XRF measurements, CNS content, grain size and sediment accumulation of sediment core NC_08/01 from lake Nam Co, Tibet

Decadal to sub-decadal variability of inflow, evaporation and biological productivity derived from Lake Nam Co was used to reconstruct hydrological changes for the past ca. 24 k cal a BP. The timing of these variations corresponds to known climatic shifts on the Northern Hemisphere. After a dry and cold Last Glacial Maximum the lake level of Nam Co initially rose at ca. 20 k cal a BP. Moist but further cold conditions between ca. 16.2 and 14 k cal a BP correspond to Heinrich Event 1. A warm and moist phase between ca. 14 and 13 k cal a BP is expressed as a massive enhancement in inflow and biological productivity and might be associated with a first intensification of the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon coinciding with the Bølling-Allerød complex. A twostep decrease in inflow and a contemporaneous decline in biological productivity until ca. 11.8 k cal a BP points to cool and dry conditions during the Younger Dryas. Lake levels peak at ca. 9.4 k cal a BP, although hydrological conditions remain relatively stable during the Holocene with only low-amplitude variations observed.

Oxygen isotope stratigraphy Ojplus03 for the last 838,000 years

Global warming is real and has been with us for at least two decades. Questions arise regarding the response of the ocean to greenhouse forcing, including expectations for changes in ocean circulation, in uptake of excess carbon dioxide, and in upwelling activity. The large climate variations of the ice ages, within the last million years, offer the opportunity to study responses of the ocean to climate change. A histogram of sealevel positions for the last 700,000 years (based on a new d/sup 18/O stratigraphy here compiled) shows that the present is near the margin of the range of fluctuations, with only 6 percent of positions indicating a warmer climate. Thus, the future will be largely outside of experience with regard to fluctuations of the recent geologic past. The same is true for greenhouse forcing. Our inability to explain sudden climate change in the past, including the rapid rise of carbon dioxide during deglaciation, and differences in ocean productivity between glacial and interglacial conditions, demonstrates a lack of understanding that makes predictions suspect. This is the lesson from ice age studies.

Modern major element concentrations and ratios measured in Atlantic surface sediments (36°N-49°S)

Numerous studies use major element concentrations measured on continental margin sediments to reconstruct terrestrial climate variations. The choice and interpretation of climate proxies however differ from site to site. Here we map the concentrations of major elements (Ca, Fe, Al, Si, Ti, K) in Atlantic surface sediments (36°N-49°S) to assess the factors influencing the geochemistry of Atlantic hemipelagic sediments and the potential of elemental ratios to reconstruct different terrestrial climate regimes. High concentrations of terrigenous elements and low Ca concentrations along the African and South American margins reflect the dominance of terrigenous input in these regions. Single element concentrations and elemental ratios including Ca (e.g., Fe/Ca) are too sensitive to dilution effects (enhanced biological productivity, carbonate dissolution) to allow reliable reconstructions of terrestrial climate. Other elemental ratios reflect the composition of terrigenous material and mirror the climatic conditions within the continental catchment areas. The Atlantic distribution of Ti/Al supports its use as a proxy for eolian versus fluvial input in regions of dust deposition that are not affected by the input of mafic rock material. The spatial distributions of Al/Si and Fe/K reflect the relative input of intensively weathered material from humid regions versus slightly weathered particles from drier areas. High biogenic opal input however influences the Al/Si ratio. Fe/K is sensitive to the input of mafic material and the topography of Andean river drainage basins. Both ratios are suitable to reconstruct African and South American climatic zones characterized by different intensities of chemical weathering in well-understood environmental settings.

Planting times and spacing of carrot crops in the São Francisco Valley, Pernambuco state, Brazil.

Climate variations over the year and plant density tend to strongly affect the agronomic performance of carrot crops. Thus, the objective of this work was to evaluate the performance of the cultivar Brasilia in crops under mild (winter) and high (summer) temperatures. An experiment was conducted from May 2011 to February 2012, using a randomized block design and treatments arranged in split plot, with three replications. The plots consisted of planting seasons (winter and summer) and the subplots of plant spacing (4, 6, 8 and 10 cm). The height of plants presented a linear decrease, from 53.4 to 51.0 cm, with an increase in spacing in summer planting, while in winter the greatest height (50.7 cm) was obtained with spacing of 8.0 cm between plants. The lowest commercial yields were found in summer crops and with the widest spacing between plants. The smallest spacing between plants (4 cm) had yields of 45.9 Mg ha -1in summer and of 63.1 Mg ha-1 in winter crops. The winter planting had higher fresh root weight (89.9 g root - 1 ) compared to the summer (81.4 g root - 1 ), reaching higher weight with increasing plant spacing. Higher yields are achieved with plant spacing of 4 cm during winter. The carrot can be grown throughout the year in the Submiddle of the São Francisco Valley.

