Optimal Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods using indirect inference applied to biological process models

This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.

Effects of artificial shade on attack by the mahogany shoot borer, Hypsipyla robusta (Moore)

Swietenia macrophylla King (Meliaceae: Swietenioideae) provides one of the premier timbers of the world. The mahogany shoot borer Hypsipyla robusta Moore (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) is an economically important pest of S. macrophylla throughout Asia, Africa and the Pacific. No viable method of controlling this pest is known. Previous observations have suggested that the presence of overhead shade may reduce attack by H. robusta, but this has not been investigated experimentally. This research was therefore designed to assess the influence of light availability on shoot-borer attack on S. macrophylla, by establishing seedlings under three different artificial shade regimes, then using these seedlings to test oviposition preference of adult moths, neonate larval survival and growth and development of shoot borer larvae. Oviposition preference of shoot borer moths was tested on leaves from seedlings grown under artificial shade for 63 weeks. A significant difference in choice was recorded between treatments, with 27.4 ± 1.5 eggs laid under high shade and 87.1 ± 1.8 under low shade. Neonate larval survival on early flushing leaflets of S. macrophylla did not differ significantly between shade treatments. Larval growth rate, estimated by measuring daily frass width, was significantly higher for those larvae fed on seedlings from the high and medium shade treatments (0.1 mm/day), than the low shade treatment (0.06 mm/day). In laboratory-reared larvae, the total mass of frass produced was significantly higher in the high shade treatment (0.4 g) than under the low shade treatment (0.2 g). Longer tunnel lengths were bored by larvae in plants grown under high shade (12.0 ± 2.4 cm) than under low shade (7.07 ± 1.9 cm). However, pupal mass under low shade was 48% higher than that under the high shade treatment, suggesting that plants grown under high shade were of lower nutritional quality for shoot borer larvae. These results indicate that shading of mahogany seedlings may reduce the incidence of shoot borer attack, by influencing both oviposition and larval development. The establishment of mahogany under suitable shade regimes may therefore provide a basis for controlling shoot borer attack using silvicultural approaches.

Innate transcriptional networks activated in bladder in response to uropathogenic Escherichia coli drive diverse biological pathways and rapid synthesis of IL-10 for defense against bacterial urinary tract infection

Early transcriptional activation events that occur in bladder immediately following bacterial urinary tract infection (UTI) are not well defined. In this study, we describe the whole bladder transcriptome of uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) cystitis in mice using genome-wide expression profiling to define the transcriptome of innate immune activation stemming from UPEC colonization of the bladder. Bladder RNA from female C57BL/6 mice, analyzed using 1.0 ST-Affymetrix microarrays, revealed extensive activation of diverse sets of innate immune response genes, including those that encode multiple IL-family members, receptors, metabolic regulators, MAPK activators, and lymphocyte signaling molecules. These were among 1564 genes differentially regulated at 2 h postinfection, highlighting a rapid and broad innate immune response to bladder colonization. Integrative systems-level analyses using InnateDB (http://www.innatedb.com) bioinformatics and ingenuity pathway analysis identified multiple distinct biological pathways in the bladder transcriptome with extensive involvement of lymphocyte signaling, cell cycle alterations, cytoskeletal, and metabolic changes. A key regulator of IL activity identified in the transcriptome was IL-10, which was analyzed functionally to reveal marked exacerbation of cystitis in IL-10–deficient mice. Studies of clinical UTI revealed significantly elevated urinary IL-10 in patients with UPEC cystitis, indicating a role for IL-10 in the innate response to human UTI. The whole bladder transcriptome presented in this work provides new insight into the diversity of innate factors that determine UTI on a genome-wide scale and will be valuable for further data mining. Identification of protective roles for other elements in the transcriptome will provide critical new insight into the complex cascade of events that underpin UTI.

