Modelagem matemática para a dispersão de fungos fitopatogênicos via autômatos celulares

Brazil is a major world producer and exporter of agricultural products like soybeans, sugar, coffee, orange and tobacoo. However, the action of phytopathogenic fungi has been one of the largest challenges encountered in the field as they are responsible for approximately 25 to 50 per cent of losses in crops of fruits and vegetables. The presence of these pathogens is always a problem, because the damage on the tissues and organs promote lesions which decreses growth vegetation and often leads the individual (host) to death. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the process of spreading of these pathogens in the field to develop strategies which prevent the epidemics caused by them. In this study, the dispersal of fungi phytopathogenic in the field was modeled using the automata cellular formalism. The growth rate of infected plants population was measured by the radius of gyration and the influence of host different susceptibility degrees into the disease spread was assessed. The spatial anisotropy related to the plant-to-plant space and the system’s response to distinct seasonal patterns were also evaluated. The results obtained by a mean field model (spatially implicit models) emphasized the importance of the spatial structure on the spreading process, and dispersal patterns obtained by simulation (using a cellular automata) were in agreement with thse observed in data. All computational implementation was held in language Cl

On estimating the basic reproduction number in distinct stages of a contagious disease spreading

In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number R-0 is usually defined as the average number of new infections caused by a single infective individual introduced into a completely susceptible population. According to this definition. R-0 is related to the initial stage of the spreading of a contagious disease. However, from epidemiological models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE), R-0 is commonly derived from a linear stability analysis and interpreted as a bifurcation parameter: typically, when R-0 >1, the contagious disease tends to persist in the population because the endemic stationary solution is asymptotically stable: when R-0 <1, the corresponding pathogen tends to naturally disappear because the disease-free stationary solution is asymptotically stable. Here we intend to answer the following question: Do these two different approaches for calculating R-0 give the same numerical values? In other words, is the number of secondary infections caused by a unique sick individual equal to the threshold obtained from stability analysis of steady states of ODE? For finding the answer, we use a susceptibleinfective-recovered (SIR) model described in terms of ODE and also in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. The values of R-0 obtained from both approaches are compared, showing good agreement. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of connectivity on the firing rate in a neuronal network with electrical and chemical synapses

We study the firing rate properties of a cellular automaton model for a neuronal network with chemical synapses. We propose a simple mechanism in which the nonlocal connections are included, through electrical and chemical synapses. In the latter case, we introduce a time delay which produces self-sustained activity. Nonlocal connections, or shortcuts, are randomly introduced according to a specified connection probability. There is a range of connection probabilities for which neuron firing occurs, as well as a critical probability for which the firing ceases in the absence of time delay. The critical probability for nonlocal shortcuts depends on the network size according to a power-law. We also compute the firing rate amplification factor by varying both the connection probability and the time delay for different network sizes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Falhas de mercado e redes em políticas públicas: desafios e possibilidades ao Sistema Único de Saúde

Os princípios e as diretrizes do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) impõem uma estrutura de assistência baseada em redes de políticas públicas que, combinada ao modelo de financiamento adotado, conduz a falhas de mercado. Isso impõe barreiras à gestão do sistema público de saúde e à concretização dos objetivos do SUS. As características institucionais e a heterogeneidade dos atores, aliadas à existência de diferentes redes de atenção à saúde, geram complexidade analítica no estudo da dinâmica global da rede do SUS. Há limitações ao emprego de métodos quantitativos baseados em análise estática com dados retrospectivos do sistema público de saúde. Assim, propõe-se a abordagem do SUS como sistema complexo, a partir da utilização de metodologia quantitativa inovadora baseada em simulação computacional. O presente artigo buscou analisar desafios e potencialidades na utilização de modelagem com autômatos celulares combinada com modelagem baseada em agentes para simulação da evolução da rede de serviços do SUS. Tal abordagem deve permitir melhor compreensão da organização, heterogeneidade e dinâmica estrutural da rede de serviços do SUS e possibilitar minimização dos efeitos das falhas de mercado no sistema de saúde brasileiro.

Tecniche MonteCarlo per l'analisi di sistemi a rete

The assessment of the RAMS (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety) performances of system generally includes the evaluations of the “Importance” of its components and/or of the basic parameters of the model through the use of the Importance Measures. The analytical equations proposed in this study allow the estimation of the first order Differential Importance Measure on the basis of the Birnbaum measures of components, under the hypothesis of uniform percentage changes of parameters. The aging phenomena are introduced into the model by assuming exponential-linear or Weibull distributions for the failure probabilities. An algorithm based on a combination of MonteCarlo simulation and Cellular Automata is applied in order to evaluate the performance of a networked system, made up of source nodes, user nodes and directed edges subjected to failure and repair. Importance Sampling techniques are used for the estimation of the first and total order Differential Importance Measures through only one simulation of the system “operational life”. All the output variables are computed contemporaneously on the basis of the same sequence of the involved components, event types (failure or repair) and transition times. The failure/repair probabilities are forced to be the same for all components; the transition times are sampled from the unbiased probability distributions or it can be also forced, for instance, by assuring the occurrence of at least a failure within the system operational life. The algorithm allows considering different types of maintenance actions: corrective maintenance that can be performed either immediately upon the component failure or upon finding that the component has failed for hidden failures that are not detected until an inspection; and preventive maintenance, that can be performed upon a fixed interval. It is possible to use a restoration factor to determine the age of the component after a repair or any other maintenance action.

