Active transport to work in Australia: is it all downhill from here?

Physical inactivity is increasing in Australia and active forms of transportation may be one way to increase the working population’s daily physical activity. We used travel-to-work data from employed persons aged 15 years and over participating in the 1996 (n=7,636,319) and 2001(n=8,298,606) Australian censuses to determine prevalence and trends in walking and cycling to work by state and gender, and differences in prevalence by age. In 2001, 3.8% of Australians walked to work and <1% cycled. Over 64% travelled to work by car. There have been small declines in walking (men and women) and cycling (men) over the 5-years from 1996 to 2001. People were more likely to walk or cycle to work if they lived in the Northern Territory, if they were male or if they were aged 15 to 24 years. They were more likely to travel by car if they lived in the Australian Capital Territory, if they were male, or if they were aged 45-54 years. Few people walk or cycle to work in Australia. Efforts to encourage active transportation are urgently needed.

Regional faunal decline – reptile occurrence in fragmented rural landscapes of south-eastern Australia

Many species of reptiles are sedentary and depend on ground-layer habitats, suggesting that they may be particularly vulnerable to landscape changes that result in isolation or degradation of native vegetation. We investigated patterns of reptile distribution and abundance in remnant woodland across the Victorian Riverina, south-eastern Australia, a bioregion highly modified (>90%) by clearing for agriculture. Reptiles were intensively surveyed by pitfall trapping and censuses at 60 sites, stratified to sample small (<30 ha) and large (>30 ha) remnants, and linear strips of roadside and streamside vegetation, across the regional environmental gradient. The recorded assemblage of 21 species was characterised by low abundance and patchy distribution of species. Reptiles were not recorded by either survey technique at 22% of sites and at a further 10% only a single individual was detected. More than half (53%) of all records were of two widespread, generalist skink species. Multivariate models showed that the distribution of reptiles is influenced by factors operating at several levels. The environmental gradient exerts a strong influence, with increasing species richness and numbers of individuals from east (moister, higher elevation) to west (drier, lower elevation). Differences existed between types of remnants, with roadside vegetation standing out as important; this probably reflects greater structural heterogeneity of ground and shrub strata than in remnants subject to grazing by stock. Although comparative historical data are lacking, we argue that there has been a region-wide decline in the status of reptiles in the Victorian Riverina involving: (1) overall population decline commensurate with loss of >90% of native vegetation; (2) disproportionate decline of grassy dry woodlands and their fauna (cf. floodplains); and (3) changes to populations and assemblages in surviving remnants due to effects of land-use on reptile habitats. Many species now occur as disjunct populations, vulnerable to changing land-use. The status of reptiles in rural Australia warrants greater attention than has been given to date. Effective conservation of this component of the biota requires better understanding of the population dynamics, habitat use and dispersal capacity of species; and a commitment to landscape restoration coupled with effective ecological monitoring.

Epidemiology of acute rheumatic fever in New Zealand 1996-2005

Aim: Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and its sequela chronic rheumatic heart disease remain significant causes of morbidity and mortality in New Zealand, particularly among Māori and Pacific peoples. Despite its importance, ARF epidemiology has not been reviewed recently. The aims of this study were to assess trends in ARF incidence rates between 1996 and 2005 and the extent to which ARF is concentrated in certain populations based on age, sex, ethnicity and geographical location.

Methods: This descriptive epidemiological study examined ARF incidence rates using hospitalisation data (1996–2005) and population data from the 1996 and 2001 censuses. Rates were compared by using rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals.

Results: New Zealand's annual ARF rate was 3.4 per 100 000. ARF was concentrated in certain populations: 5- to 14-year-olds, Māori and Pacific peoples and upper North Island areas. From 1996 to 2005, the New Zealand European and Others ARF rate decreased significantly while Māori and Pacific peoples’ rates increased. Compared with New Zealand European and Others, rate ratios were 10.0 for Māori and 20.7 for Pacific peoples. Of all cases, 59.5% were Māori or Pacific children aged 5–14 years, yet this group comprised only 4.7% of the New Zealand population.

Conclusion: ARF rates in New Zealand have failed to decrease since the 1980s and remain some of the highest reported in a developed country. There are large, and now widening, ethnic disparities in ARF incidence. ARF is so concentrated by age group, ethnicity and geographical area that highly targeted interventions could be considered, based on these characteristics.

