Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: Drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/- 9.2) ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The mathematical modelling of the environmental performance of buildings as an aid in the design process

This thesis is a theoretical study of the accuracy and usability of models that attempt to represent the environmental control system of buildings in order to improve environmental design. These models have evolved from crude representations of a building and its environment through to an accurate representation of the dynamic characteristics of the environmental stimuli on buildings. Each generation of models has had its own particular influence on built form. This thesis analyses the theory, structure and data of such models in terms of their accuracy of simulation and therefore their validity in influencing built form. The models are also analysed in terms of their compatability with the design process and hence their ability to aid designers. The conclusions are that such models are unlikely to improve environmental performance since: a the models can only be applied to a limited number of building types, b they can only be applied to a restricted number of the characteristics of a design, c they can only be employed after many major environmental decisions have been made, d the data used in models is inadequate and unrepresentative, e models do not account for occupant interaction in environmental control. It is argued that further improvements in the accuracy of simulation of environmental control will not significantly improve environmental design. This is based on the premise that strategic environmental decisions are made at the conceptual stages of design whereas models influence the detailed stages of design. It is hypothesised that if models are to improve environmental design it must be through the analysis of building typologies which provides a method of feedback between models and the conceptual stages of design. Field studies are presented to describe a method by which typologies can be analysed and a theoretical framework is described which provides a basis for further research into the implications of the morphology of buildings on environmental design.

CFD-modelling of insulation debris transport phenomena in water flow

The investigation of insulation debris generation, transport and sedimentation becomes important with regard to reactor safety research for PWR and BWR, when considering the long-term behavior of emergency core cooling systems during all types of loss of coolant accidents (LOCA). The insulation debris released near the break during a LOCA incident consists of a mixture of disparate particle population that varies with size, shape, consistency and other properties. Some fractions of the released insulation debris can be transported into the reactor sump, where it may perturb/impinge on the emergency core cooling systems. Open questions of generic interest are the sedimentation of the insulation debris in a water pool, its possible re-suspension and transport in the sump water flow and the particle load on strainers and corresponding pressure drop. A joint research project on such questions is being performed in cooperation between the University of Applied Sciences Zittau/Görlitz and the Forschungszentrum Dresden-Rossendorf. The project deals with the experimental investigation of particle transport phenomena in coolant flow and the development of CFD models for its description. While the experiments are performed at the University at Zittau/Görlitz, the theoretical modeling efforts are concentrated at Forschungszentrum Dresden-Rossendorf. Whereas the paper Alt et al. is focused on the experiments in the present paper the basic concepts for CFD modeling are described and feasibility studies including the conceptual design of the experiments are presented.

A Knowledge-Oriented Technology of System-Objective Analysis and Modelling of Business-Systems

A new original method and CASE-tool of system analysis and modelling are represented. They are for the first time consistent with the requirements of object-oriented technology of informational systems design. They essentially facilitate the construction of organisational systems models and increase the quality of the organisational designing and basic technological processes of object application developing.

Modelling storage-driven connectivity between landscapes and riverscapes : towards a simple framework for long-term ecohydrological assessment

Acknowledgements: We thank Iain Malcolm of Marine Scotland Science for access to data from the Girnock and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency for historical stage-discharge relationships. CS contributions on this paper were in part supported by the NERC/JPI SIWA project (NE/M019896/1).

Modelling early transitions toward autonomous protocells.

252 p.

Conceptual Reference Model for Virtual Factory: Potentials for Collaborative Business

Part 11: Reference and Conceptual Models

Modelling and simulating retail management practices: a first approach

Multi-agent systems offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. We apply agent-based modeling and simulation to investigate a set of problems in a retail context. Specifically, we are working to understand the relationship between people management practices on the shop-floor and retail performance. Despite the fact we are working within a relatively novel and complex domain, it is clear that using an agent-based approach offers great potential for improving organizational capabilities in the future. Our multi-disciplinary research team has worked closely with one of the UK’s top ten retailers to collect data and build an understanding of shop-floor operations and the key actors in a department (customers, staff, and managers). Based on this case study we have built and tested our first version of a retail branch agent-based simulation model where we have focused on how we can simulate the effects of people management practices on customer satisfaction and sales. In our experiments we have looked at employee development and cashier empowerment as two examples of shop floor management practices. In this paper we describe the underlying conceptual ideas and the features of our simulation model. We present a selection of experiments we have conducted in order to validate our simulation model and to show its potential for answering “what-if” questions in a retail context. We also introduce a novel performance measure which we have created to quantify customers’ satisfaction with service, based on their individual shopping experiences.

Monitoring and modelling the morphodynamic evolution of a breached barrier beach system

Predicting the evolution of a coastal cell requires the identification of the key drivers of morphology. Soft coastlines are naturally dynamic but severe storm events and even human intervention can accelerate any changes that are occurring. However, when erosive events such as barrier breaching occur with no obvious contributory factors, a deeper understanding of the underlying coastal processes is required. Ideally conclusions on morphological drivers should be drawn from field data collection and remote sensing over a long period of time. Unfortunately, when the Rossbeigh barrier beach in Dingle Bay, County Kerry, began to erode rapidly in the early 2000’s, eventually leading to it breaching in 2008, no such baseline data existed. This thesis presents a study of the morphodynamic evolution of the Inner Dingle Bay coastal system. The study combines existing coastal zone analysis approaches with experimental field data collection techniques and a novel approach to long term morphodynamic modelling to predict the evolution of the barrier beach inlet system. A conceptual model describing the long term evolution of Inner Dingle Bay in 5 stages post breaching was developed. The dominant coastal processes driving the evolution of the coastal system were identified and quantified. A new methodology of long term process based numerical modelling approach to coastal evolution was developed. This method was used to predict over 20 years of coastal evolution in Inner Dingle Bay. On a broader context this thesis utilised several experimental coastal zone data collection and analysis methods such as ocean radar and grain size trend analysis. These were applied during the study and their suitability to a dynamic coastal system was assessed.

