Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

Life cycle evolution in the Digenea: a new perspective from phylogeny

We use a new molecular phylogeny, developed from small and large subunit ribosomal RNA genes, to explore evolution of the digenean life cycle. Our approach is to map character states on the phylogeny and then use parsimony to infer how the character evolved. We conclude that, plesiomorphically, digenean miracidia hatched from eggs and penetrated gastropod first intermediate hosts externally. Fork-tailed cercariae were produced in rediae and emerged from the snail to be eaten directly by the teleost definitive host. These plesiomorphic characters are seen in extant Bivesiculidae. We infer that external encystment and the use of second intermediate hosts are derived from this behaviour and that second intermediate hosts have been adopted repeatedly. Tetrapod definitive hosts have also been adopted repeatedly. The new phylogeny proposes a basal dichotomy between 'Diplostomida' (Diplostomoidea, Schistosomatoidea and Brachylaimoidea) and 'Plagiorchiida' (all other digeneans). There is no evidence for coevolution between these clades and groups of gastropods. The most primitive life cycles are seen in basal Plagiorchiida. Basal Diplostomida have three-host life cycles and are associated with tetrapods. The blood flukes (Schistosomatoidea) are inferred to have derived their two-host life cycles by abbreviating three-host cycles. Diplostomida have no adult stages in fishes except by life cycle abbreviation. We present and test a radical hypothesis that the blood-fluke cycle is plesiomorphic within the Diplostomida.

An expanded phylogeny of the Entodiniomorphida (Ciliophora : Litostomatea)

The Entodiniomorphida are a diverse and morphologically complex group of ciliates which are symbiotic within the digestive tracts of herbivorous mammals. Previous phylogenies of the group have exclusively considered members of one family, the Ophryoscolecidae, which are symbiotic within ruminants. We sought to improve understanding of evolution within the entodiniomorphs by expanding the range of ciliates examined to include the Cycloposthiidae and Macropodimidae (symbionts of equids and macropodids respectively). The entire SSU-rRNA gene was sequenced for 3 species, Cycloposthium edentatum, Macropodinium ennuensis and M. yalanbense, and aligned against 14 litostome species and 2 postciliodesmatophoran outgroup species. Cycloposthium was consistently grouped as the sister-taxon to the Ophryoscolecidae although support for this relationship was low. This suggests that there is more evolutionary distance between the Cycloposthiidae and Ophryoscolecidae than previously inferred from studies of gross morphology, cell ontogeny or ultrastructure. In contrast, Macropodinium did not group with any of the entodiniomorphs, instead forming the sister group to the entire Trichostomatia (Entodiniomorphida + Vestibuliferida). This early diverging position for the macropodiniids is concordant with their morphology and ontogeny which failed to group the family with any of the entodiniomorph suborders. The currently accepted classification of the Trichostomatia is thus deficient and in need of review.

Phylogeny of the lice (Insecta, Phthiraptera) inferred from small subunit rRNA

There has been much argument about the phylogenetic relationships of the four suborders of lice (Insecta: Phthiraptera). Lyal's study of the morphology of lice indicated that chewing/biting lice (Mallophaga) are paraphyletic with respect to sucking lice (Anoplura). To test this hypothesis we inferred the phylogeny of 33 species of lice from small subunit (SSU) rRNA sequences (18S rRNA). Liposcelis sp. from the Liposcelididae (Psocoptera) was used for outgroup reference. Phylogenetic relationships among the four suborders of lice inferred from these sequences were the same as those inferred from morphology. The Amblycera is apparently the sister-group to all other lice whereas the Rhynchophthirina is apparently sister to the Anoplura; these two suborders are sister to the Ischnocera, i.e. (Amblycera (Ischnocera (Anoplura, Rhynchophthirina))). Thus, the Mallophaga (Amblycera, Ischnocera, Rhynchophthirina) is apparently paraphyletic with respect to the Anoplura. Our analyses also provide evidence that: (i) each of the three suborders of lice that are well represented in our study (the Amblycera, Ischnocera, and Anoplura) are monophyletic; (ii) the Boopiidae is monophyletic; (iii) the genera Heterodoxus and Latumcephalum (Boopiidae) are more closely related to one another than either is to the genus Boopia (also Boopiidae); (iv) the Ricinidae and Laemobothridae may be sister-taxa; (v) the Philopteridae may be paraphyletic with respect to the Trichodectidae; (vi) the genera Pediculus and Pthirus are more closely related to each other than either is to the genus Pedicinus ; and (vii) in contrast to published data for mitochondrial genes, the rates of nucleotide substitution in the SSU rRNA of lice are not higher than those of other insects, nor do substitution rates in the suborders differ substantially from one another.

