A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for random effects models in Bayesian sequential design

A computationally efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for the sequential design of experiments for the collection of block data described by mixed effects models. The difficulty in applying a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in such settings is the need to evaluate the observed data likelihood, which is typically intractable for all but linear Gaussian models. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to unbiasedly estimate the likelihood, and perform inference and make decisions based on an exact-approximate algorithm. Two estimates are proposed: using Quasi Monte Carlo methods and using the Laplace approximation with importance sampling. Both of these approaches can be computationally expensive, so we propose exploiting parallel computational architectures to ensure designs can be derived in a timely manner. We also extend our approach to allow for model uncertainty. This research is motivated by important pharmacological studies related to the treatment of critically ill patients.

Transdimensional sequential Monte Carlo using variational Bayes — SMCVB

A new transdimensional Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm called SM- CVB is proposed. In an SMC approach, a weighted sample of particles is generated from a sequence of probability distributions which ‘converge’ to the target distribution of interest, in this case a Bayesian posterior distri- bution. The approach is based on the use of variational Bayes to propose new particles at each iteration of the SMCVB algorithm in order to target the posterior more efficiently. The variational-Bayes-generated proposals are not limited to a fixed dimension. This means that the weighted particle sets that arise can have varying dimensions thereby allowing us the option to also estimate an appropriate dimension for the model. This novel algorithm is outlined within the context of finite mixture model estimation. This pro- vides a less computationally demanding alternative to using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo kernels within an SMC approach. We illustrate these ideas in a simulated data analysis and in applications.

A Monte-Carlo tree search in argumentation

Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a heuristic to search in large trees. We apply it to argumentative puzzles where MCTS pursues the best argumentation with respect to a set of arguments to be argued. To make our ideas as widely applicable as possible, we integrate MCTS to an abstract setting for argumentation where the content of arguments is left unspecified. Experimental results show the pertinence of this integration for learning argumentations by comparing it with a basic reinforcement learning.

Monte Carlo analysis of a puzzle game

When a puzzle game is created, its design parameters must be chosen to allow solvable and interesting challenges to be created for the player. We investigate the use of random sampling as a computationally inexpensive means of automated game analysis, to evaluate the BoxOff family of puzzle games. This analysis reveals useful insights into the game, such as the surprising fact that almost 100% of randomly generated challenges have a solution, but less than 10% will be solved using strictly random play, validating the inventor’s design choices. We show the 1D game to be trivial and the 3D game to be viable.

Genetic population structure of red snappers (Lutjanus malabaricus Bloch & Schneider, 1801 and Lutjanus erythropterus Bloch, 1790) in central and eastern Indonesia and northern Australia

The genetic population structure of red snapper Lutjanus malabaricus and Lutjanus erythropterus in eastern Indonesia and northern Australia was investigated by allozyme electrophoresis and sequence variation in the control region of mtDNA. Samples were collected from eight sites in Indonesia and four sites in northern Australia for both species. A total of 13 allozyme loci were scored. More variable loci were observed in L. malabaricus than in L. erythropterus. Sequence variation in the control region (left domain) of the mitochondrial genome was assessed by RFLP and direct sequencing. MtDNA haplotype diversity was high (L. erythropterus, 0.95 and L. malabaricus, 0.97), as was intraspecific sequence divergence, (L. erythropterus, 0.0-12.5% and L. malabaricus, 0.0-9.5%). The pattern of mtDNA haplotype frequencies grouped both species into two broad fisheries stocks with a genetic boundary either between Kupang and Sape (L. malabaricus) or between Kupang and Australian Timor Sea (L. erythropertus). The allozyme analyses revealed similar boundaries for L. erythropterus. Seven allozymes stocks compared to two mtDNA stocks of L. malabaricus including Ambon, which was not sampled with mtDNA, however, were reported. Possible reasons for differences in discrimination between the methods include: i) increased power of multiple allozyme loci over the single mtDNA locus, ii) insufficient gene sampling in the mtDNA control region and iii) relative evolutionary dynamics of nuclear (allozyme loci) and mitochondrial DNA in these taxa. Allozyme and haplotype data did not distinguish separate stocks among the four Australian locations nor the central Indonesian (Bali and Sape locations) for both L. malabaricus and L. erythropterus.

