Likelihood-Based Inference for Partially Observed Multi-Type Markov Branching Processes

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Undersampled Critical Branching Processes on Small-World and Random Networks Fail to Reproduce the Statistics of Spike Avalanches

The power-law size distributions obtained experimentally for neuronal avalanches are an important evidence of criticality in the brain. This evidence is supported by the fact that a critical branching process exhibits the same exponent t~3=2. Models at criticality have been employed to mimic avalanche propagation and explain the statistics observed experimentally. However, a crucial aspect of neuronal recordings has been almost completely neglected in the models: undersampling. While in a typical multielectrode array hundreds of neurons are recorded, in the same area of neuronal tissue tens of thousands of neurons can be found. Here we investigate the consequences of undersampling in models with three different topologies (two-dimensional, small-world and random network) and three different dynamical regimes (subcritical, critical and supercritical). We found that undersampling modifies avalanche size distributions, extinguishing the power laws observed in critical systems. Distributions from subcritical systems are also modified, but the shape of the undersampled distributions is more similar to that of a fully sampled system. Undersampled supercritical systems can recover the general characteristics of the fully sampled version, provided that enough neurons are measured. Undersampling in two-dimensional and small-world networks leads to similar effects, while the random network is insensitive to sampling density due to the lack of a well-defined neighborhood. We conjecture that neuronal avalanches recorded from local field potentials avoid undersampling effects due to the nature of this signal, but the same does not hold for spike avalanches. We conclude that undersampled branching-process-like models in these topologies fail to reproduce the statistics of spike avalanches.

Dinocyst assemblage constraints on oceanographic and atmospheric processes in the eastern equatorial Atlantic over the last 44 kyr

A new 44 kyr long record of dinoflagellate (phytoplanktonic organisms) cysts (dinocysts) is presented from a marine sediment core collected on the Congolese margin with the aim of reconstructing past hydrological changes in the equatorial eastern Atlantic Ocean since Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 3. Our high-resolution dinocyst record indicates that significant temperature and moisture variations occurred across the glacial period, the last deglaciation and the Holocene. The use of specific dinocyst taxa, indicative of fluvial, upwelling and Benguela Current past environments for instance, provides insights into the main forcing mechanisms controlling palaeohydrological changes on orbital timescales. In particular, we are able, for the last 44 kyr, to correlate fluvial-sensitive taxa to monsoonal mechanisms related to precession minima–obliquity maxima combinations. While upwelling mechanisms appear as the main drivers for dinoflagellate productivity during MIS 2, dissolved nutrient-enriched Congo River inputs to the ocean also played a significant role in promoting dinoflagellate productivity between approximately 15.5 and 5 ka BP. Finally, this high-resolution dinocyst study permits us to precisely investigate the suborbital timing of the last glacial–interglacial termination, including an atypical warm and wet oceanic LGM signature, northern high-latitude abrupt climate change impacts in the equatorial eastern Atlantic, as well as a two-step decrease in moisture conditions during the Holocene at around 7–6 and 4–3.5 ka BP.

The Effect of Iron Oxide Nanoparticles on the Fate and Transformation of Arsenic in Aquatic Environments

Iron oxides and arsenic are prevalent in the environment. With the increase interest in the use of iron oxide nanoparticles (IONPs) for contaminant remediation and the high toxicity of arsenic, it is crucial that we evaluate the interactions between IONPs and arsenic. The goal was to understand the environmental behavior of IONPs in regards to their particle size, aggregation and stability, and to determine how this behavior influences IONPs-arsenic interactions. A variety of dispersion techniques were investigated to disperse bare commercial IONPs. Vortex was able to disperse commercial hematite nanoparticles into unstable dispersions with particles in the micrometer size range while probe ultrasonication dispersed the particles into stable dispersions of nanometer size ranges for a prolonged period of time. Using probe ultrasonication and vortex to prepare IONPs suspensions of different particle sizes, the adsorption of arsenite and arsenate to bare hematite nanoparticles and hematite aggregates were investigated. To understand the difference in the adsorptive behavior, adsorption kinetics and isotherm parameters were determined. Both arsenite and arsenate were capable of adsorbing to hematite nanoparticles and hematite aggregates but the rate and capacity of adsorption is dependent upon the hematite particle size, the stability of the dispersion and the type of sorbed arsenic species. Once arsenic was adsorbed onto the hematite surface, both iron and arsenic can undergo redox transformation both microbially and photochemically and these processes can be intertwined. Arsenic speciation studies in the presence of hematite particles were performed and the effect of light on the redox process was preliminary quantified. The redox behavior of arsenite and arsenate were different depending on the hematite particle size, the stability of the suspension and the presence of environmental factors such as microbes and light. The results from this study are important and have significant environmental implications as arsenic mobility and bioavailability can be affected by its adsorption to hematite particles and by its surface mediated redox transformation. Moreover, this study furthers our understanding on how the particle size influences the interactions between IONPs and arsenic thereby clarifying the role of IONPs in the biogeochemical cycling of arsenic.

