Overview of risk prediction models in cardiovascular disease research

Many risk prediction models have been developed for cardiovascular diseases in different countries during the past three decades. However, there has not been consistent agreement regarding how to appropriately assess a risk prediction model, especially when new markers are added to an established risk prediction model. Researchers often use the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) to assess the discriminatory ability of a risk prediction model. However, recent studies suggest that this method has serious limitations and cannot be the sole approach to evaluate the usefulness of a new marker in clinical and epidemiological studies. To overcome the shortcomings of this traditional method, new assessment methods have been proposed. The aim of this article is to overview various risk prediction models for cardiovascular diseases, to describe the receiver operating characteristic curve method and discuss some new assessment methods proposed recently. Some of the methods were illustrated with figures from a cardiovascular disease study in Australia.

3D fibrous structures as cardiovascular implants

Medical textiles are a highly specialised stream of technical textiles industry with a growing range of applications. A significant advancement has been achieved in surgical products or biomedical textiles (implantable/non-implantable) with the advent of 3D textile manufacturing techniques. Cardiovascular soft tissue implants (vascular grafts) have been a field of interest over decades for use of innovative 3D tubular structures in treatment of cardiovascular diseases. In the field of soft tissue implants, knitted and woven tubular structures are being used for large diameter blood vessel replacements. Advent of electrospinning and tissue engineering techniques has been able to provide promising answers to small diameter vascular grafts. The aim of this review is to outline the approaches in vascular graft development utilising different 3D tubular structure forming techniques. The emphasis is on vascular graft development techniques that can help improve treatment efficacy in future.

Population-level changes to promote cardiovascular health

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) cause 1.8 million premature (<75 years) death annually in Europe. The majority of these deaths are preventable with the most efficient and cost-effective approach being on the population level. The aim of this position paper is to assist authorities in selecting the most adequate management strategies to prevent CVD.

Design and Methods: Experts reviewed and summarized the published evidence on the major modifiable CVD risk factors: food, physical inactivity, smoking, and alcohol. Population-based preventive strategies focus on fiscal measures (e.g. taxation), national and regional policies (e.g. smoke-free legislation), and environmental changes (e.g. availability of alcohol).

Results: Food is a complex area, but several strategies can be effective in increasing fruit and vegetables and lowering intake of salt, saturated fat, trans-fats, and free sugars. Tobacco and alcohol can be regulated mainly by fiscal measures and national policies, but local availability also plays a role. Changes in national policies and the built environment will integrate physical activity into daily life.

Conclusion: Societal changes and commercial influences have led to the present unhealthy environment, in which default option in life style increases CVD risk. A challenge for both central and local authorities is, therefore, to ensure healthier defaults. This position paper summarizes the evidence and recommends a number of structural strategies at international, national, and regional levels that in combination can substantially reduce CVD.

Inequalities in cardiovascular disease mortality : the role of behavioural, physiological and social risk factors

Background While the relationship between socio-economic disadvantage and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established, the role that traditional cardiovascular risk factors play in this association remains unclear. The authors examined the association between education attainment and CVD mortality and the extent to which behavioural, social and physiological factors explained this relationship.

Methods Adults (n=38 355) aged 40–69 years living in Melbourne, Australia were recruited in 1990–1994. Subjects with baseline CVD risk factor data ascertained through questionnaire and physical measurement were followed for an average of 9.4 years with CVD deaths verified by review of medical records and autopsy reports.

Results CVD mortality was higher for those with primary education only, compared with those who had completed tertiary education, with an HR of 1.66 (95% CI 1.10 to 2.49) after adjustment for age, country of birth and gender. Those from the lowest educated group had a more adverse cardiovascular risk factor profile compared with the highest educated group, and adjustment for these risk factors reduced the HR to 1.18 (95% CI 0.78 to 1.77). In analysis of individual risk factors, smoking and waist circumference explained most of the difference in CVD mortality between the highest and lowest education groups.

Conclusions Most of the excess CVD mortality in lower socio-economic groups can be explained by known risk factors, particularly smoking and overweight. While targeting cardiovascular risk factors should not divert efforts from addressing the underlying determinants of health inequalities, it is essential that known risk factors are addressed effectively among lower socio-economic groups.

Multiple pharmacological interventions targeting cardiovascular disease risk factors in individuals with type 2 diabetes - systematic review

Background:
The use of pharmacological agents has been shown to slow down the progression of microvascular and macrovascular complications. Most clinical trials address one pharmacological intervention at a time. To date, only a few studies explored multi-factorial pharmacological interventions in T2DM individuals for preventing CVD related complications. Given the current therapeutic inertia in pharmacological management of CVD risk factors, it is important to establish the benefits of a more holistic approach. Therefore, the aim of this review is to assess the efficacy of multiple pharmacological interventions for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk factors with or without conventional care in reducing all cause mortality, CVD mortality, stroke and cardiovascular events among adults with type 2 diabetes. Current evidence fails to support the benefit of multiple pharmacological interventions on all cause mortality and death from cardiovascular causes. However, beneficial effects were seen on the reduction of the overall number of cardiovascular events and there were promising trends for secondary outcomes such as stroke, myocardial infarction, revascularisation and amputation.

Cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease in Australia's indigenous population

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of disease burden in Australia's Indigenous population, and the greatest contributor to the Indigenous 'health gap'. Economic evidence can help identify interventions that efficiently address this discrepancy.

Higher dietary calcium intakes are associated with reduced risks of fractures, cardiovascular events, and mortality: a prospective cohort study of older men and women

The aim of this population-based, prospective cohort study was to investigate long-term associations between dietary calcium intake and fractures, non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD), and death from all causes. Participants were from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, which was established in 1990 to 1994. A total of 41,514 men and women (∼99% aged 40 to 69 years at baseline) were followed up for a mean (SD) of 12 (1.5) years. Primary outcome measures were time to death from all causes (n = 2855), CVD-related deaths (n = 557), cerebrovascular disease-related deaths (n = 139), incident non-fatal CVD (n = 1827), incident stroke events (n = 537), and incident fractures (n = 788). A total of 12,097 participants (aged ≥50 years) were eligible for fracture analysis and 34,468 for non-fatal CVD and mortality analyses. Mortality was ascertained by record linkage to registries. Fractures and CVD were ascertained from interview ∼13 years after baseline. Quartiles of baseline energy-adjusted calcium intake from food were estimated using a food-frequency questionnaire. Hazard ratios (HR) and odds ratios (OR) were calculated for quartiles of dietary calcium intake. Highest and lowest quartiles of energy-adjusted dietary calcium intakes represented unadjusted means (SD) of 1348 (316) mg/d and 473 (91) mg/d, respectively. Overall, there were 788 (10.3%) incident fractures, 1827 (9.0%) incident CVD, and 2855 people (8.6%) died. Comparing the highest with the lowest quartile of calcium intake, for all-cause mortality, the HR was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.98, ptrend  = 0.01); for non-fatal CVD and stroke, the OR was 0.84 (95% CI 0.70-0.99, ptrend  = 0.04) and 0.69 (95% CI 0.51-0.93, ptrend  = 0.02), respectively; and the OR for fracture was 0.70 (95% CI 0.54-0.92, ptrend  = 0.004). In summary, for older men and women, calcium intakes of up to 1348 (316) mg/d from food were associated with decreased risks for fracture, non-fatal CVD, stroke, and all-cause mortality.

Cardiovascular prevention model from Kenyan slums to migrants in the Netherlands

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the main cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. As prevention and treatment of CVD often requires active screening and lifelong follow up it is a challenge for health systems both in high-income and low and middle-income countries to deliver adequate care to those in need, with efficient use of resources.We developed a health service model for primary prevention of CVD suitable for implementation in the Nairobi slums, based on best practices from public health and the private sectors. The model consists of four key intervention elements focusing on increasing awareness, incentives for promoting access to screening and treatment, and improvement of long-term adherence to prescribed medications. More than 5,000 slum dwellers aged ≥35 years and above have been screened in the study resulting in more than 1000 diagnosed with hypertension and referred to the clinic.Some marginalized groups in high-income countries like African migrants in the Netherlands also have low rates of awareness, treatment and control of hypertension as the slum population in Nairobi. The parallel between both groups is that they have a combination of risky lifestyle, are prone to chronic diseases such as hypertension, have limited knowledge about hypertension and its complications, and a tendency to stay away from clinics partly due to cultural beliefs in alternative forms of treatment, and lack of trust in health providers. Based on these similarities it was suggested by several policymakers that the model from Nairobi can be applied to other vulnerable populations such as African migrants in high-income countries. The model can be contextualized to the local situation by adapting the key steps of the model to the local settings.The involvement and support of African communities' infrastructures and health care staff is crucial, and the most important enabler for successful implementation of the model in migrant communities in high-income countries. Once these stakeholders have expressed their interest, the impact of the adapted intervention can be measured through an implementation research approach including collection of costs from health care providers' perspective and health effects in the target population, similar to the study design for Nairobi.

