Theory-based self-management programs for promoting recovery in community-dwelling stroke survivors : a systematic review

Background Post-stroke recovery is demanding. Increasing studies have examined the effectiveness of self-management programs for stroke survivors. However no systematic review has been conducted to summarize the effectiveness of theory-based stroke self-management programs. Objectives The aim is to present the best available research evidence about effectiveness of theory-based self-management programs on community-dwelling stroke survivors’ recovery. Inclusion criteria Types of participants All community-residing adults aged 18 years or above, and had a clinical diagnosis of stroke. Types of interventions Studies which examined effectiveness of a self-management program underpinned by a theoretical or conceptual framework for community-dwelling stroke survivors. Types of studies Randomized controlled trials. Types of outcomes Primary outcomes included health-related quality of life and self-management behaviors. Secondary outcomes included physical (activities of daily living), psychological (self-efficacy, depressive symptoms), and social outcomes (community reintegration, perceived social support). Search Strategy A three-step approach was adopted to identify all relevant published and unpublished studies in English or Chinese. Methodological quality The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal checklist for experimental studies. Data Collection A standardized JBI data extraction form was used. There was no disagreement between the two reviewers on the data extraction results. Data Synthesis There were incomplete details about the number of participants and the results in two studies, which makes it impossible to perform meta-analysis. A narrative summary of the effectiveness of stroke self-management programs is presented. Results Three studies were included. The key issues of concern in methodological quality included insufficient information about random assignment, allocation concealment, reliability and validity of the measuring instruments, absence of intention-to-treat analysis, and small sample sizes. The three programs were designed based on the Stanford Chronic Disease Self-management program and were underpinned by the principles of self-efficacy. One study showed improvement in the intervention group in family and social roles three months after program completion, and work productivity at six months as measured by the Stroke Specific Quality of Life Scale (SSQOL). The intervention group also had an increased mean self-efficacy score in communicating with physicians six months after program completion. The mean changes from baseline in these variables were significantly different from the control group. No significant difference was found in time spent in aerobic exercise between the intervention and control groups at three and six months after program completion. Another study, using SSQOL, showed a significant interaction effect by treatment and time on family roles, fine motor tasks, self-care, and work productivity. However there was no significant interaction by treatment and time on self-efficacy. The third study showed improvement in quality of life, community participation, and depressive symptoms among the participants receiving the stroke self-management program, Stanford Chronic Disease Self-management program, or usual care six months after program completion. However, there was no significant difference between the groups. Conclusions There is inconclusive evidence about the effectiveness of theory-based stroke self-management programs on community-dwelling stroke survivors’ recovery. However the preliminary evidence suggests potential benefits in improving stroke survivors’ quality of life and self-efficacy.

Inhibition of the JAK2/STAT3 pathway in ovarian cancer results in the loss of cancer stem cell-like characteristics and a reduced tumor burden