Phylogeny of the Sporobolus indicus complex, based on internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences

The entire internal transcribed spacer ( ITS) region, including the 5.8S subunit of the nuclear ribosomal DNA ( rDNA), was sequenced by direct double-stranded sequencing of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplified fragments. The study included 40 Sporobolus ( Family Poaceae, subfamily Chloridoideae) seed collections from 14 putative species ( all 11 species from the S. indicus complex and three Australian native species). These sequences, along with those from two out-group species [ Pennisetum alopecuroides ( L.) Spreng. and Heteropogon contortus ( L.) P. Beauv. ex Roemer & Schultes, Poaceae, subfamily Panicoideae], were analysed by the parsimony method (PAUP; version 4.0b4a) to infer phylogenetic relationships among these species. The length of the ITS1, 5.8S subunit and ITS2 region were 222, 164 and 218 base pairs ( bp), respectively, in all species of the S. indicus complex, except for the ITS2 region of S. diandrus P. Beauv. individuals, which was 217 bp long. Of the 624 characters included in the analysis, 245 ( 39.3%) of the 330 variable sites contained potential phylogenetic information. Differences in sequences among the members of the S. pyramidalis P. Beauv., S. natalensis (Steud.) Dur & Schinz and S. jacquemontii Kunth. collections were 0%, while differences ranged from 0 to 2% between these and other species of the complex. Similarly, differences in sequences among collections of S. laxus B. K. Simon, S. sessilis B. K. Simon, S. elongatus R. Br. and S. creber De Nardi were 0%, compared with differences of 1-2% between these four species and the rest of the complex. When comparing S. fertilis ( Steud.) Clayton and S. africanus (Poir.) Robyns & Tourney, differences between collections ranged from 0 to 1%. Parsimony analysis grouped all 11 species of the S. indicus complex together, indicating a monophyletic origin. For the entire data set, pair-wise distances among members of the S. indicus complex varied from 0.00 to 1.58%, compared with a range of 20.08-21.44% among species in the complex and the Australian native species studied. A strict consensus phylogenetic tree separated 11 species of the S. indicus complex into five major clades. The phylogeny, based on ITS sequences, was found to be congruent with an earlier study on the taxonomic relationship of the weedy Sporobolus grasses revealed from random amplified polymorphic DNA ( RAPD). However, this cladistic analysis of the complex was not in agreement with that created on past morphological analyses and therefore gives a new insight into the phylogeny of the S. indicus complex.

Biogeography, host specificity, and molecular phylogeny of the basidiomycetous yeast phaffia rhodozyma and its sexual form, xanthophyllomyces dendrorhous

Applied and Environmental Microbiology, Vol. 73, No.4

Phylogeny and phenotypic characterization of pathogenic cryptococcus species and closely related saprobic taxa in the tremellales

Eukaryotic Cell, Vol.8, Nº3

Reinforcement Learning Based on the Bayesian Theorem for Electricity Markets Decision Support

This paper presents the applicability of a reinforcement learning algorithm based on the application of the Bayesian theorem of probability. The proposed reinforcement learning algorithm is an advantageous and indispensable tool for ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to electricity market negotiating players. ALBidS uses a set of different strategies for providing decision support to market players. These strategies are used accordingly to their probability of success for each different context. The approach proposed in this paper uses a Bayesian network for deciding the most probably successful action at each time, depending on past events. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested using electricity market simulations in MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets). MASCEM provides the means for simulating a real electricity market environment, based on real data from real electricity market operators.

Molecular analysis of the dengue virus type 1 and 2 in Brazil based on sequences of the genomic envelope-nonstructural protein 1 junction region

The genomic sequences of the Envelope-Non-Structural protein 1 junction region (E/NS1) of 84 DEN-1 and 22 DEN-2 isolates from Brazil were determined. Most of these strains were isolated in the period from 1995 to 2001 in endemic and regions of recent dengue transmission in São Paulo State. Sequence data for DEN-1 and DEN-2 utilized in phylogenetic and split decomposition analyses also include sequences deposited in GenBank from different regions of Brazil and of the world. Phylogenetic analyses were done using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Results for both DEN-1 and DEN-2 data are ambiguous, and support for most tree bipartitions are generally poor, suggesting that E/NS1 region does not contain enough information for recovering phylogenetic relationships among DEN-1 and DEN-2 sequences used in this study. The network graph generated in the split decomposition analysis of DEN-1 does not show evidence of grouping sequences according to country, region and clades. While the network for DEN-2 also shows ambiguities among DEN-2 sequences, it suggests that Brazilian sequences may belong to distinct subtypes of genotype III.