The cytochrome P-450 isoenzyme CYP2E1 in the biological processing of industrial chemicals : consequences for occupational and environmental medicine

The importance of the isoform CYP2E1 of the human cytochrome P-450 superfamily of enzymes for occupational and environmental medicine is derived from its unique substrate spectrum that includes a number of highly important high-production chemicals, such as aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons, solvents and industrial monomers (i.a. alkanes, alkenes, aromatic and halogenated hydrocarbons). Many polymorphic genes, such as CYP2E1, show considerable differences in allelic distribution between different human populations. The polymorphic nature of the human CYP2E1 gene is significant for inter-individual differences in toxicity of its substrates. Since the substrate spectrum of CYP2E1 includes many compounds of basic relevance to industrial toxicology, a rationale for metabolic interactions of different CYP2E1 substrates is provided. In-depth research into the inter-individual phenotypic differences of human CYP2E1 enzyme activities was enabled by the recognition that the 6-hydroxylation of the drug chlorzoxazone is mediated by CYP2E1. Studies on CYP2E1 phenotyping have pointed to inter-individual variations in enzyme activities. There are consistent ethnic differences in CYP2E1 enzyme expression, mostly demonstrated between European and Japanese populations, which point to a major impact of genetic factors. The most frequently studied genetic polymorphisms are the restriction fragment length polymorphisms PstI/RsaI (mutant allele: CYP2E1*5B) located in the 5′-flanking region of the gene, as well as the DraI polymorphism (mutant allele: CYP2E1*6) located in intron 6. These polymorphisms are partly related, as they form the common allele designated CYP2E1*5A. Striking inter-ethnic differences between Europeans and Asians appear with respect to the frequencies of the CYP2E1*5A allele (only approximately 5% of Europeans are heterozygous, but 37% of Asians are, whilst 6% of Asians are homozygous). Available studies indicate a wide variation in human CYP2E1 expression, which are very likely based on complex gene-environment interactions. Major inter-ethnic differences are apparent on the genotyping and the phenotyping levels. Selected cases are presented where inter-ethnic variations of CYP2E1 may provide likely explanations for unexplained findings concerning industrial chemicals that are CYP2E1 substrates. Possible consequences of differential inter-individual and inter-ethnic susceptibilities are related to individual expressions of clinical symptoms of chemical toxicity, to results of biological monitoring of exposed workers, and to the interpretation of results of epidemiological or molecular-epidemiological studies.

Biological monitoring and Biological Limit Values (BLV): the strategy of the European Union

Occupational standards concerning allowable concentrations of chemical compounds in the ambient air of workplaces have been established in several countries worldwide. With the integration of the European Union (EU), there has been a need of establishing harmonised Occupational Exposure Limits (OEL). The European Commission Directive 95/320/EC of 12 July 1995 has given the tasks to a Scientific Committee for Occupational Exposure Limits (SCOEL) to propose, based on scientific data and where appropriate, occupational limit values which may include the 8-h time-weighted average (TWA), short-term limits/excursion limits (STEL) and Biological Limit Values (BLVs). In 2000, the European Union issued a list of 62 chemical substances with Occupational Exposure Limits. Of these, 25 substances received a "skin" notation, indicating that toxicologically significant amounts may be taken up via the skin. For such substances, monitoring of concentrations in ambient air may not be sufficient, and biological monitoring strategies appear of potential importance in the medical surveillance of exposed workers. Recent progress has been made with respect to formulation of a strategy related to health-based BLVs.

Biological monitoring in workers in a nitrobenzene reduction plant : Haemoglobin versus serum albumin adducts

The high priority of monitoring workers exposed to nitrobenzene is a consequence of clear findings of experimental carcinogenicity of nitrobenzene and the associated evaluations by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Eighty male employees of a nitrobenzene reduction plant, with potential skin contact with nitrobenzene and aniline, participated in a current medical surveillance programme. Blood samples were routinely taken and analysed for aniline, 4-aminodiphenyl (4-ADP) and benzidine adducts of haemoglobin (Hb) and human serum albumin (HSA). Also, levels of methaemoglobin (Met-Hb) and of carbon monoxide haemoglobin (CO-Hb) were monitored. Effects of smoking were straightforward. Using the rank sum test of Wilcoxon, we found that very clear-cut and statistically significant smoking effects (about 3-fold increases) were apparent on CO-Hb (P = 0.00085) and on the Hb adduct of 4-ADP (P = 0.0006). The mean aniline-Hb adduct level in smokers was 1.5 times higher than in non-smokers; the significance (P = 0.05375) was close to the 5% level. The strongest correlation was evident between the Hb and HSA adducts of aniline (rs = 0.846). Less pronounced correlations (but with P values < 0.02) appeared between aniline-Hb and 4-ADP-Hb adducts (rs = 0.388), between 4-ADP and 4-ADP-HSA adducts (rs = 0.373), and between 4-ADP-Hb and aniline-HSA adducts (rs = 0.275). In view of the proposal for additional use of the aniline-HSA adduct for biological monitoring, particularly in cases of acute overexposures or poisonings, the strong correlation of the Hb and HSA conjugates is noteworthy; the ratio aniline-HSA:aniline-Hb was 1:42 for the entire cohort.

