical infrared thermography is a non-invasive procedure that can monitor the changes in the superficial tissue related to blood circulation and may serve as a complement to the clinical examination. The objective of this study was to use infrared thermography to evaluate, in one subject, the cutaneous thermal changes adjacent to the CCMC that occur before, during, and after playing a string instrument.

Ensemble methods for environmental data modelling with support vector regression

This paper investigates the use of ensemble of predictors in order to improve the performance of spatial prediction methods. Support vector regression (SVR), a popular method from the field of statistical machine learning, is used. Several instances of SVR are combined using different data sampling schemes (bagging and boosting). Bagging shows good performance, and proves to be more computationally efficient than training a single SVR model while reducing error. Boosting, however, does not improve results on this specific problem.

Niagara Symphony Orchestra fonds, 1926, 1948-1998, n.d.

In 1948, The St. Catharines Civic Orchestra was founded by Jan Wolanek who was also the first conductor. Initially, this was a community orchestra and in 1963 its governing body assumed the name St. Catharines Symphony Association. In 1978 the name was again changed to The Niagara Symphony Association to reflect regional responsibilities. Wally Laughton was named Assistant Conductor in 1952/53. R.C. Clarke took over the orchestra for an interim period after Wolanek left in 1957. In 1958 Leonard Pearlman became the Music Director. It was under his direction that the Niagara Symphony Chorus came into existence in 1963. Milton Barnes succeeded Pearlman in 1964 and he was responsible for directing the symphony’s first opera production. He also made a concerted effort to attract younger people to symphonic music. In 1972 Leonard Atherton became the Music Director. He started the Cantata Choir and the Madrigal Singers. It was under his tenure that the orchestra became professional. When Atherton left in 1980, there were three seasons of guest conductors, the most notable of these conductors was Uri Mayer. In 1981 James Vincent Fusco was appointed as composer in residence and in 1983 Ermanno Florio became the Music Director. He retained this position until 1995 when Michael Reason took over. Daniel Swift was appointed as Music Director and Conductor in 1999 and the Niagara Symphony Orchestra became the orchestr in residence at Brock University. Laura Thomas was appointed as Associate Conductor 1n 2004. Daniel Swift’s resignation in 2008 began a search for a new Music Director. Bradley Thachuck was appointed as Music Director Designate and Principal Conductor in 2010. The orchestra is a fully professional, charitable institution with 52 members.The orchestra has also been led by Victor Feldbrill and Howard Cable. A junior symphony was first formed under Leonard Pearlman in 1960/61, but it wasn’t until 1965 that The St. Catharines Youth Orchestra was founded. The orchestra has consistently been an award winner in music festivals. The musicians range in age from 12 to 18 years. The highlight of the 1973-74 season was the orchestra’s participation in the first Canadian Festival of Youth Orchestras at The Banff School of Fine Arts. The St. Catharines Youth Orchestra has evolved from the St. Catharines School String and Brass Ensembles to a full scale symphony under the direction of conductor Paul van Dongen. In 1974 the Symphony House music program came into existence. It was 1976 when Richard Grymonpre was hired as the principal violinist of the St. Catharines Symphony Orchestra and conductor of the St. Catharines Youth Orchestra. Tak Ng Lai took over the position as conductor in 1978. Laura Thomas is currently the Music Director of The Niagara Youth Orchestra. Source: Niagara Symphony, Orchestra in Residence, Brock University website and notes from Niagara Symphony files

Three works on religious themes : psalmus 150, string quartet on the life of Saint John Paul II and symphony “The Redemption”

