Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.

Radiocarbon dating of peat profiles from the subarctic ecoclimatic region, west-central Canada

Long-term vegetation succession and permafrost dynamics in subarctic peat plateaus of west-central Canada have been studied through detailed plant macrofossil analysis and extensive AMS radiocarbon dating of two peat profiles. Peatland inception at these sites occurred around 5800-5100 yr BP (6600-5900 cal. BP) as a result of paludification of upland forests. At the northern peat plateau site, located in the continuous permafrost zone, palaeobotanical evidence suggests that permafrost was already present under the forested upland prior to peatland development. Paludification was initiated by permafrost collapse, but re-aggradation of permafrost occurred soon after peatland inception. At the southern site, located in the discontinuous permafrost zone, the aggradation of permafrost occurred soon after peatland inception. In the peat plateaus, permafrost conditions have remained very stable until present. Sphagnum fuscum-dominated stages have alternated with more xerophytic communities characterized by ericaceous shrubs. Local peat fires have occurred, but most of these did not cause degradation of the permafrost. Starting from 2800-1100 yr BP (2900-1000 cal. BP) consistently dry surface conditions have prevailed, possibly related to continued frost heave or nearby polygon crack formation.

Pollen and macrofossils profiles and age determination from the Pittsburg Basin in the lowlands of south-central Illinois

Pollen and macrofossil evidence for the nature of the vegetation during glacial and interglacial periods in the regions south of the Wisconsinan ice margin is still very scarce. Modern opinions concerning these problems are therefore predominantly derived from geological evidence only or are extrapolated from pollen studies of late Wisconsinan deposits. Now for the first time pollen and macrofossil analyses are available from south-central Illinois covering the Holocene, the entire Wisconsinan, and most probably also Sangamonian and late Illinoian time. The cores studied came from three lakes, which originated as kettle holes in glacial drift of Illinoian age near Vandalia, Fayette County. The Wisconsinan ice sheet approached the sites from the the north to within about 60 km distance only. One of the profiles (Pittsburg Basin) probably reaches back to the late Illinoian (zone 1), which was characterized by forests with much Picea. Zone 2, most likely of Sangamonian age, represents a period of species-rich deciduous forests, which must have been similar to the ones that thrive today south and southeast of the prairie peninsula. During the entire Wisconsinan (14C dates ranging from 38,000 to 21,000 BP) thermophilous deciduous trees like Quercus, Carya, and Ulmus occurred in the region, although temporarily accompanied by tree genera with a more northerly modern distribution, such as Picea, which entered and then left south-central Illinois during the Woodfordian. Thus it is evident that arctic climatic conditions did not prevail in the lowlands of south-central Illinois (about 38°30' lat) during the Wisconsinan, even at the time of the maximum glaciation, the Woodfordian. The Wisconsinan was, however, not a period of continuous forest. The pollen assemblages of zone 3 (Altonian) indicate prairie with stands of trees, and in zone 4 the relatively abundant Artemisia pollen indicates the existence of open vegetation and stands of deciduous trees, Picea, and Pinus. True tundra may have existed north of the sites, but if so its pollen rain apparently is marked by pollen from nearby stands of trees. After the disappearance of Pinus and Picea at about 14,000 BP (estimated!), there developed a mosaic of prairies and stands of Quercus, Carya, and other deciduous tree genera (zone 5). This type of vegetation persisted until it was destroyed by cultivation during the 19th and 20th century. Major vegetational changes are not indicated in the pollen diagram for the late Wisconsinan and the Holocene. The dating of zones 1 and 2 is problematical because the sediments are beyond the14C range and because of the lack of stratigraphic evidence. The zones dated as Illinoian and Sangamonian could also represent just a Wisconsinan stadial and interstadial. This possibility, however, seems to be contradicted by the late glacial and interglacial character of the forest vegetation of that time.

