Estimating Frequencies of Minority Nevirapine-Resistant Strains in Chronically HIV-1-Infected Individuals Naive to Nevirapine by Using Stochastic Simulations and a Mathematical Model

Nevirapine forms the mainstay of our efforts to curtail the pediatric AIDS epidemic through prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1. A key limitation, however, is the rapid selection of HIV-1 strains resistant to nevirapine following the administration of a single dose. This rapid selection of resistance suggests that nevirapine-resistant strains preexist in HIV-1 patients and may adversely affect outcomes of treatment. The frequencies of nevirapine-resistant strains in vivo, however, remain poorly estimated, possibly because they exist as a minority below current assay detection limits. Here, we employ stochastic simulations and a mathematical model to estimate the frequencies of strains carrying different combinations of the common nevirapine resistance mutations K103N, V106A, Y181C, Y188C, and G190A in chronically infected HIV-1 patients naive to nevirapine. We estimate the relative fitness of mutant strains from an independent analysis of previous competitive growth assays. We predict that single mutants are likely to preexist in patients at frequencies (similar to 0.01% to 0.001%) near or below current assay detection limits (>0.01%), emphasizing the need for more-sensitive assays. The existence of double mutants is subject to large stochastic variations. Triple and higher mutants are predicted not to exist. Our estimates are robust to variations in the recombination rate, cellular superinfection frequency, and the effective population size. Thus, with 10(7) to 10(8) infected cells in HIV-1 patients, even when undetected, nevirapine-resistant genomes may exist in substantial numbers and compromise efforts to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1, accelerate the failure of subsequent antiretroviral treatments, and facilitate the transmission of drug resistance.

Aspiration-based utility functions in a planning model for timber flow management.

The study presents a theory of utility models based on aspiration levels, as well as the application of this theory to the planning of timber flow economics. The first part of the study comprises a derivation of the utility-theoretic basis for the application of aspiration levels. Two basic models are dealt with: the additive and the multiplicative. Applied here solely for partial utility functions, aspiration and reservation levels are interpreted as defining piecewisely linear functions. The standpoint of the choices of the decision-maker is emphasized by the use of indifference curves. The second part of the study introduces a model for the management of timber flows. The model is based on the assumption that the decision-maker is willing to specify a shape of income flow which is different from that of the capital-theoretic optimum. The utility model comprises four aspiration-based compound utility functions. The theory and the flow model are tested numerically by computations covering three forest holdings. The results show that the additive model is sensitive even to slight changes in relative importances and aspiration levels. This applies particularly to nearly linear production possibility boundaries of monetary variables. The multiplicative model, on the other hand, is stable because it generates strictly convex indifference curves. Due to a higher marginal rate of substitution, the multiplicative model implies a stronger dependence on forest management than the additive function. For income trajectory optimization, a method utilizing an income trajectory index is more efficient than one based on the use of aspiration levels per management period. Smooth trajectories can be attained by squaring the deviations of the feasible trajectories from the desired one.

Scroll-Wave Dynamics in Human Cardiac Tissue: Lessons from a Mathematical Model with Inhomogeneities and Fiber Architecture

Cardiac arrhythmias, such as ventricular tachycardia (VT) and ventricular fibrillation (VF), are among the leading causes of death in the industrialized world. These are associated with the formation of spiral and scroll waves of electrical activation in cardiac tissue; single spiral and scroll waves are believed to be associated with VT whereas their turbulent analogs are associated with VF. Thus, the study of these waves is an important biophysical problem. We present a systematic study of the combined effects of muscle-fiber rotation and inhomogeneities on scroll-wave dynamics in the TNNP (ten Tusscher Noble Noble Panfilov) model for human cardiac tissue. In particular, we use the three-dimensional TNNP model with fiber rotation and consider both conduction and ionic inhomogeneities. We find that, in addition to displaying a sensitive dependence on the positions, sizes, and types of inhomogeneities, scroll-wave dynamics also depends delicately upon the degree of fiber rotation. We find that the tendency of scroll waves to anchor to cylindrical conduction inhomogeneities increases with the radius of the inhomogeneity. Furthermore, the filament of the scroll wave can exhibit drift or meandering, transmural bending, twisting, and break-up. If the scroll-wave filament exhibits weak meandering, then there is a fine balance between the anchoring of this wave at the inhomogeneity and a disruption of wave-pinning by fiber rotation. If this filament displays strong meandering, then again the anchoring is suppressed by fiber rotation; also, the scroll wave can be eliminated from most of the layers only to be regenerated by a seed wave. Ionic inhomogeneities can also lead to an anchoring of the scroll wave; scroll waves can now enter the region inside an ionic inhomogeneity and can display a coexistence of spatiotemporal chaos and quasi-periodic behavior in different parts of the simulation domain. We discuss the experimental implications of our study.