Morphometric modelling of ageing in the human pubic symphysis : sexual dimorphism in an Australian population

Despite the prominent use of the pubic symphysis for age estimation in forensic anthropology, little has been documented regarding the quantitative morphological and micro-architectural changes of this surface. Specifically, utilising post-mortem computed tomography data from a large, contemporary Australian adult population, this study aimed to evaluate sexual dimorphism in the morphology and bone composition of the symphyseal surface; and temporal characterisation of the pubic symphysis in individuals of advancing age. The sample consisted of multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis(slice thickness: 0.5 mm, overlap: 0.1 mm) of 200 individuals of Caucasian ancestry aged 15–70 years, obtained in 2011. Surface rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in OsiriX1 (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform XOSTM and OsteomeasureTM. Morphometric variables including inter-pubic distance, surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone compositions were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The major results of this study are correlated with the macroscopic ossification and degeneration pattern of the symphyseal surface, demonstrating significant age-related changes in the morphometric and bone tissue variables between 15 and 70 years. Regardless of sex, the overall dimensions of the symphyseal surface increased with age, coupled with a decrease in bone mass in the trabecular and cortical bone compartments. Significant differences between the ventral, dorsal and medial cortical surfaces were observed, which may be correlated to bone formation activity dependent on muscle activity and ligamentous attachments. Our study demonstrates significant sexual dimorphism at this site, with males exhibiting greater surface dimensions than females. These baseline results provide a detailed insight into the changes in the structure of the pubic symphysis with ageing and sexually dimorphic features associated with the cortical and trabecular bone profiles.

One and the same: Integrative taxonomic evidence that Bactrocera invadens (Diptera: Tephritidae) is the same species as the Oriental fruit fly Bactrocera dorsalis

The invasive fruit fly Bactrocera invadens Drew, Tsuruta & White, and the Oriental fruit fly Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) are highly destructive horticultural pests of global significance. Bactrocera invadens originates from the Indian subcontinent and has recently invaded all of sub-Saharan Africa, while B. dorsalis principally occurs from the Indian subcontinent towards southern China and South-east Asia. High morphological and genetic similarity has cast doubt over whether B. invadens is a distinct species from B. dorsalis. Addressing this issue within an integrative taxonomic framework, we sampled from across the geographic distribution of both taxa and: (i) analysed morphological variation, including those characters considered diagnostic (scutum colour, length of aedeagus, width of postsutural lateral vittae, wing size, and wing shape); (ii) sequenced four loci (ITS1, ITS2, cox1 and nad4) for phylogenetic inference, and; (iii) generated a cox1 haplotype network to examine population structure. Molecular analyses included the closely related species, Bactrocera kandiensis Drew & Hancock. Scutum colour varies from red-brown to fully black for individuals from Africa and the Indian subcontinent. All individuals east of the Indian subcontinent are black except for a few red-brown individuals from China. The postsutural lateral vittae width of B. invadens is narrower than B. dorsalis from eastern Asia, but the variation is clinal, with subcontinent B. dorsalis populations intermediate in size. Aedeagus length, wing shape and wing size cannot discriminate between the two taxa. Phylogenetic analyses failed to resolve B. invadens from B. dorsalis, but did resolve B. kandiensis. Bactrocera dorsalis and B. invadens shared cox1 haplotypes, yet the haplotype network pattern does not reflect current taxonomy or patterns in thoracic colour. Some individuals of B. dorsalis/B. invadens possessed haplotypes more closely related to B. kandiensis than to conspecifics, suggestive of mitochondrial introgression between these species. The combined evidence fails to support the delimitation of B. dorsalis and B. invadens as separate biological species. Consequently, existing biological data for B. dorsalis may be applied to the invasive population in Africa. Our recommendation, in line with other recent publications, is that B. invadens be synonymized with B. dorsalis.

