Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countriesmaintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystemservices that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories andmethods. This reviewtherefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change,whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

Climate change and infectious diseases of wildlife: Altered interactions between pathogens, vectors and hosts

Infectious diseases result from the interactions of host, pathogens, and, in the case of vector-borne diseases, also vectors. The interactions involve physiological and ecological mechanisms and they have evolved under a given set of environmental conditions. Environmental change, therefore, will alter host-pathogen-vector interactions and, consequently, the distribution, intensity, and dynamics of infectious diseases. Here, we review how climate change may impact infectious diseases of aquatic and terrestrial wildlife. Climate change can have direct impacts on distribution, life cycle, and physiological status of hosts, pathogens and vectors. While a change in either host, pathogen or vector does not necessarily translate into an alteration of the disease, it is the impact of climate change on the interactions between the disease components which is particularly critical for altered disease risks. Finally, climate factors can modulate disease through modifying the ecological networks host-pathogen-vector systems are belonging to, and climate change can combine with other environmental stressors to induce cumulative effects on infectious diseases. Overall, the influence of climate change on infectious diseases involves different mechanisms, it can be modulated by phenotypic acclimation and/or genotypic adaptation, it depends on the ecological context of the host-pathogen-vector interactions, and it can be modulated by impacts of other stressors. As a consequence of this complexity, non-linear responses of disease systems under climate change are to be expected. To improve predictions on climate change impacts on infectious disease, we suggest that more emphasis should be given to the integration of biomedical and ecological research for studying both the physiological and ecological mechanisms which mediate climate change impacts on disease, and to the development of harmonized methods and approaches to obtain more comparable results, as this would support the discrimination of case-specific versus general mechanisms

Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment

The Antarctic climate system varies on timescales from orbital, through millennial to sub-annual, and is closely coupled to other parts of the global climate system. We review these variations from the perspective of the geological and glaciological records and the recent historical period from which we have instrumental data (similar to the last 50 years). We consider their consequences for the biosphere, and show how the latest numerical models project changes into the future, taking into account human actions in the form of the release of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere. In doing so, we provide an essential Southern Hemisphere companion to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.

Promoting Local Innovations: A tool for adaptation to climate change and sustainable development in Mountains

Throughout their history mountain communities have had to adapt to changing environmental and socio-economic conditions. They have developed strategies and specialized knowledge to sustain their livelihoods in a context of adverse climatic events and constant change. As negotiations and discussions on climate change emphasize the critical need for locally relevant and community owned adaptation strategies, there is a need for new tools to capitalize on this local knowledge and endogenous potential for innovation. The toolkit Promoting Local Innovation (PLI) was designed by the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) of the University of Bern, Switzerland, to facilitate a participatory social learning process which identifies locally available innovations that can be implemented for community development. It is based on interactive pedagogy and joint learning among different stakeholders in the local context. The tried-and-tested tool was developed in the Andean region in 2004, and then used in International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) climate change adaptation projects in Thailand, Burkina Faso, Senegal, and Chile. These experiences showed that PLI can be used to involve all relevant stakeholders in establishing strategies and actions needed for rural communities to adapt to climate change impacts, while building on local innovation potential and promoting local ownership