A comparison of plotless density estimators using Monte Carlo simulation on totally enumerated field data sets

Background: Plotless density estimators are those that are based on distance measures rather than counts per unit area (quadrats or plots) to estimate the density of some usually stationary event, e.g. burrow openings, damage to plant stems, etc. These estimators typically use distance measures between events and from random points to events to derive an estimate of density. The error and bias of these estimators for the various spatial patterns found in nature have been examined using simulated populations only. In this study we investigated eight plotless density estimators to determine which were robust across a wide range of data sets from fully mapped field sites. They covered a wide range of situations including animal damage to rice and corn, nest locations, active rodent burrows and distribution of plants. Monte Carlo simulations were applied to sample the data sets, and in all cases the error of the estimate (measured as relative root mean square error) was reduced with increasing sample size. The method of calculation and ease of use in the field were also used to judge the usefulness of the estimator. Estimators were evaluated in their original published forms, although the variable area transect (VAT) and ordered distance methods have been the subjects of optimization studies. Results: An estimator that was a compound of three basic distance estimators was found to be robust across all spatial patterns for sample sizes of 25 or greater. The same field methodology can be used either with the basic distance formula or the formula used with the Kendall-Moran estimator in which case a reduction in error may be gained for sample sizes less than 25, however, there is no improvement for larger sample sizes. The variable area transect (VAT) method performed moderately well, is easy to use in the field, and its calculations easy to undertake. Conclusion: Plotless density estimators can provide an estimate of density in situations where it would not be practical to layout a plot or quadrat and can in many cases reduce the workload in the field.

Modeling dynamic demand response using Monte Carlo simulation and interval mathematics for boundary estimation

With the rapid development of various technologies and applications in smart grid implementation, demand response has attracted growing research interests because of its potentials in enhancing power grid reliability with reduced system operation costs. This paper presents a new demand response model with elastic economic dispatch in a locational marginal pricing market. It models system economic dispatch as a feedback control process, and introduces a flexible and adjustable load cost as a controlled signal to adjust demand response. Compared with the conventional “one time use” static load dispatch model, this dynamic feedback demand response model may adjust the load to a desired level in a finite number of time steps and a proof of convergence is provided. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation and boundary calculation using interval mathematics are applied for describing uncertainty of end-user's response to an independent system operator's expected dispatch. A numerical analysis based on the modified Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland power pool five-bus system is introduced for simulation and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. System operators may use the proposed model to obtain insights in demand response processes for their decision-making regarding system load levels and operation conditions.

An investigation of solid adamantane by a modified isothermal-isobaric ensemble Monte Carlo simulation

Isothermal-isobaric ensemble Monte Carlo simulation studies of adamantane have been carried out at different temperatures. Thermodynamic properties and radial distribution functions calculated by employing a simple potential model based on sitesite interactions show good agreement with experiment and suggest that the solid is orientationally disordered at high temperatures.

A Monte Carlo study of crystal structure transformations

The Metropolis algorithm has been generalized to allow for the variation of shape and size of the MC cell. A calculation using different potentials illustrates how the generalized method can be used for the study of crystal structure transformations. A restricted MC integration in the nine dimensional space of the cell components also leads to the stable structure for the Lennard-Jones potential.

Glass-Transition In Isopentane - A Monte-Carlo Study

Monte Carlo simulations with realistic interaction potentials have been carried out on isopentane to investigate the glass transition. Intermolecular pair-correlation functions of the glass show distinct differences from those of the liquid, the CH-CH pair-correlation function being uniquely different from the other pair-correlation functions. The coordination number of the glass is higher than that of the liquid, and the packing in the glass seems to be mainly governed by the geometrical constraints of the molecule. Annealing affects the properties of the glass significantly.

