Opportunistic and Other Infections in HIV-Infected Children in Latin America Compared to a Similar Cohort in the United States

Opportunistic and other infections have declined since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in developed countries but few studies have addressed the impact of HAART in HIV-infected children from developing countries. This study examines the prevalence and incidence of opportunistic and other infections in Latin America during the HAART era. Vertically HIV-infected children enrolled in a cohort study between 2002 and 2007 were followed for the occurrence of 29 targeted infections. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were performed to calculate the prevalence of infections before enrollment and the incidence rates of opportunistic and other infections after enrollment. Comparisons were made with data from a U. S. cohort (PACTG 219C). Of the 731 vertically HIV-infected children 568 (78%) had at least one opportunistic or other infection prior to enrollment. The most prevalent infections were bacterial pneumonia, oral candidiasis, varicella, tuberculosis, herpes zoster, and Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia. After enrollment, the overall incidence was 23.5 per 100 person-years; the most common infections (per 100 person-years) were bacterial pneumonia (7.8), varicella (3.0), dermatophyte infections (2.9), herpes simplex (2.5), and herpes zoster (1.8). All of these incidence rates were higher than those reported in PACTG 219C. The types and relative distribution of infections among HIV-infected children in Latin America in this study are similar to those seen in the United States but the incidence rates are higher. Further research is necessary to determine the reasons for these higher rates.

Endothelial function in pre-pubertal children at risk of developing cardiomyopathy: a new frontier

Although it is known that obesity, diabetes, and Kawasaki's disease play important roles in systemic inflammation and in the development of both endothelial dysfunction and cardiomyopathy, there is a lack of data regarding the endothelial function of pre-pubertal children suffering from cardiomyopathy. In this study, we performed a systematic review of the literature on pre-pubertal children at risk of developing cardiomyopathy to assess the endothelial function of pre-pubertal children at risk of developing cardiomyopathy. We searched the published literature indexed in PubMed, Bireme and SciELO using the keywords 'endothelial', 'children', 'pediatric' and 'infant' and then compiled a systematic review. The end points were age, the pubertal stage, sex differences, the method used for the endothelial evaluation and the endothelial values themselves. No studies on children with cardiomyopathy were found. Only 11 papers were selected for our complete analysis, where these included reports on the flow-mediated percentage dilatation, the values of which were 9.80±1.80, 5.90±1.29, 4.50±0.70, and 7.10±1.27 for healthy, obese, diabetic and pre-pubertal children with Kawasaki's disease, respectively. There was no significant difference in the dilatation, independent of the endothelium, either among the groups or between the genders for both of the measurements in children; similar results have been found in adolescents and adults. The endothelial function in cardiomyopathic children remains unclear because of the lack of data; nevertheless, the known dysfunctions in children with obesity, type 1 diabetes and Kawasaki's disease may influence the severity of the cardiovascular symptoms, the prognosis, and the mortality rate. The results of this study encourage future research into the consequences of endothelial dysfunction in pre-pubertal children.

What types of unintentional injuries kill our children? Do infants die of the same types of injuries? A systematic review

The objective of this study was to review mortality from external causes (accidental injury) in children and adolescents in systematically selected journals. This was a systematic review of the literature on mortality from accidental injury in children and adolescents. We searched the Pubrvled, Latin-American and Caribbean Health Sciences and Excerpta Medica databases for articles published between July of 2001 and June of 2011. National data from official agencies, retrieved by manual searches, were also reviewed. We reviewed 15 journal articles, the 2011 edition of a National Safety Council publication and 2010 statistical data from the Brazilian National Ministry of Health Mortality Database. Most published data were related to high-income countries. Mortality from accidental injury was highest among children less than 1 year of age. Accidental threats to breathing (non-drowning threats) constituted the leading cause of death among this age group in the published articles. Across the pediatric age group in the surveyed studies, traffic accidents were the leading cause of death, followed by accidental drowning and submersion. Traffic accidents constitute the leading external cause of accidental death among children in the countries understudy. However, infants were vulnerable to external causes, particularly to accidental non-drowning threats to breathing, and this age group had the highest mortality rates for external causes. Actions to reduce such events are suggested. Further studies investigating the occurrence of accidental deaths in low-income countries are needed to improve the understanding of these preventable events.

