Trends and Variability of AVHRR-Derived NPP in India

In this paper, we estimate the trends and variability in Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) over India for the period 1982-2006. We find an increasing trend of 3.9% per decade (r = 0.78, R-2 = 0.61) during the analysis period. A multivariate linear regression of NPP with temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2 concentration, soil water and surface solar radiation (r = 0.80, R-2 = 0.65) indicates that the increasing trend is partly driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and the consequent CO2 fertilization of the ecosystems. However, human interventions may have also played a key role in the NPP increase: non-forest NPP growth is largely driven by increases in irrigated area and fertilizer use, while forest NPP is influenced by plantation and forest conservation programs. A similar multivariate regression of interannual NPP anomalies with temperature, precipitation, soil water, solar radiation and CO2 anomalies suggests that the interannual variability in NPP is primarily driven by precipitation and temperature variability. Mean seasonal NPP is largest during post-monsoon and lowest during the pre-monsoon period, thereby indicating the importance of soil moisture for vegetation productivity.

Trends in aerosol optical depth over Indian region: Potential causes and impact indicators

The first regional synthesis of long-term (back to similar to 25 years at some stations) primary data (from direct measurement) on aerosol optical depth from the ARFINET (network of aerosol observatories established under the Aerosol Radiative Forcing over India (ARFI) project of Indian Space Research Organization over Indian subcontinent) have revealed a statistically significant increasing trend with a significant seasonal variability. Examining the current values of turbidity coefficients with those reported similar to 50 years ago reveals the phenomenal nature of the increase in aerosol loading. Seasonally, the rate of increase is consistently high during the dry months (December to March) over the entire region whereas the trends are rather inconsistent and weak during the premonsoon (April to May) and summer monsoon period (June to September). The trends in the spectral variation of aerosol optical depth (AOD) reveal the significance of anthropogenic activities on the increasing trend in AOD. Examining these with climate variables such as seasonal and regional rainfall, it is seen that the dry season depicts a decreasing trend in the total number of rainy days over the Indian region. The insignificant trend in AOD observed over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, a regional hot spot of aerosols, during the premonsoon and summer monsoon season is mainly attributed to the competing effects of dust transport and wet removal of aerosols by the monsoon rain. Contributions of different aerosol chemical species to the total dust, simulated using Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model over the ARFINET stations, showed an increasing trend for all the anthropogenic components and a decreasing trend for dust, consistent with the inference deduced from trend in Angstrom exponent.

Climate change scenarios of surface solar radiation in data sparse regions: a case study in Malaprabha River Basin, India

A variety of methods are available to estimate future solar radiation (SR) scenarios at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment. However, there are no clear guidelines available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. Three methodologies to guide the estimation of SR are discussed in this study, namely: Case 1: SR is measured, Case 2: SR is measured but sparse and Case 3: SR is not measured. In Case 1, future SR scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies that transfer the simulated large-scale information of global climate models to a local scale ( measurements). In Case 2, the SR was first estimated at the local scale for a longer time period using sparse measured records, and then future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. In Case 3: the SR was first estimated at a regional scale for a longer time period using complete or sparse measured records of SR from which SR at the local scale was estimated. Finally, the future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. The lack of observed SR data, especially in developing countries, has hindered various climate change impact studies. Hence, this was further elaborated by applying the Case 3 methodology to a semi-arid Malaprabha reservoir catchment in southern India. A support vector machine was used in downscaling SR. Future monthly scenarios of SR were estimated from simulations of third-generation Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) for various SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT). Results indicated a projected decrease of 0.4 to 12.2 W m(-2) yr(-1) in SR during the period 2001-2100 across the 4 scenarios. SR was calculated using the modified Hargreaves method. The decreasing trends for the future were in agreement with the simulations of SR from the CGCM3 model directly obtained for the 4 scenarios.

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5A degrees. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960-1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region.

Of plants and pikas: evidence for a climate-mediated decline in forage and cache quality

Background: Animals that hoard food to mediate seasonal deficits in resource availability might be particularly vulnerable to climate-mediated reductions in the quality and accessibility of food during the caching season. Central-place foragers might be additionally impacted by climatic constraints on their already restricted foraging range. Aims: We sought evidence for these patterns in a study of the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a territorial, central-place forager sensitive to climate. Methods: Pika food caches and available forage were re-sampled using historical methods at two long-term study sites, to quantify changes over two decades. Taxa that changed in availability or use were analysed for primary and secondary metabolites. Results: Both sites trended towards warmer summers, and snowmelt trended earlier at the lower latitude site. Graminoid cover increased at each site, and caching trends appeared to reflect available forage rather than primary metabolites. Pikas at the lower latitude site preferred species higher in secondary metabolites, known to provide higher-nutrient winter forage. However, caching of lower-nutrient graminoids increased in proportion with graminoid availability at that site. Conclusions: If our results represent trends in climate, cache quality and available forage, we predict that pikas at the lower latitude site will soon face nutritional deficiencies.

