Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Crystal structure and conformation study of N-methyl-t-3-methyl-r-2, c-6-diphenylpiperidin-4-one thiosemicarbazone

Thiosemicarbazones are having the ability to bind with metal and inhibit the enzyme ribonucleoside diphosphate reductase(RDR),an enzyme which is involved in the synthesis of DNA precursors in the mammalian cells.The title compound N-methyl-t-3-methyl-r-2, c-6-diphenylpiperidin-4-one thiosemicarbazone (NMMDPT), CCDC 218052, was prepared using Mannich reaction and characterized by X-ray diffraction methods.The crystal data are:C20H24N4S; M.W= 352.49, triclinic,space group P (1) over bar, a = 8.467(2)angstrom, b = 10.228(2)angstrom, c = 12.249(2)angstrom; lpha=92.595(3)degrees, beta=104.173(3)degrees, gamma=13.628(3)degrees; V=930.0(3)angstrom(3), Z=2, D-cal=1.259Mgm(-3),mu=0.184mm(-1),lambda (MoKalpha)=0.71073 angstrom, final R1 and wR2 are 0.0470 and 0.1052, respectively. The piperidine rings adopt chair conformation. The planar phenyl rings are oriented equatorially at 2,6-positions of the piperidine ring. The molecular packing can be viewed as dimers held together by two N-H...S types of intermolecular hydrogen bonds. Weak C-H...pi interactions also support the stability of the molecules in the crystal in addition to van der Waals forces. (c) 2006 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Plasmid DNA mediated transfer of the herpes simplex virus thymidine kinase gene to a new bromodeoxyuridine resistant variant of human primary lung carcinoma cells

A human primary lung carcinoma cell line (HPL-R1) established from the tumor biopsy of a lung cancer patient, lacking in cytochrome P1-450 [aryl hydrocarbon (benzo[a]pyrene) hydroxylase (AHH)], was cloned and used to obtain variants deficient in the expression of thymidine-kinase via treatment with 5-bromo-2'-deoxyuridine, and selection for drug resistance phenotype. The variant cell line, precharacterized for thymidine kinase negative phenotype, was transfected with the thymidine kinase gene bearing p R-tk and px1-tk plasmids. Transfections from both the plasmids, demonstrated a frequency of 5.5 X 10(-5). The transfectants showed a 76-100% retention of the transferred phenotype. These data suggest that transfection in variant human cells can approach significant levels of stability observed with rodent cell recipients.

The 31p nmr Spectra of Isomeric Diaminohexa-hlorocyclotetraphosphazatetraenes; Examples of a2b2 and aa'bb' spin Systems

The 31P nmr spectra of 2,4- and 2,6-diamino-derivatives of octachlorocyclotetraphosphazatetraene, N4P4Cl6(NR1R2)2 (R1 = H, R2 = But; R1 = H, R2 = CH2Ph; R1 = Me, R2 = Ph), have been measured. The 2,4- and 2,6-isomers were analysed as AA'BB' and A2B2 spin systems respectively. In the 2,4-isomers the spin-spin couplings 2J(PNP) and 4J(PNPNP) were of opposite sign.

Electromagnetic wave propagation at the interface between two polar semiconductors

The interface between two polar semiconductors can support three types of phonon-plasmon-polariton modes propagating in three well-defined frequency windows ??1?[min(?1,?3),?R1], ??2?[max(?2,?4),?R2], and ??3?[min(?2,?4),?R3]. The limiting frequencies ?1,2,3,4 are defined by ?1(?)=0, ?2(?)=0, and ?R1,2,3 by ?1(?)+?2(?)=0, where ?i(?) are dielectric functions of the two media with i=1,2. The dispersion, decay distances, and polarization of the three modes are discussed. The variation of the limiting frequencies with the interface plasma parameter ???p22/?p12 reveals an interesting feature in the dispersion characteristics of these modes. For the interfaces for which the bulk coupled phonon-plasmon frequencies of medium 1 are greater than the LO frequency or are less than the TO frequency of medium 2, there exist two values of ?=?1 and ?2(

MNDO study of coupled strained hydrocarbons: Additivity of exocyclic C---C bond contraction induced by different ring systems