Mathematical model of COREX melter gasifier: Part II. Dynamic model

A dynamic model of the COREX melter gasifier is developed to study the transient behavior of the furnace. The effect of pulse disturbance and step disturbance on the process performance has been studied. This study shows that the effect of pulse disturbance decays asymptotically. The step change brings the system to a new steady state after a delay of about 5 hours. The dynamic behavior of the melter gasifier with respect to a shutdown/blow-on condition and the effect of tapping are also studied. The results show that the time response of the melter gasifier is much less than that of a blast furnace.

Mathematical model of COREX melter gasifier: Part I. Steady-state model

The COREX melter gasifier is a countercurrent reactor to produce liquid iron. Directly reduced iron (DRI), noncoking coal, and other additives are charged to the melter gasifier at their respective temperatures, and O-2 is blown through the tuyeres. Functionally, a melter gasifier is divided into three zones: a moving bed, fluidized bed, and free board. A model has been developed for the moving bed, where the tuyere region is two-dimensional (2-D) and the rest is one-dimensional (1-D). It is based on multiphase conservation of mass, momentum, and heat. The fluidized bed has been treated as 1-D. Partial equilibrium is calculated for the free board. The calculated temperature of the hot metal, the top gas, and the chemistry of the top gas agree with the reported plant data. The model has been used to study the effects of bed height, injection of impure O-2, coal chemistry, and reactivity on the process performance.

On the Decidability of Model-Checking Information Flow Properties

Current standard security practices do not provide substantial assurance about information flow security: the end-to-end behavior of a computing system. Noninterference is the basic semantical condition used to account for information flow security. In the literature, there are many definitions of noninterference: Non-inference, Separability and so on. Mantel presented a framework of Basic Security Predicates (BSPs) for characterizing the definitions of noninterference in the literature. Model-checking these BSPs for finite state systems was shown to be decidable in [8]. In this paper, we show that verifying these BSPs for the more expressive system model of pushdown systems is undecidable. We also give an example of a simple security property which is undecidable even for finite-state systems: the property is a weak form of non-inference called WNI, which is not expressible in Mantel’s BSP framework.

Mathematical Model of Viral Kinetics In Vitro Estimates the Number of E2-CD81 Complexes Necessary for Hepatitis C Virus Entry

Interaction between the hepatitis C virus (HCV) envelope protein E2 and the host receptor CD81 is essential for HCV entry into target cells. The number of E2-CD81 complexes necessary for HCV entry has remained difficult to estimate experimentally. Using the recently developed cell culture systems that allow persistent HCV infection in vitro, the dependence of HCV entry and kinetics on CD81 expression has been measured. We reasoned that analysis of the latter experiments using a mathematical model of viral kinetics may yield estimates of the number of E2-CD81 complexes necessary for HCV entry. Here, we constructed a mathematical model of HCV viral kinetics in vitro, in which we accounted explicitly for the dependence of HCV entry on CD81 expression. Model predictions of viral kinetics are in quantitative agreement with experimental observations. Specifically, our model predicts triphasic viral kinetics in vitro, where the first phase is characterized by cell proliferation, the second by the infection of susceptible cells and the third by the growth of cells refractory to infection. By fitting model predictions to the above data, we were able to estimate the threshold number of E2-CD81 complexes necessary for HCV entry into human hepatoma-derived cells. We found that depending on the E2-CD81 binding affinity, between 1 and 13 E2-CD81 complexes are necessary for HCV entry. With this estimate, our model captured data from independent experiments that employed different HCV clones and cells with distinct CD81 expression levels, indicating that the estimate is robust. Our study thus quantifies the molecular requirements of HCV entry and suggests guidelines for intervention strategies that target the E2-CD81 interaction. Further, our model presents a framework for quantitative analyses of cell culture studies now extensively employed to investigate HCV infection.

