909 resultados para Bayesian adaptive design


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There are many interactive media systems, including computer games and media art works, in which it is desirable for music to vary in response to changes in the environment. In this paper we will outline a range of algorithmic techniques that enable music to adapt to such changes, taking into account the need for the music to vary in its expressiveness or mood while remaining coherent and recognisable. We will discuss the approaches which we have arrived at after experience in a range of adaptive music systems over recent years, and draw upon these experiences to inform discussion of relevant considerations and to illustrate the techniques and their effect.

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Small element spacing in compact arrays results in strong mutual coupling between the array elements. A decoupling network consisting of reactive cross-coupling elements can alleviate problems associated with the coupling. Closed-form design equations for the decoupling networks of symmetrical arrays with two or three elements are presented.

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The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

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Abstract—It is easy to create new combinatorial games but more difficult to predict those that will interest human players. We examine the concept of game quality, its automated measurement through self-play simulations, and its use in the evolutionary search for new high-quality games. A general game system called Ludi is described and experiments conducted to test its ability to synthesize and evaluate new games. Results demonstrate the validity of the approach through the automated creation of novel, interesting, and publishable games. Index Terms—Aesthetics, artificial intelligence (AI), combinatorial game, evolutionary search, game design.

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This paper considers the question of designing a fully image based visual servo control for a dynamic system. The work is motivated by the ongoing development of image based visual servo control of small aerial robotic vehicles. The observed targets considered are coloured blobs on a flat surface to which the normal direction is known. The theoretical framework is directly applicable to the case of markings on a horizontal floor or landing field. The image features used are a first order spherical moment for position and an image flow measurement for velocity. A fully non-linear adaptive control design is provided that ensures global stability of the closed-loop system. © 2005 IEEE.

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This thesis explores a way to inform the architectural design process for contemporary workplace environments. It reports on both theoretical and practical outcomes through an exclusively Australian case study of a network enterprise comprised of collaborative, yet independent business entities. The internet revolution, substantial economic and cultural shifts, and an increased emphasis on lifestyle considerations have prompted a radical re-ordering of organisational relationships and the associated structures, processes, and places of doing business. The social milieu of the information age and the knowledge economy is characterised by an almost instantaneous flow of information and capital. This has culminated in a phenomenon termed by Manuel Castells as the network society, where physical locations are joined together by continuous communication and virtual connectivity. A new spatial logic encompassing redefined concepts of space and distance, and requiring a comprehensive shift in the approach to designing workplace environments for today’s adaptive, collaborative organisations in a dynamic business world, provides the backdrop for this research. Within the duality of space and an augmentation of the traditional notions of place, organisational and institutional structures pose new challenges for the design professions. The literature revealed that there has always been a mono-organisational focus in relation to workplace design strategies. The phenomenon of inter-organisational collaboration has enabled the identification of a gap in the knowledge relative to workplace design. This new context generated the formulation of a unique research construct, the NetWorkPlace™©, which captures the complexity of contemporary employment structures embracing both physical and virtual work environments and practices, and provided the basis for investigating the factors that are shaping and defining interactions within and across networked organisational settings. The methodological orientation and the methods employed follow a qualitative approach and an abductively driven strategy comprising two distinct components, a cross-sectional study of the whole of the network and a longitudinal study, focusing on a single discrete workplace site. The complexity of the context encountered dictated that a multi-dimensional investigative framework was required to be devised. The adoption of a pluralist ontology and the reconfiguration of approaches from traditional paradigms into a collaborative, trans-disciplinary, multi-method epistemology provided an explicit and replicatable method of investigation. The identification and introduction of the NetWorkPlace™© phenomenon, by necessity, spans a number of traditional disciplinary boundaries. Results confirm that in this context, architectural research, and by extension architectural practice, must engage with what other disciplines have to offer. The research concludes that no single disciplinary approach to either research or practice in this area of design can suffice. Pierre Bourdieau’s philosophy of ‘practice’ provides a framework within which the governance and technology structures, together with the mechanisms enabling the production of social order in this context, can be understood. This is achieved by applying the concepts of position and positioning to the corporate power dynamics, and integrating the conflict found to exist between enterprise standard and ferally conceived technology systems. By extending existing theory and conceptions of ‘place’ and the ‘person-environment relationship’, relevant understandings of the tensions created between Castells’ notions of the space of place and the space of flows are established. The trans-disciplinary approach adopted, and underpinned by a robust academic and practical framework, illustrates the potential for expanding the range and richness of understanding applicable to design in this context. The outcome informs workplace design by extending theoretical horizons, and by the development of a comprehensive investigative process comprising a suite of models and techniques for both architectural and interior design research and practice, collectively entitled the NetWorkPlace™© Application Framework. This work contributes to the body of knowledge within the design disciplines in substantive, theoretical, and methodological terms, whilst potentially also influencing future organisational network theories, management practices, and information and communication technology applications. The NetWorkPlace™© as reported in this thesis, constitutes a multi-dimensional concept having the capacity to deal with the fluidity and ambiguity characteristic of the network context, as both a topic of research and the way of going about it.