Mortality and morbidity in the city of Bern, Switzerland, 1805-1815 with special emphasis on infant, child and maternal deaths

This article contributes to the research on demographics and public health of urban populations of preindustrial Europe. The key source is a burial register that contains information on the deceased, such as age and sex, residence and cause of death. This register is one of the earliest compilations of data sets of individuals with this high degree of completeness and consistency. Critical assessment of the register's origin, formation and upkeep promises high validity and reliability. Between 1805 and 1815, 4,390 deceased inhabitants were registered. Information concerning these individuals provides the basis for this study. Life tables of Bern's population were created using different models. The causes of death were classified and their frequency calculated. Furthermore, the susceptibility of age groups to certain causes of death was established. Special attention was given to causes of death and mortality of newborns, infants and birth-giving women. In comparison to other cities and regions in Central Europe, Bern's mortality structure shows low rates for infants (q0=0.144) and children (q1-4=0.068). This could have simply indicated better living conditions. Life expectancy at birth was 43 years. Mortality was high in winter and spring, and decreased in summer to a low level with a short rise in August. The study of the causes of death was inhibited by difficulties in translating early 19th century nomenclature into the modern medical system. Nonetheless, death from metabolic disorders, illnesses of the respiratory system, and debilitation were the most prominent causes in Bern. Apparently, the worst killer of infants up to 12 months was the "gichteren", an obsolete German term for lethal spasmodic convulsions. The exact modern identification of this disease remains unclear. Possibilities such as infant tetanus or infant epilepsy are discussed. The maternal death rate of 0.72% is comparable with values calculated from contemporaneous sources. Relevance of childbed fever in the early 1800s was low. Bern's data indicate that the extent of deaths related to childbirth in this period is overrated. This research has an explicit interdisciplinary value for various fields including both the humanities and natural sciences, since information reported here represents the complete age and sex structure of a deceased population. Physical anthropologists can use these data as a true reference group for their palaeodemographic studies of preindustrial Central Europe of the late 18th and early 19th century. It is a call to both historians and anthropologists to use our resources to a better effect through combination of methods and exchange of knowledge.

Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy in children on peritoneal dialysis

OBJECTIVE: Insertion of percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomies (PEG) in patients on chronic peritoneal dialysis (PD) has been reported to be contraindicated due to an increased risk of morbidity and mortality. However, no systematic survey on this topic has yet been published. DESIGN: Retrospective multicenter study. SETTING: 23 pediatric dialysis units associated with the working group Arbeitsgemeinschaft für Pädiatrische Nephrologie (APN). DATA SOURCE: A structured questionnaire on clinical details of PD patients who had undergone PEG insertion or open gastrostomy (OG) since 1994 was distributed to all pediatric dialysis units of the APN. RESULTS: 27 PD patients (20 males) from 12 centers in whom PEG insertion was performed after Tenckhoff catheter introduction were evaluated. Age at intervention ranged from 0.25 to 10.9 years (median 1.3 years). Most patients were malnourished, with standard deviation score (SDS) for body weight between -4.2 and -0.6 (median -2.2). Major complications were early peritonitis < 7 days after PEG in 10/27 (37%) patients, episodes of fungal peritonitis in 7/27 (26%) patients, 4 cessations of PD and change to hemodialysis, and 2 associated deaths. However, in 14 patients, no such problems were encountered and, in 4 patients, early peritonitis effectively treated with intraperitoneal antibiotics was the only major complication. Thus, in 18/27 (67%) patients, PD was successfully reinitiated shortly after PEG insertion. Among all participating centers, only two OG procedures were reported during the study period, illustrating a clear preference for the PEG over the OG procedure among members of the APN. CONCLUSION: PEG insertion following PD initiation carries a high risk for fungal peritonitis and potential PD failure; however, complication rates in this largest reported series were lower than previously described. Antibiotic and antifungal prophylaxis, withholding PD for 2 - 3 days, and gastrostomy placement by an experienced endoscopy team are suggested precautions for lowering the risk of associated complications. When gastrostomy placement does not occur prior to or at the time of initiating PD, the risks and benefits of percutaneous versus open placement must be carefully weighed.