Natural regeneration in mediterranean mixed forests: effect of environmental conditions on the physiological optimum niche of the species = Regeneración natural en masas mixtas mediterráneas: efecto de las condiciones ambientales en el nicho óptimo fisiológico de las especies

Los montes Mediterráneos han experimentado múltiples cambios en las últimas décadas (tanto en clima como en usos), lo que ha conducido a variaciones en la distribución de especies. El aumento previsto de las temperaturas medias junto con la mayor variabilidad intra e inter anual en cuanto a la ocurrencia de eventos extremos o disturbios naturales (como periodos prolongados de sequía, olas de frío o calor, incendios forestales o vendavales) pueden dañar significativamente al regenerado, llevándolo hasta la muerte, y jugando un papel decisivo en la composición de especies y en la dinámica del monte. La amplitud ecológica de muchas especies forestales puede verse afectada, de forma que se esperan cambios en sus nichos actuales de regeneración. Sin embargo, la migración latitudinal de las especies en busca de mejores condiciones, podría ser una explicación demasiado simplista de un proceso mucho más complejo de interacción entre la temperatura y la precipitación, que afectaría a cada especie de un modo distinto. En este sentido tanto la capacidad de adaptación al estrés ambiental de una determinada especie, así como su habilidad para competir por los recursos limitados, podría significar variaciones dentro de una comunidad. Las características fisiológicas y morfológicas propias de cada especie se encuentran fuertemente relacionadas con el lugar donde cada una puede surgir, qué especies pueden convivir y como éstas responden a las condiciones ambientales. En este sentido, el conocimiento sobre las distintas respuestas ecofisiológicas observadas ante cambios ambientales puede ser fundamentales para la predicción de variaciones en la distribución de especies, composición de la comunidad y productividad del monte ante el cambio global. En esta tesis investigamos el grado de tolerancia y sensibilidad que cada una de las tres especies de estudio, coexistentes en el interior peninsular ibérico (Pinus pinea, Quercus ilex y Juniperus oxycedrus), muestra ante los factores abióticos de estrés típicos de la región Mediterránea. Nuestro trabajo se ha basado en la definición del nicho óptimo fisiológico para el regenerado de cada especie a través de la investigación en profundidad del efecto de la sequía, la temperatura y el ambiente lumínico. Para ello, hemos desarrollado un modelo de predicción de la tasa de asimilación de carbono que nos ha permitido identificar las condiciones óptimas ambientales donde el regenerado de cada especie podría establecerse con mayor facilidad. En apoyo a este trabajo y con la idea de estudiar el efecto de la sequía a nivel de toda la planta hemos desarrollado un experimento paralelo en invernadero. Aquí se han aplicado dos regímenes hídricos para estudiar las características fisiológicas y morfológicas de cada especie, sobre todo a nivel de raíz y crecimiento del tallo, y relacionarlas con las diferentes estrategias en el uso del agua de las especies. Por último, hemos estudiado los patrones de aclimatación y desaclimatación al frio de cada especie, identificando los periodos de sensibilidad a heladas, así como cuellos de botella donde la competencia entre especies podría surgir. A pesar de que el pino piñonero ha sido la especie objeto de la gestión de estas masas durante siglos, actualmente se encuentra en la posición más desfavorable para combatir el cambio global, presentado el nicho fisiológico más estrecho de las tres especies. La encina sin embargo, ha resultado ser la especie mejor cualificada para afrontar este cambio, seguida muy de cerca por el enebro. Nuestros resultados sugieren una posible expansión en el rango de distribución de la encina, un aumento en la presencia del enebro y una disminución progresiva del pino piñonero a medio plazo en estas masas. ABSTRACT Mediterranean forests have undergone multiple changes over the last decades (in both climate and land use), which have lead to variations in the distribution of species. The expected increase in mean annual temperature together with the greater inter and intra-annual variability in extreme events and disturbances occurrence (such as prolonged drought periods, cold or heat waves, wildfires or strong winds) can significantly damage natural regeneration, up to causing death, playing a decisive role on species composition and forest dynamics. The ecological amplitude for adaptation of many species can be affected in such a way that changes in the current regeneration niches of many species are expected. However, the forecasted poleward migration of species seeking better conditions could be an oversimplification of what is a more complex phenomenon of interactions among temperature and precipitation, that would affect different species in different ways. In this regard, either the ability to adapt to environmental stresses or to compete for limited resources of a single species in a mixed forest could lead to variations within a community. The ecophysiological and morphological traits specific to each species are strongly related to the place where each species can emerge, which species can coexist, and how they respond to environmental conditions. In this regard, the understanding of the ecophysiological responses observed against changes in environmental conditions can be essential for predicting variations in species distribution, community composition, and forest productivity in the context of global change. In this thesis we investigated the degree of tolerance and sensitivity that each of the three studied species, co-occurring in central of the Iberian Peninsula (Pinus pinea, Quercus ilex and Juniperus oxycedrus), show against the typical abiotic stress factors in the Mediterranean region. Our work is based on the optimal physiological niche for regeneration of each species through in-depth research on the effect of drought, temperature and light environment. For this purpose, we developed a model to predict the carbon assimilation rate which allows us to identify the optimal environmental conditions where regeneration from each species could establish itself more easily. To obtain a better understanding about the effect of low temperature on regeneration, we studied the acclimation and deacclimation patterns to cold of each species, identifying period of frost sensitivity, as well as bottlenecks where competition between species can arise. Finally, to support our results about the effect of water availabilty, we conducted a greenhouse experiment with a view of studying the drought effect at the whole plant level. Here, two watering regimes were applied in order to study the physiological and morphological traits of each species, mainly at the level of the root system and stem growth, and so relate them to the different water use strategies of the species. Despite the fact that stone pine has been the target species for centuries, nowadays this species is in the most unfavorable position to cope with climate change. Holm oak, however, resulted the species that is best adapted to tolerate the predicted changes, followed closely by prickly juniper. Our results suggest a feasible expansion of the distribution range in holm oak, an increase in the prickly juniper presence and a progressive decreasing of stone pine presence in the medium term in these stone pine-holm oak-prickly juniper mixed forests.