Development and application of Palygorskite porous ceramsite in a biological aerated filter (BAF)

Novel filter Palygorskite porous ceramsite (PC) was prepared using Palygorskite clay, poreforming material sawdust, and sodium silicate with a mass ratio of 10:2:1 after sintering at 700°C for 180 min. PC was characterized with X-ray diffraction, X-ray fluorescence, scanning electron microscopy, elemental, and porosimetry. PC had a total porosity of 67% and specific surface area of 61 m2/g. In order to assess the usefulness of PC as a medium for biological aerated filters (BAF), PC and (commercially available ceramsite) CAC were used to treat wastewater city in two laboratory-scale upflow BAFs. The results showed that the reactor containing PC was more efficient than the reactor containing CAC in terms of total organic carbon (TOC), ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N), and the removal of total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (P). This system was found to be more efficient at water temperatures ranging from 20 to 26°C, an air–water (A/W) ratio of 3:1, dissolved oxygen concentration >4.00 mg/L, and hydraulic retention time (HRT) ranging from 0.5 to 7 h. The interconnected porous structure produced for PC was suitable for microbial growth, and primarily protozoan and metazoan organisms were found in the biofilm. Microorganism growth also showed that, under the same submerged culture conditions, the biological mass in PC was significantly higher than in CAC (34.1 and 2.2 mg TN/g, respectively). In this way, PC media can be considered suitable for the use as a medium in novel biological aerated filters for the simultaneous removal of nitrogen and phosphorus.

A strain-based failure criterion for pillar stability analysis

Strain-based failure criteria have several advantages over stress-based failure criteria: they can account for elastic and inelastic strains, they utilise direct, observables effects instead of inferred effects (strain gauges vs. stress estimates), and model complete stress-strain curves including pre-peak, non-linear elasticity and post-peak strain weakening. In this study, a strain-based failure criterion derived from thermodynamic first principles utilising the concepts of continuum damage mechanics is presented. Furthermore, implementation of this failure criterion into a finite-element simulation is demonstrated and applied to the stability of underground mining coal pillars. In numerical studies, pillar strength is usually expressed in terms of critical stresses or stress-based failure criteria where scaling with pillar width and height is common. Previous publications have employed the finite-element method for pillar stability analysis using stress-based failure criterion such as Mohr-Coulomb and Hoek-Brown or stress-based scalar damage models. A novel constitutive material model, which takes into consideration anisotropy as well as elastic strain and damage as state variables has been developed and is presented in this paper. The damage threshold and its evolution are strain-controlled, and coupling of the state variables is achieved through the damage-induced degradation of the elasticity tensor. This material model is implemented into the finite-element software ABAQUS and can be applied to 3D problems. Initial results show that this new material model is capable of describing the non-linear behaviour of geomaterials commonly observed before peak strength is reached as well as post-peak strain softening. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the model can account for directional dependency of failure behaviour (i.e. anisotropy) and has the potential to be expanded to environmental controls like temperature or moisture.

Physical, chemical, biological and ecotoxicological properties of wastewater discharged from Davis Station, Antarctica

The properties and toxicity of untreatedwastewater at Davis Station, East Antarctica,were investigated to inform decisions regarding the appropriate level of treatment for local discharge purposes and more generally, to better understand the risk associated with dispersal and impact of wastewaters in Antarctica. Suspended solids, nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus), biological oxygen demand (BOD), metals, organic contaminants, surfactants and microbiological load were measured at various locations throughout the wastewater discharge system. Wastewater quality and properties varied greatly between buildings on station, each ofwhich has separate holding tanks. Nutrients, BOD and settleable solid levelswere higher than standard municipal wastewaters. Microbiological loads were typical of untreated wastewater. Contaminants detected in the wastewater included metals and persistent organic compounds, mainly polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). The toxicity of wastewater was also investigated in laboratory bioassays using two local Antarctic marine invertebrates, the amphipod Paramoera walkeri and the microgastropod Skenella paludionoides. Animals were exposed to a range of wastewater concentrations from3% to 68% (test 1) or 63% (test 2) over 21 days with survival monitored daily. Significant mortality occurred in all concentrations of wastewater after 14 to 21 days, and at higher concentrations (50–68% wastewater) mortality occurred after only one day. Results indicate that the local receiving marine environment at Davis Station is at risk from existing wastewater discharges, and that advanced treatment is required both to remove contaminants shown to cause toxicity to biota, as well as to reduce the environmental risks associated with non-native micro-organisms in wastewater.