Background Current treatment of ovarian cancer patients with chemotherapy leaves behind a residual tumor which results in recurrent ovarian cancer within a short time frame. We have previously demonstrated that a single short-term treatment of ovarian cancer cells with chemotherapy in vitro resulted in a cancer stem cell (CSC)-like enriched residual population which generated significantly greater tumor burden compared to the tumor burden generated by control untreated cells. In this report we looked at the mechanisms of the enrichment of CSC-like residual cells in response to paclitaxel treatment. Methods The mechanism of survival of paclitaxel-treated residual cells at a growth inhibitory concentration of 50% (GI50) was determined on isolated tumor cells from the ascites of recurrent ovarian cancer patients and HEY ovarian cancer cell line by in vitro assays and in a mouse xenograft model. Results Treatment of isolated tumor cells from the ascites of ovarian cancer patients and HEY ovarian cancer cell line with paclitaxel resulted in a CSC-like residual population which coincided with the activation of Janus activated kinase 2 (JAK2) and signal transducer and activation of transcription 3 (STAT3) pathway in paclitaxel surviving cells. Both paclitaxel-induced JAK2/STAT3 activation and CSC-like characteristics were inhibited by a low dose JAK2-specific small molecule inhibitor CYT387 (1 μM) in vitro. Subsequent, in vivo transplantation of paclitaxel and CYT387-treated HEY cells in mice resulted in a significantly reduced tumor burden compared to that seen with paclitaxel only-treated transplanted cells. In vitro analysis of tumor xenografts at protein and mRNA levels demonstrated a loss of CSC-like markers and CA125 expression in paclitaxel and CYT387-treated cell-derived xenografts, compared to paclitaxel only-treated cell-derived xenografts. These results were consistent with significantly reduced activation of JAK2 and STAT3 in paclitaxel and CYT387-treated cell-derived xenografts compared to paclitaxel only-treated cell derived xenografts. Conclusions This proof of principle study demonstrates that inhibition of the JAK2/STAT3 pathway by the addition of CYT387 suppresses the ‘stemness’ profile in chemotherapy-treated residual cells in vitro, which is replicated in vivo, leading to a reduced tumor burden. These findings have important implications for ovarian cancer patients who are treated with taxane and/or platinum-based therapies. Keywords: Ovarian carcinoma, Cancer stem cell, Metastasis, Ascites, Chemoresistance, Recurrence, JAK2/STAT3 pathway

Reliability in the Parameterization of the Functional Reach Test in Elderly Stroke Patients: A Pilot Study

BACKGROUND: Postural instability is one of the major complications found in stroke survivors. Parameterising the functional reach test (FRT) could be useful in clinical practice and basic research. OBJECTIVES: To analyse the reliability, sensitivity, and specificity in the FRT parameterisation using inertial sensors for recording kinematic variables in patients who have suffered a stroke. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. While performing FRT, two inertial sensors were placed on the patient's back (lumbar and trunk). PARTICIPANTS: Five subjects over 65 who suffer from a stroke. MEASUREMENTS: FRT measures, lumbosacral/thoracic maximum angular displacement, maximum time of lumbosacral/thoracic angular displacement, time return initial position, and total time. Speed and acceleration of the movements were calculated indirectly. RESULTS: FRT measure is  12.75±2.06 cm. Intrasubject reliability values range from 0.829 (time to return initial position (lumbar sensor)) to 0.891 (lumbosacral maximum angular displacement). Intersubject reliability values range from 0.821 (time to return initial position (lumbar sensor)) to 0.883 (lumbosacral maximum angular displacement). FRT's reliability was 0.987 (0.983-0.992) and 0.983 (0.979-0.989) intersubject and intrasubject, respectively. CONCLUSION: The main conclusion could be that the inertial sensors are a tool with excellent reliability and validity in the parameterization of the FRT in people who have had a stroke.

The contribution of major depression to the global burden of ischemic heart disease : a comparative risk assessment

Background Cardiovascular disease and mental health both hold enormous public health importance, both ranking highly in results of the recent Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). For the first time, the GBD 2010 has systematically and quantitatively assessed major depression as an independent risk factor for the development of ischemic heart disease (IHD) using comparative risk assessment methodology. Methods A pooled relative risk (RR) was calculated from studies identified through a systematic review with strict inclusion criteria designed to provide evidence of independent risk factor status. Accepted case definitions of depression include diagnosis by a clinician or by non-clinician raters adhering to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or International Classification of Diseases (ICD) classifications. We therefore refer to the exposure in this paper as major depression as opposed to the DSM-IV category of major depressive disorder (MDD). The population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated using the pooled RR estimate. Attributable burden was calculated by multiplying the PAF by the underlying burden of IHD estimated as part of GBD 2010. Results The pooled relative risk of developing IHD in those with major depression was 1.56 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.87). Globally there were almost 4 million estimated IHD disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which can be attributed to major depression in 2010; 3.5 million years of life lost and 250,000 years of life lived with a disability. These findings highlight a previously underestimated mortality component of the burden of major depression. As a proportion of overall IHD burden, 2.95% (95% CI 1.48 to 4.46%) of IHD DALYs were estimated to be attributable to MDD in 2010. Eastern Europe and North Africa/Middle East demonstrate the highest proportion with Asia Pacific, high income representing the lowest. Conclusions The present work comprises the most robust systematic review of its kind to date. The key finding that major depression may be responsible for approximately 3% of global IHD DALYs warrants assessment for depression in patients at high risk of developing IHD or at risk of a repeat IHD event.