Separating sequential equilibrium in a Bayesian international duopoly

We consider two Cournot firms, one located in the home country and the other in the foreign country, producing substitute goods for consumption in a third country. We suppose that neither the home government nor the foreign firm know the costs of the home firm, while the foreign firm cost is common knowledge. We determine the separating sequential equilibrium outputs.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

A bayesian approach for NDT data fusion: The Saint Torcato Church case study

This paper presents a methodology based on the Bayesian data fusion techniques applied to non-destructive and destructive tests for the structural assessment of historical constructions. The aim of the methodology is to reduce the uncertainties of the parameter estimation. The Young's modulus of granite stones was chosen as an example for the present paper. The methodology considers several levels of uncertainty since the parameters of interest are considered random variables with random moments. A new concept of Trust Factor was introduced to affect the uncertainty related to each test results, translated by their standard deviation, depending on the higher or lower reliability of each test to predict a certain parameter.

Hierarchical modelling of timber reference properties using probabilistic methods: Maximum Likelihood Method, Bayesian Methods and Probability Networks

In recent decades, an increased interest has been evidenced in the research on multi-scale hierarchical modelling in the field of mechanics, and also in the field of wood products and timber engineering. One of the main motivations for hierar-chical modelling is to understand how properties, composition and structure at lower scale levels may influence and be used to predict the material properties on a macroscopic and structural engineering scale. This chapter presents the applicability of statistic and probabilistic methods, such as the Maximum Likelihood method and Bayesian methods, in the representation of timber’s mechanical properties and its inference accounting to prior information obtained in different importance scales. These methods allow to analyse distinct timber’s reference properties, such as density, bending stiffness and strength, and hierarchically consider information obtained through different non, semi or destructive tests. The basis and fundaments of the methods are described and also recommendations and limitations are discussed. The methods may be used in several contexts, however require an expert’s knowledge to assess the correct statistic fitting and define the correlation arrangement between properties.

Sistemática filogenética y biología reproductiva con énfasis en solanum y capsicum (solanaceae). Systematics, phylogeny and reproductive biology with emphasis in solanum and capsicum (solanaceae).

Muchas respuestas a preguntas básicas sobre relaciones evolutivas, ubicación sistemática y evolución de caracteres morfológicos y ecológicos pueden ser obtenidas a través de las reconstrucciones filogenéticas. Sobre este contexto se pretende encarar en este proyecto estudios de filogenia molecular, revisiones sistemáticas, biología reproductiva y citogenética en Solanáceas americanas. Se intentará resolver la delimitación específica de Solanum sect. Solanum y Geminata, y Capsicum, y establecer relaciones filogenéticas en estos grupos. Se harán revisiones analizándose caracteres vegetativos y reproductivos críticos para evaluar su variabilidad y definir su valor taxonómico; para los estudios moleculares se utilizarán los marcadores ndhF, trnT-L, trnL-F y waxy. En base a los resultados se propondrán agrupamientos y relaciones de parentesco. Además, se hará un estudio cariosistemático para caracterizar y circunscribir especies en Solanum y miembros de la tribu Physaleae, y hasta variedades y/o cultivares en Capsicum, mediante técnicas clásicas y de bandeos de fluorescencia y AgNOR e hibridación in situ fluorescente (FISH). A nivel reproductivo, se estudiará la ecofisiología en las estructuras masculinas y su incidencia en la fructificación en Capscium baccatum. El desarrollo de esta temática comprende experiencias in vivo (a campo y en laboratorio) así como estudios histológicos y químicos.Se espera avanzar en la resolución de algunos problemas: 1) la complicada delimitación de especies de los taxones en estudio; 2) las relaciones filogenéticas en algunos de ellos; 3) la falta de conocimiento de la organización genómica; 4) el origen de las especies cultivadas de Capsicum. En cuanto a la biología reproductiva, para C. baccatum se pretende avanzar en el conocimiento de variables de relevancia en la reproducción, en especial los efectos del ambiente.