Uppermost Limit, Extent, and Fluctuations of the Timberline and Treeline Ecocline in the Swiss Central Alps during the past 11,500 Years

Pollen and macrofossils were analyzed at two sites above today's treeline (or tree limit) in the Swiss Central Alps (Gouillé Loéré, 2503 m a.s.l., and Lengi Egga, 2557 m a.s.l.) to test two contrasting hypotheses about the natural formation of timberline (the upper limit of closed forest) in the Alps. Our results revealed that Pinus cembra--Larix decidua forests near timberline were rather closed between 9000 and 2500 B.C. (9600-4000 ¹⁴C yr BP), when timberline fluctuations occurred within a belt 100-150 m above today's tree limit. The treeline ecocline above timberline was characterized by the mixed occurrence of tree, shrub, dwarf-shrub, and herbaceous species, but it did not encompass more than 100-150 altitudinal meters. The uppermost limit reached by timberline and treeline during the Holocene was ca. 2420 and 2530 m, respectively, i.e., about 120 to 180 m higher than today. Between 3500 and 2500 B.C. (4700-4000 ¹⁴C yr BP) timberline progressively sank by about 300 m, while treeline was lowered only ca. 100 m. This change led to an enlargement of the treeline-ecocline belt (by ca. 300 m) after 2500 B.C. (4000 ¹⁴C yr BP). Above the treeline ecocline, natural meadows dominated by dwarf shrubs (e.g., Salix herbacea) and herbaceous species (e.g., Helianthemum, Taraxacum, Potentialla, Leontodon t., Cerastium alpinum t., Cirsium spinosissimum, Silene exscapa t., and Saxifraga stellaris) have been present since at least 11,000 cal yr ago. In these meadows tree and tall shrub species (>0.5 m) never played a major role. These results support the conventional hypothesis of a narrow ecocline with rather sharp upper timberline and treeline boundaries and imply that today's treeless alpine communities in the Alps are close to a natural stage. Pollen (percentages and influx), stomata, and charcoal data may be useful for determining whether or not a site was treeless. Nevertheless, a reliable and detailed record of past local vegetation near and above timberline is best achieved through the inclusion of macrofossil analysis.

