Supporting Families through Short-Term Foster Care: An Essay Review

Aldgate, J. and Bradley, M. (1999). Supporting families through short-term fostering. London: The Stationery Office. This essay reviews a British qualitative study of short-term foster care from the perspectives of birth parents, children, foster parents, and social workers. Respondents highlighted the value of short-term foster care as a family support service and also offered many recommendations for improving service delivery. The study provides useful implications for restructuring child welfare services in the United States and for promoting cross-national collaboration in future research activities in the area of child and family services.

Copepod vital rates under CO2-induced acidification: a calanoid species and a cyclopoid species under short-term exposures

Although copepods have been considered tolerant against the direct influence of the ocean acidification (OA) projected for the end of the century, some recent studies have challenged this view. Here, we have examined the direct impact of short-term exposure to a pCO2/pH level relevant for the year 2100 (pHNBS, control: 8.18, low pH: 7.78), on the physiological performance of two representative marine copepods: the calanoid Acartia grani and the cyclopoid Oithona davisae. Adults of both species, from laboratory cultures, were preconditioned for four consecutive days in algal suspensions (Akashiwo sanguinea) prepared with filtered sea water pre-adjusted to the targeted pH values via CO2 bubbling. We measured the feeding and respiratory activity and reproductive output of those pre-conditioned females. The largely unaffected fatty acid composition of the prey offered between OA treatments and controls supports the absence in the study of indirect OA effects (i.e. changes of food nutritional quality). Our results show no direct effect of acidification on the vital rates examined in either copepod species. Our findings are compared with results from previous short- and long-term manipulative experiments on other copepod species.

Long-term but not short-term plasticity at mossy fiber synapses is impaired in neural cell adhesion molecule-deficient mice

Cell adhesion molecules (CAMs) are known to be involved in a variety of developmental processes that play key roles in the establishment of synaptic connectivity during embryonic development, but recent evidence implicates the same molecules in synaptic plasticity of the adult. In the present study, we have used neural CAM (NCAM)-deficient mice, which have learning and behavioral deficits, to evaluate NCAM function in the hippocampal mossy fiber system. Morphological studies demonstrated that fasciculation and laminar growth of mossy fibers were strongly affected, leading to innervation of CA3 pyramidal cells at ectopic sites, whereas individual mossy fiber boutons appeared normal. Electrophysiological recordings performed in hippocampal slice preparations revealed that both basal synaptic transmission and two forms of short-term plasticity, i.e., paired-pulse facilitation and frequency facilitation, were normal in mice lacking all forms of NCAM. However, long-term potentiation of glutamatergic excitatory synapses after brief trains of repetitive stimulation was abolished. Taken together, these results strongly suggest that in the hippocampal mossy fiber system, NCAM is essential both for correct axonal growth and synaptogenesis and for long-term changes in synaptic strength.

Very short-term plasticity in hippocampal synapses

Hippocampal pyramidal neurons often fire in bursts of action potentials with short interspike intervals (2–10 msec). These high-frequency bursts may play a critical role in the functional behavior of hippocampal neurons, but synaptic plasticity at such short times has not been carefully studied. To study synaptic modulation at very short time intervals, we applied pairs of stimuli with interpulse intervals ranging from 7 to 50 msec to CA1 synapses isolated by the method of minimal stimulation in hippocampal slices. We have identified three components of short-term paired-pulse modulation, including (i) a form of synaptic depression manifested after a prior exocytotic event, (ii) a form of synaptic depression that does not depend on a prior exocytotic event and that we postulate is based on inactivation of presynaptic N-type Ca2+ channels, and (iii) a dependence of paired-pulse facilitation on the exocytotic history of the synapse.