Use of novel biomarkers (Homocysteine, vitamin B6, B9 and B12) on the assessing the progression of cardiovascular disease

A large number of evidences correlate elevated levels of homocysteine (Hcys) with a higher cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) risk, especially, atherosclerosis. Similarly, abnormal low levels of the vitamins B6, B9 and B12 are associated to an instability in the methionine cycle with an over production of Hcys. Thus, biomedical sciences are looking forward for a cheaper, faster, precise and accurate analytical methodology to quantify these compounds in a suitable format for the clinical environment. Therefore the objective of this study was the development of a simple, inexpensive and appropriate methodology to use at the clinical level. To achieve this goal, a procedure integrating a digitally controlled (eVol®) microextraction by packed sorbent (MEPS) and an ultra performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) coupled to a photodiode array detector (PDA) was developed to identify and quantify Hcys vitamins B6, B9 and B12. Although different conditions were assayed, we were not able to combine Hcys with the vitamins in the same analytical procedure, and so we proceeded to the optimization of two methods differing only in the composition of the gradient of the mobile phase and the injected volume. It was found that MEPS did not bring any benefit to the quantification of the Hcys in the plasma. Therefore, we developed and validate an alternative method that uses the direct injection of treated plasma (reduced and precipitated). This same method was evaluated in terms of selectivity, linearity, limit of detection (LOD), limit of quantification (LOQ), matrix effect and precision (intra-and inter-day) and applied to the determination of Hcys in a group composed by patients presenting augmented CVD risk. Good results in terms of selectivity and linearity (R2> 0.9968) were obtained, being the values of LOD and LOQ 0.007 and 0.21 mol / L, respectively. The intra-day precision (1.23-3.32%), inter-day precision (5.43-6.99%) and the recovery rate (82.5 to 93.1%) of this method were satisfactory. The matrix effect (>120%) was, however, higher than we were waiting for. Using this methodology it was possible to determine the amount of Hcys in real plasma samples from individuals presenting augmented CVD risk. Regarding the methodology developed for vitamins, despite the optimization of the extraction technique and the chromatographic conditions, it was found that the levels usually present in plasma are far below the sensitivity we obtained. Therefore, further optimizations of the methodology developed are needed. As conclusion, part of the objectives of this study was achieved with the development of a quick, simple and cheaper method for the quantification of Hcys.

Síndrome metabólica e risco cardiovascular na pós- menopausa: avaliação por diferentes critérios diagnósticos e influência de fatores sócio-econômicos

The metabolic syndrome (MetS) involves a group of risk factors and is associated with a significantly higher risk of developing cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and type 2 diabetes. Recent studies have shown the importance of preventing CVD through early diagnosis and treatment of patients with MetS. The objective of our study was to determine the prevalence of MetS by different diagnostic criteria in postmenopausal women and analyze the influence of socioeconomic factors on cardiovascular risk in this sample of the population. A cross-sectional study involving 127 postmenopausal women (45 to 64 years) from Natal and Mossoró, Brazil. The study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte. The experimental protocol consisted of applying structured interview, clinical examination and implementation of dosages blood. The diagnosis of MetS was based on NCEP-ATP III (National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III) and IDF (International Diabetes Federation) criteria. The research was accomplished with the participation of an interdisciplinary team in their several phases. The result of the sample studied had mean age of 53.9 ± 4.6 years and per capita income of 54.5 dollars. The prevalence of MetS, according to NCEP-ATP III and IDF criteria, was 52.8% and 61.4$, respectively. The agreement rate between NCEP-ATP III and IDF criteria was 81.9%, with a kappa value of 0.63 (CI 95%, 0.49-0.76), indicating good agreement between the two definitions. The most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor was HDL < 50 mg/dl, observed in 96.1% of the women analyzed, followed by increased waist circumference (≥ 80 cm) in 78.0%, elevated blood pressure in 51.2%, triglycerides ≥ 150 mg/dl in 40.9% and glycemia ≥ 100 mg/dl in 37.0% of the women. The occurrence of MetS was significantly associated with schooling and body mass index (BMI). High blood pressure was significantly associated with low family income, low schooling and weight gain. There was no significant association between the intensity of climacteric symptomatology and the occurrence of MetS. The conclusions of the research were that MetS and its individual components show a high prevalence in postmenopausal Brazilian women, and significant associations with weight gain and low socioeconomic indicators. The data point to the need for an interdisciplinary approach at the basic health care level, directed toward the early identification of risk factors and the promotion of cardiovascular health of climacteric women.

Doença cardiovascular em mulheres com histórico de pré-eclâmpsia e seguimento no sistema único de saúde