Nosocomial infection: A risk factor for a complicated course in children with respiratory syncytial virus infection - Results from a prospective multicenter German surveillance study

BACKGROUND: Nosocomially acquired respiratory syncytial virus infections (RSV-NI) may cause serious problems in hospitalized paediatric patients. Hitherto, prospectively collected representative data on RSV-NI from multicenter studies in Germany are limited. METHODS: The DMS RSV Ped database was designed for the prospective multicenter documentation and analysis of clinically relevant aspects of the management of inpatients with RSV-infection. The study covered six consecutive seasons (1999-2005); the surveillance took place in 14 paediatric hospitals in Germany. RESULTS: Of the 1568 prospectively documented RSV-infections, 6% (n=90) were NI and 94% (n=1478) were community acquired (CA). A significantly higher proportion in the NI group displayed additional risk factors like prematurity, chronic lung disease, mechanical ventilation (med. history), congenital heart disease, and neuromuscular impairment. Of all NI, 55% occurred in preterms (30.6% of all RSV-infections in preterms with severe chronic lung disease of prematurity were NI). Illness severity as well as the total mortality, but not the attributable mortality was significantly higher in the NI group. In the multivariate analysis, NI was significantly associated with the combined outcome 'complicated course of disease'. CONCLUSION: This is the first prospective multicenter study from Germany, which confirms the increased risk of a severe clinical course in nosocomially acquired RSV-infection. Of great concern is the high rate of (preventable) NI in preterms, in particular in those with severe chronic lung disease or with mechanical ventilation due to other reasons.

Hospitalized children with respiratory syncytial virus infection and neuromuscular impairment face an increased risk of a complicated course

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is an important cause of viral respiratory tract infection in children. In contrast to other confirmed risk factors that predispose to a higher morbidity and mortality, the particular risk of a preexisting neuromuscular impairment (NMI) in hospitalized children with RSV infection has not been prospectively studied in a multicenter trial. METHODS: The DMS RSV Paed database was designed for the prospective multicenter documentation and analysis of all clinically relevant aspects of the management of inpatients with RSV infection. Patients with clinically relevant NMI were identified according to the specific comments of the attending physicians and compared with those without NMI. RESULTS: This study covers 6 consecutive seasons; the surveillance took place in 14 pediatric hospitals in Germany from 1999 to 2005. In total, 1568 RSV infections were prospectively documented in 1541 pediatric patients. Of these, 73 (4.7%) patients displayed a clinically relevant NMI; 41 (56%) NMI patients had at least 1 additional risk factor for a severe course of the infection (multiple risk factors in some patients; prematurity in 30, congenital heart disease in 19, chronic lung disease 6 and immunodeficiency in 8). Median age at diagnosis was higher in NMI patients (14 vs. 5 months); NMI patients had a greater risk of seizures (15.1% vs. 1.6%), and a higher proportion in the NMI group had to be mechanically ventilated (9.6% vs. 1.9%). Eventually, the attributable mortality was significantly higher in the NMI group (5.5% vs. 0.2%; P < 0.001 for all). Multivariate logistic regression confirmed that NMI was independently associated with pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission (OR, 4.94; 95% CI, 2.69-8.94; P < 0.001] and mechanical ventilation (OR, 3.85; 95% CI, 1.28-10.22; P = 0.017). CONCLUSION: This is the first prospective multicenter study confirming the hypothesis that children with clinically relevant NMI face an increased risk for severe RSV-disease. It seems reasonable to include NMI as a cofactor into the decision algorithm of passive immunization.

The Ross procedure in infants and young children

BACKGROUND: This study reviews our experience with the Ross procedure in infants and young children. METHODS: From September 1993 to September 2004, 52 children less than 15 years of age underwent a Ross procedure. The patients ranged in age from 4 days to 15 years old (median, 5 years). Fifteen patients (29%) were less than 2 years of age. The predominant indication for the Ross procedure was aortic stenosis. Sixteen patients underwent a Ross-Konno procedure for severe left ventricular outflow tract obstruction. Thirty-four patients had 48 previous interventions. Preoperatively, 6 patients showed severe left ventricular dysfunction, and 2 of the patients required ventilation and inotropic support. Concomitant procedures were performed in 8 patients. Three patients had a mitral valve replacement, 2 patients had a ventricular septal defect closure and an aortic arch reconstruction, 2 patients had aortic arch reconstructions, and 1 patient had resection of a coarctation and a ventricular septal defect closure. RESULTS: Patients were followed up for a median of 43 months (range, 1 to 130). Overall survival was 85% +/- 5% at 1 and 82% +/- 5% at 2, 5, and 10 years. Hospital mortality was 5 of 52 patients (9.6%). All deaths occurred in neonates or infants less than 2 months of age, who needed urgent surgery. Three patients died late of noncardiac causes. At last follow-up, all patients were classified in New York Heart Association functional class I or II. No patient had endocarditis of the autograft or the right ventricular outflow tract replacement. During the follow-up, no event of thrombembolism was observed. No patient required the insertion of a permanent pacemaker. Overall freedom from reoperation is 57% +/- 15% at 10 years. One patient required the replacement of the autograft at 6 months postoperatively. The development of mild aortic insufficiency was observed in 24 patients, and moderate aortic insufficiency in 1 patient during follow-up. Freedom from reoperation for the right ventricular outflow tract replacement is 60% +/- 15% at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: The Ross procedure represents an attractive approach to aortic valve disease in young children. However, a high early mortality rate has to be considered when performing this procedure in neonates or infants who present in critical preoperative condition.