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This paper presents research in response to environmental concerns we face today. In a search for a better method to manage spaces and building resources consumed excessively through traditional top-down architectural solutions, the research began by speculating that the building spaces and resources can be managed by designing architectural systems that encourage a bottom-up approach. In other words, this research investigates how to design systems that encourage occupants and users of buildings to actively understand, manage and customise their own spaces. Specific attention is paid to the participation of building users because no matter how sophisticated the system is, the building will become as wasteful as conventional buildings if users cannot, or do not want to, utilise the system effectively. The research is still in its early stages. The intension of this paper is to provide a background to the issue, discuss researches and projects relevant to, but not necessarily about, architecture, and introduce a number of hypothesis and investigations to realise adaptable, participatory and sustainable environments for users.

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In this paper we present a novel distributed coding protocol for multi-user cooperative networks. The proposed distributed coding protocol exploits the existing orthogonal space-time block codes to achieve higher diversity gain by repeating the code across time and space (available relay nodes). The achievable diversity gain depends on the number of relay nodes that can fully decode the signal from the source. These relay nodes then form space-time codes to cooperatively relay to the destination using number of time slots. However, the improved diversity gain is archived at the expense of the transmission rate. The design principles of the proposed space-time distributed code and the issues related to transmission rate and diversity trade off is discussed in detail. We show that the proposed distributed space-time coding protocol out performs existing distributed codes with a variable transmission rate.

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We estimate the parameters of a stochastic process model for a macroparasite population within a host using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). The immunity of the host is an unobserved model variable and only mature macroparasites at sacrifice of the host are counted. With very limited data, process rates are inferred reasonably precisely. Modeling involves a three variable Markov process for which the observed data likelihood is computationally intractable. ABC methods are particularly useful when the likelihood is analytically or computationally intractable. The ABC algorithm we present is based on sequential Monte Carlo, is adaptive in nature, and overcomes some drawbacks of previous approaches to ABC. The algorithm is validated on a test example involving simulated data from an autologistic model before being used to infer parameters of the Markov process model for experimental data. The fitted model explains the observed extra-binomial variation in terms of a zero-one immunity variable, which has a short-lived presence in the host.

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Data collection using Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) is increasing in importance within the oceano- graphic research community. Contrary to traditional moored or static platforms, mobile sensors require intelligent planning strategies to manoeuvre through the ocean. However, the ability to navigate to high-value locations and collect data with specific scientific merit is worth the planning efforts. In this study, we examine the use of ocean model predictions to determine the locations to be visited by an AUV, and aid in planning the trajectory that the vehicle executes during the sampling mission. The objectives are: a) to provide near-real time, in situ measurements to a large-scale ocean model to increase the skill of future predictions, and b) to utilize ocean model predictions as a component in an end-to-end autonomous prediction and tasking system for aquatic, mobile sensor networks. We present an algorithm designed to generate paths for AUVs to track a dynamically evolving ocean feature utilizing ocean model predictions. This builds on previous work in this area by incorporating the predicted current velocities into the path planning to assist in solving the 3-D motion planning problem of steering an AUV between two selected locations. We present simulation results for tracking a fresh water plume by use of our algorithm. Additionally, we present experimental results from field trials that test the skill of the model used as well as the incorporation of the model predictions into an AUV trajectory planner. These results indicate a modest, but measurable, improvement in surfacing error when the model predictions are incorporated into the planner.

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In this paper, we present a control strategy design technique for an autonomous underwater vehicle based on solutions to the motion planning problem derived from differential geometric methods. The motion planning problem is motivated by the practical application of surveying the hull of a ship for implications of harbor and port security. In recent years, engineers and researchers have been collaborating on automating ship hull inspections by employing autonomous vehicles. Despite the progresses made, human intervention is still necessary at this stage. To increase the functionality of these autonomous systems, we focus on developing model-based control strategies for the survey missions around challenging regions, such as the bulbous bow region of a ship. Recent advances in differential geometry have given rise to the field of geometric control theory. This has proven to be an effective framework for control strategy design for mechanical systems, and has recently been extended to applications for underwater vehicles. Advantages of geometric control theory include the exploitation of symmetries and nonlinearities inherent to the system. Here, we examine the posed inspection problem from a path planning viewpoint, applying recently developed techniques from the field of differential geometric control theory to design the control strategies that steer the vehicle along the prescribed path. Three potential scenarios for surveying a ship?s bulbous bow region are motivated for path planning applications. For each scenario, we compute the control strategy and implement it onto a test-bed vehicle. Experimental results are analyzed and compared with theoretical predictions.