Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years

The past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data–model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral δ18O record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data–model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches.

Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality ofa regional paleoclimate simulation at 45 km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events.

Effect of surface restoring on subsurface variability in a climate model during 1949–2005

Initializing the ocean for decadal predictability studies is a challenge, as it requires reconstructing the little observed subsurface trajectory of ocean variability. In this study we explore to what extent surface nudging using well-observed sea surface temperature (SST) can reconstruct the deeper ocean variations for the 1949–2005 period. An ensemble made with a nudged version of the IPSLCM5A model and compared to ocean reanalyses and reconstructed datasets. The SST is restored to observations using a physically-based relaxation coefficient, in contrast to earlier studies, which use a much larger value. The assessment is restricted to the regions where the ocean reanalyses agree, i.e. in the upper 500 m of the ocean, although this can be latitude and basin dependent. Significant reconstruction of the subsurface is achieved in specific regions, namely region of subduction in the subtropical Atlantic, below the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific and, in some cases, in the North Atlantic deep convection regions. Beyond the mean correlations, ocean integrals are used to explore the time evolution of the correlation over 20-year windows. Classical fixed depth heat content diagnostics do not exhibit any significant reconstruction between the different existing bservation-based references and can therefore not be used to assess global average time-varying correlations in the nudged simulations. Using the physically based average temperature above an isotherm (14°C) alleviates this issue in the tropics and subtropics and shows significant reconstruction of these quantities in the nudged simulations for several decades. This skill is attributed to the wind stress reconstruction in the tropics, as already demonstrated in a perfect model study using the same model. Thus, we also show here the robustness of this result in an historical and observational context.

Climate sensitivity of Mediterranean pine growth reveals distinct east-west dipole

The European Mediterranean region is governed by a characteristic climate of summer drought that is likely to increase in duration and intensity under predicted climate change. However, large-scale network analyses investigating spatial aspects of pre-instrumental drought variability for this biogeographic zone are still scarce. In this study we introduce 54 mid- to high-elevation tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies comprising 2186 individual series from pine trees (Pinus spp.). This compilation spans a 4000-km east–west transect from Spain to Turkey, and was subjected to quality control and standardization prior to the development of site chronologies. A principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify spatial growth patterns during the network's common period 1862–1976, and new composite TRW chronologies were developed and investigated. The PCA reveals a common variance of 19.7% over the 54 Mediterranean pine chronologies. More interestingly, a dipole pattern in growth variability is found between the western (15% explained variance) and eastern (9.6%) sites, persisting back to 1330 AD. Pine growth on the Iberian Peninsula and Italy favours warm early growing seasons, but summer drought is most critical for ring width formation in the eastern Mediterranean region. Synoptic climate dynamics that have been in operation for the last seven centuries have been identified as the driving mechanism of a distinct east–west dipole in the growth variability of Mediterranean pines.

Climate and total tree cover reconstructions based on the 43.7-kyr fossil pollen record from Khoe (NW Sakhalin Island) and modern climate variables of 236 modern surface pollen sampling sites

A late Quaternary pollen record from northern Sakhalin Island (51.34°N, 142.14°E, 15 m a.s.l.) spanning the last 43.7 ka was used to reconstruct regional climate dynamics and vegetation distribution by using the modern analogue technique (MAT). The long-term trends of the reconstructed mean annual temperature (TANN) and precipitation (PANN), and total tree cover are generally in line with key palaeoclimate records from the North Atlantic region and the Asian monsoon domain. TANN largely follows the fluctuations in solar summer insolation at 55°N. During Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, TANN and PANN were on average 0.2 °C and 700 mm, respectively, thus very similar to late Holocene/modern conditions. Full glacial climate deterioration (TANN = -3.3 °C, PANN = 550 mm) was relatively weak as suggested by the MAT-inferred average climate parameters and tree cover densities. However, error ranges of the climate reconstructions during this interval are relatively large and the last glacial environments in northern Sakhalin could be much colder and drier than suggested by the weighted average values. An anti-phase relationship between mean temperature of the coldest (MTCO) and warmest (MTWA) month is documented during the last glacial period, i.e. MIS 2 and 3, suggesting more continental climate due to sea levels that were lower than present. Warmest and wettest climate conditions have prevailed since the end of the last glaciation with an optimum (TANN = 1.5 °C, PANN = 800 mm) in the middle Holocene interval (ca 8.7-5.2 cal. ka BP). This lags behind the solar insolation peak during the early Holocene. We propose that this is due to continuous Holocene sea level transgression and regional influence of the Tsushima Warm Current, which reached maximum intensity during the middle Holocene. Several short-term climate oscillations are suggested by our reconstruction results and correspond to Northern Hemisphere Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events, the Bølling-Allerød and the Younger Dryas. The most prominent fluctuation is registered during Heinrich 4 event, which is marked by noticeably colder and drier conditions and the spread of herbaceous taxa.