Mortality of patients lost to follow-up in antiretroviral treatment programmes in resource-limited settings: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The retention of patients in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes is an important issue in resource-limited settings. Loss to follow up can be substantial, but it is unclear what the outcomes are in patients who are lost to programmes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Indian Medlars Centre (IndMed) and African Index Medicus (AIM) databases and the abstracts of three conferences for studies that traced patients lost to follow up to ascertain their vital status. Main outcomes were the proportion of patients traced, the proportion found to be alive and the proportion that had died. Where available, we also examined the reasons why some patients could not be traced, why patients found to be alive did not return to the clinic, and the causes of death. We combined mortality data from several studies using random-effects meta-analysis. Seventeen studies were eligible. All were from sub-Saharan Africa, except one study from India, and none were conducted in children. A total of 6420 patients (range 44 to 1343 patients) were included. Patients were traced using telephone calls, home visits and through social networks. Overall the vital status of 4021 patients could be ascertained (63%, range across studies: 45% to 86%); 1602 patients had died. The combined mortality was 40% (95% confidence interval 33%-48%), with substantial heterogeneity between studies (P<0.0001). Mortality in African programmes ranged from 12% to 87% of patients lost to follow-up. Mortality was inversely associated with the rate of loss to follow up in the programme: it declined from around 60% to 20% as the percentage of patients lost to the programme increased from 5% to 50%. Among patients not found, telephone numbers and addresses were frequently incorrect or missing. Common reasons for not returning to the clinic were transfer to another programme, financial problems and improving or deteriorating health. Causes of death were available for 47 deaths: 29 (62%) died of an AIDS defining illness. CONCLUSIONS: In ART programmes in resource-limited settings a substantial minority of adults lost to follow up cannot be traced, and among those traced 20% to 60% had died. Our findings have implications both for patient care and the monitoring and evaluation of programmes.

Outcomes of the South African National Antiretroviral Treatment Programme for children: the IeDEA Southern Africa collaboration

OBJECTIVES: To assess paediatric antiretroviral treatment (ART) outcomes and their associations from a collaborative cohort representing 20% of the South African national treatment programme. DESIGN AND SETTING: Multi-cohort study of 7 public sector paediatric ART programmes in Gauteng, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces. SUBJECTS: ART-naive children (< or = 16 years) who commenced treatment with > or = 3 antiretroviral drugs before March 2008. OUTCOME MEASURES: Time to death or loss to follow-up were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Associations between baseline characteristics and mortality were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models stratified by site. Immune status, virological suppression and growth were described in relation to duration of ART. RESULTS: The median (interquartile range) age of 6 078 children with 9 368 child-years of follow-up was 43 (15 - 83) months, with 29% being < 18 months. Most were severely ill at ART initiation. More than 75% of children were appropriately monitored at 6-monthly intervals with viral load suppression (< 400 copies/ml) being 80% or above throughout 36 months of treatment. Mortality and retention in care at 3 years were 7.7% (95% confidence interval 7.0 - 8.6%) and 81.4% (80.1 - 82.6%), respectively. Together with young age, all markers of disease severity (low weight-for-age z-score, high viral load, severe immune suppression, stage 3/4 disease and anaemia) were independently associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Dramatic clinical benefit for children accessing the national ART programme is demonstrated. Higher mortality in infants and those with advanced disease highlights the need for early diagnosis of HIV infection and commencement of ART.