Are most samples of animals systematically biased? Consistent individual trait differences bias samples despite random sampling

Sampling animals from the wild for study is something nearly every biologist has done, but despite our best efforts to obtain random samples of animals, ‘hidden’ trait biases may still exist. For example, consistent behavioral traits can affect trappability/catchability, independent of obvious factors such as size and gender, and these traits are often correlated with other repeatable physiological and/or life history traits. If so, systematic sampling bias may exist for any of these traits. The extent to which this is a problem, of course, depends on the magnitude of bias, which is presently unknown because the underlying trait distributions in populations are usually unknown, or unknowable. Indeed, our present knowledge about sampling bias comes from samples (not complete population censuses), which can possess bias to begin with. I had the unique opportunity to create naturalized populations of fish by seeding each of four small fishless lakes with equal densities of slow-, intermediate-, and fast-growing fish. Using sampling methods that are not size-selective, I observed that fast-growing fish were up to two-times more likely to be sampled than slower-growing fish. This indicates substantial and systematic bias with respect to an important life history trait (growth rate). If correlations between behavioral, physiological and life-history traits are as widespread as the literature suggests, then many animal samples may be systematically biased with respect to these traits (e.g., when collecting animals for laboratory use), and affect our inferences about population structure and abundance. I conclude with a discussion on ways to minimize sampling bias for particular physiological/behavioral/life-history types within animal populations.

Is demography destiny? Application of machine learning techniques to accurately predict population health outcomes from a minimal demographic dataset

For years, we have relied on population surveys to keep track of regional public health statistics, including the prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Because of the cost and limitations of such surveys, we often do not have the up-to-date data on health outcomes of a region. In this paper, we examined the feasibility of inferring regional health outcomes from socio-demographic data that are widely available and timely updated through national censuses and community surveys. Using data for 50 American states (excluding Washington DC) from 2007 to 2012, we constructed a machine-learning model to predict the prevalence of six non-communicable disease (NCD) outcomes (four NCDs and two major clinical risk factors), based on population socio-demographic characteristics from the American Community Survey. We found that regional prevalence estimates for non-communicable diseases can be reasonably predicted. The predictions were highly correlated with the observed data, in both the states included in the derivation model (median correlation 0.88) and those excluded from the development for use as a completely separated validation sample (median correlation 0.85), demonstrating that the model had sufficient external validity to make good predictions, based on demographics alone, for areas not included in the model development. This highlights both the utility of this sophisticated approach to model development, and the vital importance of simple socio-demographic characteristics as both indicators and determinants of chronic disease.

Estimating animal populations and body sizes from burrows: marine ecologists have their heads buried in the sand

Most ecological studies require knowledge of animal abundance, but it can be challenging and destructive of habitat to obtain accurate density estimates for cryptic species, such as crustaceans that tunnel deeply into the seafloor, beaches, or mudflats. Such fossorial species are, however, widely used in environmental impact assessments, requiring sampling techniques that are reliable, efficient, and environmentally benign for these species and environments.2.Counting and measuring the entrances of burrows made by cryptic species is commonly employed to index population and body sizes of individuals. The fundamental premise is that burrow metrics consistently predict density and size. Here we review the evidence for this premise. We also review criteria for selecting among sampling methods: burrow counts, visual censuses, and physical collections.3.A simple 1:1 correspondence between the number of holes and population size cannot be assumed. Occupancy rates, indexed by the slope of regression models, vary widely between species and among sites for the same species. Thus, 'average' or 'typical' occupancy rates should not be extrapolated from site- or species specific field validations and then be used as conversion factors in other situations.4.Predictions of organism density made from burrow counts often have large uncertainty, being double to half of the predicted mean value. Whether such prediction uncertainty is 'acceptable' depends on investigators' judgements regarding the desired detectable effect sizes.5.Regression models predicting body size from burrow entrance dimensions are more precise, but parameter estimates of most models are specific to species and subject to site-to-site variation within species.6.These results emphasise the need to undertake thorough field validations of indirect census techniques that include tests of how sensitive predictive models are to changes in habitat conditions or human impacts. In addition, new technologies (e.g. drones, thermal-, acoustic- or chemical sensors) should be used to enhance visual census techniques of burrows and surface-active animals.

"Trabalhadores favelados": identificação da favelas e movimentos sociais no Rio de Janeiro e em Belo Horizonte