Two dimensional Lattice Boltzmann simulation of fluid flow through an idealized micro-structure of disordered media

This technical report discusses the application of Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) in the fluid flow simulation through porous filter-wall of disordered media. The diesel particulate filter (DPF) is an example of disordered media. DPF is developed as a cutting edge technology to reduce harmful particulate matter in the engine exhaust. Porous filter-wall of DPF traps these soot particles in the after-treatment of the exhaust gas. To examine the phenomena inside the DPF, researchers are looking forward to use the Lattice Boltzmann Method as a promising alternative simulation tool. The lattice Boltzmann method is comparatively a newer numerical scheme and can be used to simulate fluid flow for single-component single-phase, single-component multi-phase. It is also an excellent method for modelling flow through disordered media. The current work focuses on a single-phase fluid flow simulation inside the porous micro-structure using LBM. Firstly, the theory concerning the development of LBM is discussed. LBM evolution is always related to Lattice gas Cellular Automata (LGCA), but it is also shown that this method is a special discretized form of the continuous Boltzmann equation. Since all the simulations are conducted in two-dimensions, the equations developed are in reference with D2Q9 (two-dimensional 9-velocity) model. The artificially created porous micro-structure is used in this study. The flow simulations are conducted by considering air and CO2 gas as fluids. The numerical model used in this study is explained with a flowchart and the coding steps. The numerical code is constructed in MATLAB. Different types of boundary conditions and their importance is discussed separately. Also the equations specific to boundary conditions are derived. The pressure and velocity contours over the porous domain are studied and recorded. The results are compared with the published work. The permeability values obtained in this study can be fitted to the relation proposed by Nabovati [8], and the results are in excellent agreement within porosity range of 0.4 to 0.8.

Predictive oncology: a review of multidisciplinary, multiscale in silico modeling linking phenotype, morphology and growth.

Empirical evidence and theoretical studies suggest that the phenotype, i.e., cellular- and molecular-scale dynamics, including proliferation rate and adhesiveness due to microenvironmental factors and gene expression that govern tumor growth and invasiveness, also determine gross tumor-scale morphology. It has been difficult to quantify the relative effect of these links on disease progression and prognosis using conventional clinical and experimental methods and observables. As a result, successful individualized treatment of highly malignant and invasive cancers, such as glioblastoma, via surgical resection and chemotherapy cannot be offered and outcomes are generally poor. What is needed is a deterministic, quantifiable method to enable understanding of the connections between phenotype and tumor morphology. Here, we critically assess advantages and disadvantages of recent computational modeling efforts (e.g., continuum, discrete, and cellular automata models) that have pursued this understanding. Based on this assessment, we review a multiscale, i.e., from the molecular to the gross tumor scale, mathematical and computational "first-principle" approach based on mass conservation and other physical laws, such as employed in reaction-diffusion systems. Model variables describe known characteristics of tumor behavior, and parameters and functional relationships across scales are informed from in vitro, in vivo and ex vivo biology. We review the feasibility of this methodology that, once coupled to tumor imaging and tumor biopsy or cell culture data, should enable prediction of tumor growth and therapy outcome through quantification of the relation between the underlying dynamics and morphological characteristics. In particular, morphologic stability analysis of this mathematical model reveals that tumor cell patterning at the tumor-host interface is regulated by cell proliferation, adhesion and other phenotypic characteristics: histopathology information of tumor boundary can be inputted to the mathematical model and used as a phenotype-diagnostic tool to predict collective and individual tumor cell invasion of surrounding tissue. This approach further provides a means to deterministically test effects of novel and hypothetical therapy strategies on tumor behavior.

Agent-based modelling for cement hydration

The Agent-Based Modelling and simulation (ABM) is a rather new approach for studying complex systems withinteracting autonomous agents that has lately undergone great growth in various fields such as biology, physics, social science, economics and business. Efforts to model and simulate the highly complex cement hydration process have been made over the past 40 years, with the aim of predicting the performance of concrete and designing innovative and enhanced cementitious materials. The ABM presented here - based on previous work - focuses on the early stages of cement hydration by modelling the physical-chemical processes at the particle level. The model considers the cement hydration process as a time and 3D space system, involving multiple diffusing and reacting species of spherical particles. Chemical reactions are simulated by adaptively selecting discrete stochastic simulation for the appropriate reaction, whenever that is necessary. Interactions between particles are also considered. The model has been inspired by reported cellular automata?s approach which provides detailed predictions of cement microstructure at the expense of significant computational difficulty. The ABM approach herein seeks to bring about an optimal balance between accuracy and computational efficiency.

Scaling in geology: landforms and earthquakes.