The influence of instructions and body-scaling as constraints on decision-making processes in team sports

Team games conceptualized as dynamical systems engender a view of emergent decision-making behaviour under constraints, although specific effects of instructional and body-scaling constraints have yet to be verified empirically. For this purpose, we studied the effects of task and individual constraints on decision-making processes in basketball. Eleven experienced female players performed 350 trials in 1 vs. 1 sub-phases of basketball in which an attacker tried to perturb the stable state of a dyad formed with a defender (i.e. break the symmetry). In Experiment 1, specific instructions (neutral, risk taking or conservative) were manipulated to observe effects on emergent behaviour of the dyadic system. When attacking players were given conservative instructions, time to cross court mid-line and variability of the attacker's trajectory were significantly greater. In Experiment 2, body-scaling of participants was manipulated by creating dyads with different height relations. When attackers were considerably taller than defenders, there were fewer occurrences of symmetry-breaking. When attackers were considerably shorter than defenders, time to cross court mid-line was significantly shorter than when dyads were composed of athletes of similar height or when attackers were considerably taller than defenders. The data exemplify how interacting task and individual constraints can influence emergent decision-making processes in team ball games.

Distribution of respiratory droplets in enclosed environments under different air distribution methods

Dispersion characteristics of respiratory droplets in indoor environments are of special interest in controlling transmission of airborne diseases. This study adopts an Eulerian method to investigate the spatial concentration distribution and temporal evolution of exhaled and sneezed/coughed droplets within the range of 1.0~10.0μm in an office room with three air distribution methods, i.e. mixing ventilation (MV), displacement ventilation (DV), and under-floor air distribution (UFAD). The diffusion, gravitational settling, and deposition mechanism of particulate matters are well accounted in the one-way coupling Eulerian approach. The simulation results find that exhaled droplets with diameters up to 10.0μm from normal respiration process are uniformly distributed in MV, while they are trapped in the breathing height by thermal stratifications in DV and UFAD, resulting in a high droplet concentration and a high exposure risk to other occupants. Sneezed/coughed droplets are diluted much slower in DV/UFAD than in MV. Low air speed in the breathing zone in DV/UFAD can lead to prolonged residence of droplets in the breathing zone.

Conscious and unconscious processes in human desire

Elaborated Intrusion theory (Kavanagh, Andrade & May 2005) distinguishes between unconscious, associative processes as the precursors of desire, and controlled processes of cognitive elaboration that lead to conscious sensory images of the target of desire and associated affect. We argue that these mental images play a key role in motivating human behavior. Consciousness is functional in that it allows competing goals to be compared and evaluated. The role of effortful cognitive processes in desire helps to explain the different time courses of craving and physiological withdrawal.

Business Creation Processes in Australia : What Start-Up Attempts Get Up and Running, and Why? - A Preliminary Assessment

The Comprehensive Australian Study of Entrepreneurial Emergence (CAUSEE) is the largest study of new firm formation that has ever been undertaken in Australia. CAUSEE follows the development of several samples of new and emerging firms over time. In this report we focus on the drivers of outcomes – in terms of reaching an operational stage vs. terminating the effort – of 493 randomly selected nascent firms whose founders have been comprehensively interviewed on two occasions, 12 months apart. We investigate the outcome effects of three groups of variables: Characteristics of the Venture; Resources Used in the Start-Up Process and Characteristics of the Start-Up Process Itself.

Robot path planning in dynamic environments using a simulated annealing based approach

Mobile robots are widely used in many industrial fields. Research on path planning for mobile robots is one of the most important aspects in mobile robots research. Path planning for a mobile robot is to find a collision-free route, through the robot’s environment with obstacles, from a specified start location to a desired goal destination while satisfying certain optimization criteria. Most of the existing path planning methods, such as the visibility graph, the cell decomposition, and the potential field are designed with the focus on static environments, in which there are only stationary obstacles. However, in practical systems such as Marine Science Research, Robots in Mining Industry, and RoboCup games, robots usually face dynamic environments, in which both moving and stationary obstacles exist. Because of the complexity of the dynamic environments, research on path planning in the environments with dynamic obstacles is limited. Limited numbers of papers have been published in this area in comparison with hundreds of reports on path planning in stationary environments in the open literature. Recently, a genetic algorithm based approach has been introduced to plan the optimal path for a mobile robot in a dynamic environment with moving obstacles. However, with the increase of the number of the obstacles in the environment, and the changes of the moving speed and direction of the robot and obstacles, the size of the problem to be solved increases sharply. Consequently, the performance of the genetic algorithm based approach deteriorates significantly. This motivates the research of this work. This research develops and implements a simulated annealing algorithm based approach to find the optimal path for a mobile robot in a dynamic environment with moving obstacles. The simulated annealing algorithm is an optimization algorithm similar to the genetic algorithm in principle. However, our investigation and simulations have indicated that the simulated annealing algorithm based approach is simpler and easier to implement. Its performance is also shown to be superior to that of the genetic algorithm based approach in both online and offline processing times as well as in obtaining the optimal solution for path planning of the robot in the dynamic environment. The first step of many path planning methods is to search an initial feasible path for the robot. A commonly used method for searching the initial path is to randomly pick up some vertices of the obstacles in the search space. This is time consuming in both static and dynamic path planning, and has an important impact on the efficiency of the dynamic path planning. This research proposes a heuristic method to search the feasible initial path efficiently. Then, the heuristic method is incorporated into the proposed simulated annealing algorithm based approach for dynamic robot path planning. Simulation experiments have shown that with the incorporation of the heuristic method, the developed simulated annealing algorithm based approach requires much shorter processing time to get the optimal solutions in the dynamic path planning problem. Furthermore, the quality of the solution, as characterized by the length of the planned path, is also improved with the incorporated heuristic method in the simulated annealing based approach for both online and offline path planning.