Service forester handbook. [Prepared for the use of the service foresters in the North Central states,

Kept up to date by revisions, additions and expansions of subject matter.

Soil carbon dynamics in primary and secondary tropical forests in Colombia

Soils play a central role in the dynamics of biospheric carbon and in climate change. They contain the largest carbon stock of terrestrial ecosystems and return to the atmosphere a significant proportion of carbon fixed by photosynthesis. Soils of tropical forests are tremendously important in the carbon cycle because they receive the largest organic matter inputs, they have the largest respiration rates, and they are among the largest carbon reservoirs among world soils. This research assesses the main components of the soil carbon dynamics in primary (PF) and secondary (SF) tropical forests in Colombia. I evaluated the production, stocks, and decomposition rates of aboveground detritus as well as the stocks, growth, mortality, and decomposition of fine roots in these two forest types. Soil carbon outputs were evaluated as total soil, heterotrophic, and root respiration. The stocks of soil organic carbon down to 4 m deep in these two cover types and in degraded pastures (PAS) were also evaluated. ^ Soil inputs of organic carbon from above and belowground sources were lower in SF than in PF. Litterfall in SF was 58% and production of fine root detritus was 60% of that in PF. When production of woody detritus and palm fronds was considered, the difference between these forest types was even larger. However, outputs of mineral carbon through heterotrophic soil respiration were similar; in SF they equaled 97% of those in PF. As a result, soil carbon balance was positive in PF and negative in SF. Despite that soil carbon balances suggest that soils of SF are losing carbon, soil carbon stocks of SF were higher than of degraded pastures, suggesting that they have already started to recover soil carbon stocks lost under degraded pastures. This discrepancy can be partially explained by the effect of drier conditions on heterotrophic soil respiration as a consequence of a moderate El Niño event during the period of soil respiration measurements. The positive carbon balance in soils of PF despite the El Niño event, suggests that soils of PF accumulated about 664 Kg C ha−1 yr−1. Therefore, soil carbon dynamics mainly depended on successional status of vegetation and on climatic conditions. ^

Wetlands in central Siberia from ASAR WS 2003, link to shapefiles

An area in central Siberia (partial coverage of Turukhansky und Yeniseysky districts) was investigated using satellite data. It covers freshwater ecosystems of non-forested peatlands in boreal forests. The satellite data represent the growing seasons of 2003/2004. Microwave data were acquired by the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) instrument onboard ENVISAT. The multi-temporal capabilities and resolution (150mx150m in WS mode) of the ASAR wide swath mode enabled the detection of dynamic features >2ha over this vast area. Scatterometer (QuikScat) data could be employed to distinguish hydro-periods. Wetland types have been identified on the basis of seasonal changes in backscatter. Results for peatlands have been compared with Russian forest inventory data which contain information on wetland distribution.

Forest typology of broadleaf forests from Sierra Maestra, Eastern Cuba

A phytosociological study of the forests from Sierra Maestra is conducted, following the methodology of the Zurich- Montpelier School. They are transformed into a forest typology using the standards of the Institute of Agro-Forestry Research. In general, 35 types and/or subtypes are presented. From this group, the most abundant ones belong to semi-deciduous microphyll forest, followed by those from mangroves and mountain rainforest, respectively. Silvicultural treatments are needed; among them, the protection forests are those found above 800 m asl and mangroves. 

