Assessing the spatial and temporal variation in the skill of precipitation forecasts from an NWP model

It is becoming increasingly important to be able to verify the spatial accuracy of precipitation forecasts, especially with the advent of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this article, the fractions skill score (FSS) approach has been used to perform a scale-selective evaluation of precipitation forecasts during 2003 from the Met Office mesoscale model (12 km grid length). The investigation shows how skill varies with spatial scale, the scales over which the data assimilation (DA) adds most skill, and how the loss of that skill is dependent on both the spatial scale and the rainfall coverage being examined. Although these results come from a specific model, they demonstrate how this verification approach can provide a quantitative assessment of the spatial behaviour of new finer-resolution models and DA techniques.

A spatial view of ensemble spread in convection permitting ensembles

With movement toward kilometer-scale ensembles, new techniques are needed for their characterization. A new methodology is presented for detailed spatial ensemble characterization using the fractions skill score (FSS). To evaluate spatial forecast differences, the average and standard deviation are taken of the FSS calculated over all ensemble member–member pairs at different scales and lead times. These methods were found to give important information about the ensemble behavior allowing the identification of useful spatial scales, spinup times for the model, and upscale growth of errors and forecast differences. The ensemble spread was found to be highly dependent on the spatial scales considered and the threshold applied to the field. High thresholds picked out localized and intense values that gave large temporal variability in ensemble spread: local processes and undersampling dominate for these thresholds. For lower thresholds the ensemble spread increases with time as differences between the ensemble members upscale. Two convective cases were investigated based on the Met Office United Model run at 2.2-km resolution. Different ensemble types were considered: ensembles produced using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) and an ensemble produced using different model physics configurations. Comparison of the MOGREPS and multiphysics ensembles demonstrated the utility of spatial ensemble evaluation techniques for assessing the impact of different perturbation strategies and the need for assessing spread at different, believable, spatial scales.

Spatial evaluation of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite observations

The decision to close airspace in the event of a volcanic eruption is based on hazard maps of predicted ash extent. These are produced using output from volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD)models. In this paper an objectivemetric to evaluate the spatial accuracy of VATD simulations relative to satellite retrievals of volcanic ash is presented. The 5 metric is based on the fractions skill score (FSS). Thismeasure of skill provides more information than traditional point-bypoint metrics, such as success index and Pearson correlation coefficient, as it takes into the account spatial scale overwhich skill is being assessed. The FSS determines the scale overwhich a simulation has skill and can differentiate between a "near miss" and a forecast that is badly misplaced. The 10 idealised scenarios presented show that even simulations with considerable displacement errors have useful skill when evaluated over neighbourhood scales of 200–700km2. This method could be used to compare forecasts produced by different VATDs or using different model parameters, assess the impact of assimilating satellite retrieved ash data and evaluate VATD forecasts over a long time period.

Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information

In order to increase overall transparency on key operational information, power transmission system operators publish an increasing amount of fundamental data, including forecasts of electricity demand and available capacity. We employ a fundamental model for electricity prices which lends itself well to integrating such forecasts, while retaining ease of implementation and tractability to allow for analytic derivatives pricing formulae. In an extensive futures pricing study, the pricing performance of our model is shown to further improve based on the inclusion of electricity demand and capacity forecasts, thus confirming the general importance of forward-looking information for electricity derivatives pricing. However, we also find that the usefulness of integrating forecast data into the pricing approach is primarily limited to those periods during which electricity prices are highly sensitive to demand or available capacity, whereas the impact is less visible when fuel prices are the primary underlying driver to prices instead.

Handling of neutral information by aggregation operators

We generalize the notion of a neutral element of aggregation operators. Our construction involves tuples of values that are neutral with respect to the result of aggregation. Neutral tuples are useful to model situations in which information from different sources, or preferences of several decision makers, cancel each other. We examine many popular classes of aggregation operators in respect to their neutral sets, and also construct new aggregation operators with predefined neutral sets.