The aim of the present study was to analyze cardiovascular risk of women with a history of preeclampsia, as well as its follow-upin the National Health System.This is a cross-sectional quantitative research conducted at the Januário Cicco Maternity School. The study population was composed of 573 women selected from a databank belonging to the Women s Health Research Group of the Gynecology Department at Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, with a history of preeclampsia, and normotensives who gave birth at this institution five years before. The final sample consisted of 147 women, 64 in the group with a history of PE and 83 normotensives. Data were collected on a questionnaire containing the following: sociodemographic aspects, anthropometric measures, life habits, personal and family history of pregnancy-induced hypertension, family history of cardiovascular diseases and frequency of measuring current blood pressure levels. In relation to the association between cardiovascular risk and altered blood pressure (≥130x85 mmHg), the likelihood of exhibiting the latter condition was significantly higher in women with a history of preeclampsia (CI 95% 4.12-38.92), the overweight and obese (CI 95% 1.70-20.75), and in those with a family historyof CVD and personal history of PIH (CI 95% 0.78-47.07 and CI 95% 3.20-25.39) respectively. Likewise, the probability of having altered blood pressure was higher in women with fasting glycemia ≥100mg/dL (CI 95% 2.09-24.73), as well as in those with triglycerides ≥150mg/dl (CI 95% 1.72-9.66). After fitting the logistic model, diagnosis previous preeclampsia and altered triglycerides remained as explanatory variables.The women with a history of preeclampsia five years before exhibited altered blood pressure levels, clinical and laboratory manifestations suggestive of elevated risk for cardiovascular disease, as well as family and personal history of hypertension. There is no differential treatment or adequate outpatient follow-up for this population in basic health care units

Relação entre a doença periodontal e doença cardiovascular: há uma preocupação por parte dos que fazem clínica médica e odontológica na cidade de Natal?

The relationship between periodontal and cardiovascular diseases is a reality in the current days. The knowledge about the role of periodontal disease as a risk factor to cardiovascular disease from dentistry and physicians is very important to try to eliminate this risk factor. The aim of this work was to investigate, using a questionary, if physicians and dentistry are aware about this relationship and if they think that it is important. These forms were distributed in 4 groups: cardiologists (n=90), physicians from other specialist (POS) (n=110), periodontists (n=35) and dentistry from other specialist (DOE) (n=85). We had a loss off 32,4% of the total sample due to a lack of response of some professionals. Our results showed that all cardiologists, all dentists and 68,2% of POE said that they had gotten information about the relationship between periodontal and cardiovascular disease, and just 6 POS don t believe that this relationship can occur. When questioned if, even when a periodontal disease is diagnosed, there is a habit to treat or orient the patient for treatment, 29,5% of cardiologists answered no, 25,5% of POE also answered that they did not orient and only 1 DOE answered that he did not treat nor orient. All periodontists said that treat their patients when periodontal disease was identify. The physicians seem not to find important the relationship that exist between periodontal and cardiovascular diseases and the dentistry have shown a good knowledge about this subject. Maybe, if physicians and dentistry work together, the incidence of cardiovascular disease decreases

Frequência de fatores de risco cardiovascular em voluntários participantes de evento de educação em saúde

INTRODUCTION. Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the main cause of death in Brazil.OBJECTIVE. To evaluate the frequency of CVD risk factors In a population attending a health education community event.METHODS. Retrospective study that included 428 completed forms with clinical and demographic information of volunteers attending a public event, in May, 2006. Data were expressed by means and standard deviation or proportions and compared by Student's t test or Chi-square test. Associations between Arterial Hypertension (AH), Diabetes Mellitus (DM) and clinical variables were analyzed by multinomial logistic regression. Significance level was p<0.05.RESULTS. Mean age was 57 +/- 14years, and women represented 58% of the total population. The main cardiovascular risk factors were AH (39.5%), DM (15.4%) and dyslipidemia (25.89%). The frequency of unawareness about these risk factors was respectively 8.4%, 17.5% and 33.1%.. Family history of CVD was reported by 41% while only 67% reported having any information about DM or dyslipidemia. Among obese individuals (IMC >= 30 Kg/m2, 27.3% of the population), systolic blood pressure (133 +/- 16mmHg), diastolic blood pressure (84 +/- 11.5mmHg) and casual glycemia (124 +/- 52.5mg/dl) were higher when compared to non-obese (p<0.05). There was a significant association between obesity and dyslipidemia (p=0.04). Age and IMC were independently associated with AH and DM.CONCLUSION. The high frequency of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in this population suggests the need for educational programs to promote primary prevention, mainly for the elderly and overweight. [Rev Assoc Med Bras 2009; 55(5): 606-10]

Some predictors of cardiovascular mortality among the elderly population of Botucatu (SP)

OBJECTIVE: To detect factors associated with cardiovascular mortality in the elderly of Botucatu. METHODS: We evaluated 29 variables of interest in a cohort of patients aged ³60 using data from a survey conducted between 1983/84. The elderly cohort was analyzed in 1992 to detect the occurrence of cardiovascular deaths. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. Three models were adapted for each group of variables, and a final model was chosen from those variables selected from each group. RESULTS: We identified predictor for cardiovascular death according to age for elderly males not supporting the family, not possessing a vehicle, and previous cardiovascular disease. In elderly females, the predictor variables were previous cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic indicators (family heading and vehicle ownerrship) may be added to well stabilished medical factors (diabete mellitus and hypertension to select target groups for programs intended to reduce deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in elderly people.

Early physical activity promotes lower prevalence of chronic diseases in adulthood

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)