MNDO geometry optimizations were carried out on a series of symmetrically and unsymmetrically coupled strained ring hydrocarbons, R1-R1 and R1–R2 (R1=methyl, cyclopropyl, 1-bicyclo[1.1.0]butyl, 1-bicyclo[1.1.1]pentyl, prismyl, cubyl, 6-tricyclo [3.1.1.03,6]heptyl, and tetrahedryl groups; R2=methyl and cyclopropyl). The remarkable contraction of the C---C bond connecting the strained rings found experimentally in a few cases was reproduced correctly by the calculations. A linear correlation was found between the bond length shortening and the bond angle widening at the corresponding carbon atoms for all the structures considered. The reduction in C---C bond lengths due to various ring systems is additive. The additivity indicates that inter-ring interactions which effect the central bond length are absent and confirms the common electronic origin of bond contraction in these systems, viz. enhanced s-character in the exocyclic bonds of strained rings.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of radiosynthesis methods for 18F-labelled radiopharmaceuticals : General considerations and production of a dopamine transporter radioligand

Positron emission tomography (PET) is a molecular imaging technique that utilises radiopharmaceuticals (radiotracers) labelled with a positron-emitting radionuclide, such as fluorine-18 (18F). Development of a new radiotracer requires an appropriate radiosynthesis method: the most common of which with 18F is nucleophilic substitution with [18F]fluoride ion. The success of the labelling reaction is dependent on various factors such as the reactivity of [18F]fluoride, the structure of the target compound in addition to the chosen solvent. The overall radiosynthesis procedure must be optimised in terms of radiochemical yield and quality of the final product. Therefore, both quantitative and qualitative radioanalytical methods are essential in developing radiosynthesis methods. Furthermore, biological properties of the tracer candidate need to be evaluated by various pre-clinical studies in animal models. In this work, the feasibility of various nucleophilic 18F-fluorination strategies were studied and a labelling method for a novel radiotracer, N-3-[18F]fluoropropyl-2beta-carbomethoxy-3beta-4-fluorophenyl)nortropane ([18F]beta-CFT-FP), was optimised. The effect of solvent was studied by labelling a series of model compounds, 4-(R1-methyl)benzyl R2-benzoates. 18F-Fluorination reactions were carried out both in polar aprotic and protic solvents (tertiary alcohols). Assessment of the 18F-fluorinated products was studied by mass spectrometry (MS) in addition to conventional radiochromatographic methods, using radiosynthesis of 4-[18F]fluoro-N-[2-[1-(2-methoxyphenyl)-1-piperazinyl]ethyl-N-2-pyridinyl-benzamide (p-[18F]MPPF) as a model reaction. Labelling of [18F]beta-CFT-FP was studied using two 18F-fluoroalkylation reagents, [18F]fluoropropyl bromide and [18F]fluoropropyl tosylate, as well as by direct 18F-fluorination of sulfonate ester precursor. Subsequently, the suitability of [18F]beta-CFT-FP for imaging dopamine transporter (DAT) was evaluated by determining its biodistribution in rats. The results showed that protic solvents can be useful co-solvents in aliphatic 18F-fluorinations, especially in the labelling of sulfonate esters. Aromatic 18F-fluorination was not promoted in tert-alcohols. Sensitivity of the ion trap MS was sufficient for the qualitative analysis of the 18F-labelled products; p-[18F]MPPF was identified from the isolated product fraction with a mass-to-charge (m/z) ratio of 435 (i.e. protonated molecule [M+H]+). [18F]beta-CFT-FP was produced most efficiently via [18F]fluoropropyl tosylate, leading to sufficient radiochemical yield and specific radioactivity for PET studies. The ex vivo studies in rats showed fast kinetics as well as the specific uptake of [18F]beta-CFT-FP to the DAT rich brain regions. Thus, it was concluded that [18F]beta-CFT-FP has potential as a radiotracer for imaging DAT by PET.