Calcareous plankton response to orbital and millennial-scale climate changes from ODP Leg 161-975

The paleoenvironmental conditions through MIS 15-9 at the Mediterranean Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 975 were interpreted by high resolution study of calcareous plankton assemblages compared with available d18O and d13C records and high resolution paleoclimate proxies from the Atlantic Ocean. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have been estimated from planktonic foraminiferal assemblages using the artificial neural networks method. Calcareous plankton varied dominantly on a glacial-interglacial scale as testified by the SST record, foraminiferal diversity, total coccolith abundance and changes in warm-water calcareous nannofossil taxa. A general increase in foraminiferal diversity and of total coccolith abundance is observed during interglacials. Warmest SSTs are reached during MIS 11, while MIS 12 and MIS 10 represent the coldest intervals of the studied record. During MIS 12, one of the most extreme glacials of the last million years, occurrence of Globorotalia inflata and of neogloboquadrinids indicates a shoaling of the interface between Atlantic inflowing and Mediterranean outflowing waters. Among calcareous nannofossils the distribution of Gephyrocapsa margereli-G. muellerae > 4 µm also supports a reduced Atlantic-Mediterranean exchange during MIS 12. Superimposed on glacial-interglacial variability, six short-terms coolings are recognized during MIS 12 and 10, which appear comparable in their distribution and amplitude to the Heinrich - type events documented in the Atlantic Ocean in the same interval. During these H-type events, N. pachyderma (s) and G. margereli-G. muellerae > 4 µm increase as a response to the enhanced inflow of cold Atlantic water into the Mediterranean via the Strait of Gibraltar. Mediterranean surface water hydrography appears to have been most severely affected at Termination V during the H-type event Ht4, possibly as a response to a large volume of Atlantic meltwater inflow via the Strait of Gibraltar and/or to freshwater/terrigenous input deriving from local mountain glaciers. Three additional SST coolings are recorded through MIS 14-16, but these are not well correlated with Heinrich - type events documented in the Atlantic Ocean in the same interval; during these cooling episodes only the subpolar Turborotalita quinqueloba increases. These results highlight the sensitive response of the Mediterranean basin to millennial-scale climate variations related to Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet instability and support the hypothesis that the tight connection between high latitude climate dynamics and Mediterranean sea surface water features can be traced through the Middle Pleistocene.

Pollen data and pollen-based climate reconstruction for the KTK1 pollen record from Lake Kotokel

In this study a radiocarbon-dated pollen record from Lake Kotokel (52°47' N, 108°07' E, 458 m a.s.l.) located in southern Siberia east of Lake Baikal was used to derive quantitative characteristics of regional vegetation and climate from about 15 kyr BP (1 kyr = 1000 cal. yr) until today. Quantitative reconstruction of the late glacial vegetation and climate dynamics suggests that open steppe and tundra communities predominated in the study area prior to ca. 13.5 kyr BP and again during the Younger Dryas interval, between 12.8 and 11.6 kyr BP. The pollen-based climate reconstruction suggests lower-than-present mean January (~ -38 °C) and July (~ 12 °C) temperatures and annual precipitation (~ 270-300 mm) values during these time intervals. Boreal woodland replaced the primarily open landscape around Kotokel three times at about 14.8-14.7 kyr BP, during the Allerød Interstadial between 13.3-12.8 kyr BP and with the onset of the Holocene interglacial between 11.5 and 10.5 kyr BP, presumably in response to a noticeable increase in precipitation, and in July and January temperatures. The maximal spread of the boreal forest (taiga) communities in the region is associated with a warmer and wetter-than-present climate (Tw ~ 17-18 °C, Tc ~ -19 °C, Pann ~ 500-550 mm) that occurred ca. 10.8-7.3 kyr BP. During this time interval woody vegetation covered more than 50 % of the area within a 21x21 km window around the lake. The pollen-based best modern analogue reconstruction suggests a decrease in woody cover percentages and in all climatic variables about 7-6.5 kyr BP. Our results demonstrate a gradual decrease in precipitation and mean January temperature towards their present-day values in the region around Lake Kotokel since that time.

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

The Roles of Land and Orography on Precipitation and Ocean Circulation in Global Climate Models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08