Nutrients build-up and wash-off processes in urban land uses

This thesis describes outcomes of a research study conducted to investigate the nutrient build-up and wash-off processes on urban impervious surfaces. The data needed for the study was generated through a series of field investigations and laboratory test procedures. The study sites were selected in urbanised catchments to represent typical characteristics of residential, industrial and commercial land uses. The build-up and wash-off samples were collected from road surfaces in the selected study sites. A specially designed vacuum collection system and a rainfall simulator were used for sample collection. According to the data analysis, the solids build-up on road surfaces was significantly finer with more than 80% of the particles below 150 ìm for all the land uses. Nutrients were mostly associated with the particle size range below 150 ìm in both build-up and wash-off samples irrespective of type of land use. Therefore, the finer fraction of solids was the most important for the nutrient build-up and particulate nutrient wash-off processes. Consequently, the design of stormwater quality mitigation measures should target particles less than 150 ìm for the removal of nutrients irrespective of type of land use. Total kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) was the most dominant form of nitrogen species in build-up on road surfaces. Phosphorus build-up on road surfaces was mainly in inorganic form and phosphate (PO4 3-) was the most dominant form. The nutrient wash-off process was found to be dependent on rainfall intensity and duration. Concentration of both total nitrogen and phosphorus was higher at the beginning of the rain event and decreased with the increase in rainfall duration. Consequently, in the design of stormwater quality mitigation strategies for nutrients removal, it is important to target the initial period of rain events. The variability of wash-off of nitrogen with rainfall intensity was significantly different to phosphorus wash-off. The concentration of nitrogen was higher in the wash-off for low intensity rain events compared to the wash-off for high intensity rain events. On the other hand, the concentration of phosphorus in the wash-off was high for high intensity rain events compared to low intensity rain events. Consequently, the nitrogen washoff can be defined as a source limiting process and phosphorus wash-off as a transport limiting process. This highlights the importance of taking into consideration the wash-off of low intensity rain events in the design of stormwater quality mitigation strategies targeting the nitrogen removal. All the nitrogen species in wash-off are primarily in dissolved form whereas phosphorus is in particulate form. The differences in the nitrogen and phosphorus wash-off processes is principally due to the degree of solubility, attachment to particulates, composition of total nitrogen and total phosphorus and the degree of adherence of the solids particles to the surface to which nutrients are attached. The particulate nitrogen available for wash-off is removed readily as these are mobilised as free solids particles on the surface. Phosphorus is washed-off mostly with the solids particles which are strongly adhered to the surface or as the fixed solids load. Investigation of the nitrogen wash-off process using bulk wash-off samples was in close agreement with the investigation of dissolved fraction of wash-off solids. This was primarily due to the predominant nature of dissolved nitrogen. However, the investigation of the processes which underpin phosphorus wash-off using bulk washoff samples could lead to loss of information. This is due to the composition of total phosphorus in wash-off solids and the inherent variability of the wash-off process for the different particle size ranges. This variability should preferably be taken into consideration as phosphorus wash-off is predominantly in particulate form. Therefore, care needs to be taken in the investigation of the phosphorus wash-off process using bulk wash-off samples to ensure that there is no loss of information and hence result in misleading outcomes. The investigation of different particle size ranges of wash-off solids is preferable in the interest of designing effective stormwater quality management strategies targeting phosphorus removal.

In-session processes in online counselling with young people : an exploratory approach

Aims : The aim of this study was to conduct an exploratory investigation into the in-session processes and behaviours that occur between therapists and young people in online counseling. Method: The Consensual Qualitative Research method was employed to identify in-session behaviours and a coding instrument was developed to determine their frequency of use and assess whether nuances carried in the meaning of text messages have an influential effect during sessions. Eighty-five single-session transcripts were examined in total by two independent coders. Results: Sample statistics revealed that, on average, rapport-building processes were used more consistently across cases with both types of processes having a moderately strong positive effect on young people. However, closer examination of these processes revealed weaker positive effects for in-session behaviours that rely more heavily on verbal and non-verbal cues to be accurately interpreted. Implications for Practice and Future Research: These findings imply that therapists may focus more on building rapport than accomplishing tasks with young people during online counselling sessions due to the absence of verbal and non-verbal information when communicating via text messages.