Cardiopulmonary adaptation to short-term high altitude exposure in adult Fontan patients

OBJECTIVE High altitude-related hypoxia induces pulmonary vasoconstriction. In Fontan patients without a contractile subpulmonary ventricle, an increase in pulmonary artery pressure is expected to decrease circulatory output and reduce exercise capacity. This study investigates the direct effects of short-term high altitude exposure on pulmonary blood flow (PBF) and exercise capacity in Fontan patients. METHODS 16 adult Fontan patients (mean age 28±7 years, 56% female) and 14 matched controls underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing with measurement of PBF with a gas rebreathing system at 540 m (low altitude) and at 3454 m (high altitude) within 12 weeks. RESULTS PBF at rest and at exercise was higher in controls than in Fontan patients, both at low and high altitude. PBF increased twofold in Fontan patients and 2.8-fold in the control group during submaximal exercise, with no significant difference between low and high altitude (p=0.290). A reduction in peak oxygen uptake at high compared with low altitude was observed in Fontan patients (22.8±5.1 and 20.5±3.8 mL/min/kg, p<0.001) and the control group (35.0±7.4 and 29.1±6.5 mL/min/kg, p<0.001). The reduction in exercise capacity was less pronounced in Fontan patients compared with controls (9±12% vs 17±8%, p=0.005). No major adverse clinical event was observed. CONCLUSIONS Short-term high altitude exposure has no negative impact on PBF and exercise capacity in Fontan patients when compared with controls, and was clinically well tolerated. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT02237274: Results.

Using the interaural time difference and cross-correlation to localise short-term complex noises

The mammalian binaural cue of interaural time difference (ITD) and cross-correlation have long been used to determine the point of origin of a sound source. The ITD can be defined as the different points in time at which a sound from a single location arrives at each individual ear [1]. From this time difference, the brain can calculate the angle of the sound source in relation to the head [2]. Cross-correlation compares the similarity of each channel of a binaural waveform producing the time lag or offset required for both channels to be in phase with one another. This offset corresponds to the maximum value produced by the cross-correlation function and can be used to determine the ITD and thus the azimuthal angle θ of the original sound source. However, in indoor environments, cross-correlation has been known to have problems with both sound reflections and reverberations. Additionally, cross-correlation has difficulties with localising short-term complex noises when they occur during a longer duration waveform, i.e. in the presence of background noise. The crosscorrelation algorithm processes the entire waveform and the short-term complex noise can be ignored. This paper presents a technique using thresholding which enables higher-localisation abilities for short-term complex sounds in the midst of background noise. To determine the success of this thresholding technique, twenty-five sounds were recorded in a dynamic and echoic environment. The twenty-five sounds consist of hand-claps, finger-clicks and speech. The proposed technique was compared to the regular cross-correlation function for the same waveforms, and an average of the azimuthal angles determined for each individual sample. The sound localisation ability for all twenty-five sound samples is as follows: average of the sampled angles using cross-correlation: 44%; cross-correlation technique with thresholding: 84%. From these results, it is clear that this proposed technique is very successful for the localisation of short-term complex sounds in the midst of background noise and in a dynamic and echoic indoor environment.

Is the supply of long-term debt independent of the term premia? Evidence from Portugal

An important assumption in the statistical analysis of the financial market effects of the central bank’s large scale asset purchase program is that the "long-term debt stock variables were exogenous to term premia". We test this assumption for a small open economy in a currency union over the period 2000M3 to 2015M10, via the determinants of short- term financing relative to long-term financing. Empirical estimations indicate that the maturity composition of debt does not respond to the level of interest rate or to the term structure. These findings suggest a lower adherence to the cost minimization mandate of debt management. However, we find that volatility and relative market size respectively decrease and increase short-term financing relative to long-term financing, while it decreases with an increase in government indebtedness.

Long-term and Short-term Forecast Models for Poaceae (Grass) Pollen in Poznan, Poland, Constructed Using Regression Analysis

Airborne concentrations of Poaceae pollen have been monitored in Poznań for more than ten years and the length of the dataset is now considered sufficient for statistical analysis. The objective of this paper is to produce long-range forecasts that predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season (such as the start, peak and end dates of the grass pollen season) as well as short-term forecasts that predict daily variations in grass pollen counts for the next day or next few days throughout the main grass pollen season. The method of forecasting was regression analysis. Correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between grass pollen counts and the factors that affect its production, release and dispersal. The models were constructed with data from 1994-2004 and tested on data from 2005 and 2006. The forecast models predicted the start of the grass pollen season to within 2 days and achieved 61% and 70% accuracy on a scale of 1-4 when forecasting variations in daily grass pollen counts in 2005 and 2006 respectively. This study has emphasised how important the weather during the few weeks or months preceding pollination is to grass pollen production, and draws attention to the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability (indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation) when constructing forecast models for allergenic pollen.