Absorbent tuples of aggregation operators

We generalize the notion of an absorbent element of aggregation operators. Our construction involves tuples of values that decide the result of aggregation. Absorbent tuples are useful to model situations in which certain decision makers may decide the outcome irrespective of the opinion of the others. We examine the most important classes of aggregation operators in respect to their absorbent tuples, and also construct new aggregation operators with predefined sets of absorbent tuples.

Construction of aggregation functions from data using linear programming

This article examines the construction of aggregation functions from data by minimizing the least absolute deviation criterion. We formulate various instances of such problems as linear programming problems. We consider the cases in which the data are provided as intervals, and the outputs ordering needs to be preserved, and show that linear programming formulation is valid for such cases. This feature is very valuable in practice, since the standard simplex method can be used.

Aggregation functions based on penalties

This article studies a large class of averaging aggregation functions based on minimizing a distance from the vector of inputs, or equivalently, minimizing a penalty imposed for deviations of individual inputs from the aggregated value. We provide a systematization of various types of penalty based aggregation functions, and show how many special cases arise as the result. We show how new aggregation functions can be constructed either analytically or numerically and provide many examples. We establish connection with the maximum likelihood principle, and present tools for averaging experimental noisy data with distinct noise distributions.

On Lipschitz properties of generated aggregation functions

This article discusses Lipschitz properties of generated aggregation functions. Such generated functions include triangular norms and conorms, quasi-arithmetic means, uninorms, nullnorms and continuous generated functions with a neutral element. The Lipschitz property guarantees stability of aggregation operations with respect to input inaccuracies, and is important for applications. We provide verifiable sufficient conditions to determine when a generated aggregation function holds the k-Lipschitz property, and calculate the Lipschitz constants of power means. We also establish sufficient conditions which guarantee that a generated aggregation function is not Lipschitz. We found the only 1-Lipschitz generated function with a neutral element e ∈]0, 1[.

Generalized Bonferroni mean operators in multi-criteria aggregation

In this paper we provide a systematic investigation of a family of composed aggregation functions which generalize the Bonferroni mean. Such extensions of the Bonferroni mean are capable of modeling the concepts of hard and soft partial conjunction and disjunction as well as that of k-tolerance and k-intolerance. There are several interesting special cases with quite an intuitive interpretation for application.

The median and its extensions

We review various representations of the median and related aggregation functions. An advantage of the median is that it discards extreme values of the inputs, and hence exhibits a better central tendency than the arithmetic mean. However, the value of the median depends on only one or two central inputs. Our aim is to design median-like aggregation functions whose value depends on several central inputs. Such functions will preserve the stability of the median against extreme values, but will take more inputs into account. A method based on graduation curves is presented.

Corporate sustainability reporting of major commercial banks in line with GRI : Bangladesh evidence

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the tendencies of sustainability reporting by major commercial banks in Bangladesh in comparison with global sustainability reporting indicators outlined in the GRI framework together with banks' predilection toward reporting 16 GRI financial service sector (FSS) specific performance indicators.

Design/methodology/approach – Based on the GRI G3 guidelines, the paper investigated banks' reporting in five broad areas of sustainability, such as environment, labour practices and decent works, product responsibility, human rights and society. The 2008/2009 annual reports of 12 major commercial banks listed on Dhaka stock exchange were analysed and coded using a content-based technique.

Findings – The results show that information on society is addressed most extensively with regard to extent of reporting. This is followed by the disclosures prepared on decent works and labour practices and environmental issues. Furthermore, the disclosures of product responsibility information and the information for human rights are rather scarce in banks' reporting; on the subject of FSS-specific disclosures, only seven items out of 16 are disclosed by all sample banks.

Research limitations/implications – The findings of the study indicate that Bangladeshi commercial banks' social disclosures could develop in this style to become more holistic and over time (in association with the country's central bank involvement) to resemble a type of structured reporting to the point where they are properly labelled per se.

Originality/value – The study contributes to the social disclosure literature, in particular in a developing countries banking sector context, seeing as it disseminates evidence of the standing on social disclosures practices at the level of GRI with developing countries' banks data.