Advanced voxel-based CAD modelling for FSI simulations for automotive structures design

Additive Manufacturing (AM) is nowadays considered an important alternative to traditional manufacturing processes. AM technology shows several advantages in literature as design flexibility, and its use increases in automotive, aerospace and biomedical applications. As a systematic literature review suggests, AM is sometimes coupled with voxelization, mainly for representation and simulation purposes. Voxelization can be defined as a volumetric representation technique based on the model’s discretization with hexahedral elements, as occurs with pixels in the 2D image. Voxels are used to simplify geometric representation, store intricated details of the interior and speed-up geometric and algebraic manipulation. Compared to boundary representation used in common CAD software, voxel’s inherent advantages are magnified in specific applications such as lattice or topologically structures for visualization or simulation purposes. Those structures can only be manufactured with AM employment due to their complex topology. After an accurate review of the existent literature, this project aims to exploit the potential of the voxelization algorithm to develop optimized Design for Additive Manufacturing (DfAM) tools. The final aim is to manipulate and support mechanical simulations of lightweight and optimized structures that should be ready to be manufactured with AM with particular attention to automotive applications. A voxel-based methodology is developed for efficient structural simulation of lattice structures. Moreover, thanks to an optimized smoothing algorithm specific for voxel-based geometries, a topological optimized and voxelized structure can be transformed into a surface triangulated mesh file ready for the AM process. Moreover, a modified panel code is developed for simple CFD simulations using the voxels as a discretization unit to understand the fluid-dynamics performances of industrial components for preliminary aerodynamic performance evaluation. The developed design tools and methodologies perfectly fit the automotive industry’s needs to accelerate and increase the efficiency of the design workflow from the conceptual idea to the final product.

The Basic Reproduction Number Obtained From Jacobian And Next Generation Matrices - A Case Study Of Dengue Transmission Modelling.

The basic reproduction number is a key parameter in mathematical modelling of transmissible diseases. From the stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium, by applying Routh-Hurwitz criteria, a threshold is obtained, which is called the basic reproduction number. However, the application of spectral radius theory on the next generation matrix provides a different expression for the basic reproduction number, that is, the square root of the previously found formula. If the spectral radius of the next generation matrix is defined as the geometric mean of partial reproduction numbers, however the product of these partial numbers is the basic reproduction number, then both methods provide the same expression. In order to show this statement, dengue transmission modelling incorporating or not the transovarian transmission is considered as a case study. Also tuberculosis transmission and sexually transmitted infection modellings are taken as further examples.

Importance of considering a material micro-failure criterion in the numerical modelling of the shot peening process applied to parabolic leaf springs

Shot peening is a cold-working mechanical process in which a shot stream is propelled against a component surface. Its purpose is to introduce compressive residual stresses on component surfaces for increasing the fatigue resistance. This process is widely applied in springs due to the cyclical loads requirements. This paper presents a numerical modelling of shot peening process using the finite element method. The results are compared with experimental measurements of the residual stresses, obtained by the X-rays diffraction technique, in leaf springs submitted to this process. Furthermore, the results are compared with empirical and numerical correlations developed by other authors.

A contribution for thermoeconomic modelling: A methodology proposal

This work presents a thermoeconomic optimization methodology for the analysis and design of energy systems. This methodology involves economic aspects related to the exergy conception, in order to develop a tool to assist the equipment selection, operation mode choice as well as to optimize the thermal plants design. It also presents the concepts related to exergy in a general scope and in thermoeconomics which combines the thermal sciences principles (thermodynamics, heat transfer, and fluid mechanics) and the economic engineering in order to rationalize energy systems investment decisions, development and operation. Even in this paper, it develops a thermoeconomic methodology through the use of a simple mathematical model, involving thermodynamics parameters and costs evaluation, also defining the objective function as the exergetic production cost. The optimization problem evaluation is developed for two energy systems. First is applied to a steam compression refrigeration system and then to a cogeneration system using backpressure steam turbine. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermal error evaluation and modelling of a CNC cylindrical grinding machine

With the relentless quest for improved performance driving ever tighter tolerances for manufacturing, machine tools are sometimes unable to meet the desired requirements. One option to improve the tolerances of machine tools is to compensate for their errors. Among all possible sources of machine tool error, thermally induced errors are, in general for newer machines, the most important. The present work demonstrates the evaluation and modelling of the behaviour of the thermal errors of a CNC cylindrical grinding machine during its warm-up period.

Performance of the Equivalent Reservoir Modelling Technique for Multi-Reservoir Hydropower Systems

This paper investigates the validity of a simplified equivalent reservoir representation of a multi-reservoir hydroelectric system for modelling its optimal operation for power maximization. This simplification, proposed by Arvanitidis and Rosing (IEEE Trans Power Appar Syst 89(2):319-325, 1970), imputes a potential energy equivalent reservoir with energy inflows and outflows. The hydroelectric system is also modelled for power maximization considering individual reservoir characteristics without simplifications. Both optimization models employed MINOS package for solution of the non-linear programming problems. A comparison between total optimized power generation over the planning horizon by the two methods shows that the equivalent reservoir is capable of producing satisfactory power estimates with less than 6% underestimation. The generation and total reservoir storage trajectories along the planning horizon obtained by equivalent reservoir method, however, presented significant discrepancies as compared to those found in the detailed modelling. This study is motivated by the fact that Brazilian generation system operations are based on the equivalent reservoir method as part of the power dispatch procedures. The potential energy equivalent reservoir is an alternative which eliminates problems with the dimensionality of state variables in a dynamic programming model.