Short-term single treatment of chemotherapy results in the enrichment of ovarian cancer stem cell-like cells leading to an increased tumor burden

Over 80% of women diagnosed with advanced-stage ovarian cancer die as a result of disease recurrence due to failure of chemotherapy treatment. In this study, using two distinct ovarian cancer cell lines (epithelial OVCA 433 and mesenchymal HEY) we demonstrate enrichment in a population of cells with high expression of CSC markers at the protein and mRNA levels in response to cisplatin, paclitaxel and the combination of both. We also demonstrate a significant enhancement in the sphere forming abilities of ovarian cancer cells in response to chemotherapy drugs. The results of these in vitro findings are supported by in vivo mouse xenograft models in which intraperitoneal transplantation of cisplatin or paclitaxel-treated residual HEY cells generated significantly higher tumor burden compared to control untreated cells. Both the treated and untreated cells infiltrated the organs of the abdominal cavity. In addition, immunohistochemical studies on mouse tumors injected with cisplatin or paclitaxel treated residual cells displayed higher staining for the proliferative antigen Ki67, oncogeneic CA125, epithelial E-cadherin as well as cancer stem cell markers such as Oct4 and CD117, compared to mice injected with control untreated cells. These results suggest that a short-term single treatment of chemotherapy leaves residual cells that are enriched in CSC-like traits, resulting in an increased metastatic potential. The novel findings in this study are important in understanding the early molecular mechanisms by which chemoresistance and subsequent relapse may be triggered after the first line of chemotherapy treatment.

Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Flexible selection of a single treatment incorporating short-term endpoint information in a phase II/III clinical trial

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials in which an experimental treatment is selected at an interim analysis have been the focus of much recent research interest. Many of the methods proposed are based on the group sequential approach. This paper considers designs of this type in which the treatment selection can be based on short-term endpoint information for more patients than have primary endpoint data available. We show that in such a case, the familywise type I error rate may be inflated if previously proposed group sequential methods are used and the treatment selection rule is not specified in advance. A method is proposed to avoid this inflation by considering the treatment selection that maximises the conditional error given the data available at the interim analysis. A simulation study is reported that illustrates the type I error rate inflation and compares the power of the new approach with two other methods: a combination testing approach and a group sequential method that does not use the short-term endpoint data, both of which also strongly control the type I error rate. The new method is also illustrated through application to a study in Alzheimer's disease. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Short-term temporal changes of bare soil CO2 fluxes after tillage described by first-order decay models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

Coupling short-term (B2G model) and long-term (g-function) models for ground source heat exchanger simulation in TRNSYS. Application in a real installation

Ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems represent one of the most promising techniques for heating and cooling in buildings. These systems use the ground as a heat source/sink, allowing a better efficiency thanks to the low variations of the ground temperature along the seasons. The ground-source heat exchanger (GSHE) then becomes a key component for optimizing the overall performance of the system. Moreover, the short-term response related to the dynamic behaviour of the GSHE is a crucial aspect, especially from a regulation criteria perspective in on/off controlled GSHP systems. In this context, a novel numerical GSHE model has been developed at the Instituto de Ingeniería Energética, Universitat Politècnica de València. Based on the decoupling of the short-term and the long-term response of the GSHE, the novel model allows the use of faster and more precise models on both sides. In particular, the short-term model considered is the B2G model, developed and validated in previous research works conducted at the Instituto de Ingeniería Energética. For the long-term, the g-function model was selected, since it is a previously validated and widely used model, and presents some interesting features that are useful for its combination with the B2G model. The aim of the present paper is to describe the procedure of combining these two models in order to obtain a unique complete GSHE model for both short- and long-term simulation. The resulting model is then validated against experimental data from a real GSHP installation.