PICES-GLOBEC International Program On Climate Change And Carrying Capacity: Report of the 2000 BASS, MODEL, MONITOR and REX workshops, and the 2001 BASS/MODEL workshop

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.07 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.05 Mb] Report of the 2000 BASS Workshop on The Development of a conceptual model of the Subarctic Pacific basin ecosystems [pdf, 0.71 Mb] Report of the 2000 MODEL Workshop on Strategies for coupling higher and lower trophic level marine ecosystem models [pdf, 3.62 Mb] Report of the 2000 MONITOR Workshop on Progress in monitoring the North Pacific [pdf, 1.21 Mb] Report of the 2000 REX Workshop on Trends in herring populations and trophodynamics [pdf, 4.22 Mb] Report of the 2001 BASS/MODEL Workshop on Higher trophic level modeling [pdf, 0.29 Mb] (Document pdf contains 119 pages)

Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish

Foreword [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Acknowledgements PHASE 1 [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (July 19–20, 2007, Seattle, U.S.A.) Background Links to Other Programs Workshop Format Session I. Status of climate change scenarios in the PICES region Session II. What are the expected impacts of climate change on regional oceanography and what are some scenarios for these drivers for the next 10 years? Session III. Recruitment forecasting Session IV. What models are out there? How is climate linked to the model? Session V. Assumptions regarding future fishing scenarios and enhancement activities Session VI Where do we go from here? References Appendix 1.1 List of Participants PHASE 2 [pdf, 0.7 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (October 30, 2007, Victoria, Canada) Background Workshop Agenda Forecast Feasibility Format of Information Modeling Approaches Coupled bio-physical models Stock assessment projection models Comparative approaches Similarities in Data Requests Opportunities for Coordination with Other PICES Groups and International Efforts BACKGROUND REPORTS PREPARED FOR THE PHASE 2 WORKSHOP Northern California Current (U.S.) groundfish production by Melissa Haltuch Changes in sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) recruitment in relation to oceanographic conditions by Michael J. Schirripa Northern California Current (British Columbia) Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) production by Caihong Fu and Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) production by Caihong Fu Alaska salmon production by Anne Hollowed U.S. walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) production in the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska by Kevin Bailey and Anne Hollowed U.S. groundfish production in the eastern Bering Sea by Tom Wilderbuer U.S. crab production in the eastern Bering Sea by Gordon H. Kruse Forecasting Japanese commercially exploited species by Shin-ichi Ito, Kazuaki Tadokoro and Yasuhiro Yamanka Russian fish production in the Japan/East Sea by Yury Zuenko, Vladimir Nuzhdin and Natalia Dolganova Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) production in Korea by Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim and Hyunju Seo Jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee and Chang-Ik Zhang Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee, Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim, Chang-Ik Zhang and Jin Yeong Kim References Appendix 2.1 List of Participants PHASE 3 [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Summary of the PICES Workshop on Linking Global Climate Model Output to (a) Trends in Commercial Species Productivity and (b) Changes in Broader Biological Communities in the World’s Oceans (May 18, 2008, Gijón, Spain) Appendix 3.1 List of Participants Appendix 3.2 Workshop Agenda (Document contains 101 pages)

An integrated approach for evaluating coastal vulnerability in a changing climate

Coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion threaten many coastal communities and ecosystems. With documented increases in both storm frequency and intensity and projected acceleration of sea level rise, incorporating the impacts of climate change and variability into coastal vulnerability assessments is becoming a necessary, yet challenging task. We are developing an integrated approach to probabilistically incorporate the impacts of climate change into coastal vulnerability assessments via a multi-scale, multi-hazard methodology. By examining the combined hazards of episodic flooding/inundation and storm induced coastal change with chronic trends under a range of future climate change scenarios, a quantitative framework can be established to promote more sciencebased decision making in the coastal zone. Our focus here is on an initial application of our method in southern Oregon, United States. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Integrating climate change impacts to improve understanding of coastal climate change: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas in coastal Hawaii, Alaska and the Pacific Northwest

Coastal storms, and the strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas that accompany them pose a serious threat to the lives and livelihoods of the peoples of the Pacific basin, from the tropics to the high latitudes. To reduce their vulnerability to the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with these phenomena (and correspondingly enhance their resiliency), decision-makers in coastal communities require timely access to accurate information that affords them an opportunity to plan and respond accordingly. This includes information about the potential for coastal flooding, inundation and erosion at time scales ranging from hours to years, as well as the longterm climatological context of this information. The Pacific Storms Climatology Project (PSCP) was formed in 2006 with the intent of improving scientific understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity - “storminess”- and related impacts of these extreme events. The project is currently developing a suite of integrated information products that can be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies and decision-makers in key sectors, including: water and natural resource management, agriculture and fisheries, transportation and communication, and recreation and tourism. The PSCP is exploring how the climate-related processes that govern extreme storm events are expressed within and between three primary thematic areas: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas. To address these thematic areas, PSCP has focused on developing analyses of historical climate records collected throughout the Pacific region, and the integration of these climatological analyses with near-real time observations to put recent weather and climate events into a longer-term perspective.(PDF contains 4 pages)

Long Run Trends in the Price of Energy and Energy Services

4 p.

Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios

4 p.

Warning to navigators: IPCC report on climate change mitigation

6 p.

Divergences in the Long Run Trends in the Price of Energy and of Energy Services

32 p.

Long Run Trends in Energy-Related External Costs

30 p.

Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios

9 p.