A tese aborda o processo de identificação das favelas e sua apropriação pelos movimentos de “trabalhadores favelados”. Em A Invenção das Favelas (2005), Valladares discutiu as favelas como uma representação e invenção social do século XX. Partindo desse marco analítico compartilhado e discutido por outros autores, construímos uma escala de comparação entre Rio de Janeiro e Belo Horizonte. Na primeira parte da tese, compreendemos essa representação como o resultado de um processo identificação. Como observou Noriel, em L’Identification (2006), o Estado moderno foi um dos maiores produtores de tecnologias de identificação, dispositivos de poder que visam conhecer, classificar e governar as populações num dado território. Investigamos como as práticas estatais no Rio de Janeiro e em Belo Horizonte constituíram representações das favelas, delineando um discurso e um dispositivo de poder sobre os territórios da pobreza através de legislações, censos e comissões de estudo. As analogias, particularidades e trocas instituídas no processo de identificação são analisadas, observando a formação de uma retórica da marginalidade social no âmbito do Estado, reproduzindo estigmas sociais, mas também gerando oportunidades para reivindicação de direitos. Nesse sentido, na segunda parte da tese, analisamos os movimentos dos “trabalhadores favelados”, organizados pela União dos Trabalhadores Favelados (UTF) no Rio de Janeiro e Federação dos Trabalhadores Favelados de Belo Horizonte (FTFBH). Compreendemos a forma como esses movimentos sociais organizaram repertórios de ação, apropriando-se da identificação das favelas para reivindicar direitos, mobilizaram-se eleitoralmente, vinculando-se a grupos de esquerda, e propuseram projetos de reforma urbana.

Projeto raia de fogo: aspectos populacionais da raia de fogo (Dasyatis marianae Gomes, Rosa & Gadig, 2000) e pesca de elasmobrânquios no complexo recifal do Parracho de Maracajaú

The species Dasyatis marianae inhabits coastal areas associated with coral reefs, considered endemic to the northeast of Brazil, occurring from the State of Maranhão to the south of Bahia. Specimens of this species are commonly sighted by divers and fishermen in the area of Maracajaú reefs, a complex reef that is part of the Environmental Protection Area of Coral Reefs (EPACR), which was developed in this study about the ecology and biology of the D. marianae, in order to characterize aspects of population structure in the area of the reef complex of Parracho de Maracajaú. We analyzed 120 specimens caught by artisanal fishing site of the size, weight, sex, stage of maturity and stomach contents. Most subjects were adult males (1.7:1) and was more abundant for rays with lengths between 25 and 29cm of LD, where females reach larger sizes, a feature common to other rays. The largest specimens were captured in the area of seagrass, which is preferred for the species. The distribution of species in the area showed an ontogenetic and sexual segregation, where the youthful occur near the beach, which is a likely area for nursery and growth of the adult females prevail in the seagrass, which apparently has a high prey availability, and Adult males are more distant, a higher proportion occurring in outlying areas, suggesting a habit more exploratory than the females. The evaluation of the reproductive system indicated 3 reproductive cycles per year, one young per pregnancy, and showed that the mature males were smaller than females. The cubs of D. marianae size at birth 12 to 15cm LD. As for diet, the species was characterized as carnivorous crustacean specialist. The performance of visual censuses in different localities allowed to evaluate the density of D. marianae in different environments of the complex. The species occurs in greater numbers in seagrass, environment very important for the conservation of the species. 100 individuals of D. marianae marked in reef complex area enrolled in a recapture rate of 3%. Some behavioral aspects were evaluated, as diurnal pattern of activity, interaction with cleaning and fish Pomacanthus paru followers as Lutjanus analis and Carangoides bartholomaei. Overall, much of the information obtained should be used for management of the species

Afinal, quantos éramos? Um estudo da mortalidade pretérita na freguesia da gloriosa Sant Anna

Search mortality in the glorious St. Anna Parish, hinterland of Rio Grande do Norte in the time frame 1788-1838 is the main objective of this research. Questions that the research aims to answer are: how many were after? Data parish deaths allow us to study mortality in Town? To conduct the research, first appealed to the population maps of the years 1777, 1810, 1811, 1824, 1844, 1853; censuses of 1872 and 1890. As well, the first two books of burials / deaths of the Parish, the first dating from 1788 to 1811 and the second from 1812 to 1838 and a book of baptism 1803-1806. Among the findings it was realized that, for now, the question of knowing, "After all, how many were?" Still cannot be answered, because during the analysis we noticed a high rate of underreporting, demonstrated through a study of the first infant mortality, in which the records we have was very high, which goes against the pre-transitional period, but with the exercise of inverse projection found the opposite, a population that would have a life expectancy higher. Demonstrating the problem of underreporting. Infant deaths occur mainly with the male children in the first months of the year due to infectious causes, and in the early days and weeks, we raised a hypothesis is that these deaths have as a backdrop the poor condition of the mother leading to poor training child, thus leading to his early death

Uma análise sociodemográfica dos cuidadores formais de idosos institucionalizados no município de Natal/RN, 2012