A conditionally linearized Monte Carlo filter in non-linear structural dynamics

State and parameter estimations of non-linear dynamical systems, based on incomplete and noisy measurements, are considered using Monte Carlo simulations. Given the measurements. the proposed method obtains the marginalized posterior distribution of an appropriately chosen (ideally small) subset of the state vector using a particle filter. Samples (particles) of the marginalized states are then used to construct a family of conditionally linearized system of equations and thus obtain the posterior distribution of the states using a bank of Kalman filters. Discrete process equations for the marginalized states are derived through truncated Ito-Taylor expansions. Increased analyticity and reduced dispersion of weights computed over a smaller sample space of marginalized states are the key features of the filter that help achieve smaller sample variance of the estimates. Numerical illustrations are provided for state/parameter estimations of a Duffing oscillator and a 3-DOF non-linear oscillator. Performance of the filter in parameter estimation is also assessed using measurements obtained through experiments on simple models in the laboratory. Despite an added computational cost, the results verify that the proposed filter generally produces estimates with lower sample variance over the standard sequential importance sampling (SIS) filter.

Monte Carlo simulation of mictomagnets

Monte Carlo simulations of a binary alloy with impurity concentrations between 20 and 45 at.% have been carried out. The proportion of large clusters relative to that of small clusters increases with the number of MC diffusion steps as well as impurity concentration. Magnetic susceptibility peaks become more prominent and occur at higher temperatures with increasing impurity concentration. The different peaks in the susceptibility and specific heat curves seem to correspond to different sized clusters. A freezing model would explain the observed behaviour with the large clusters freezing first and the small clusters contributing to susceptibility (specific heat) peaks at lower temperatures.

Structure, energetics and diffusion properties of isomers of trimethyl benzene in beta zeolite: Uptake and Monte Carlo simulation study

A Monte Carlo study along with experimental uptake measurements of 1,2,3-trimethyl benzene, 1,2,4-trimethyl benzene and 1,3,5-trimethyl benzene (TMB) in beta zeolite is reported. The TraPPE potential has been employed for hydrocarbon interaction and harmonic potential of Demontis for modeling framework of the zeolite. Structure, energetics and dynamics of TMB in zeolite beta from Monte Carlo runs reveal interesting information about the diameter, properties of these isomers on confinement. Of the three isomers, 135TMB is supposed to have the largest diameter. It is seen TraPPE with Demontis potential predicts a restricted motion of 135TMB in the channels of zeolite beta.Experimentally, 135TMB has the highest transport diffusivity whereas MID results suggest this has the lowest self diffusivity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. Ail rights reserved.

Bayesian model comparison in cosmology with Population Monte Carlo

We use Bayesian model selection techniques to test extensions of the standard flat LambdaCDM paradigm. Dark-energy and curvature scenarios, and primordial perturbation models are considered. To that end, we calculate the Bayesian evidence in favour of each model using Population Monte Carlo (PMC), a new adaptive sampling technique which was recently applied in a cosmological context. The Bayesian evidence is immediately available from the PMC sample used for parameter estimation without further computational effort, and it comes with an associated error evaluation. Besides, it provides an unbiased estimator of the evidence after any fixed number of iterations and it is naturally parallelizable, in contrast with MCMC and nested sampling methods. By comparison with analytical predictions for simulated data, we show that our results obtained with PMC are reliable and robust. The variability in the evidence evaluation and the stability for various cases are estimated both from simulations and from data. For the cases we consider, the log-evidence is calculated with a precision of better than 0.08. Using a combined set of recent CMB, SNIa and BAO data, we find inconclusive evidence between flat LambdaCDM and simple dark-energy models. A curved Universe is moderately to strongly disfavoured with respect to a flat cosmology. Using physically well-motivated priors within the slow-roll approximation of inflation, we find a weak preference for a running spectral index. A Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum is weakly disfavoured. With the current data, tensor modes are not detected; the large prior volume on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r results in moderate evidence in favour of r=0.