Less-is-more effects in knowledge-based heuristic inference

Inference on the basis of recognition alone is assumed to occur prior to accessing further information (Pachur & Hertwig, 2006). A counterintuitive result of this is the “less-is-more” effect: a drop in the accuracy with which choices are made as to which of two or more items scores highest on a given criterion as more items are learned (Frosch, Beaman & McCloy, 2007; Goldstein & Gigerenzer, 2002). In this paper, we show that less-is-more effects are not unique to recognition-based inference but can also be observed with a knowledge-based strategy provided two assumptions, limited information and differential access, are met. The LINDA model which embodies these assumptions is presented. Analysis of the less-is-more effects predicted by LINDA and by recognition-driven inference shows that these occur for similar reasons and casts doubt upon the “special” nature of recognition-based inference. Suggestions are made for empirical tests to compare knowledge-based and recognition-based less-is-more effects

Impact of the earthworm Lumbricus terrestris (L.) on As, Cu, Pb and Zn mobility and speciation in contaminated soils

To assess the risks that contaminated soils pose to the environment properly a greater understanding of how soil biota influence the mobility of metal(loid)s in soils is required. Lumbricus terrestris L. were incubated in three soils contaminated with As, Cu, Pb and Zn. The concentration and speciation of metal(loid)s in pore waters and the mobility and partitioning in casts were compared with earthworm-free soil. Generally the concentrations of water extractable metal(loid)s in earthworm casts were greater than in earthworm-free soil. The impact of the earthworms on concentration and speciation in pore waters was soil and metal specific and could be explained either by earthworm induced changes in soil pH or soluble organic carbon. The mobilisation of metal(loid)s in the environment by earthworm activity may allow for leaching or uptake into biota.

Impact of gut passage and mucus secretion by the earthworm Lumbricus terrestris on mobility and speciation of arsenic in contaminated soil

Earthworms inhabiting arsenic contaminated soils may accelerate the leaching of As into surface and ground waters. We carried out three experiments to determine the impact of passage of As contaminated soil (1150 mgAs kg−1) through the gut of the earthworm Lumbricus terrestris on the mobility and speciation of As and the effects of earthworm mucus on As mobility. The concentration of water soluble As in soil increased (from 1.6 to 18 mg kg−1) after passage through the earthworm gut. Casts that were aged for 56 days still contained more than nine times greater water soluble As than bulk earthworm inhabited soil. Changes were due to increases in As(V) mobility, with no change in As(III). Dilute mucus extracts reduced As mobility through the formation of As-amino acid-iron oxide ternary complexes. More concentrated mucus extracts increased As mobility. These changes, together with those due to the passage through the gut, were due to increases in pH, phosphate and soluble organic carbon. The mobilisation of As from contaminated soils in the environment by cast production and mucus secretion may allow for accelerated leaching or uptake into biota which is underestimated when bulk soil samples are analysed and the influence of soil biota ignored.

Commercial property loan valuations in the UK : implications of current trends in practice and liability

This paper is the second of two papers which aim to examine the major legal liability implications of changes to the commercial property loan valuation process caused by the recession in the UK property market and to make recommendations to valuers and their professional institutions to improve the quality of the process and the result. The objectives of this paper are to address a number of the practical implications of changes to the loan valuation process within the context of legal liability. The results of an interview survey of lenders and valuers are reported and analysed. The survey examined the loan valuation process including the selection and instruction of valuers, bases of valuation and valuation reporting. In the selection and instruction process, the findings of the survey reveal two potential problems within the valuer/lender relationship. First, valuers still occasionally accept instructions from borrowers and this could lead to a conflict of interest as lenders may rely on the survey. Second, the occasional lack of formal instructions prior to the delivery of reports casts doubt on the valuer’s ability to correctly identify the needs of clients. Regarding the basis of valuation, it was found that valuers are providing valuations on bases which they do not think are appropriate. Valuers may be legally liable if they do not inform clients of their reservations and this situation must be urgently addressed. The survey also confirms previous research that valuation reports are considered to be light on contextual information concerning markets. The paper concludes by making a number of specific recommendations concerning possible improvements to the commercial property loan valuation process.