The aging population and individual have been the subject of a multitude of studies nowadays. This is probably due to the impact of this phenomenon in various sectors of society, like social security, social assistance and public health. The process of aging of the individual imply the demand for specific services, considering the limitations and vulnerabilities of the individual at that stage of life cycle. The growth of the elderly contingent in the last decades raises challenges for policymakers, the family and also for the society at large. In this scenario, long-stay institutions for the elderly (LSIEs) appear as an option to aid and support the elderly and their family, assisting in all or part in the activities of daily living and self-care. Inside these LSIEs we find the professional responsible for the direct care of the elderly, the formal caregiver. In this context, this dissertation presents two main objectives: an analysis of the phenomenon of population aging in a given brazilian municipality Natal / RN, based on the Demographic Censuses of 2000 e 2010; and a social, demographic and economic characterization of the Formal caregiver for the institutionalized elderly in the municipality, evaluating aspects of his quality of life and also analyzing the institutions where they are inserted. Furthermore, we intend to identify demographic, socioeconomic and quality of life factors that are correlated with caregivers quitting the job. The data used in the second part of this work comes from the research project named Long-Stay Institutions for Elderly: abandonment or a family need? . This survey interviewed 92 caregivers in eleven LSIEs in Natal/RN. In the data treatment logistic regressions, cluster analysis and statistical tests were used. The survey revealed that aging in Natal is more pronounced in the older, more traditional districts: Petrópolis, Lagoa Seca and Tirol. It also allowed a broad characterization of the formal caregivers in LSIEs. Most of these professionals are female. The educational level is predominantly complete high school and more. Most caregivers reported being married or in union, or have ever been in a union. Family monthly income is under three times the minimum wage. The mean age is of 37.4 years. The mean time of work as a caregiver was 5.93 years. The associations showed that being woman, not being single, having caregiving training and physical limitations (regarding quality of life) are related to wanting to quit the caregiving job. As for the characterization of the LSIEs, it was found that the philanthropic ones are older and have most (62.5%) of the institutionalized elderly. The institutions managers gave social interaction and affinity with the elderly as the main criteria with which to evaluate and hire caregivers. It is intended with this study to contribute to improving the quality of life of the elderly and their caregiver, providing information on aspects of institutionalization of elderly both in the philanthropic and particular institutions, in Natal/RN; this dissertation may also be used as a starting point for later works

Geoprocessamento aplicado a gestão de informações territoriais do município de Grossos-RN :estudo multitemporal do uso e ocupação do solo

The present work was carried through in the Grossos city - RN and had as main objectives the elaboration of an physicist-ambient, socioeconomic survey and execution a multisecular evaluation of 11 years, between 1986 and 1996, using remote sensing products, to evaluate the modifications of the land use, aiming at the generation of an information database to implementation a geographical information system (GIS) to management the this city. For they had been in such a way raised given referring the two Demographic Censuses carried through by the IBGE (1991 and 2000) and compared, of this form was possible to the accomplishment of an evaluation on the demographic aspects (degree of urbanization, etária structure, educational level) and economic (income, habitation, vulnerability, human development). For the ambient physical survey the maps of the natural resources had been confectioned (simplified geology, hydrography, geomorphologi, veget covering, ground association, use and occupation), based in comments of field and orbital products of remote sensoriamento (images Spot-HRVIR, Landsat 5-TM and IKONOS - II), using itself of techniques of digital picture processing. The survey of these data and important in the identification of the potentialities and fragilities of found ecosystems, therefore allows an adequate planning of the partner-economic development by means of an efficient management. The project was part of a partnership between the Grossos city hall the municipal City hall of Grossos - RN and the Geoscience post-graduate program of the UFRN, more specifically the Geomatica laboratory LAGEOMA

Protected cerrado fragments grow up and lose even metapopulational birds in central São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Distribuição e tamanho populacional do papagaio-de-cara-roxa Amazona brasiliensis no estado de São Paulo

The Red-tailed Amazon Amazona brasiliensis is one of most threatened psitacid in the world. In the state of São Paulo, SE Brazil, it is restricted to a narrow coastal zone. The total population of A. brasiliensis has been estimated to be around 4,000 birds, but no detailed information is known for São Paulo. We studied the population status and mapped the distribution of A. brasiliensis in the state of São Paulo. Simultaneous censuses were carried out in three main islands (Cananéia, Ilha do Cardoso and Ilha Comprida) with A. brasiliensis populations in 2003 and 2004. We searched the parrots in an area of 1413.28 km2 and visited 69 sites. Amazona brasiliensis were recorded in 55 localities and 12 sleeping roosts. Our census estimated a population of at least 1,221 parrots in the stronghold of their distribution in the state of São Paulo. The highest number of parrots were recorded outside the main protected areas in the region (64% of the population), which may threaten the future of this population. Urban growing is the main threat for the population of São Paulo, and the creation of protected areas in Cananéia and Comprida island is critical for the future of the A. brasiliensis in the area.

Draft biennial programme of regional and international cooperation activities of the Statistical Conference of the Americas of ECLAC, 2007-2009

Includes bibliography