Survivors with bad outcome after hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy: full-term neonates compare unfavourably with children

Hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE) is of major importance in neonatal and paediatric intensive care with regard to mortality and long-term morbidity. Our aim was to analyse our data in full-term neonates and children with special regard to withdrawal of life support and bad outcome. PATIENTS: All patients with HIE admitted to our unit from 1992-96 were analysed. Criteria for HIE were presence of a hypoxic insult followed by coma or altered consciousness with or without convulsions. Severity of HIE was assessed in neonates using Sarnat stages, and in children the duration of coma. In the majority of cases staging was completed with electrophysiological studies. Outcome was described using the Glasgow Outcome Scale. Bad outcome was defined as death, permanent vegetative state or severe disability, good outcome as moderate disability or good recovery. RESULTS: In the neonatal group (n = 38) outcome was significantly associated with Sarnat stages, presence of convulsions, severely abnormal EEG, cardiovascular failure, and multiple organ dysfunction (MOD). A bad outcome was observed in 27 cases with 14 deaths and 13 survivors. Supportive treatment was withdrawn in 14 cases with 9 subsequent deaths. In the older age group (n = 45) outcome was related to persistent coma of 24-48 h, severely abnormal EEG, cardiovascular failure, liver dysfunction and MOD. A bad outcome was found in 36 cases with 33 deaths and 3 survivors. Supportive treatment was withdrawn in 15 instances, all followed by death. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, neonates and older patients did not differ with regard to good or bad outcome. However, in the neonatal group there were significantly more survivors with bad outcome, either overall or after withdrawal of support. Possible explanations for this difference include variability of hypoxic insult, maturational and metabolic differences, and the more compliant neonatal skull, which prevents brainstem herniation.

Methodological considerations and practical recommendations for the application of peripheral arterial tonometry in children and adolescents

Endothelial dysfunction is recognized as the primum movens in the development of atherosclerosis. Its crucial role in both cardiovascular morbidity and mortality has been confirmed. In the past, research was hampered by the invasive character of endothelial function assessment. The development of non-invasive and feasible techniques to measure endothelial function has facilitated and promoted research in various adult and paediatric subpopulations. To avoid user dependence of flow-mediated dilation (FMD), which evaluates nitric oxide dependent vasodilation in large vessels, a semi-automated, method to assess peripheral microvascular function, called peripheral arterial tonometry (Endo-PAT®), was recently introduced. The number of studies using this technique in children and adolescents is rapidly increasing, yet there is no consensus with regard to either measuring protocol or data analysis of peripheral arterial tonometry in children and adolescents. Most paediatric studies simply applied measuring and analysing methodology established in adults, a simplification that may not be appropriate. This paper provides a detailed description of endothelial function assessment using the Endo-PAT for researchers and clinicians. We discuss clinical and methodological considerations and point out the differences between children, adolescents and adults. Finally, the main aim of this paper is to provide recommendations for a standardised application of Endo-PAT in children and adolescents, as well as for population-specific data analysis methodology.

Retention in care of HIV-infected children from HIV test to start of antiretroviral therapy: systematic review

BACKGROUND In adults it is well documented that there are substantial losses to the programme between HIV testing and start of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The magnitude and reasons for loss to follow-up and death between HIV diagnosis and start of ART in children are not well defined. METHODS We searched the PubMed and EMBASE databases for studies on children followed between HIV diagnosis and start of ART in low-income settings. We examined the proportion of children with a CD4 cell count/percentage after after being diagnosed with HIV infection, the number of treatment-eligible children starting ART and predictors of loss to programme. Data were extracted in duplicate. RESULTS Eight studies from sub-Saharan Africa and two studies from Asia with a total of 10,741 children were included. Median age ranged from 2.2 to 6.5 years. Between 78.0 and 97.0% of HIV-infected children subsequently had a CD4 cell count/percentage measured, 63.2 to 90.7% of children with an eligibility assessment met the eligibility criteria for the particular setting and time and 39.5 to 99.4% of the eligible children started ART. Three studies reported an association between low CD4 count/percentage and ART initiation while no association was reported for gender. Only two studies reported on pre-ART mortality and found rates of 13 and 6 per 100 person-years. CONCLUSION Most children who presented for HIV care met eligibility criteria for ART. There is an urgent need for strategies to improve the access to and retention to care of HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings.