Dans cette dissertation, je présente trois pièces sur des thèmes religieux composées au cours de ma maîtrise, ainsi que leur analyse : Psalmus 150 pour chœur de jeunes à trois voix, chœur d'adultes à huit voix et orgue ou piano ; Quatuor à Cordes sur la vie de Saint Jean-Paul II ; et la Symphonie « La Rédemption » pour orchestre et chœur. Malgré les particularités de chacune, elles présentent des aspects communs. L'idée principale des compositions fut d'éviter la rupture avec la tradition tout en apportant des nouvelles idées aux pièces, et de souligner l'importance de ma recherche sur la beauté. À cet égard, certaines techniques contemporaines, ainsi que les sonorités médiévales des quintes et octaves parallèles, furent utilisées en accord avec un langage tonal / modal qui demeure la base des trois compositions. Le chant Grégorien fut aussi une importante caractéristique de ces compositions. Pour mieux comprendre les analyses des œuvres, deux techniques seront expliquées, la douce toile de dissonances linéaires et l'harmonie d'accords parfaits majeurs. L'analyse de chaque pièce est divisée en deux parties. La première est une vision générale et la deuxième est plus détaillée. À la fin, les connaissances acquises par la composition des ces œuvres seront résumées et l'importance intemporelle de la beauté sera réaffirmée.

Comments on “An ensemble cumulus convection parameterization with explicit cloud treatment”

Wagner and Graf (2010) derive a population evolution equation for an ensemble of convective plumes, an analogue with the Lotka–Volterra equation, from the energy equations for convective plumes provided by Arakawa and Schubert (1974). Although their proposal is interesting, as the present note shows, there are some problems with their derivation.

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

A key strategy to improve the skill of quantitative predictions of precipitation, as well as hazardous weather such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods is to exploit the use of observations of convective activity (e.g. from radar). In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) aimed at addressing the problems of forecasting localized weather events with relatively short predictability time scale and based on a 1.5 km grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Particular attention is given to the impact of using predicted observations of radar-derived precipitation intensity in the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) used within the EPS. Our initial results based on the use of a 24-member ensemble of forecasts for two summer case studies show that the convective-scale EPS produces fairly reliable forecasts of temperature, horizontal winds and relative humidity at 1 h lead time, as evident from the inspection of rank histograms. On the other hand, the rank histograms seem also to show that the EPS generates too much spread for forecasts of (i) surface pressure and (ii) surface precipitation intensity. These may indicate that for (i) the value of surface pressure observation error standard deviation used to generate surface pressure rank histograms is too large and for (ii) may be the result of non-Gaussian precipitation observation errors. However, further investigations are needed to better understand these findings. Finally, the inclusion of predicted observations of precipitation from radar in the 24-member EPS considered in this paper does not seem to improve the 1-h lead time forecast skill.

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed.

Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

The evidence provided by modelled assessments of future climate impact on flooding is fundamental to water resources and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from global and regional climate models (GCM/RCMs). However, challenges in representing precipitation events at catchment-scale resolution mean that decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs. Here the impacts on projected high flows of differing ensemble approaches and application of Model Output Statistics to RCM precipitation are evaluated while assessing climate change impact on flood hazard in the Upper Severn catchment in the UK. Various ensemble projections are used together with the HBV hydrological model with direct forcing and also compared to a response surface technique. We consider an ensemble of single-model RCM projections from the current UK Climate Projections (UKCP09); multi-model ensemble RCM projections from the European Union's FP6 ‘ENSEMBLES’ project; and a joint probability distribution of precipitation and temperature from a GCM-based perturbed physics ensemble. The ensemble distribution of results show that flood hazard in the Upper Severn is likely to increase compared to present conditions, but the study highlights the differences between the results from different ensemble methods and the strong assumptions made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future river discharge. The results underline the challenges in using the current generation of RCMs for local climate impact studies on flooding. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM

Synoptic activity over the Northern Hemisphere is evaluated in ensembles of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 simulations for recent climate conditions (20C) and for three climate scenarios (following SRES A1B, A2, B1). A close agreement is found between the simulations for present day climate and the respective results from reanalysis. Significant changes in the winter mid-tropospheric storm tracks are detected in all three scenario simulations. Ensemble mean climate signals are rather similar, with particularly large activity increases downstream of the Atlantic storm track over Western Europe. The magnitude of this signal is largely dependent on the imposed change in forcing. However, differences between individual ensemble members may be large. With respect to the surface cyclones, the scenario runs produce a reduction in cyclonic track density over the mid-latitudes, even in the areas with increasing mid-tropospheric activity. The largest decrease in track densities occurs at subtropical latitudes, e.g., over the Mediterranean Basin. An increase of cyclone intensities is detected for limited areas (e.g., near Great Britain and Aleutian Isles) for the A1B and A2 experiments. The changes in synoptic activity are associated with alterations of the Northern Hemisphere circulation and background conditions (blocking frequencies, jet stream). The North Atlantic Oscillation index also shows increased values with enhanced forcing. With respect to the effects of changing synoptic activity, the regional change in cyclone intensities is accompanied by alterations of the extreme surface winds, with increasing values over Great Britain, North and Baltic Seas, as well as the areas with vanishing sea ice, and decreases over much of the subtropics.

Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood forecasting system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and lead to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble numerical weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Grid-Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, which is based on the Xinanjiang model theory and the topographical information of each grid cell extracted from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE database (CMC, CMA, ECWMF, UKMO, NCEP) for flood forecast. This paper presents a case study using the coupled flood forecasting model on the Xixian catchment (a drainage area of 8826 km2) located in Henan province, China. A probabilistic discharge is provided as the end product of flood forecast. Results show that the association of the Grid-Xinanjiang model and the TIGGE database gives a promising tool for an early warning of flood events several days ahead.

Informing operational flood management with ensemble predictions: lessons from Sweden.

This paper highlights some communicative and institutional challenges to using ensemble prediction systems (EPS) in operational flood forecasting, warning, and civil protection. Focusing in particular on the Swedish experience, as part of the PREVIEW FP6 project, of applying EPS to operational flood forecasting, the paper draws on a wider set of site visits, interviews, and participant observation with flood forecasting centres and civil protection authorities (CPAs) in Sweden and 15 other European states to reflect on the comparative success of Sweden in enabling CPAs to make operational use of EPS for flood risk management. From that experience, the paper identifies four broader lessons for other countries interested in developing the operational capacity to make, communicate, and use EPS for flood forecasting and civil protection. We conclude that effective training and clear communication of EPS, while clearly necessary, are by no means sufficient to ensure effective use of EPS. Attention must also be given to overcoming the institutional obstacles to their use and to identifying operational choices for which EPS is seen to add value rather than uncertainty to operational decision making by CPAs.

An Ensemble Smoother with Error Estimates

A smoother introduced earlier by van Leeuwen and Evensen is applied to a problem in which real obser vations are used in an area with strongly nonlinear dynamics. The derivation is new , but it resembles an earlier derivation by van Leeuwen and Evensen. Again a Bayesian view is taken in which the prior probability density of the model and the probability density of the obser vations are combined to for m a posterior density . The mean and the covariance of this density give the variance-minimizing model evolution and its errors. The assumption is made that the prior probability density is a Gaussian, leading to a linear update equation. Critical evaluation shows when the assumption is justified. This also sheds light on why Kalman filters, in which the same ap- proximation is made, work for nonlinear models. By reference to the derivation, the impact of model and obser vational biases on the equations is discussed, and it is shown that Bayes’ s for mulation can still be used. A practical advantage of the ensemble smoother is that no adjoint equations have to be integrated and that error estimates are easily obtained. The present application shows that for process studies a smoother will give superior results compared to a filter , not only owing to the smooth transitions at obser vation points, but also because the origin of features can be followed back in time. Also its preference over a strong-constraint method is highlighted. Further more, it is argued that the proposed smoother is more efficient than gradient descent methods or than the representer method when error estimates are taken into account

Assimilation of Geosat Altimeter Data for the Agulhas Current Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Quasigeostrophic Model

The ring-shedding process in the Agulhas Current is studied using the ensemble Kalman filter to assimilate geosat altimeter data into a two-layer quasigeostrophic ocean model. The properties of the ensemble Kalman filter are further explored with focus on the analysis scheme and the use of gridded data. The Geosat data consist of 10 fields of gridded sea-surface height anomalies separated 10 days apart that are added to a climatic mean field. This corresponds to a huge number of data values, and a data reduction scheme must be applied to increase the efficiency of the analysis procedure. Further, it is illustrated how one can resolve the rank problem occurring when a too large dataset or a small ensemble is used.