Dynamic Analysis and Pattern Visualization of Forest Fires

This paper analyses forest fires in the perspective of dynamical systems. Forest fires exhibit complex correlations in size, space and time, revealing features often present in complex systems, such as the absence of a characteristic length-scale, or the emergence of long range correlations and persistent memory. This study addresses a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, during the period from 1980 up to 2012. The data is analysed in an annual basis, modelling the occurrences as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. First, we consider mutual information to correlate annual patterns. We use visualization trees, generated by hierarchical clustering algorithms, in order to compare and to extract relationships among the data. Second, we adopt the Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) visualization tool. MDS generates maps where each object corresponds to a point. Objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to identify forest fire patterns.

Fractional State Space Analysis of Economy Systems

This paper examines modern economic growth according to the multidimensional scaling (MDS) method and state space portrait (SSP) analysis. Electing GDP per capita as the main indicator for economic growth and prosperity, the long-run perspective from 1870 to 2010 identifies the main similarities among 34 world partners’ modern economic growth and exemplifies the historical waving mechanics of the largest world economy, the USA. MDS reveals two main clusters among the European countries and their old offshore territories, and SSP identifies the Great Depression as a mild challenge to the American global performance, when compared to the Second World War and the 2008 crisis.

Multidimensional Scaling Analysis of Stock Market Indexes

This paper applies multidimensional scaling techniques and Fourier transform for visualizing possible time-varying correlations between 25 stock market values. The method is useful for observing clusters of stock markets with similar behavior.

Compositional and functional analysis of polycomb target chromatin

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Molecular Biology

Building clusters for CRM strategies by mining airlines customer data

Trabalho de Projeto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Cluster analysis and segmentation of Global M&A transactions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

How can clusters help in the product type choice? The case of a specialized retail store

This work project (WP) is a study about a clustering strategy for Sport Zone. The general cluster study’s objective is to create groups such that within each group the individuals are similar to each other, but should be different among groups. The clusters creation is a mix of common sense, trial and error and some statistical supporting techniques. Our particular objective is to support category managers to better define the product type to be displayed in the stores’ shelves by doing store clusters. This research was carried out for Sport Zone, and comprises an objective definition, a literature review, the clustering activity itself, some factor analysis and a discriminant analysis to better frame our work. Together with this quantitative part, a survey addressed to category managers to better understand their key drivers, for choosing the type of product of each store, was carried out. Based in a non-random sample of 65 stores with data referring to 2013, the final result was the choice of 6 store clusters (Figure 1) which were individually characterized as the main outcome of this work. In what relates to our selected variables, all were important for the distinction between clusters, which proves the adequacy of their choice. The interpretation of the results gives category managers a tool to understand which products best fit the clustered stores. Furthermore, as a side finding thanks to the clusterization, a STP (Segmentation, Targeting and Positioning) was initiated, being this WP the first steps of a continuous process.

Temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of visceral leishmaniasis in humans in the City of Birigui, State of São Paulo, from 1999 to 2012

Introduction In 1999, Birigui and Araçatuba were the first municipalities in the State of São Paulo to present autochthonous cases of visceral leishmaniasis in humans (VLH). The aim of this study was to describe the temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal behaviors of VLH in Birigui. Methods Secondary data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System from 1999 to 2012. The incidence, mortality and case fatality rates by sex and age were calculated. The cases of VLH were geocoded and grouped according to census tracts. Local empirical Bayesian incidence rates were calculated. The existence of spatial and spatiotemporal clusters was investigated using SaTScan software. Results There were 156 confirmed cases of autochthonous VLH. The incidence rate was higher in the 0-4-year-old children, and the mortality and case fatality rates were higher in people aged 60 years and older. The peaks of incidence occurred in 2006 and 2011. The Bayesian rates identified the presence of VLH in all of the census tracts in the municipality; however, spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were found in the central area of the municipality. Conclusions Birigui, located in the Araçatuba region, has recently experienced increasing numbers of VLH cases; this increase is contrary to the behavior observed over the entire region, which has shown a decreasing trend in the number of VLH cases. The observations that the highest incidence is in children 0-4 years old and the highest mortality is in people 60 years and older are in agreement with the expected patterns of VLH.