Synthesis, spectral characterisation and single-crystal structure of a bicyclic tetraphosphapentazane tetraoxide, N5P4ET5O4(OC6H3Me2-2,6)2

Reaction of the bicyclic phosphazane N5P4Et5Cl2 with 2,6-dimethylphenol and subsequent oxidation of the product by aqueous hydrogen peroxide yields N5P4Et5O4(OC6H3Me2-2,6)2 in 85% yield. Its structure has been established by NMR spectroscopy and single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The compound crystallises in the monoclinic space group C2/c with a= 21.245(5), b= 10.879(2), c= 16.450(6)Å, ?= 123.94(2)°, Z= 4, R= 0.066. The structural features are compared with those of bicyclic ?5-phosphazenes of type N5P4R3(NR1R2)5(NHR3)(R1,R3= Me or Et, R2= H or Me). The observed conformation of the N3P3 rings in the present compound is mainly dictated by the maximisation of the stabilising influence of �negative hyperconjugative interactions� between the nitrogen lone pairs and the adjacent P�X ?* orbitals.

Effect of Speed and Pressure on Dry Sliding Interactions of Alumina against Steel

Sliding of alumina (87%) pins against a hardened steel disk over a range of pressures (3.3-30.0 MPa) and speeds (0.1-12.0 ms(-1)) has been studied. Four different regions (R1, R2, R3, and R4) of friction as a function of speed have been identified. R1 and RS exhibit single-valued friction while in R2 and R4 the friction exhibits dual behavior. The speed range over which these regions prevail is sensitive to the pressure. R1 and R2 are low-speed and low-temperature regions, and in both, metal transfer and formation and compaction of gamma-Fe2O3 occur. R3 and R4 are associated with high speeds and high interface temperatures. Formation of FeO, FeAl2O4, and FeAlO3 has been observed. The implications of the tribochemical interactions on friction and wear characteristics are discussed.

A Layered Zinc Phosphate, [C6N4H22][Zn6(PO4)4(HPO4)2], Formed by One-Dimensional Tubes

An open-framework zinc phosphate, [C6N4H22][Zn6(PO4)4(HPO4)2] (I), with alternating inorganic and organic layers has been synthesized hydrothermally from a starting mixture of ZnO, HCl, H3PO4, H2C2O4, and triethylenetetramine. Single-crystal data for I: monoclinic, space GROUP =P21/c (No. 14), a=9.881(1), b=16.857(1), c=8.286(1) Å, β=96.7(1)°, V=1370.8(1) Å3, Z=2, R1=0.06, and wR2=0.13 [1408 observed reflections with I>2σ(I)]. The structure of I comprises a network of ZnO4, PO4, and PO3(OH) tetrahedra forming one-dimensional tubes. The tubes, in turn, are linked via oxygen atoms forming macroanionic inorganic layers with eight-membered apertures. The one-dimensional tube-like architecture in I is a novel feature worthy of note.

One-dimensional zinc phosphates with linear chain structure

Three one-dimensional zinc phosphates, [C5N2H14][Zn(HPO4)2], I, [C10N4H26][Zn(HPO4)2].2H2O II, and [C4N2H6]2[Zn(HPO4)], III, have been prepared employing hydro/solvothermal methods in the presence of organic amines. While I and II consist of linear chains of corner-shared four-membered rings, III is a polymeric wire where the amine molecule is directly bonded to the metal center. The wire, as well as the chain in these structures, are held together by hydrogen bond interactions involving the amine and the framework oxygens. The polymeric zinc phosphate with wire-like architecture, III, is only the second example of such architecture. Crystal data: I, monoclinic, P21/c (no. 14), a=8.603(2), b=13.529(2), c=10.880(1) Å, β=94.9(1)°, V=1261.6(1) Å3, Z=4, ρcalc.=1.893 gcm−3, μ(MoKα)=2.234 mm−1, R1=0.032, wR2=0.086, [1532 observed reflections with I>2σ(I)], II, orthorhombic, Pbca (no. 61), a=8.393(1), b=15.286(1), c=22.659(1) Å, V=2906.9(2) Å3, Z=8, ρcalc.=1.794 gcm−3, μ(MoKα)=1.957 mm−1, R1=0.055, wR2=0.11, [1565 observed reflections with I>2σ(I) and III, monoclinic, P21/c (no. 14), a=8.241(1), b=13.750(2), c=10.572(1) Å, β=90.9(1)°, V=1197.7(2) Å3, Z=4, ρcalc.=1.805 gcm−3, μ(MoKα)=2.197 mm−1, R1=0.036, wR2=0.10, [1423 observed reflections with I>2σ(I)].