Property company performance and real interest rates: a regime-switching approach

Linear models of property market performance may be misspecified if there exist distinct states where the market drivers behave in different ways. This paper examines the applicability of non-linear regime-based models. A Self Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) model is applied to property company share data, using the real rate of interest to define regimes. Distinct regimes appear exhibiting markedly different market behaviour. The model both casts doubt on the specification of conventional linear models and offers the possibility of developing effective trading rules for real estate equities.

The impact of price promotions on producer strategies in markets with large product heterogeneity

Although current research indicates that increasing the number of options has negative effects on the cognitive ability of consumers, little understanding has been given to the consequences on producers and their strategic behavior. This article tests whether a large portfolio of products is beneficial to producers by observing UK consumer response to price promotions. The article shows that discounts induce mainly segment switching (74% of the total impact), with a limited effect on stockpiling (26%) and no impact on purchase incidence. Consequently, consumers prefer to “follow the discount” rather than purchase multiple units of the same wine. This result seems to explain the current structure of the market, and suggests that discounts may conflict with segment loyalty, a situation that disfavors producers, particularly in very populated segments. Results also casts doubts on the economic sustainability of competition based on an intense product differentiation in the wine sector.

GTP binding and intramolecular regulation by the ROC domain of Death Associated Protein Kinase 1

The ROCO proteins are a family of large, multidomain proteins characterised by the presence of a Ras of complex proteins (ROC) domain followed by a COR, or C-terminal of ROC, domain. It has previously been shown that the ROC domain of the human ROCO protein Leucine Rich Repeat Kinase 2 (LRRK2) controls its kinase activity. Here, the ability of the ROC domain of another human ROCO protein, Death Associated Protein Kinase 1 (DAPK1), to bind GTP and control its kinase activity has been evaluated. In contrast to LRRK2, loss of GTP binding by DAPK1 does not result in loss of kinase activity, instead acting to modulate this activity. These data highlight the ROC domain of DAPK1 as a target for modifiers of this proteins function, and casts light on the role of ROC domains as intramolecular regulators in complex proteins with implications for a broad range of human diseases.

Models, moulds and mass production: the mechanics of stylistic influence form the Mediterranean to Bactria

Classical Greek and Roman influence on the material culture of Central Asia and northwestern India is often considered in the abstract. This article attempts to examine the mechanisms of craft production and movement of artisans and objects which made such influence possible, through four case studies: (1) Mould-made ceramics in Hellenistic eastern Bactria; (2) Plaster casts used in the production of metalware from Begram; (3) Terracotta figurines and the moulds used to produce them, from various archaeological sites; and (4) Mass production of identical gold adornments in the nomadic tombs from Tillya Tepe. The implications of such techniques for our understanding of the development of Gandhāran art are also discussed.

Heme-induced biomarkers associated with red meat promotion of colon cancer are not modulated by the intake of nitrite

Red and processed meat consumption is associated with the risk of colorectal cancer. Three hypotheses are proposed to explain this association, via heme-induced oxidation of fat, heterocyclic amines, or N-nitroso compounds. Rats have often been used to study these hypotheses, but the lack of enterosalivary cycle of nitrate in rats casts doubt on the relevance of this animal model to predict nitroso- and heme-associated human colon carcinogenesis. The present study was thus designed to clarify whether a nitrite intake that mimics the enterosalivary cycle can modulate hemeinduced nitrosation and fat peroxidation. This study shows that, in contrast with the starting hypothesis, drinking water added with nitrite to mimic the salivary nitrite content did not change the effect of hemoglobin on biochemicalmarkers linked to colon carcinogenesis, notably lipid peroxidation and cytotoxic activity in the colon of rat. However, ingested sodium nitrite increased fecal nitrosocompounds level, but their fecal concentration and their nature (iron-nitrosyl) would probably not be associated with an increased risk of cancer.We thus suggest that the rat model could be relevant for study the effect of red meat on colon carcinogenesis, in spite of the lack of nitrite in the saliva of rats.