Pasture production and composition response after killing Eucalypt trees with herbicides in central Queensland

Clearing woodlands is practised world-wide to increase crop and livestock production, but can result in unintended consequences including woody regrowth and land degradation. The pasture response of 2 eucalypt woodlands in the central Queensland rangelands to killing trees with herbicides, in the presence or absence of grazing and regular spring burning, was recorded over 7 or 8 years to determine the long-term sustainability of these common practices. Herbage mass and species composition plus tree dynamics were monitored in 2 replicated experiments at each site. For 8 years following herbicide application, killing Eucalyptus populnea F. Muell. (poplar box) trees resulted in a doubling of native pasture herbage mass from that of the pre-existing woodland, with a tree basal area of 8.7 m2 ha-1. Conversely, over 7 years with a similar range of seasons, killing E. melanophloia F. Muell. (silver-leaved ironbark) trees of a similar tree basal area had little impact on herbage mass grown or on pasture composition for the first 4 years before production then increased. Few consistent changes in pasture composition were recorded after killing the trees, although there was an increase in the desirable grasses Dichanthium sericeum (R. Br.) A. Camus (Queensland bluegrass) and Themeda triandra Forssk. (kangaroo grass) when grazed conservatively. Excluding grazing allowed more palatable species of the major grasses to enhance their prominence, but seasonal conditions still had a major influence on their production in particular years. Pasture crown basal area was significantly higher where trees had been killed, especially in the poplar box woodland. Removing tree competition did not have a major effect on pasture composition that was independent of other management impositions or seasons, and it did not result in a rapid increase in herbage mass in both eucalypt communities. The slow pasture response to tree removal at one site indicates that regional models and economic projections relating to tree clearing require community-specific inputs.

The use of topographic fire refuges by the greater glider (Petauroides volans) and the mountain brushtail possum (Trichosurus cunninghami) following a landscape-scale fire

We examined the abundance of arboreal marsupials in topographic fire refuges after a major fire in a stand-replacing crown-fire forest ecosystem. We surveyed the abundance of arboreal marsupials across 48 sites in rainforest gullies burnt to differing extents by the 2009 fires in the mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forests of the Victorian Central Highlands, Australia. The greater glider (Petauroides volans) was less abundant within the extent of the 2009 fire. The mountain brushtail possum (Trichosurus cunninghami) was more abundant within the extent of the 2009 fire, particularly within unburnt peninsulas protruding into burnt areas from unburnt edges. Our results indicate that fire refuges may facilitate the persistence of some species within extensively burnt landscapes. Additional work should seek to clarify this finding and identify the demographic mechanisms underlying this response.

Identifying the location of fire refuges in wet forest ecosystems

The increasing frequency of large, high-severity fires threatens the survival of old-growth specialist fauna in fire-prone forests. Within topographically diverse montane forests, areas that experience less severe or fewer fires compared with those prevailing in the landscape may present unique resource opportunities enabling old-growth specialist fauna to survive. Statistical landscape models that identify the extent and distribution of potential fire refuges may assist land managers to incorporate these areas into relevant biodiversity conservation strategies. We used a case study in an Australian wet montane forest to establish how predictive fire simulation models can be interpreted as management tools to identify potential fire refuges. We examined the relationship between the probability of fire refuge occurrence as predicted by an existing fire refuge model and fire severity experienced during a large wildfire. We also examined the extent to which local fire severity was influenced by fire severity in the surrounding landscape. We used a combination of statistical approaches, including generalized linear modeling, variogram analysis, and receiver operating characteristics and area under the curve analysis (ROC AUC). We found that the amount of unburned habitat and the factors influencing the retention and location of fire refuges varied with fire conditions. Under extreme fire conditions, the distribution of fire refuges was limited to only extremely sheltered, fire-resistant regions of the landscape. During extreme fire conditions, fire severity patterns were largely determined by stochastic factors that could not be predicted by the model. When fire conditions were moderate, physical landscape properties appeared to mediate fire severity distribution. Our study demonstrates that land managers can employ predictive landscape fire models to identify the broader climatic and spatial domain within which fire refuges are likely to be present. It is essential that within these envelopes, forest is protected from logging, roads, and other developments so that the ecological processes related to the establishment and subsequent use of fire refuges are maintained.