Optimal time for initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-infected, treatment-naive children aged 2 to 5 years old

BACKGROUND The use of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) comprising three antiretroviral medications from at least two classes of drugs is the current standard treatment for HIV infection in adults and children. Current World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for antiretroviral therapy recommend early treatment regardless of immunologic thresholds or the clinical condition for all infants (less than one years of age) and children under the age of two years. For children aged two to five years current WHO guidelines recommend (based on low quality evidence) that clinical and immunological thresholds be used to identify those who need to start cART (advanced clinical stage or CD4 counts ≤ 750 cells/mm(3) or per cent CD4 ≤ 25%). This Cochrane review will inform the current available evidence regarding the optimal time for treatment initiation in children aged two to five years with the goal of informing the revision of WHO 2013 recommendations on when to initiate cART in children. OBJECTIVES To assess the evidence for the optimal time to initiate cART in treatment-naive, HIV-infected children aged 2 to 5 years. SEARCH METHODS We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, the AEGIS conference database, specific relevant conferences, www.clinicaltrials.gov, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry platform and reference lists of articles. The date of the most recent search was 30 September 2012. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared immediate with deferred initiation of cART, and prospective cohort studies which followed children from enrolment to start of cART and on cART. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two review authors considered studies for inclusion in the review, assessed the risk of bias, and extracted data on the primary outcome of death from all causes and several secondary outcomes, including incidence of CDC category C and B clinical events and per cent CD4 cells (CD4%) at study end. For RCTs we calculated relative risks (RR) or mean differences with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). For cohort data, we extracted relative risks with 95% CI from adjusted analyses. We combined results from RCTs using a random effects model and examined statistical heterogeneity. MAIN RESULTS Two RCTs in HIV-positive children aged 1 to 12 years were identified. One trial was the pilot study for the larger second trial and both compared initiation of cART regardless of clinical-immunological conditions with deferred initiation until per cent CD4 dropped to <15%. The two trials were conducted in Thailand, and Thailand and Cambodia, respectively. Unpublished analyses of the 122 children enrolled at ages 2 to 5 years were included in this review. There was one death in the immediate cART group and no deaths in the deferred group (RR 2.9; 95% CI 0.12 to 68.9). In the subgroup analysis of children aged 24 to 59 months, there was one CDC C event in each group (RR 0.96; 95% CI 0.06 to 14.87) and 8 and 11 CDC B events in the immediate and deferred groups respectively (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.24 to 3.73). In this subgroup, the mean difference in CD4 per cent at study end was 5.9% (95% CI 2.7 to 9.1). One cohort study from South Africa, which compared the effect of delaying cART for up to 60 days in 573 HIV-positive children starting tuberculosis treatment (median age 3.5 years), was also included. The adjusted hazard ratios for the effect on mortality of delaying ART for more than 60 days was 1.32 (95% CI 0.55 to 3.16). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS This systematic review shows that there is insufficient evidence from clinical trials in support of either early or CD4-guided initiation of ART in HIV-infected children aged 2 to 5 years. Programmatic issues such as the retention in care of children in ART programmes in resource-limited settings will need to be considered when formulating WHO 2013 recommendations.

Prognosis of Children with HIV-1 Infection Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Southern Africa: A Collaborative Analysis of Treatment Programs

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models for children starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa are lacking. We developed models to estimate the probability of death during the first year receiving ART in Southern Africa. METHODS: We analyzed data from children ≤10 years old who started ART in Malawi, South Africa, Zambia or Zimbabwe from 2004-2010. Children lost to follow-up or transferred were excluded. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality in the first year of ART. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4%, age, WHO clinical stage, weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) and anemia and one without CD4%, because it is not routinely measured in many programs. We used multiple imputation to account for missing data. RESULTS: Among 12655 children, 877 (6.9%) died in the first year of ART. 1780 children were lost to follow-up/transferred and excluded from main analyses; 10875 children were included. With the CD4% model probability of death at 1 year ranged from 1.8% (95% CI: 1.5-2.3) in children 5-10 years with CD4% ≥10%, WHO stage I/II, WAZ ≥-2 and without severe anemia to 46.3% (95% CI: 38.2-55.2) in children <1 year with CD4% <5%, stage III/IV, WAZ< -3 and severe anemia. The corresponding range for the model without CD4% was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.8-2.7) to 33.4% (95% CI: 28.2-39.3). Agreement between predicted and observed mortality was good (C-statistics=0.753 and 0.745 for models with and without CD4% respectively). CONCLUSION: These models may be useful to counsel children/caregivers, for program planning and to assess program outcomes after allowing for differences in patient disease severity characteristics.