Luminosity profiles of advanced mergers of galaxies using 2MASS data

A sample of 27 disturbed galaxies that show signs of interaction but have a single nucleus were selected from the Arp and the Arp-Madore catalogues. For these, the Ks band images from the Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) are analysed to obtain their radial luminosity pro�les and other structural parameters. We �nd that in spite of their similar optical appearance, the sample galaxies vary in their dynamical properties, and fall into two distinct classes. The �rst class consists of galaxies which can be described by a single r1=4 law and the second class consists of galaxies that show an outer exponential disk. A few galaxies that have disturbed pro�les cannot be �t into either of the above classes. However, all the galaxies are similar in all other parameters such as the far-infrared colours, the molecular hydrogen content and the central velocity dispersion. Thus, the dynamical parameters of these sets seem to be determined by the ratio of the initial masses of the colliding galaxies. We propose that the galaxies in the �rst class result from a merger of spiral galaxies of equal masses whereas the second class of galaxies results from a merger of unequal mass galaxies. The few objects that do not fall into either category show a disturbed luminosity pro�le and a wandering centre, which is indicative of these being unrelaxed mergers. Of the 27 galaxies in our sample, 9 show elliptical-like pro�les and 13 show an outer exponential. Interestingly, Arp 224, the second oldest merger remnant of the Toomre sequence shows an exponential disk in the outer parts.

A comparison of three methods for downscaling daily precipitation in the Punjab region

Many downscaling techniques have been developed in the past few years for projection of station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) to assess the hydrological impacts of climate change. This article compares the performances of three downscaling methods, viz. conditional random field (CRF), K-nearest neighbour (KNN) and support vector machine (SVM) methods in downscaling precipitation in the Punjab region of India, belonging to the monsoon regime. The CRF model is a recently developed method for downscaling hydrological variables in a probabilistic framework, while the SVM model is a popular machine learning tool useful in terms of its ability to generalize and capture nonlinear relationships between predictors and predictand. The KNN model is an analogue-type method that queries days similar to a given feature vector from the training data and classifies future days by random sampling from a weighted set of K closest training examples. The models are applied for downscaling monsoon (June to September) daily precipitation at six locations in Punjab. Model performances with respect to reproduction of various statistics such as dry and wet spell length distributions, daily rainfall distribution, and intersite correlations are examined. It is found that the CRF and KNN models perform slightly better than the SVM model in reproducing most daily rainfall statistics. These models are then used to project future precipitation at the six locations. Output from the Canadian global climate model (CGCM3) GCM for three scenarios, viz. A1B, A2, and B1 is used for projection of future precipitation. The projections show a change in probability density functions of daily rainfall amount and changes in the wet and dry spell distributions of daily precipitation. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Electrical Breakdown of Gases Between Coaxial Cylindrical Electrodes in Crossed Electric and Magnetic Fields

Sparking potentials have been measured in nitrogen and dry air between coaxial cylindrical electrodes for values of n = R2/R1 = approximately 1 to 30 (R1 = inner electrode radius, R2 = outer electrode radius) in the presence of crossed uniform magnetic fields. The magnetic flux density was varied from 0 to 3000 Gauss. It has been shown that the minimum sparking potentials in the presence of the crossed magnetic field can be evaluated on the basis of the equivalent pressure concept when the secondary ionization coefficient does not vary appreciably with B/p (B = magnetic flux density, p = gas pressure). The values of secondary ionization coefficients �¿B in nitrogen in crossed fields calculated from measured values of sparking potentials and Townsend ionization coefficients taken from the literature, have been reported. The calculated values of collision frequencies in nitrogen from minimum sparking potentials in crossed fields are found to increase with increasing B/p at constant E/pe (pe = equivalent pressure). Studies on the similarity relationship in crossed fields has shown that the similarity theorem is obeyed in dry air for both polarities of the central electrode in crossed fields.