Nonequilibrium arrhythmic states and transitions in a mathematical model for diffuse fibrosis in human cardiac tissue

We present a comprehensive numerical study of spiral-and scroll-wave dynamics in a state-of-the-art mathematical model for human ventricular tissue with fiber rotation, transmural heterogeneity, myocytes, and fibroblasts. Our mathematical model introduces fibroblasts randomly, to mimic diffuse fibrosis, in the ten Tusscher-Noble-Noble-Panfilov (TNNP) model for human ventricular tissue; the passive fibroblasts in our model do not exhibit an action potential in the absence of coupling with myocytes; and we allow for a coupling between nearby myocytes and fibroblasts. Our study of a single myocyte-fibroblast (MF) composite, with a single myocyte coupled to N-f fibroblasts via a gap-junctional conductance G(gap), reveals five qualitatively different responses for this composite. Our investigations of two-dimensional domains with a random distribution of fibroblasts in a myocyte background reveal that, as the percentage P-f of fibroblasts increases, the conduction velocity of a plane wave decreases until there is conduction failure. If we consider spiral-wave dynamics in such a medium we find, in two dimensions, a variety of nonequilibrium states, temporally periodic, quasiperiodic, chaotic, and quiescent, and an intricate sequence of transitions between them; we also study the analogous sequence of transitions for three-dimensional scroll waves in a three-dimensional version of our mathematical model that includes both fiber rotation and transmural heterogeneity. We thus elucidate random-fibrosis-induced nonequilibrium transitions, which lead to conduction block for spiral waves in two dimensions and scroll waves in three dimensions. We explore possible experimental implications of our mathematical and numerical studies for plane-, spiral-, and scroll-wave dynamics in cardiac tissue with fibrosis.

Spiral-Wave Dynamics in a Mathematical Model of Human Ventricular Tissue with Myocytes and Fibroblasts

Cardiac fibroblasts, when coupled functionally with myocytes, can modulate the electrophysiological properties of cardiac tissue. We present systematic numerical studies of such modulation of electrophysiological properties in mathematical models for (a) single myocyte-fibroblast (MF) units and (b) two-dimensional (2D) arrays of such units; our models build on earlier ones and allow for zero-, one-, and two-sided MF couplings. Our studies of MF units elucidate the dependence of the action-potential (AP) morphology on parameters such as E-f, the fibroblast resting-membrane potential, the fibroblast conductance G(f), and the MF gap-junctional coupling G(gap). Furthermore, we find that our MF composite can show autorhythmic and oscillatory behaviors in addition to an excitable response. Our 2D studies use (a) both homogeneous and inhomogeneous distributions of fibroblasts, (b) various ranges for parameters such as G(gap), G(f), and E-f, and (c) intercellular couplings that can be zero-sided, one-sided, and two-sided connections of fibroblasts with myocytes. We show, in particular, that the plane-wave conduction velocity CV decreases as a function of G(gap), for zero-sided and one-sided couplings; however, for two-sided coupling, CV decreases initially and then increases as a function of G(gap), and, eventually, we observe that conduction failure occurs for low values of G(gap). In our homogeneous studies, we find that the rotation speed and stability of a spiral wave can be controlled either by controlling G(gap) or E-f. Our studies with fibroblast inhomogeneities show that a spiral wave can get anchored to a local fibroblast inhomogeneity. We also study the efficacy of a low-amplitude control scheme, which has been suggested for the control of spiral-wave turbulence in mathematical models for cardiac tissue, in our MF model both with and without heterogeneities.

Two-Dimensional Kinematic Wave Model of Overland-Flow

A two-dimensional kinematic wave model was developed for simulating runoff generation and flow concentration on an experimental infiltrating hillslope receiving artificial rainfall. Experimental observations on runoff generation and flow concentration on irregular hillslopes showed that the topography of the slope surface controlled the direction and flow lines of overland flow. The model-simulated results satisfactorily compared with experimental observations. The erosive ability of the concentrated flow was found to mainly depend on the ratio of the width and depth of confluent grooves.