Pulmonary tuberculosis in São Luis, State of Maranhão, Brazil: space and space-time risk clusters for death (2008-2012)

INTRODUCTION: The objective was to identify space and space-time risk clusters for the occurrence of deaths in a priority city for the control of tuberculosis (TB) in the Brazilian Northeast. METHODS: Ecological research was undertaken in the City of São Luis/Maranhão. Cases were considered that resulted in deaths in the population living in the urban region of the city with pulmonary TB as the basic cause, between 2008 and 2012. To detect space and space-time clusters of deaths due to pulmonary TB in the census sectors, the spatial analysis scan technique was used. RESULTS: In total, 221 deaths by TB occurred, 193 of which were due to pulmonary TB. Approximately 95% of the cases (n=183) were geocoded. Two significant spatial clusters were identified, the first of which showed a mortality rate of 5.8 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year and a high relative risk of 3.87. The second spatial cluster showed a mortality rate of 0.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year and a low relative risk of 0.10. A significant cluster was observed in the space-time analysis between 11/01/2008 and 04/30/2011, with a mortality rate of 8.10 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year and a high relative risk (3.0). CONCLUSIONS: The knowledge of priority sites for the occurrence of deaths can support public management to reduce inequities in the access to health services and permit an optimization of the resources and teams in the control of pulmonary TB, providing support for specific strategies focused on the most vulnerable populations.

Fractional state space analysis of economic systems

This paper examines modern economic growth according to the multidimensional scaling (MDS) method and state space portrait (SSP) analysis. Electing GDP per capita as the main indicator for economic growth and prosperity, the long-run perspective from 1870 to 2010 identifies the main similarities among 34 world partners’ modern economic growth and exemplifies the historical waving mechanics of the largest world economy, the USA. MDS reveals two main clusters among the European countries and their old offshore territories, and SSP identifies the Great Depression as a mild challenge to the American global performance, when compared to the Second World War and the 2008 crisis.

Molecular characterization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from Tehran, Iran by restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis and spoligotyping

Abstract: INTRODUCTION Characterization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) isolates by DNA fingerprinting has contributed to tuberculosis (TB) control. The aim of this study was to determine the genetic diversity of MTB isolates from Tehran province in Iran. METHODS MTB isolates from 60 Iranian and 10 Afghan TB patients were fingerprinted by standard IS6110-restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis and spoligotyping. RESULTS The copy number of IS6110 ranged from 10-24 per isolate. The isolates were classified into 22 clusters showing ≥ 80% similarity by RFLP analysis. Fourteen multidrug-resistant (MDR) isolates were grouped into 4 IS6110-RFLP clusters, with 10 isolates [71% (95% CI: 45-89%)] in 1 cluster, suggesting a possible epidemiological linkage. Eighteen Iranian isolates showed ≥ 80% similarity with Afghan isolates. There were no strains with identical fingerprints. Spoligotyping of 70 isolates produced 23 distinct patterns. Sixty (85.7%) isolates were grouped into 13 clusters, while the remaining 10 isolates (14.2%) were not clustered. Ural (formerly Haarlem4) (n = 22, 31.4%) was the most common family followed by Central Asian strain (CAS) (n = 18, 25.7%) and T (n = 9, 12.8%) families. Only 1strain was characterized as having the Beijing genotype. Among 60 Iranian and 10 Afghan MTB isolates, 25% (95% CI: 16-37) and 70% (95% CI: 39-89) were categorized as Ural lineage, respectively. CONCLUSIONS A higher prevalence of Ural family MTB isolates among Afghan patients than among Iranian patients suggests the possible transmission of this lineage following the immigration of Afghans to Iran.

Analysis of a Local HIV-1 Epidemic in Portugal Highlights Established Transmission of non-B and -G Subtypes

Existing data supports Portugal as the Western Europe country with highest HIV-1 subtype diversity. However, detailed phylogenetic studies of Portuguese HIV-1 epidemics are still scarce. Thus, our main goal was to analyze the phylodynamics of a local HIV-1 infection in the Portuguese region of Minho. Molecular epidemiological analysis was applied to data from 289 HIV-1 infected individuals followed in the reference Hospital of the province of Minho, Portugal, in which isolated viruses had been sequenced between 2000 and 2012. Viruses of the G (29.1%) and B (27.0%) subtypes were the most frequent, followed by recombinant forms (17.6%), C (14.5%), F1 (7.3%) and A1 (4.2%) subtypes. Multinomial logistic regression revealed that the odds of being infected with A1 and F1 subtype increased over the years when compared with B, G, C or recombinant viruses. As expected, polyphyletic patterns suggesting multiple and old introductions of subtypes B and G were found. However, transmission clusters of non-B and -G viruses among native individuals were also found with the dates of the most recent common ancestor estimated to the early 2000s. Our study supports that the HIV-1 subtype diversity in the Portuguese region of Minho is high and has been increasing in a manner that is apparently driven by factors other than immigration and international travel. Infections with A1 and F1 viruses in the region of Minho are becoming established and were mainly found in sexually transmitted clusters, reinforcing the need for more efficacious control measures targeting this infection route.