The epidemiological modelling of major depressive disorder : application for the global burden of disease study 2010

Background Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). Method Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data. Results There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2–4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1–4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0–6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0–3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks. Conclusion We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to smoking in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To quantify the burden of disease attributable to smoking in South Africa for 2000. Design The absolute difference between observed lung cancer death rate and the level in non-smokers, adjusted for occupational and indoor exposure to lung carcinogens, was used to estimate the proportion of lung cancer deaths attributable to smoking and the smoking impact ratio (SIR). The SIR was substituted for smoking prevalence in the attributable fraction formula for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cancers to allow for the long lag between exposure and outcome. Assuming a shorter lag between exposure and disease, the current prevalence of smoking was used to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAF) for the other outcomes. Relative risks (RR) from the American Cancer Society cancer prevention study (CPS-II) were used to calculate PAF. Setting South Africa. Outcome measures Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to lung and other cancers, COPD, cardiovascular conditions, respiratory tuberculosis, and other respiratory and medical conditions. Results Smoking caused between 41 632 and 46 656 deaths in South Africa, accounting for 8.0 - 9.0% of deaths and 3.7 - 4.3% of DALYs in 2000. Smoking ranked third (after unsafe sex/sexually transmitted disease and high blood pressure) in terms of mortality among 17 risk factors evaluated. Three times as many males as females died from smoking. Lung cancer had the largest attributable fraction due to smoking. However, cardiovascular diseases accounted for the largest proportion of deaths attributed to smoking. Conclusion Cigarette smoking accounts for a large burden of preventable disease in South Africa. While the government has taken bold legislative action to discourage tobacco use since 1994, it still remains a major public health priority.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to excess body weight in South Africa in 2000

Objective. To estimate the burden of disease attributable to excess body weight using the body mass index (BMI), by age and sex, in South Africa in 2000. Design. World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Re-analysis of the 1998 South Africa Demographic and Health Survey data provided mean BMI estimates by age and sex. Populationattributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. Setting. South Africa. Subjects. Adults 30 years of age. Outcome measures. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, hypertensive disease, osteoarthritis, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and selected cancers. Results. Overall, 87% of type 2 diabetes, 68% of hypertensive disease, 61% of endometrial cancer, 45% of ischaemic stroke, 38% of ischaemic heart disease, 31% of kidney cancer, 24% of osteoarthritis, 17% of colon cancer, and 13% of postmenopausal breast cancer were attributable to a BMI 21 kg/m2. Excess body weight is estimated to have caused 36 504 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 31 018 - 38 637) or 7% (95% uncertainty interval 6.0 - 7.4%) of all deaths in 2000, and 462 338 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 396 512 - 478 847) or 2.9% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 2.4 - 3.0%). The burden in females was approximately double that in males. Conclusions. This study shows the importance of recognising excess body weight as a major risk to health, particularly among females, highlighting the need to develop, implement and evaluate comprehensive interventions to achieve lasting change in the determinants and impact of excess body weight.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in South Africa in 2000