Effectiveness of a care bundle to reduce central line-associated bloodstream infections

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effectiveness of a care bundle, with a novel line maintenance procedure, in reducing the rate of central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) in the intensive care unit (ICU).

DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Before-and-after study using CLABSI data reported to the Victorian Healthcare Associated Infection Surveillance System (VICNISS), in adult patients admitted to a tertiary adult ICU in regional Victoria between 1 July 2006 and 30 June 2014. VICNISS-reported CLABSI cases were reviewed for verification. An intervention was implemented in 2009.

INTERVENTION: The care bundle introduced in 2009 included a previously established line insertion procedure and a novel line maintenance procedure comprising Biopatch, daily 2% chlorhexidine body wash, daily ICU central line review, and liaison nurse follow-up of central lines.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: CLABSI rate (cases per 1000 central line days). RESULTS: The average CLABSI rate fell from 2.2/1000 central line days (peak of 5.2/1000 central line days in quarter 4, 2008) during the pre-intervention period to 0.5/1000 central line days (0/1000 central line days from July 2012 to July 2014) during the post-intervention period.

CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that this care bundle, using a novel maintenance procedure, can effectively reduce the CLABSI rate and maintain it at zero out to 2 years.

Environmental controls on spatial patterns in the long-term persistence of giant kelp in central California

As marine management measures increasingly protect static areas of the oceans, it is important to make sure protected areas capture and protect persistent populations. Rocky reefs in many temperate areas worldwide serve as habitat for canopy-forming macroalgae and these structure-forming species of kelps (order Laminariales) often serve as important habitat for a great diversity of species. Macrocystis pyrifera is the most common canopy-forming kelp species found along the coast of California, but the distribution and abundance of M. pyrifera varies in space and time. The purpose of this study is to determine what environmental parameters are correlated with and their relative contribution to the spatial and temporal persistence of M. pyrifera along the central coast of California and how well those environmental parameters can be used to predict areas where this species is more likely to persist. Nine environmental variables considered in this study included depth of the seafloor, structure of the rocky reef, proportion of rocky reef, size of kelp patch, biomass of kelp within a patch, distance from the edge of a kelp patch, sea surface temperature, wave orbital velocities, and population connectivity of individual kelp patches. Using a generalized linear mixed effects model (GLMM), the persistence of M. pyrifera was significantly associated with seven of the nine variables considered: depth, complexity of the rocky reef, proportion of rock, patch biomass, distance from the edge of a patch, population connectivity, and wave orbital velocities. These seven environmental variables were then used to predict the persistence of kelp across the central coast, and these predictions were compared to a reserved dataset of M. pyrifera persistence, which was not used in the creation of the GLMM. The environmental variables were shown to accurately predict the persistence of M. pyrifera within the central coast of California (r = 0.71, P < 0.001). Because persistence of giant kelp is important to the community structure of kelp forests, understanding those factors that support persistent populations of M. pyrifera will enable more effective management of these ecosystems.

Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests.

The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cy- cle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combina- tion of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 include aboveground wood productivity measure- ments and 35 litter productivity measurements), their asso- ciated canopy photosynthetic capacity (enhanced vegetation index, EVI) and climate, we ask how carbon assimilation and aboveground allocation are related to climate seasonal- ity in tropical forests and how they interact in the seasonal carbon cycle. We found that canopy photosynthetic capacity seasonality responds positively to precipitation when rain- fall is < 2000 mm yr-1 (water-limited forests) and to radia- tion otherwise (light-limited forests). On the other hand, in- dependent of climate limitations, wood productivity and lit- terfall are driven by seasonal variation in precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. Consequently, light-limited forests present an asynchronism between canopy photosyn- thetic capacity and wood productivity. First-order control by precipitation likely indicates a decrease in tropical forest pro- ductivity in a drier climate in water-limited forest, and in cur- rent light-limited forest with future rainfall < 2000 mm yr-1.