Cerebral perfusion and automated individual analysis using SPECT among an obsessive-compulsive population

OBJECTIVE: To make individual assessments using automated quantification methodology in order to screen for perfusion abnormalities in cerebral SPECT examinations among a sample of subjects with OCD. METHODS: Statistical parametric mapping (SPM) was used to compare 26 brain SPECT images from patients with OCD individually with an image bank of 32 normal subjects, using the statistical threshold of p < 0.05 (corrected for multiple comparisons at the level of individual voxels or clusters). The maps were analyzed, and regions presenting voxels that remained above this threshold were sought. RESULTS: Six patients from a sample of 26 OCD images showed abnormalities at cluster or voxel level, considering the criteria described above, which represented 23.07%. However, seven images from the normal group of 32 were also indicated as cases of perfusional abnormality, representing 21.8% of the sample. CONCLUSION: The automated quantification method was not considered to be a useful tool for clinical practice, for analyses complementary to visual inspection.

Resonancia Magnética Nuclear aplicada al estudio de nuevos sistemas farmacéuticos y biológicos, complejos poliméricos y conjuntos de espines modelo. Nuclear Magnetic Resonance applied to the study of new pharmaceutical and biological systems, polymeric complexes and model spin clusters.

El presente proyecto plantea utilizar integralmente la técnica de Resonancia Magnética Nuclear en sólidos como un medio experimental que permite entender fenómenos de la física fundamental, como así también realizar aplicaciones de interés en el campo de la química, los desarrollos farmacéuticos y la biología. Novedosas técnicas experimentales serán empleadas, en conjunción con otras más tradicionales, en la caracterización de nuevas estructuras poliméricas acomplejadas a metales, membranas biológicas y compuestos de interés farmacéutico en vías de desarrollo, los cuales presentan el fenómeno de polimorfismo . Esto se llevará a cabo complementando los resultados de RMN en sólidos con técnicas tanto espectroscópicas como analíticas (Infrarrojo, Difracción de Rayos X, Calorimetría, RMN en solución) y trabajo interdisciplinario. Paralelamente al desarrollo de estos temas, profundizaremos mediante investigación básica, en la compresión de la dinámica cuántica y el surgimiento de la irreversibilidad en sistemas de espines nucleares. Observaremos en particular la generación, evolución y control de las coherencias cuánticas múltiples en sistemas cuánticos abiertos, lo cual nos da información sobre tamaño de clusters de espines. Esto permitirá la correcta implementación de secuencias de pulsos sofisticadas, como así también desarrollar nuevos métodos de medición aplicados a la caracterización estructural y a la dinámica molecular de sólidos complejos. Debemos resaltar que este proyecto está conectado con aspectos tanto básicos como aplicados de la RMN en sólidos como técnica experimental, la cual se desarrolla en el país únicamente en FaMAF-UNC. Se nutre además de trabajo multidisciplinario promoviendo la colaboración con investigadores y becarios de distintas áreas (física, química, farmacia, biología) provenientes de distintos puntos del país. Finalmente podemos afirmar que este plan impulsa la aplicación de la física básica proyectada a diferentes áreas del conocimiento, en el ámbito de la provincia de Córdoba. The aim of the present proyect is to use Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) as a complete techique that allows the understanding of fundamental physics phenomena and, at the same time, it leads to important applications in the fields of chemistry, pharmaceutical developments and biology. New experiments will be used together with traditional ones, in the characterization of new metal-polymer complexes, biological membranes and pharmaceutical compounds, some of them presenting polymorfism. NMR experiments will be complemented with diverse spectroscopic and analytical techniques: Infrared, X ray Diffraction, Thermal Analysis, solution NMR, as well as multidisciplinary investigation. Additionally, the present proyect plans to study in depth several aspects of quantum dynamics phenomena and decoherence in nuclear spin systems. The present proyect is connected with basic and applied aspects of the solid state NMR technique, developed in our country, only at FaMAF-UNC. It is is composed by multidisciplinary work and it promotes the collaboration with researchers and students coming from different fields (physics, chemistry, pharmaceutical developments, biology) and different points of our country.

Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in the Elderly: Comparative Analysis of Two Five-year Periods

Background:Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in Brazil. The better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the Brazilian elderly population is essential to support more appropriate health actions for each region of the country.Objective:To describe and to compare geospatially the rates of mortality from cardiovascular disease in elderly individuals living in Brazil by gender in two 5-year periods: 1996 to 2000 and 2006 to 2010.Methods:This is an ecological study, for which rates of mortality were obtained from DATASUS and the population rates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). An average mortality rate for cardiovascular disease in elderly by gender was calculated for each period. The spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by TerraView 4.2.0 through global Moran index and the formation of clusters by the index of local Moran-LISA.Results:There was an increase, in the second 5-year period, in the mortality rates in the Northeast and North regions, parallel to a decrease in the South, South-East and Midwest regions. Moreover, there was the formation of clusters with high mortality rates in the second period in Roraima among females, and in Ceará, Pernambuco and Roraima among males.Conclusion:The increase in mortality rates in the North and Northeast regions is probably related to the changing profile of mortality and improvement in the quality of information, a result of the increase in surveillance and health care measures in these regions.