Objectives. To quantify the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in persons 15 years or older, by age group and sex, in South Africa for 2000. Design. The global comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology of the World Health Organization was followed to estimate the disease burden attributable to physical inactivity. Levels of physical activity for South Africa were obtained from the World Health Survey 2003. A theoretical minimum risk exposure of zero, associated outcomes, relative risks, and revised burden of disease estimates were used to calculate population-attributable fractions and the burden attributed to physical inactivity. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. Setting. South Africa. Subjects. Adults ≥ 15 years. Outcome measures. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, breast cancer, colon cancer, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Results. Overall in adults ≥ 15 years in 2000, 30% of ischaemic heart disease, 27% of colon cancer, 22% of ischaemic stroke, 20% of type 2 diabetes, and 17% of breast cancer were attributable to physical inactivity. Physical inactivity was estimated to have caused 17 037 (95% uncertainty interval 11 394 - 20 407), or 3.3% (95% uncertainty interval 2.2 - 3.9%) of all deaths in 2000, and 176 252 (95% uncertainty interval 133 733 - 203 628) DALYs, or 1.1% (95% uncertainty interval 0.8 - 1.3%) of all DALYs in 2000. Conclusions. Compared with other regions and the global average, South African adults have a particularly high prevalence of physical inactivity. In terms of attributable deaths, physical inactivity ranked 9th compared with other risk factors, and 12th in terms of DALYs. There is a clear need to assess why South Africans are particularly inactive, and to ensure that physical activity/inactivity is addressed as a national health priority.

Nutritional challenges for the family caregiver and person with dementia dyad

ABSTRACT Background: The majority of people with dementia live at home until quite late in the disease trajectory, supported by family caregivers who typically take increasing responsibility for providing nutrition. Caregiving is highly stressful and thus both dyad partners are at risk of nutritional issues. Objective: This study evaluated the nutritional status of both dyad members and the associations between these. Design Descriptive, correlational Setting Community Participants 26 dyads of persons with dementia and caregivers Measurements: The nutritional status of each dyad member was evaluated at home using a comprehensive battery of measures including the Mini-Nutritional Assessment, Corrected Arm Muscle Area and a 3-day food diary. Stage of dementia and functional eating capacity was measured for the person with dementia. Caregivers completed a brief burden scale. Results: Of those with dementia (n = 26), a large proportion had nutritional issues (one was malnourished and another 16 were at risk). Six of the caregivers were at risk of malnutrition. In addition, fifteen of the people with dementia did not meet their recommended daily energy requirements. A moderate and significant positive correlation between functional eating skills and nutritional status (MNA score) among participants with dementia was found (r =.523, n = 26, p.006). Conclusion: These findings suggest that a dyadic perspective of nutritional status provides important insights into risk in this vulnerable group. Specifically, monitoring of the functional eating independence skills of the person with dementia is critical, along with assisting caregivers to be aware of their own eating patterns and intake.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to high cholesterol in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributable to high cholesterol in adults aged 30 years and older in South Africa in 2000. Design World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Small community studies were used to derive the prevalence by population group. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for the relevant disease categories for each population group. The total attributable burden for South Africa in 2000 was obtained by adding the burden attributed to high cholesterol for the four population groups. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. Setting South Africa. Subjects Black African, coloured, white and Indian adults aged 30 years and older. Outcome measures Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and ischaemic stroke. Results Overall, about 59% of IHD and 29% of ischaemic stroke burden in adult males and females (30+ years) were attributable to high cholesterol (≥ 3.8 mmol/l), with marked variation by population group. High cholesterol was estimated to have caused 24 144 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 22 404 - 25 286) or 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 4.3 - 4.9%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Since most cholesterol-related cardiovascular disease events occurred in middle or old age, the loss of life years comprised a smaller proportion of the total: 222 923 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 206 712 - 233 460) or 1.4% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 1.3 - 1.4%) in South Africa in 2000. Conclusions High cholesterol is an important cardiovascular risk factor in all population groups in South Africa.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to high blood pressure in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributable to high blood pressure (BP) in adults aged 30 years and older in South Africa in 2000. Design World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Mean systolic BP (SBP) estimates by age and sex were obtained from the 1998 South African Demographic and Health Survey adult data. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for the relevant disease categories for South Africa in 2000. Monte Carlo simulation modelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. Setting South Africa Subjects Adults aged 30 years and older. Outcome measures Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, hypertensive disease and other cardiovascular disease (CVD). Results High BP was estimated to have caused 46 888 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 44 878 - 48 566) or 9% (95% uncertainty interval 8.6 - 9.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000, and 390 860 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 377 955 - 402 256) or 2.4% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 2.3 - 2.5%) in South Africa in 2000. Overall, 50% of stroke, 42% of IHD, 72% of hypertensive disease and 22% of other CVD burden in adult males and females (30+ years) were attributable to high BP (systolic BP ≥ 115 mmHg). Conclusions High BP contributes to a considerable burden of CVD in South Africa and results indicate that there is considerable potential for health gain from implementing BP-lowering interventions that are known to be highly costeffective.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to low fruit and vegetable intake in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributed to low fruit and vegetable intake by sex and age group in South Africa for the year 2000. Design The analysis follows the World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology. Populationattributable fractions were calculated from South African prevalence data from dietary surveys and applied to the revised South African burden of disease estimates for 2000. A theoretical maximum distribution of 600 g per day for fruit and vegetable intake was chosen. Monte Carlo simulationmodelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. Setting South Africa. Subjects Adults ≥ 15 years. Outcome measures Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, lung cancer, gastric cancer, colorectal cancer and oesophageal cancer. Results Low fruit and vegetable intake accounted for 3.2% of total deaths and 1.1% of the 16.2 million attributable DALYs. For both males and females the largest proportion of total years of healthy life lost attributed to low fruit and vegetable intake was for ischaemic heart disease (60.6% and 52.2%, respectively). Ischaemic stroke accounted for 17.8% of attributable DALYs for males and 32.7% for females. For the related cancers, the leading attributable DALYs for men and women were oesophageal cancer (9.8% and 7.0%, respectively) and lung cancer (7.8% and 4.7%, respectively). Conclusions A high intake of fruit and vegetables can make a significant contribution to decreasing mortality from certain diseases. The challenge lies in creating the environment that facilitates changes in dietary habits such as the increased intake of fruit and vegetables.