Data analysis and hydrological modelling of rainfall and discharge extremes along the Tione River: implications for the design of water structures

There are many natural events that can negatively affect the urban ecosystem, but weather-climate variations are certainly among the most significant. The history of settlements has been characterized by extreme events like earthquakes and floods, which repeat themselves at different times, causing extensive damage to the built heritage on a structural and urban scale. Changes in climate also alter various climatic subsystems, changing rainfall regimes and hydrological cycles, increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events (heavy rainfall).  From an hydrological risk perspective, it is crucial to understand future events that could occur and their magnitude in order to design safer infrastructures. Unfortunately, it is not easy to understand future scenarios as the complexity of climate is enormous.  For this thesis, precipitation and discharge extremes were primarily used as data sources. It is important to underline that the two data sets are not separated: changes in rainfall regime, due to climate change, could significantly affect overflows into receiving water bodies. It is imperative that we understand and model climate change effects on water structures to support the development of adaptation strategies.   The main purpose of this thesis is to search for suitable water structures for a road located along the Tione River. Therefore, through the analysis of the area from a hydrological point of view, we aim to guarantee the safety of the infrastructure over time.   The observations made have the purpose to underline how models such as a stochastic one can improve the quality of an analysis for design purposes, and influence choices.

The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate

Analysis of single forcing runs from CMIP5 (the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) simulations shows that the mid-twentieth century temperature hiatus, and the coincident decrease in precipitation, is likely to have been influenced strongly by anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Models that include a representation of the indirect effect of aerosol better reproduce inter-decadal variability in historical global-mean near-surface temperatures, particularly the cooling in the 1950s and 1960s, compared to models with representation of the aerosol direct effect only. Models with the indirect effect also show a more pronounced decrease in precipitation during this period, which is in better agreement with observations, and greater inter-decadal variability in the inter-hemispheric temperature difference. This study demonstrates the importance of representing aerosols, and their indirect effects, in general circulation models, and suggests that inter-model diversity in aerosol burden and representation of aerosol–cloud interaction can produce substantial variation in simulations of climate variability on multi decadal timescales.

Long-term variations in the open solar flux and possible links to Earth’s climate

Recent paleoclimate studies provide strong evidence for an association between cosmogenic isotope production and Earth’s climate throughout the holecene. These isotopes are generated by the bombardment of Earth’s atmosphere by galactic cosmic rays, the fluxes of which vary in approximately inverse proportion to the total open magnetic flux of the Sun. This paper discusses how results from the Ulysses spacecraft allow us to quantify the open solar flux from observations of near-Earth interplanetary space and to study its long-term variations using the homogeneous record of geomagnetic activity. A study of the results and of their accuracy is presented. The two proposed mechanisms that could lead to the open solar flux being a good proxy for solar-induced climate change are discussed: the first is the modulation of the production of some types of cloud by the air ions produced by cosmic rays; the second is a variation in the total or spectral solar irradiance, in association with changes in the open flux. Some implications for our understanding of anthropogenic climate change are discussed.

Long-term variations in the magnetic field of the Sun and possible implications for terrestrial climate

Recent studies of the variation of geomagnetic activity over the past 140 years have quantified the "coronal source" or "open" magnetic flux F-s that leaves the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere and have shown that it has risen, on average, by 34% since 1963 and by 140% since 1900. This variation is reflected in studies of the heliospheric field using isotopes deposited in ice sheets and meteorites by the action of galactic comic rays. The variation has also been reproduced using a model that demonstrates how the open flux accumulates and decays, depending on the rate of flux emergence in active regions and on the length of the solar cycle. The cosmic ray flux at energies > 3 GeV is found to have decayed by about 15% during the 20(th) century (and by about 4% at > 13 GeV). We show that the changes in the open flux do reflect changes in the photospheric and sub-surface field which offers an explanation of why open flux appears to be a good proxy for solar irradiance extrapolation. Correlations between F-s, solar cycle length, L, and 11-year smoothed sunspot number, R-11, explain why the various irradiance reconstructions for the last 150 years are similar in form. Possible implications of the inferred changes in cosmic ray flux and irradiance for global temperatures on Earth are discussed.

Recent lake-level and outflow variations at Lake Viljandi, Estonia: validation of a coupled lake-catchment modelling scheme for climate change studies

Changes in the depth of Lake Viljandi between 1940 and 1990 were simulated using a lake water and energy-balance model driven by standard monthly weather data. Catchment runoff was simulated using a one-dimensional hydrological model, with a two-layer soil, a single-layer snowpack, a simple representation of vegetation cover and similarly modest input requirements. Outflow was modelled as a function of lake level. The simulated record of lake level and outflow matched observations of lake-level variations (r = 0.78) and streamflow (r = 0.87) well. The ability of the model to capture both intra- and inter-annual variations in the behaviour of a specific lake, despite the relatively simple input requirements, makes it extremely suitable for investigations of the impacts of climate change on lake water balance.