Forecasting the maximum compensation offer in the automobile BI claims negotiation process

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Group wise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.

Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II

Automobile bodily injury (BI) claims remain unsettled for a long time after the accident. The estimation of an accurate reserve for Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims is therefore vital for insurers. In accordance with the recommendation included in the Solvency II project (CEIOPS, 2007) a statistical model is here implemented for RBNS reserve estimation. Lognormality on empirical compensation cost data is observed for different levels of BI severity. The individual claim provision is estimated by allocating the expected mean compensation for the predicted severity of the victim’s injury, for which the upper bound is also computed. The BI severity is predicted by means of a heteroscedastic multiple choice model, because empirical evidence has found that the variability in the latent severity of injured individuals travelling by car is not constant. It is shown that this methodology can improve the accuracy of RBNS reserve estimation at all stages, as compared to the subjective assessment that has traditionally been made by practitioners.

Determining risk potential through accidents and near-accidents: an empirical study in a steel factory

Fatal and permanently disabling accidents form only one per I cent of all occupational accidents but in many branches of industry they account for more than half the accident costs. Furthermore the human suffering of the victim and his family is greater in severe accidents than in slight ones. For both human and economic reasons the severe accident risks should be identified befor injuries occur. It is for this purpose that different safety analysis methods have been developed . This study shows two new possible approaches to the problem.. The first is the hypothesis that it is possible to estimate the potential severity of accidents independent of the actual severity. The second is the hypothesis that when workers are also asked to report near accidents, they are particularly prone to report potentially severe near accidents on the basis of their own subjective risk assessment. A field study was carried out in a steel factory. The results supported both the hypotheses. The reliability and the validity of post incident estimates of an accident's potential severity were reasonable. About 10 % of accidents were estimated to be potentially critical; they could have led to death or very severe permanent disability. Reported near accidents were significantly more severe, about 60 $ of them were estimated to be critical. Furthermore the validity of workers subjective risk assessment, manifested in the near accident reports, proved to be reasonable. The studied new methods require further development and testing. They could be used both in routine usage in work places and in research for identifying and setting the priorities of accident risks.

Induced maritime accidents

Humanity system of life is highly supported by maritime transport when circa 8 thousand million people require about 8.800 million tons of merchandises by sea, going in some 105.000 merchant ships of over 100 GT, sailing every thinkable dangerous waters 365 days year 24 hours day. All that Enormous activity plus others different factors produce accidents, as is shown in an ascendant 1.7 rate related to ships lost with big number in life, cargoes losses, and pollution. That is why this study pretend to detect causes factors of maritime accidents, to try to reduce them, and with that targetin mind it was tested the new theory of Induced Maritime Accidents, crossing itsproposals with relevant sinister of different times and circumstances, as Andrea Doria, Torrey Canyon, Costa Concordia, among others. Those cases were re evaluated to establish the key points of such theory, as they are the Production Pressure, the Risk Homeostasis, technological advances and the rupture of safety margin. Cases studies gave as result the existence of referred key points, in a manner combined that the chain of events derived to the fatality, and more than that highlights the possibility that been suppressed to acceptable limits the production pressure or the risk homeostasis, a permissible safety margin were been maintained, avoiding catastrophe.

Efectos del alcohol y conducción de vehículos: creencias y conductas de los jóvenes

Traffic accidents are one of the causes of death for people between 1 and 45 years old. Many studies verify that the road accidents are related with the consumption of alcohol. This problem, is especially important in the young people and it is increased during dawns of the weekends. Some studies underline the lack of information and knowledge of many young people concerning law on alcohol consummation when driving and the effects of this drug on consumers. Another problem is the amount of mistaken beliefs on what to do neutralize the alcohol’s effect before drive. The objective of our study is to evaluate, in university students, the knowledge of the rules of driving behavior included in the circulation code and the personal beliefs about the effects of the alcohol in driving, and to find the frequency and the circumstances in which young people drive after alcohol consummation. The results suggest many actions that may be considered in the design of preventive campaigns that promotes safety road behavior in order to increase their effectivity

Les accidents du travail survenus aux enfants âgés de moins de 13 ans : compte rendu des discussions, voeux adoptés / rapport de M. Henri Capitant,...

Collection : Association pour la protection légale des travailleurs, section française ; 3