The quality of life and caregiving burden among caregivers of people with dementia in Hanoi, Bac Ninh and Hai Phong, Vietnam

This three phase study aimed to describe dementia carer's quality of life (QoL) and perceived burden, and explore the associations between family carer characteristics, burden and perceived QoL in Vietnam. Dementia carers in the capital, Hanoi, in Phase 1 (N= 153) and from Hanoi, Hai Phong and Bac Ninh in Phase 2 (N=347) completed questionnaires. Survey results showed dementia carers reported low QoL, predicted by high perceived burden. Other carer characteristics including age, gender, family income and perceived experience were significantly associated with QoL. Filial piety contributed to only a single domain of QoL. Phase 3 employed qualitative methods to explore the specific issues faced by daughter carers. Findings suggested that filial gratitude and positive aspects of the role may influence the caring experience of daughter carers. Further investigation of the specific support needs of general dementia carers, and daughter carers in particular, in Vietnam is warranted.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to diabetes in South Africa in 2000

OBJECTIVES To estimate the burden of disease attributable to diabetes by sex and age group in South Africa in 2000. DESIGN The framework adopted for the most recent World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Small community studies used to derive the prevalence of diabetes by population group were weighted proportionately for a national estimate. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. SETTING South Africa. SUBJECTS Adults 30 years and older. OUTCOME MEASURES Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, hypertensive disease and renal failure. RESULTS Of South Africans aged >or= 30 years, 5.5% had diabetes which increased with age. Overall, about 14% of IHD, 10% of stroke, 12% of hypertensive disease and 12% of renal disease burden in adult males and females (30+ years) were attributable to diabetes. Diabetes was estimated to have caused 22,412 (95% uncertainty interval 20,755 - 24,872) or 4.3% (95% uncertainty interval 4.0 - 4.8%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Since most of these occurred in middle or old age, the loss of healthy life years comprises a smaller proportion of the total 258,028 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 236,856 - 290,849) in South Africa in 2000, accounting for 1.6% (95% uncertainty interval 1.5 - 1.8%) of the total burden. CONCLUSIONS Diabetes is an important direct and indirect cause of burden in South Africa. Primary prevention of the disease through multi-level interventions and improved management at primary health care level are needed.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.