Landforms and earthquakes appear to be extremely complex; yet, there is order in the complexity. Both satisfy fractal statistics in a variety of ways. A basic question is whether the fractal behavior is due to scale invariance or is the signature of a broadly applicable class of physical processes. Both landscape evolution and regional seismicity appear to be examples of self-organized critical phenomena. A variety of statistical models have been proposed to model landforms, including diffusion-limited aggregation, self-avoiding percolation, and cellular automata. Many authors have studied the behavior of multiple slider-block models, both in terms of the rupture of a fault to generate an earthquake and in terms of the interactions between faults associated with regional seismicity. The slider-block models exhibit a remarkably rich spectrum of behavior; two slider blocks can exhibit low-order chaotic behavior. Large numbers of slider blocks clearly exhibit self-organized critical behavior.

Interference between propagating changes and its effect on system failure

Computer-based, socio-technical systems projects are frequently failures. In particular, computer-based information systems often fail to live up to their promise. Part of the problem lies in the uncertainty of the effect of combining the subsystems that comprise the complete system; i.e. the system's emergent behaviour cannot be predicted from a knowledge of the subsystems. This paper suggests uncertainty management is a fundamental unifying concept in analysis and design of complex systems and goes on to indicate that this is due to the co-evolutionary nature of the requirements and implementation of socio-technical systems. The paper shows a model of the propagation of a system change that indicates that the introduction of two or more changes over time can cause chaotic emergent behaviour.

Models of collective cell spreading with variable cell aspect ratio : a motivation for degenerate diffusion models

Continuum diffusion models are often used to represent the collective motion of cell populations. Most previous studies have simply used linear diffusion to represent collective cell spreading, while others found that degenerate nonlinear diffusion provides a better match to experimental cell density profiles. In the cell modeling literature there is no guidance available with regard to which approach is more appropriate for representing the spreading of cell populations. Furthermore, there is no knowledge of particular experimental measurements that can be made to distinguish between situations where these two models are appropriate. Here we provide a link between individual-based and continuum models using a multi-scale approach in which we analyze the collective motion of a population of interacting agents in a generalized lattice-based exclusion process. For round agents that occupy a single lattice site, we find that the relevant continuum description of the system is a linear diffusion equation, whereas for elongated rod-shaped agents that occupy L adjacent lattice sites we find that the relevant continuum description is connected to the porous media equation (pme). The exponent in the nonlinear diffusivity function is related to the aspect ratio of the agents. Our work provides a physical connection between modeling collective cell spreading and the use of either the linear diffusion equation or the pme to represent cell density profiles. Results suggest that when using continuum models to represent cell population spreading, we should take care to account for variations in the cell aspect ratio because different aspect ratios lead to different continuum models.

Corrected mean-field models for spatially-dependent advection-diffusion-reaction phenomena

In the exclusion-process literature, mean-field models are often derived by assuming that the occupancy status of lattice sites is independent. Although this assumption is questionable, it is the foundation of many mean-field models. In this work we develop methods to relax the independence assumption for a range of discrete exclusion process-based mechanisms motivated by applications from cell biology. Previous investigations that focussed on relaxing the independence assumption have been limited to studying initially-uniform populations and ignored any spatial variations. By ignoring spatial variations these previous studies were greatly simplified due to translational invariance of the lattice. These previous corrected mean-field models could not be applied to many important problems in cell biology such as invasion waves of cells that are characterised by moving fronts. Here we propose generalised methods that relax the independence assumption for spatially inhomogeneous problems, leading to corrected mean-field descriptions of a range of exclusion process-based models that incorporate (i) unbiased motility, (ii) biased motility, and (iii) unbiased motility with agent birth and death processes. The corrected mean-field models derived here are applicable to spatially variable processes including invasion wave type problems. We show that there can be large deviations between simulation data and traditional mean-field models based on invoking the independence assumption. Furthermore, we show that the corrected mean-field models give an improved match to the simulation data in all cases considered.

In silico experimental modeling of cancer treatment

In silico experimental modeling of cancer involves combining findings from biological literature with computer-based models of biological systems in order to conduct investigations of hypotheses entirely in the computer laboratory. In this paper, we discuss the use of in silico modeling as a precursor to traditional clinical and laboratory research, allowing researchers to refine their experimental programs with an aim to reducing costs and increasing research efficiency. We explain the methodology of in silico experimental trials before providing an example of in silico modeling from the biomathematical literature with a view to promoting more widespread use and understanding of this research strategy.

Environmental Awareness in Game Agents

Agents make up an important part of game worlds, ranging from the characters and monsters that live in the world to the armies the player controls. Despite their importance, agents in current games rarely display an awareness of their environment or react appropriately, which severely detracts from the believability of the game. Most games use agents that have a basic awareness of the player and other agents, but are still unaware of important game events or environmental conditions. This article describes an agent design that combines cellular automata for environmental modeling with influence maps for agent decision-making. The result is simple, flexible game agents that are able to respond to dynamic changes to the environment (e.g., rain or fire) while pursuing a goal.