Credit and liquidity components of corporate CDS spreads

This paper investigates the role of credit and liquidity factors in explaining corporate CDS price changes during normal and crisis periods. We find that liquidity risk is more important than firm-specific credit risk regardless of market conditions. Moreover, in the period prior to the recent “Great Recession” credit risk plays no role in explaining CDS price changes. The dominance of liquidity effects casts serious doubts on the relevance of CDS price changes as an indicator of default risk dynamics. Our results show how multiple liquidity factors including firm specific and aggregate liquidity proxies as well as an asymmetric information measure are critical determinants of CDS price variations. In particular, the impact of informed traders on the CDS price increases when markets are characterised by higher uncertainty, which supports concerns of insider trading during the crisis.

Neural correlates of cognitive dissonance and choice-induced preference change

According to many modern economic theories, actions simply reflect an individual's preferences, whereas a psychological phenomenon called “cognitive dissonance” claims that actions can also create preference. Cognitive dissonance theory states that after making a difficult choice between two equally preferred items, the act of rejecting a favorite item induces an uncomfortable feeling (cognitive dissonance), which in turn motivates individuals to change their preferences to match their prior decision (i.e., reducing preference for rejected items). Recently, however, Chen and Risen [Chen K, Risen J (2010) J Pers Soc Psychol 99:573–594] pointed out a serious methodological problem, which casts a doubt on the very existence of this choice-induced preference change as studied over the past 50 y. Here, using a proper control condition and two measures of preferences (self-report and brain activity), we found that the mere act of making a choice can change self-report preference as well as its neural representation (i.e., striatum activity), thus providing strong evidence for choice-induced preference change. Furthermore, our data indicate that the anterior cingulate cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex tracked the degree of cognitive dissonance on a trial-by-trial basis. Our findings provide important insights into the neural basis of how actions can alter an individual's preferences.

Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5—4.5°C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850), but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarize attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.

A Longitudinal Three-Center Study of Dental Arch Relationship in Patients With Bilateral Cleft Lip and Palate

Objective: To compare and evaluate longitudinally the dental arch relationships from 4.5 to 13.5 years of age with the Bauru-BCLP Yardstick in a large sample of patients with bilateral cleft lip and palate (BCLP). Design: Retrospective longitudinal intercenter outcome study. Patients: Dental casts of 204 consecutive patients with complete BCLP were evaluated at 6, 9, and 12 years of age. All models were identified only by random identification numbers. Setting: Three cleft palate centers with different treatment protocols. Main Outcome Measures: Dental arch relationships were categorized with the Bauru-BCLP yardstick. Increments for each interval (from 6 to 9 years, 6 to 12 years, and 9 to 12 years) were analyzed by logistic and linear regression models. Results: There were no significant differences in outcome measures between the centers at age 12 or at age 9. At age 6, center B showed significantly better results (p = .027), but this difference diminished as the yardstick score for this group increased over time (linear regression analysis), the difference with the reference category (center C, boys) for the intervals 6 to 12 and 9 to 12 years being 10.4% (p = .041) and 12.9% (p = .009), respectively. Conclusions: Despite different treatment protocols, dental arch relationships in the three centers were comparable in final scores at age 9 and 12 years. Delaying hard palate closure and employing infant orthopedics did not appear to be advantageous in the long run. Premaxillary osteotomy employed in center B appeared to be associated with less favorable development of the dental arch relationship between 9 and 12 years.

Disrupting assumptions about vernacular education in Papua New Guinea

During 1999 and 2000, the author was employed by the Papua New Guinea Department of Education. Part of her duties at the Papua New Guinea Education Institute was to deliver in-service professional development programs to teachers who were implementing the country’s new curriculum. A focus of this curriculum is the use of two languages in early education; it also responds to the notion of the “bridging years” when children in Papua New Guinea develop skills and knowledge in two cultures and two languages. In this article, the author casts a critical gaze on the implications of developing literacy technologies for oral languages in Papua New Guinea. She uses examples drawn from the in-service course she developed for practicing teachers, as well as referring to theoretical understandings of the importance of literacy practices being learned in social and cultural contexts.

Edward Shils' theory of tradition

Edward Shils presented his book Tradition (1981) as the first extensive study of the subject. This article casts light on Shils' multifaceted understanding of tradition, comprising pragmatic, Burkean, veridical, and evolutionist perspectives. His typology of traditions is noted, and his view of institutional bearers of tradition described. In assessing Shils' theory, however, we find that it overreaches, collapsing differences that exist between traditions, transmissions, and the traditional.